arXiv subjects

Jordi Grau-Moya

Publications and source records attributed to Jordi Grau-Moya.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Why is prompting hard? Understanding prompts on binary sequence predictors

Frontier models can be prompted or conditioned to do many tasks, but finding good prompts is not always easy, nor is understanding some performant prompts. We view prompting as finding the best conditioning sequence on a near-optimal sequence predictor. On numerous well-controlled experiments, we show that unintuitive optimal conditioning sequences can be better understood given the pretraining distribution, which is not usually available. Even using exhaustive search, reliably identifying optimal prompts for practical neural predictors can be surprisingly difficult. Popular prompting methods, such as using demonstrations from the targeted task, can be surprisingly suboptimal. Using the same empirical framework, we analyze optimal prompts on frontier models, revealing patterns similar to the binary examples and previous findings. Taken together, this work takes an initial step towards understanding optimal prompts, from a statistical and empirical perspective that complements research on frontier models.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

A Generative Model of Conspicuous Consumption and Status Signaling

Status signaling drives human behavior and the allocation of scarce resources such as mating opportunities, yet the generative mechanisms governing how specific goods, signals, or behaviors acquire prestige remain a puzzle. Classical frameworks, such as Costly Signaling Theory, treat preferences as fixed and struggle to explain how semiotic meaning changes based on context or drifts dynamically over time, occasionally reaching tipping points. In this work, we propose a computational theory of status grounded in the theory of appropriateness, positing that status symbols emerge endogenously through a feedback loop of social observation and predictive pattern completion. We validate this theory using simulations of groups of Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents in the Concordia framework. By experimentally manipulating social visibility within naturalistic agent daily routines, we demonstrate that social interactions transform functional demand into status-seeking behavior. We observe the emergence of price run-ups and positive price elasticity (Veblen effects) for both real-world luxury items and procedurally generated synthetic goods, ruling out pretraining bias as the sole driver. Furthermore, we demonstrate that "influencer" agents can drive the endogenous formation of distinct subcultures through targeted sanctioning, and find that similar social influence effects generalize to non-monetary signaling behaviors. This work provides a generative bridge between micro-level cognition and macro-level economic and sociological phenomena, offering a new methodology for forecasting how cultural conventions emerge from interaction.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Understanding Prompt Tuning and In-Context Learning via Meta-Learning

Prompting is one of the main ways to adapt a pretrained model to target tasks. Besides manually constructing prompts, many prompt optimization methods have been proposed in the literature. Method development is mainly empirically driven, with less emphasis on a conceptual understanding of prompting. In this paper we discuss how optimal prompting can be understood through a Bayesian view, which also implies some fundamental limitations of prompting that can only be overcome by tuning weights. The paper explains in detail how meta-trained neural networks behave as Bayesian predictors over the pretraining distribution, whose hallmark feature is rapid in-context adaptation. Optimal prompting can be studied formally as conditioning these Bayesian predictors, yielding criteria for target tasks where optimal prompting is and is not possible. We support the theory with educational experiments on LSTMs and Transformers, where we compare different versions of prefix-tuning and different weight-tuning methods. We also confirm that soft prefixes, which are sequences of real-valued vectors outside the token alphabet, can lead to very effective prompts for trained and even untrained networks by manipulating activations in ways that are not achievable by hard tokens. This adds an important mechanistic aspect beyond the conceptual Bayesian theory.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Code World Models for General Game Playing

Large Language Models (LLMs) reasoning abilities are increasingly being applied to classical board and card games, but the dominant approach -- involving prompting for direct move generation -- has significant drawbacks. It relies on the model's implicit fragile pattern-matching capabilities, leading to frequent illegal moves and strategically shallow play. Here we introduce an alternative approach: We use the LLM to translate natural language rules and game trajectories into a formal, executable world model represented as Python code. This generated model -- comprising functions for state transition, legal move enumeration, and termination checks -- serves as a verifiable simulation engine for high-performance planning algorithms like Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS). In addition, we prompt the LLM to generate heuristic value functions (to make MCTS more efficient), and inference functions (to estimate hidden states in imperfect information games). Our method offers three distinct advantages compared to directly using the LLM as a policy: (1) Verifiability: The generated CWM serves as a formal specification of the game's rules, allowing planners to algorithmically enumerate valid actions and avoid illegal moves, contingent on the correctness of the synthesized model; (2) Strategic Depth: We combine LLM semantic understanding with the deep search power of classical planners; and (3) Generalization: We direct the LLM to focus on the meta-task of data-to-code translation, enabling it to adapt to new games more easily. We evaluate our agent on 10 different games, of which 4 are novel and created for this paper. 5 of the games are fully observed (perfect information), and 5 are partially observed (imperfect information). We find that our method outperforms or matches Gemini 2.5 Pro in 9 out of the 10 considered games.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

LLMs are Greedy Agents: Effects of RL Fine-tuning on Decision-Making Abilities

The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked interest in various agentic applications. A key hypothesis is that LLMs, leveraging common sense and Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning, can effectively explore and efficiently solve complex domains. However, LLM agents have been found to suffer from sub-optimal exploration and the knowing-doing gap, the inability to effectively act on knowledge present in the model. In this work, we systematically study why LLMs perform sub-optimally in decision-making scenarios. In particular, we closely examine three prevalent failure modes: greediness, frequency bias, and the knowing-doing gap. We propose mitigation of these shortcomings by fine-tuning via Reinforcement Learning (RL) on self-generated CoT rationales. Our experiments across multi-armed bandits, contextual bandits, and Tic-tac-toe, demonstrate that RL fine-tuning enhances the decision-making abilities of LLMs by increasing exploration and narrowing the knowing-doing gap. Finally, we study both classic exploration mechanisms, such as $ε$-greedy, and LLM-specific approaches, such as self-correction and self-consistency, to enable more effective fine-tuning of LLMs for decision-making.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Partition Tree Weighting for Non-Stationary Stochastic Bandits

This paper considers a generalisation of universal source coding for interaction data, namely data streams that have actions interleaved with observations. Our goal will be to construct a coding distribution that is both universal \emph{and} can be used as a control policy. Allowing for action generation needs careful treatment, as naive approaches which do not distinguish between actions and observations run into the self-delusion problem in universal settings. We showcase our perspective in the context of the challenging non-stationary stochastic Bernoulli bandit problem. Our main contribution is an efficient and high performing algorithm for this problem that generalises the Partition Tree Weighting universal source coding technique for passive prediction to the control setting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Amortized Planning with Large-Scale Transformers: A Case Study on Chess

This paper uses chess, a landmark planning problem in AI, to assess transformers' performance on a planning task where memorization is futile $\unicode{x2013}$ even at a large scale. To this end, we release ChessBench, a large-scale benchmark dataset of 10 million chess games with legal move and value annotations (15 billion data points) provided by Stockfish 16, the state-of-the-art chess engine. We train transformers with up to 270 million parameters on ChessBench via supervised learning and perform extensive ablations to assess the impact of dataset size, model size, architecture type, and different prediction targets (state-values, action-values, and behavioral cloning). Our largest models learn to predict action-values for novel boards quite accurately, implying highly non-trivial generalization. Despite performing no explicit search, our resulting chess policy solves challenging chess puzzles and achieves a surprisingly strong Lichess blitz Elo of 2895 against humans (grandmaster level). We also compare to Leela Chess Zero and AlphaZero (trained without supervision via self-play) with and without search. We show that, although a remarkably good approximation of Stockfish's search-based algorithm can be distilled into large-scale transformers via supervised learning, perfect distillation is still beyond reach, thus making ChessBench well-suited for future research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Language Modeling Is Compression

It has long been established that predictive models can be transformed into lossless compressors and vice versa. Incidentally, in recent years, the machine learning community has focused on training increasingly large and powerful self-supervised (language) models. Since these large language models exhibit impressive predictive capabilities, they are well-positioned to be strong compressors. In this work, we advocate for viewing the prediction problem through the lens of compression and evaluate the compression capabilities of large (foundation) models. We show that large language models are powerful general-purpose predictors and that the compression viewpoint provides novel insights into scaling laws, tokenization, and in-context learning. For example, Chinchilla 70B, while trained primarily on text, compresses ImageNet patches to 43.4% and LibriSpeech samples to 16.4% of their raw size, beating domain-specific compressors like PNG (58.5%) or FLAC (30.3%), respectively. Finally, we show that the prediction-compression equivalence allows us to use any compressor (like gzip) to build a conditional generative model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Learning Universal Predictors

Meta-learning has emerged as a powerful approach to train neural networks to learn new tasks quickly from limited data. Broad exposure to different tasks leads to versatile representations enabling general problem solving. But, what are the limits of meta-learning? In this work, we explore the potential of amortizing the most powerful universal predictor, namely Solomonoff Induction (SI), into neural networks via leveraging meta-learning to its limits. We use Universal Turing Machines (UTMs) to generate training data used to expose networks to a broad range of patterns. We provide theoretical analysis of the UTM data generation processes and meta-training protocols. We conduct comprehensive experiments with neural architectures (e.g. LSTMs, Transformers) and algorithmic data generators of varying complexity and universality. Our results suggest that UTM data is a valuable resource for meta-learning, and that it can be used to train neural networks capable of learning universal prediction strategies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Randomized Positional Encodings Boost Length Generalization of Transformers

Transformers have impressive generalization capabilities on tasks with a fixed context length. However, they fail to generalize to sequences of arbitrary length, even for seemingly simple tasks such as duplicating a string. Moreover, simply training on longer sequences is inefficient due to the quadratic computation complexity of the global attention mechanism. In this work, we demonstrate that this failure mode is linked to positional encodings being out-of-distribution for longer sequences (even for relative encodings) and introduce a novel family of positional encodings that can overcome this problem. Concretely, our randomized positional encoding scheme simulates the positions of longer sequences and randomly selects an ordered subset to fit the sequence's length. Our large-scale empirical evaluation of 6000 models across 15 algorithmic reasoning tasks shows that our method allows Transformers to generalize to sequences of unseen length (increasing test accuracy by 12.0% on average).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Memory-Based Meta-Learning on Non-Stationary Distributions

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Neural Networks and the Chomsky Hierarchy

Reliable generalization lies at the heart of safe ML and AI. However, understanding when and how neural networks generalize remains one of the most important unsolved problems in the field. In this work, we conduct an extensive empirical study (20'910 models, 15 tasks) to investigate whether insights from the theory of computation can predict the limits of neural network generalization in practice. We demonstrate that grouping tasks according to the Chomsky hierarchy allows us to forecast whether certain architectures will be able to generalize to out-of-distribution inputs. This includes negative results where even extensive amounts of data and training time never lead to any non-trivial generalization, despite models having sufficient capacity to fit the training data perfectly. Our results show that, for our subset of tasks, RNNs and Transformers fail to generalize on non-regular tasks, LSTMs can solve regular and counter-language tasks, and only networks augmented with structured memory (such as a stack or memory tape) can successfully generalize on context-free and context-sensitive tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Beyond Bayes-optimality: meta-learning what you know you don't know

Meta-training agents with memory has been shown to culminate in Bayes-optimal agents, which casts Bayes-optimality as the implicit solution to a numerical optimization problem rather than an explicit modeling assumption. Bayes-optimal agents are risk-neutral, since they solely attune to the expected return, and ambiguity-neutral, since they act in new situations as if the uncertainty were known. This is in contrast to risk-sensitive agents, which additionally exploit the higher-order moments of the return, and ambiguity-sensitive agents, which act differently when recognizing situations in which they lack knowledge. Humans are also known to be averse to ambiguity and sensitive to risk in ways that aren't Bayes-optimal, indicating that such sensitivity can confer advantages, especially in safety-critical situations. How can we extend the meta-learning protocol to generate risk- and ambiguity-sensitive agents? The goal of this work is to fill this gap in the literature by showing that risk- and ambiguity-sensitivity also emerge as the result of an optimization problem using modified meta-training algorithms, which manipulate the experience-generation process of the learner. We empirically test our proposed meta-training algorithms on agents exposed to foundational classes of decision-making experiments and demonstrate that they become sensitive to risk and ambiguity.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Your Policy Regularizer is Secretly an Adversary

Policy regularization methods such as maximum entropy regularization are widely used in reinforcement learning to improve the robustness of a learned policy. In this paper, we show how this robustness arises from hedging against worst-case perturbations of the reward function, which are chosen from a limited set by an imagined adversary. Using convex duality, we characterize this robust set of adversarial reward perturbations under KL and alpha-divergence regularization, which includes Shannon and Tsallis entropy regularization as special cases. Importantly, generalization guarantees can be given within this robust set. We provide detailed discussion of the worst-case reward perturbations, and present intuitive empirical examples to illustrate this robustness and its relationship with generalization. Finally, we discuss how our analysis complements and extends previous results on adversarial reward robustness and path consistency optimality conditions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Model-Free Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning

We extend temporal-difference (TD) learning in order to obtain risk-sensitive, model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. This extension can be regarded as modification of the Rescorla-Wagner rule, where the (sigmoidal) stimulus is taken to be either the event of over- or underestimating the TD target. As a result, one obtains a stochastic approximation rule for estimating the free energy from i.i.d. samples generated by a Gaussian distribution with unknown mean and variance. Since the Gaussian free energy is known to be a certainty-equivalent sensitive to the mean and the variance, the learning rule has applications in risk-sensitive decision-making.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Shaking the foundations: delusions in sequence models for interaction and control

The recent phenomenal success of language models has reinvigorated machine learning research, and large sequence models such as transformers are being applied to a variety of domains. One important problem class that has remained relatively elusive however is purposeful adaptive behavior. Currently there is a common perception that sequence models "lack the understanding of the cause and effect of their actions" leading them to draw incorrect inferences due to auto-suggestive delusions. In this report we explain where this mismatch originates, and show that it can be resolved by treating actions as causal interventions. Finally, we show that in supervised learning, one can teach a system to condition or intervene on data by training with factual and counterfactual error signals respectively.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Bellman: A Toolbox for Model-Based Reinforcement Learning in TensorFlow

In the past decade, model-free reinforcement learning (RL) has provided solutions to challenging domains such as robotics. Model-based RL shows the prospect of being more sample-efficient than model-free methods in terms of agent-environment interactions, because the model enables to extrapolate to unseen situations. In the more recent past, model-based methods have shown superior results compared to model-free methods in some challenging domains with non-linear state transitions. At the same time, it has become apparent that RL is not market-ready yet and that many real-world applications are going to require model-based approaches, because model-free methods are too sample-inefficient and show poor performance in early stages of training. The latter is particularly important in industry, e.g. in production systems that directly impact a company's revenue. This demonstrates the necessity for a toolbox to push the boundaries for model-based RL. While there is a plethora of toolboxes for model-free RL, model-based RL has received little attention in terms of toolbox development. Bellman aims to fill this gap and introduces the first thoroughly designed and tested model-based RL toolbox using state-of-the-art software engineering practices. Our modular approach enables to combine a wide range of environment models with generic model-based agent classes that recover state-of-the-art algorithms. We also provide an experiment harness to compare both model-free and model-based agents in a systematic fashion w.r.t. user-defined evaluation metrics (e.g. cumulative reward). This paves the way for new research directions, e.g. investigating uncertainty-aware environment models that are not necessarily neural-network-based, or developing algorithms to solve industrially-motivated benchmarks that share characteristics with real-world problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Causal Analysis of Agent Behavior for AI Safety

As machine learning systems become more powerful they also become increasingly unpredictable and opaque. Yet, finding human-understandable explanations of how they work is essential for their safe deployment. This technical report illustrates a methodology for investigating the causal mechanisms that drive the behaviour of artificial agents. Six use cases are covered, each addressing a typical question an analyst might ask about an agent. In particular, we show that each question cannot be addressed by pure observation alone, but instead requires conducting experiments with systematically chosen manipulations so as to generate the correct causal evidence.

cs.AI↗