arXiv subjects

Joris Van den Bergh

Publications and source records attributed to Joris Van den Bergh.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Evaluating the Prediction of Wind Power Ramping Events in the Belgian Offshore Zone

Evaluations are presented for the prediction of wind power ramping events in the Belgian Offshore Zone. Two models from the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium are verified: the operational ALARO-4km and its version with Wind Farm Parameterization (WFP). Power predictions are produced using power curves and machine learning (ML). As standard metrics such as MAE are insufficient for evaluating ramps, the proposed framework incorporates time and power buffers, enabling a flexible assessment that tolerates minor errors. Results indicate that WFP models enhance ramping prediction skill, while ML provides more balanced forecasts by reducing both misses and false alarms. A Ramp Alignment Score is also introduced to quantify temporal errors by forecast lead time, confirming that WFP models yield smaller average timing errors. Moreover, the framework reveals that severe precipitation is a strong indicator of large, predictable ramps, whereas lighter precipitation is associated with greater forecast errors.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Self-attentive Transformer for Fast and Accurate Postprocessing of Temperature and Wind Speed Forecasts

Current postprocessing techniques often require separate models for each lead time and disregard possible inter-ensemble relationships by either correcting each member separately or by employing distributional approaches. In this work, we tackle these shortcomings with an innovative, fast and accurate Transformer which postprocesses each ensemble member individually while allowing information exchange across variables, spatial dimensions and lead times by means of multi-headed self-attention. Weather forecasts are postprocessed over 20 lead times simultaneously while including up to fifteen meteorological predictors. We use the EUPPBench dataset for training which contains ensemble predictions from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts' integrated forecasting system alongside corresponding observations. The work presented here is the first to postprocess the ten and one hundred-meter wind speed forecasts within this benchmark dataset, while also correcting two-meter temperature. Our approach significantly improves the original forecasts, as measured by the CRPS, with 16.5\% for two-meter temperature, 10\% for ten-meter wind speed and 9\% for one hundred-meter wind speed, outperforming a classical member-by-member approach employed as a competitive benchmark. Furthermore, being up to six times faster, it fulfills the demand for rapid operational weather forecasts in various downstream applications, including renewable energy forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Statistical Postprocessing for Weather Forecasts -- Review, Challenges and Avenues in a Big Data World

Statistical postprocessing techniques are nowadays key components of the forecasting suites in many National Meteorological Services (NMS), with for most of them, the objective of correcting the impact of different types of errors on the forecasts. The final aim is to provide optimal, automated, seamless forecasts for end users. Many techniques are now flourishing in the statistical, meteorological, climatological, hydrological, and engineering communities. The methods range in complexity from simple bias corrections to very sophisticated distribution-adjusting techniques that incorporate correlations among the prognostic variables. The paper is an attempt to summarize the main activities going on this area from theoretical developments to operational applications, with a focus on the current challenges and potential avenues in the field. Among these challenges is the shift in NMS towards running ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems at the kilometer scale that produce very large datasets and require high-density high-quality observations; the necessity to preserve space time correlation of high-dimensional corrected fields; the need to reduce the impact of model changes affecting the parameters of the corrections; the necessity for techniques to merge different types of forecasts and ensembles with different behaviors; and finally the ability to transfer research on statistical postprocessing to operations. Potential new avenues will also be discussed.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2005

D-term cosmic strings from N=2 Supergravity

We describe new half-BPS cosmic string solutions in N=2, d=4 supergravity coupled to one vector multiplet and one hypermultiplet. They are closely related to D-term strings in N=1 supergravity. Fields of the N=2 theory that are frozen in the solution contribute to the triplet moment map of the quaternionic isometries and leave their trace in N=1 as a constant Fayet-Iliopoulos term. The choice of U(1) gauging and of special geometry are crucial. The construction gives rise to a non-minimal Kaehler potential and can be generalized to higher dimensional quaternionic-Kaehler manifolds.

hep-th↗

arXiv2004

O3/O7 Orientifold Truncations and Very Special Quaternionic-Kaehler Geometry

We study the orientifold truncation that arises when compactifying type II string theory on Calabi-Yau orientifolds with O3/O7-planes, in the context of supergravity. We look at the N=2 to N=1 reduction of the hypermultiplet sector of N=2 supergravity under the truncation, for the case of very special quaternionic-Kaehler target space geometry. We explicitly verify the Kaehler structure of the truncated spaces, and we study the truncated isometry algebra. For symmetric special quaternionic spaces, we give a complete overview of the spaces one finds after truncation. We also find new examples of dual Kaehler spaces, that give rise to flat potentials in N=1 supergravity.

hep-th↗