arXiv subjects

José D. Szezech Jr.

Publications and source records attributed to José D. Szezech Jr..

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Impact of periodic vaccination in SEIRS seasonal model

We study three different strategies of vaccination in a SEIRS (Susceptible--Exposed--Infected--Recovered--Susceptible) seasonal forced model, which are: ($i$) continuous vaccination; ($ii$) periodic short time localized vaccination and ($iii$) periodic pulsed width campaign. Considering the first strategy, we obtain an expression for the basic reproduction number and infer a minimum vaccination rate necessary to ensure the stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) solution. In the second strategy, the short duration pulses are added to a constant baseline vaccination rate. The pulse is applied according to the seasonal forcing phases. The best outcome is obtained by locating the intensive immunization at inflection of the transmissivity curve. There, a vaccination rate of $44.4\%$ of susceptible individuals is enough to ensure DFE. For the third vaccination proposal, additionally to the amplitude, the pulses have a prolonged time width. We obtain a non-linear relationship between vaccination rates and the duration of the campaign. Our simulations show that the baseline rates, as well as the pulse duration, can substantially improve the vaccination campaign effectiveness. These findings are in agreement with our analytical expression. We show a relationship between the vaccination parameters and the accumulated number of infected individuals, over the years and show the relevance of the immunisation campaign annual reaching for controlling the infection spreading. Regarding the dynamical behaviour of the model, our simulations shows that chaotic and periodic solutions, as well as bi-stable regions, depend on the vaccination parameters range.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2023

A nontwist field line mapping in a tokamak with ergodic magnetic limiter

For tokamaks with uniform magnetic shear, Martin and Taylor have proposed a symplectic map has been used to describe the magnetic field lines at the plasma edge perturbed by an ergodic magnetic limiter. We propose an analytical magnetic field line map, based on the Martin-Taylor map, for a tokamak with arbitrary safety factor profile. With the inclusion of a non-monotonic profile, we obtain a nontwist map which presents the characteristic properties of degenerate systems, as the twin islands scenario, the shearless curve and separatrix reconnection. We estimate the width of the islands and describe their changes of shape for large values of the limiter current. From our numerical simulations about the shearless curve, we show that its position and aspect depend on the control parameters.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2023

Multistability and chaos in SEIRS epidemic model with a periodic time-dependent transmission rate

In this work, we study the dynamics of a SEIRS epidemic model with a periodic time-dependent transmission rate. Emphasizing the influence of the seasonality frequency on the system dynamics, we analyze the largest Lyapunov exponent along parameter planes finding large chaotic regions. Furthermore, in some ranges there are shrimp-like periodic strutures. We highlight the system multistability, identifying the coexistence of periodic orbits for the same parameter values, with the infections maximum distinguishing by up one order of magnitude, depending only on the initial conditions. In this case, the basins of attraction has self-similarity. Parametric configurations, for which both periodic and non-periodic orbits occur, cover $13.20\%$ of the evaluated range. We also identified the coexistence of periodic and chaotic attractors with different maxima of infectious cases, where the periodic scenario peak reaching approximately $50\%$ higher than the chaotic one.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2023

Fractional dynamics and recurrence analysis in cancer model

In this work, we analyze the effects of fractional derivatives in the chaotic dynamics of a cancer model. We begin by studying the dynamics of a standard model, {\it i.e.}, with integer derivatives. We study the dynamical behavior by means of the bifurcation diagram, Lyapunov exponents, and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA), such as the recurrence rate (RR), the determinism (DET), and the recurrence time entropy (RTE). We find a high correlation coefficient between the Lyapunov exponents and RTE. Our simulations suggest that the tumor growth parameter ($ρ_1$) is associated with a chaotic regime. Our results suggest a high correlation between the largest Lyapunov exponents and RTE. After understanding the dynamics of the model in the standard formulation, we extend our results by considering fractional operators. We fix the parameters in the chaotic regime and investigate the effects of the fractional order. We demonstrate how fractional dynamics can be properly characterized using RQA measures, which offer the advantage of not requiring knowledge of the fractional Jacobian matrix. We find that the chaotic motion is suppressed as $α$ decreases, and the system becomes periodic for $α\lessapprox 0.9966$. We observe limit cycles for $α\in (0.9966,0.899)$ and fixed points for $α<0.899$. The fixed point is determined analytically for the considered parameters. Finally, we discover that these dynamics are separated by an exponential relationship between $α$ and $ρ_1$. Also, the transition depends on a supper transient which obeys the same relationship.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2023

Stickiness and recurrence plots: an entropy-based approach

The stickiness effect is a fundamental feature of quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems. We propose the use of an entropy-based measure of the recurrence plots (RP), namely, the entropy of the distribution of the recurrence times (estimated from the RP), to characterize the dynamics of a typical quasi-integrable Hamiltonian system with coexisting regular and chaotic regions. We show that the recurrence time entropy (RTE) is positively correlated to the largest Lyapunov exponent, with a high correlation coefficient. We obtain a multi-modal distribution of the finite-time RTE and find that each mode corresponds to the motion around islands of different hierarchical levels.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2022

Unpredictability in seasonal infectious diseases spread

In this work, we study the unpredictability of seasonal infectious diseases considering a SEIRS model with seasonal forcing. To investigate the dynamical behaviour, we compute bifurcation diagrams type hysteresis and their respective Lyapunov exponents. Our results from bifurcations and the largest Lyapunov exponent show bistable dynamics for all the parameters of the model. Choosing the inverse of latent period as control parameter, over 70% of the interval comprises the coexistence of periodic and chaotic attractors, bistable dynamics. Despite the competition between these attractors, the chaotic ones are preferred. The bistability occurs in two wide regions. One of these regions is limited by periodic attractors, while periodic and chaotic attractors bound the other. As the boundary of the second bistable region is composed of periodic and chaotic attractors, it is possible to interpret these critical points as tipping points. In other words, depending on the latent period, a periodic attractor (predictability) can evolve to a chaotic attractor (unpredictability). Therefore, we show that unpredictability is associated with bistable dynamics preferably chaotic, and, furthermore, there is a tipping point associated with unpredictable dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Anomalous transport induced by nonhyperbolicity

In this letter we study how deterministic features presented by a system can be used to perform direct transport in a {\it quasi}-symmetric potential and weak dissipative system. We show that the presence of nonhyperbolic regions around acceleration areas of the phase space plays an important role in the acceleration of particles giving rise to direct transport in the system. Such effect can be observed for a large interval of the weak asymmetric potential parameter allowing the possibility to obtain useful work from unbiased nonequilibrium fluctuation in real systems even in a presence of a {\it quasi}-symmetric potential.

nlin.CD↗