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José Fonseca

Publications and source records attributed to José Fonseca.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Cosmology from Nx2pt Analyses of SKAO Wide-Area Surveys

SKAO surveys will provide an unprecedented window into the large-scale structure of the universe through HI 21cm galaxy and intensity mapping surveys, and radio continuum surveys. We present forecasts for the cosmological constraining power of ``$N\times2\mathrm{pt}$'' analyses -- which combine galaxy clustering, galaxy weak lensing, galaxy-galaxy lensing signals and 21cm Intensity Maps. By assuming cosmology surveys from an SKA-Mid AA4, we show that such an $N\times2\mathrm{pt}$ analysis will be able to deliver measurements of $\sim1\%$ precision on $Λ$CDM cosmological parameters. We also explore dynamical dark energy in the $w_0, w_a$ model, the sum of neutrino masses $\rm M_ν$, and the background curvature $Ω_{\rm k}$.

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Beyond ΛCDM with the SKA Observatory -- II: Unveiling the Secrets of the Early Universe

The origins of the universe remain one of the biggest mysteries in modern cosmology. While the Planck satellite has provided a wealth of information about the early universe, there is still much to be discovered. The Square Kilometre Array Observatory (SKAO) offers a unique opportunity to probe the universe's infancy, going beyond the current limitations of our knowledge. By measuring the power spectrum of biased tracers of the dark matter distribution on the largest cosmological scales and exploring beyond 2-point statistics, SKAO will enable us to refine our understanding of the primordial universe, including the shape of the inflationary power spectrum and the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity. In this chapter we will review recent works looking at the potential of SKAO's surveys, and how synergies with other surveys can revolutionize our understanding of the origins of the cosmos.

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Cosmology with HI Intensity Mapping

The redshifted spectral emission from neutral hydrogen (HI) at rest wavelength 21 cm can be used as a tracer of large-scale structure and its evolution. Within the HI intensity mapping method, sufficient signal-to-noise is achieved by integrating the line emission within large voxels over a wide sky area and line of sight depth which allows access to the largest scales of the matter distribution. The resulting tomographic maps usually feature low angular and high redshift resolution. The SKAO will be able to conduct HI intensity mapping experiments observing up to 20,000 square degrees over a wide range of redshifts. For SKA-Mid, we will employ the array in a fast-scanning single-dish mode using Band 1 and 2 to access 0<z<3, mapping an enormous volume with fast survey speed, allowing for the possibility of a commensal survey producing high angular resolution maps via the on-the-fly imaging of the visibilities. For SKA-Low, we will focus on deep observations to detect the HI signal in a frequency band matching 3<z<6. In this chapter, we will give an overview of HI intensity mapping with the SKAO, including an outline of planned surveys, a discussion of observational challenges, and methodology for power spectrum methodology and forecasts. We present predictions on the constraining power on LambdaCDM cosmology from HI intensity mapping data via power spectrum, and other observables such as bi-spectrum and HI stacking. We also demonstrate the synergy power of HI intensity mapping with other cosmological surveys.

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meer21cm: an Analysis Pipeline and Comprehensive Toolkit for HI Intensity Mapping

We present meer21cm, a comprehensive python package for cosmological data analysis of single-dish HI intensity mapping surveys. This package is simple to use, with a modularised code structure designed for interactive usage. meer21cm is designed for data analysis, with particular focus on the UHF-band observation of MeerKAT Large Area Synoptic Survey (MeerKLASS). We explicitly impose meer21cm to be survey-oriented, ensuring consistent modelling of observational effects in the clustering power spectrum with the survey specifications and data analysis choices. meer21cm covers a large range of data analysis procedures post calibration, including data read-in, foreground cleaning, power spectrum estimation, mock simulation, transfer function corrections and parameter inference. It handles both meer21cm intensity maps and overlapping galaxy catalogues, allowing for multi-tracer and cross-correlation analysis between MeerKLASS and optical galaxy surveys. Tested with a simulated survey of ten $750\,$deg$^2$ sky patches in the redshift sub-band $0.6\,{<}\,z\,{<}\,0.8$, the meer21cm pipeline achieves per-cent accuracy in the power spectrum estimation for $k \in [0.02, 0.2]\,{h{\rm Mpc}^{-1}}$, with deviations $\lesssim 0.5σ$ between the mock and the model power spectra, where $σ$ is the signal variance. The meer21cm package is publicly available and easy to install, with a comprehensive documentation website at https://meer21cm.readthedocs.io

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Cosmology from HI galaxy surveys with the SKA

The 21cm line from neutral hydrogen is expected to be a ubiquitous (albeit faint) tracer of galaxies in the late Universe. With SKAO-MID, large wide-field surveys of several million HI-containing galaxies will become feasible, resulting in catalogues of sufficient size to measure large-scale structure observables such as baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions. While optical galaxy surveys over comparable areas are generally deeper, radio surveys of this kind have a number of other advantages, such as broader sampling of the halo mass function and the possibility of measuring luminosity distances via the Tully-Fisher relation. In this chapter, we provide predictions for the galaxy number counts versus redshift that will be achievable with a wide-field HI galaxy survey on SKAO-MID, along with corresponding forecasts for cosmological observables. Given the substantial uncertainty in the HI mass function with redshift, we bracket our predictions using a handful of different modelling methods.

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Cosmology with Intensity Mapping via Statistics Beyond the Power Spectrum in the SKAO Era

The cosmological distribution of neutral hydrogen (HI) during the post-reionization era is highly non-Gaussian due to the underlying non-linear structure formation, complex galaxy biasing, and potential primordial non-Gaussianity. One needs higher-order (beyond two-point) statistics to maximally extract the non-Gaussian information out of the 21-cm intensity maps. This chapter summarizes the potential of several higher-order statistics, including voxel intensity distribution, emission line stacking, probability density functions, $\ell_1$-norm, bispectrum, and various marked statistics. Additionally, image-based morphological descriptors, such as the Largest Cluster Statistic, local dimensions, and Minkowski functionals, etc., can potentially characterize the morphology and geometry of the cosmic web encoded in the 21-cm intensity maps. This chapter presents forecasts of the detectability of these higher-order statistics in the context of the future SKAO observations. These forecasts incorporate instrumental noise, observational effects, and, in some cases, foreground removal in their analyses. With its unprecedented sensitivity, the future SKAO 21-cm observations will enable us to measure these higher-order statistics more precisely, possibly helping to break degeneracies between astrophysical and cosmological parameters, and maximizing the science outcome from these surveys.

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Cosmology with Multi-Wavelength Line Intensity Mapping Synergies in the SKAO Era

Line intensity mapping (LIM) has emerged as a powerful tool for surveying the large-scale structure of the Universe across cosmic time by measuring spatial fluctuations in the cumulative emission of spectral lines from unresolved sources or the intergalactic medium. Besides the most abundant 21-cm hyperfine line of neutral hydrogen, there are bright far-infrared fine-structure lines like [CII] 158 $μ$m, [OIII] 88 $μ$m, [NII] 122/205 $μ$m, and [OI] 63 $μ$m, as well as mid-/high-$J$ CO rotational transitions, hydrogen Ly$α$ and H$α$ as potential LIM probes. A key opportunity lies in combining and cross-correlating 21-cm intensity maps from SKAO with other line intensity maps, targeted by a range of ongoing and forthcoming LIM experiments that probe overlapping cosmic volumes. Cross-correlation between 21-cm maps and other line tracers mitigates uncorrelated systematics and enhances sensitivity to the underlying matter distribution, while multi-line analyses help disentangle cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Beyond cross-power spectra, higher-order and morphological statistics -- such as cross-bispectra, marked correlations, and morphological measures -- capture non-Gaussian features and the environmental dependence of structure formation. This chapter explores the synergies that can be achieved by combining SKAO observations with other line-intensity mapping experiments, demonstrating how such joint analyses can unlock new insights into galaxy evolution and cosmology.

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Single-dish HI Intensity Mapping with the SKAO: Precursor Progress with MeerKAT's Large Area Synoptic Survey (MeerKLASS)

Using the SKAO to map the intensity of neutral hydrogen's 21cm emission line will be a golden opportunity to constrain models of cosmology. To access the largest cosmological scales, wide-sky surveys should ideally reach thousands of square degrees, requiring SKA-Mid's dishes to scan the sky in auto-correlation mode, so-called single-dish observations. In this chapter, we overview the latest results from MeerKAT's Large Area Synoptic Survey (MeerKLASS), which has been pioneering this single-dish observing strategy, and motivating its continuation with the SKA-Mid AA4 deployment. MeerKLASS, operating on the same Karoo site where the SKA-Mid is being built, has now achieved multiple cosmological detections from single-dish observations, including high-significance cross-correlations with optical galaxy surveys and continually improving measurements of the HI auto-power spectrum. These results demonstrate that stable calibration, effective foreground mitigation, and statistical recovery of cosmological signal are all achievable with a large multi-dish telescope in total-power mode. The success of MeerKLASS therefore validates the observational strategies required for SKA-Mid and marks a key milestone in demonstrating the viability of single-dish HI intensity mapping for cosmology. Looking ahead, SKA-Mid's increased sensitivity and Band 1 coverage (350-1050 MHz) will allow the same methodology to probe redshifts up to $z\,{\sim}\,3$, mapping volumes several orders of magnitude larger than currently accessible. The techniques refined with MeerKLASS thus form the operational and scientific foundation for a large portion of the SKAO's cosmology programme.

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Cosmology from Synergies Between SKAO Surveys and Gravitational Wave Observations

Both radio surveys and gravitational wave observations have the potential to probe unprecedented volumes in the Universe with systematics independent of existing cosmological probes. This gives them the potential, especially in combination, to solve some of the outstanding issues in cosmology. Here we show how the use of radio observations as electromagnetic signals tracing large scale structures can be used to provide information on gravitational wave \textit{standard sirens}. By providing a way to link luminosity distance to redshift, this combination can constrain the expansion history of the Universe, and provide information on the Hubble constant ($H_0$). We describe the utility of SKA-Mid neutral hydrogen (\hi) intensity maps, \hi\ galaxy redshift surveys, and continuum galaxy surveys compared to and in conjunction with large contemporaneous optical surveys. Such radio tracers provide a unique, large volume and high redshift information for gravitational wave source, capable of probing effectively the expansion history of the Universe $H(z)$.

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On the robustness of the angular homogeneity scale $θ_H$: a comparative analysis of computational approaches

The assumption of large-scale homogeneity is a cornerstone of modern cosmology and underlies the validity of the FLRW framework. Testing the scale at which the Universe transitions to homogeneity remains a key observational challenge, particularly with the increasing precision of galaxy surveys. We aim to assess the robustness of the angular homogeneity scale, $θ_H$, by systematically comparing different computational approaches used in its estimation and by quantifying the impact of methodological choices and physical clustering scales. We analyse mock galaxy catalogues from the MICE Grand Challenge simulation. The angular fractal dimension $D_2(θ_H)$ is computed using the Landy-Szalay estimator and direct pair-counting methods. We implement different approaches, including symbolic regression, to model $D_2(θ_H)$ and determine $θ_H$. Uncertainties are estimated using resampling techniques and alternative parametric error propagation methods. We find that the estimation of $θ_H$ is sensitive to methodological choices in the analysis, such as survey area, redshift bin, numerical implementation and fitting strategy. While its redshift evolution is robust, its absolute value is sensitive to both modelling choices and the presence of local clustering features. Our results highlight the importance of methodological systematics in homogeneity studies, showing that the determination of $θ_H$ depends not only on the data, but also on the adopted analysis strategy. Flexible approaches such as symbolic regression provide a useful framework to model these effects, but also emphasize the need for careful modelling and survey design. This has important implications for future large-scale structure analyses aiming to test the Cosmological Principle with high precision.

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Exploring future synergies for large-scale structure between gravitational waves and radio sources

Future third-generation gravitational wave detectors like the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE) are expected to detect millions of binary black hole (BBH) mergers. Alongside these advances, upcoming radio surveys, such as the Square Kilometer Array Observatory (SKAO) will provide new sets of cosmological tracers. These include mapping the large-scale distribution of neutral hydrogen (\hi) using intensity mapping (IM) and \hi\ and radio continuum galaxies. In this work, we will investigate synergies between gravitational waves (GW) and radio tracers through a multi-tracer approach. We first forecast the precision on the clustering bias of GWs by cross-correlating data from an ET-like detector with an SKAO IM survey. Our results indicate that this approach can constrain the GW clustering bias to within $2\%$ up to $z = 2.5$. Additionally, we explore the potential of a triple cross-correlation using GWs, IM, and photometric galaxies from a survey like the Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). This multi-tracer method enhances constraints on the magnification lensing effect, achieving percent-level precision, and allows for a measurement of the Doppler effect with approximately $15\%$ uncertainty. Furthermore we show for the first time that this method could achieve the precision required to measure subdominant gravitational potential contributions to the relativistic corrections, which had thought to be below cosmic variance. Our analysis highlights the potential of cross-correlations between GWs and radio tracers to improve constraints on astrophysical properties of BBHs, measure relativistic effects, and perform null tests of GR in cosmological scales.

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Revealing cosmological fluctuations in 21cm intensity maps with MeerKLASS: from maps to power spectra

Mapping the integrated 21cm emission line from dark matter-tracing neutral hydrogen gas is the primary science goal for MeerKLASS (MeerKAT's Large Area Synoptic Survey). Prior to the arrival of MeerKAT, this intensity mapping technique had only been tested on a couple of pre-existing single-dish radio telescopes with a handful of observational hours with which to make early pioneering detections. The 64-dish MeerKAT array, precursor to the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (SKAO), can scan the sky in auto-correlation mode and perform intensity mapping across large sky areas, presenting the exciting potential for a wide-sky (${\gtrsim}\,10{,}000\,{\rm deg}^2$) spectroscopic survey across redshift $0.4\,{<}\,z\,{<}\,1.45$. Validating the auto-correlation (or single-dish) mode of observation for a multi-dish array and developing the analysis pipeline with which to make unbiased measurements has presented major challenges to this endeavour. In this work, we overview the advances in the field that have facilitated a robust analysis framework for single-dish intensity mapping, and review some results that showcase its success using early MeerKLASS surveys. We demonstrate our control of foreground cleaning, signal loss and map regridding to deliver detections of cosmological clustering within the intensity maps through cross-correlation power spectrum measurements with overlapping galaxy surveys. Finally, we discuss the prospects for future MeerKLASS observations and forecast its potential, making our code publicly available: https://github.com/meerklass/MeerFish.

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Hydrogen intensity mapping with MeerKAT: Preserving cosmological signal by optimising contaminant separation

Removing contaminants is a delicate, yet crucial step in neutral hydrogen (HI) intensity mapping and often considered the technique's greatest challenge. Here, we address this challenge by analysing HI intensity maps of about $100$ deg$^2$ at redshift $z\approx0.4$ collected by the MeerKAT radio telescope, an SKA Observatory (SKAO) precursor, with a combined 10.5-hour observation. Using unsupervised statistical methods, we removed the contaminating foreground emission and systematically tested, step-by-step, some common pre-processing choices to facilitate the cleaning process. We also introduced and tested a novel multiscale approach: the data were redundantly decomposed into subsets referring to different spatial scales (large and small), where the cleaning procedure was performed independently. We confirm the detection of the HI cosmological signal in cross-correlation with an ancillary galactic data set, without the need to correct for signal loss. In the best set-up we achieved, we were able to constrain the HI distribution through the combination of its cosmic abundance ($Ω_{HI}$) and linear clustering bias ($b_{HI}$) up to a cross-correlation coefficient ($r$). We measured $Ω_{HI}b_{HI}r = [0.93 \pm 0.17]\,\times\,10^{-3}$ with a $\approx6σ$ confidence, which is independent of scale cuts at both edges of the probed scale range ($0.04 \lesssim k \lesssim 0.3 \,h$ Mpc$^{-1}$), corroborating its robustness. Our new pipeline has successfully found an optimal compromise in separating contaminants without incurring a catastrophic signal loss. This development instills an added degree of confidence in the outstanding science we can deliver with MeerKAT on the path towards HI intensity mapping surveys with the full SKAO.

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Squeezing information from radio surveys to probe the primordial Universe

A major goal of cosmology is to understand the nature of the field(s) which drove primordial Inflation. Through future observations, the statistics of large-scale structure will allow us to probe primordial non-Gaussianity of the curvature perturbation at the end of Inflation. We show how a new correlation statistic can significantly improve these constraints over conventional methods. Next-generation radio telescope arrays are under construction which will map the density field of neutral hydrogen to high redshifts. These telescopes can operate as an interferometer, able to probe small scales, or as a collection of single dishes, combining signals to map the large scales. We show how to fuse these these operating modes in order to measure the squeezed bispectrum with higher precision and greater economy. This leads to constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity that will improve on measurements by Planck, and out-perform other surveys such as Euclid. We forecast that $σ(f_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\mathrm{loc}})\sim 3$, achieved by using a small subset, $\mathcal{O}(10^2-10^3)$, of the total number of accessible triangles. The proposed method can be used for any signal that peaks in squeezed configurations.

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Emission-line Stacking of 21cm Intensity Maps with MeerKLASS: Inference Pipeline and Application to the L-band Deep-field Data

We present a novel analysis of observational systematics through the emission-line stacking of the MeerKLASS L-band deep-field intensity maps, following the detection in arXiv:2407.21626. A stacking signal is obtained by stacking the 21cm intensity map cubelets around the galaxy positions from the GAMA survey at $0.39\lesssim z \lesssim0.46$. An extensive simulation framework is built to study the viability of the stacking detection, the covariance estimation, and the model inference, which are then applied to the data. The statistical significance of the detection is $8.66σ$ when averaged into an angular map, and $7.45σ$ when averaged into a spectrum. The stacked spectrum exhibits an oscillating component of systematics, and we provide evidence that these systematics are a convolutional effect on the map data. The oscillation frequency matches the diffraction from the secondary reflector into the primary beam of the MeerKAT telescope. Bayesian inference can be used to constrain the systematics and the average HI emission of the galaxies. The fitting of the parameters gives a constraint on the systematics frequency $ν_{\rm sys}\,[{\rm MHz}] = 17.90^{+6.53}_{-4.27}$. The posterior of the systematics amplitude reaches the wide prior and gives $A_{\rm sys}=0.50^{+0.33}_{-0.33}$. A tentative measurement of the average HI mass of the sources is achieved at $\log_{10}[\langle M_{HI}\rangle/M_\odot ]=9.84^{+0.48}_{-0.59}$, which is an underestimation limited by the narrow redshift bin, the strong degeneracy with the systematics, and the low-density galaxy sample. These shortfalls will be resolved for future MeerKLASS data to enable accurate measurements of the HI density through stacking of intensity maps.

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MeerKLASS L-band deep-field intensity maps: entering the HI dominated regime

We present results from MeerKAT single-dish HI intensity maps, the final observations to be performed in L-band in the MeerKAT Large Area Synoptic Survey (MeerKLASS) campaign. The observations represent the deepest single-dish HI intensity maps to date, produced from 41 repeated scans over $236\,{\rm deg}^2$, providing 62 hours of observational data for each of the 64 dishes before flagging. By introducing an iterative self-calibration process, the estimated thermal noise of the reconstructed maps is limited to ${\sim}\,1.21\,$mK ($1.2\,\times$ the theoretical noise level). This thermal noise will be sub-dominant relative to the HI fluctuations on large scales ($k\,{\lesssim}\,0.15\,h\,\text{Mpc}^{-1}$), which demands upgrades to power spectrum analysis techniques, particularly for covariance estimation. In this work, we present the improved MeerKLASS analysis pipeline, validating it on both a suite of mock simulations and a small sample of overlapping spectroscopic galaxies from the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey. Despite only overlapping with ${\sim}\,25\%$ of the MeerKLASS deep field, and a conservative approach to covariance estimation, we still obtain a ${>}\,4\,σ$ detection of the cross-power spectrum between the intensity maps and the 2269 galaxies at the narrow redshift range $0.39\,{<}\,z\,{<}\,0.46$. We briefly discuss the HI auto-power spectrum from this data, the detection of which will be the focus of follow-up work. For the first time with MeerKAT single-dish intensity maps, we also present evidence of HI emission from stacking the maps onto the positions of the GAMA galaxies.

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Gravitational waves and galaxies cross-correlations: a forecast on GW biases for future detectors

Gravitational waves (GWs) have rapidly become important cosmological probes since their first detection in 2015. As the number of detected events continues to rise, upcoming instruments like the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE) will observe millions of compact binary (CB) mergers. These detections, coupled with galaxy surveys by instruments such as DESI, Euclid, and the Vera Rubin Observatory, will provide unique information on the large-scale structure of the universe by cross-correlating GWs with the distribution of galaxies which host them. In this paper, we focus on how these cross-correlations constrain the clustering bias of GWs emitted by the coalescence of binary black holes (BBH). This parameter links BBHs to the underlying dark matter distribution, hence informing us how they populate galaxies. Using a multi-tracer approach, we forecast the precision of these measurements under different survey combinations. Our results indicate that current GW detectors will have limited precision, with measurement errors as high as $\sim50\%$. However, third-generation detectors like ET, when cross-correlated with LSST data, can improve clustering bias measurements to within $2.5\%$. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these cross-correlations can enable a percent-level measurement of the magnification lensing effect on GWs. Despite this, there is a degeneracy between magnification and evolution biases, which hinders the precision of both. This degeneracy is most effectively addressed by assuming knowledge of one bias or targeting an optimal redshift range of $1 < z < 2.5$. Our analysis opens new avenues for studying the distribution of BBHs and testing the nature of gravity through large-scale structure.

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The observed number counts in luminosity distance space

Next generation surveys will provide us with an unprecedented number of detections of supernovae Type Ia and gravitational wave merger events. Cross-correlations of such objects offer novel and powerful insights into the large-scale distribution of matter in the universe. Both of these sources carry information on their luminosity distance, but remain uninformative about their redshifts; hence their clustering analyses and cross-correlations need to be carried out in luminosity distance space, as opposed to redshift space. In this paper, we calculate the full expression for the number count fluctuation in terms of a perturbation to the observed luminosity distance. We find the expression to differ significantly from the one commonly used in redshift space. Furthermore, we present a comparison of the number count angular power spectra between luminosity distance and redshift spaces. We see a wide divergence between the two at large scales, and we note that lensing is the main contribution to such differences. On such scales and at higher redshifts the difference between the angular power spectra in luminosity distance and redshift spaces can be roughly 50$\%$. We also investigate cross-correlating different redshift bins using different tracers, i.e. one in luminosity distance space and one in redshift, simulating the cross-correlation angular power spectrum between background gravitational waves/supernovae and foreground galaxies. Finally, we show that in a cosmic variance limited survey, the relativistic corrections to the density-only term ought to be included.

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