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José Heleno Faro

Publications and source records attributed to José Heleno Faro.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Dynamically Consistent Objective and Subjective Rationality

A group of experts, for instance climate scientists, is to choose among two policies $f$ and $g$. Consider the following decision rule. If all experts agree that the expected utility of $f$ is higher than the expected utility of $g$, the unanimity rule applies, and $f$ is chosen. Otherwise the precautionary principle is implemented and the policy yielding the highest minimal expected utility is chosen. This decision rule may lead to time inconsistencies when an intermediate period of partial resolution of uncertainty is added. We provide axioms that enlarge the initial group of experts with veto power, which leads to a set of probabilistic beliefs that is "rectangular" in a minimal sense. This makes this decision rule dynamically consistent and provides, as a byproduct, a novel behavioral characterization of rectangularity.

econ.TH↗

Time discounting under uncertainty

We study intertemporal decision making under uncertainty. We fully characterize discounted expected utility in a framework à la Savage. Despite the popularity of this model, no characterization is available in this setting. The concept of stationarity, introduced by Koopmans for deterministic discounted utility, plays a central role for both attitudes towards time and towards uncertainty. We show that a strong stationarity axiom characterizes discounted expected utility. When hedging considerations are taken into account, a weaker stationarity axiom generalizes discounted expected utility to Choquet discounted expected utility, allowing for non-neutral attitudes towards uncertainty.

econ.TH↗