arXiv subjects

José S. Andrade Jr

Publications and source records attributed to José S. Andrade Jr.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Mapping Inter-City Trade Networks to Maximum Entropy Models using Electronic Invoice Data

We analyze the network of transactions among cities based on the electronic invoice database for the municipalities in the Ceará state, Brazil. It consists of approximately 3.7 billion records, registered during the period between the years 2016 to 2019. All the transactions are grouped in a unique dataset and represented as an asymmetrical adjacency matrix corresponding to a directed graph with connections weighted by the number of transactions among cities. Due to the large size of Ceará state, its unequal distribution of wealth, and spatially heterogeneous population, we initially determine communities of cities based on their mutual intensity of trades and verify to which extent their economic interests reflect a community cohesiveness. For the first task, we use the Infomap algorithm to detect the partition which provides the shortest description length and captures the optimal community structure of the network in terms of its associated flow dynamics. Surprisingly, the partition identified has five modules, whose two-dimensional geographical projections are all simply-connected domains. We proceed with the analysis of traded products by building bipartite structures represented in terms of adjacency matrices between municipalities and products, considering selling and buying. Using the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) concept, we define a non-monetary and binary activity index that can distinguish the RCA of a city in a class of goods or services as evidenced by trade flows. Finally, through the pairwise Maximum Entropy Model, we can associate to the largest communities their corresponding binary Ising-like Hamiltonian models. In an analogy with critical phenomena, our results reveal that each community operates at a "temperature" that is close to the corresponding "critical point", suggesting a high degree of "economic cohesiveness" in its trade network of cities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Tricritical behavior in epidemic dynamics with vaccination

We scrutinize the phenomenology arising from a minimal vaccination-epidemic (MVE) dynamics using three methods: mean-field approach, Monte Carlo simulations, and finite-size scaling analysis. The mean-field formulation reveals that the MVE model exhibits either a continuous or a discontinuous active-to-absorbing phase transition, accompanied by bistability and a tricritical point. However, on square lattices, we detect no signs of bistability, and we disclose that the active-to-absorbing state transition has a scaling invariance and critical exponents compatible with the continuous transition of the directed percolation universality class. Additionally, our findings indicate that the tricritical and crossover behaviors of the MVE dynamics belong to the universality class of mean-field tricritical directed percolation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Random networks with q-exponential degree distribution

We use the configuration model to generate networks having a degree distribution that follows a $q$-exponential, $P_q(k)=(2-q)λ[1-(1-q)λk]^{1/(q-1)}$, for arbitrary values of the parameters $q$ and $λ$. We study the assortativity and the shortest path of these networks finding that the more the distribution resembles a pure power law, the less well connected are the corresponding nodes. In fact, the average degree of a nearest neighbor grows monotonically with $λ^{-1}$. Moreover, our results show that $q$-exponential networks are more robust against random failures and against malicious attacks than standard scale-free networks. Indeed, the critical fraction of removed nodes grows logarithmically with $λ^{-1}$ for malicious attacks. An analysis of the $k_s$-core decomposition shows that $q$-exponential networks have a highest $k_s$-core, that is bigger and has a larger $k_s$ than pure scale-free networks. Being at the same time well connected and robust, networks with $q$-exponential degree distribution exhibit scale-free and small-world properties, making them a particularly suitable model for application in several systems.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2020

Spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreaks

After their re-emergence in the last decades, dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases are a potential threat to the lives of millions of people. Based on a data set of dengue cases in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza, collected from 2011 to 2016, we study the spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreaks to characterize epidemic and non-epidemic years. First, we identify regions that show a high prevalence of dengue cases and mosquito larvae in different years and also analyze their corresponding correlations. Our results show that the characteristic correlation length of the epidemic is of the order of the system size, suggesting that factors such as citizen mobility may play a major role as a drive for spatial spreading of vector-borne diseases. Inspired by this observation, we perform a mean-field estimation of the basic reproduction number and find that our estimated values agree well with the values reported for other regions, pointing towards similar underlying spreading mechanisms. These findings provide insights into the spreading characteristics of dengue in densely populated areas and should be of relevance for the design of improved disease containment strategies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

A universal approach for drainage basins

Drainage basins are essential to Geohydrology and Biodiversity. Defining those regions in a simple, robust and efficient way is a constant challenge in Earth Science. Here, we introduce a model to delineate multiple drainage basins through an extension of the Invasion Percolation-Based Algorithm (IPBA). In order to prove the potential of our approach, we apply it to real and artificial datasets. We observe that the perimeter and area distributions of basins and anti-basins display long tails extending over several orders of magnitude and following approximately power-law behaviors. Moreover, the exponents of these power laws depend on spatial correlations and are invariant under the landscape orientation, not only for terrestrial, but lunar and martian landscapes. The terrestrial and martian results are statistically identical, which suggests that a hypothetical martian river would present similarity to the terrestrial rivers. Finally, we propose a theoretical value for the Hack's exponent based on the fractal dimension of watersheds, $γ=D/2$. We measure $γ=0.54 \pm 0.01$ for Earth, which is close to our estimation of $γ\approx 0.55$. Our study suggests that Hack's law can have its origin purely in the maximum and minimum lines of the landscapes.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2019

Dynamics of racial segregation and gentrification in New York City

Racial residential segregation is interconnected with several other phenomena such as income inequalities, property values inequalities, and racial disparities in health and in education. Furthermore, recent literature suggests the phenomena of gentrification as a cause of perpetuation or increase of racial residential segregation in some American cities. In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of racial residential segregation for white, black, Asian, and Hispanic citizens in New York City in the years of 1990, 2000, and 2010. It was possible to observe that segregation between white and Hispanic citizens, and discrimination between white and Asian ones has grown, while segregation between white and black is quite stable. Furthermore, we analyzed the per capita income and the Gini coefficient in each segregated zone, showing that the highest inequalities occur in the zones where there is overlap of high-density zones of pair of races. Focusing on census tracts that have changed density of population during these twenty years, and, particularly, by analyzing white and black people's segregation, our analysis reveals that a positive flux of white (black) people is associated to a substantial increase (decrease) of the property values, as compared with the city mean. Furthermore, by clustering the region of high density of black citizens, we measured the variation of area and displacement of the four biggest clusters in the period from 1990 to 2010. The large displacements (~ 1.6 Km) observed for two of these clusters, namely, one in the neighborhood of Harlem and the other inside the borough of Brooklyn, led to the emergence of typically gentrified regions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

The price of a vote: diseconomy in proportional elections

The increasing cost of electoral campaigns raises the need for effective campaign planning and a precise understanding of the return of such investment. Interestingly, despite the strong impact of elections on our daily lives, how this investment is translated into votes is still unknown. By performing data analysis and modeling, we show that top candidates spend more money \emph{per vote} than the less successful and poorer candidates, a sublinearity that discloses a diseconomy of scale. We demonstrate that such electoral diseconomy arises from the competition between candidates due to inefficient campaign expenditure. Our approach succeeds in two important tests. First, it reveals that the statistical pattern in the vote distribution of candidates can be explained in terms of the independently conceived, but similarly skewed distribution of money campaign. Second, using a heuristic argument, we are able to predict a turnout percentage for a given election of approximately 63\%. This result is in good agreement with the average turnout rate obtained from real data. Due to its generality, we expect that our approach can be applied to a wide range of problems concerning the adoption process in marketing campaigns.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

The light pollution as a surrogate for urban population of the US cities

We show that the definition of the city boundaries can have a dramatic influence on the scaling behavior of the night-time light (NTL) as a function of population (POP) in the US. Precisely, our results show that the arbitrary geopolitical definition based on the Metropolitan/Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA/CMSA) leads to a sublinear power-law growth of NTL with POP. On the other hand, when cities are defined according to a more natural agglomeration criteria, namely, the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA), an isometric relation emerges between NTL and population. This discrepancy is compatible with results from previous works showing that the scaling behaviors of various urban indicators with population can be substantially different for distinct definitions of city boundaries. Moreover, considering the CCA definition as more adequate than the MSA/CMSA one because the former does not violate the expected extensivity between land population and area of their generated clusters, we conclude that, without loss of generality, the CCA measures of light pollution and population could be interchangeably utilized in future studies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Human Mobility in Large Cities as a Proxy for Crime

We investigate at the subscale of the neighborhoods of a highly populated city the incidence of property crimes in terms of both the resident and the floating population. Our results show that a relevant allometric relation could only be observed between property crimes and floating population. More precisely, the evidence of a superlinear behavior indicates that a disproportional number of property crimes occurs in regions where an increased flow of people takes place in the city. For comparison, we also found that the number of crimes of peace disturbance only correlates well, and in a superlinear fashion too, with the resident population. Our study raises the interesting possibility that the superlinearity observed in previous studies [Bettencourt et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 104, 7301 (2007) and Melo et al., Sci. Rep. 4, 6239 (2014)] for homicides versus population at the city scale could have its origin in the fact that the floating population, and not the resident one, should be taken as the relevant variable determining the intrinsic microdynamical behavior of the system.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

How does public opinion become extreme?

We investigate the emergence of extreme opinion trends in society by employing statistical physics modeling and analysis on polls that inquire about a wide range of issues such as religion, economics, politics, abortion, extramarital sex, books, movies, and electoral vote. The surveys lay out a clear indicator of the rise of extreme views. The precursor is a nonlinear relation between the fraction of individuals holding a certain extreme view and the fraction of individuals that includes also moderates, e.g., in politics, those who are "very conservative" versus "moderate to very conservative" ones. We propose an activation model of opinion dynamics with interaction rules based on the existence of individual "stubbornness" that mimics empirical observations. According to our modeling, the onset of nonlinearity can be associated to an abrupt bootstrap-percolation transition with cascades of extreme views through society. Therefore, it represents an early-warning signal to forecast the transition from moderate to extreme views. Moreover, by means of a phase diagram we can classify societies according to the percolative regime they belong to, in terms of critical fractions of extremists and people's ties.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Statistical Signs of Social Influence on Suicides

Certain currents in sociology consider society as being composed of autonomous individuals with independent psychologies. Others, however, deem our actions as strongly influenced by the accepted standards of social behavior. The later view was central to the positivist conception of society when in 1887 Émile Durkheim published his monograph Suicide (Durkheim, 1897). By treating the suicide as a social fact, Durkheim envisaged that suicide rates should be determined by the connections (or the lack of them) between people and society. Under the same framework, Durkheim considered that crime is bound up with the fundamental conditions of all social life and serves a social function. In this sense, and regardless of its extremely deviant nature, crime events are somehow capable to release certain social tensions and so have a purging effect in society. The social effect on the occurrence of homicides has been previously substantiated (Bettencourt et al., 2007; Alves et al., 2013), and confirmed here, in terms of a superlinear scaling relation: by doubling the population of a Brazilian city results in an average increment of 135 % in the number of homicides, rather than the expected isometric increase of 100 %, as found, for example, for the mortality due to car crashes. Here we present statistical signs of the social influence on the suicide occurrence in cities. Differently from homicides (superlinear) and fatal events in car crashes (isometric), we find sublinear scaling behavior between the number of suicides and city population, with allometric power-law exponents, $β= 0.836 \pm 0.009$ and $0.870 \pm 0.002$, for all cities in Brazil and US, respectively. The fact that the frequency of suicides is disproportionately small for larger cities reveals a surprisingly beneficial aspect of living and interacting in larger and more complex social networks.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2013

Enhanced Flow in Small-World Networks

The small-world property is known to have a profound effect on the navigation efficiency of complex networks [J. M. Kleinberg, Nature 406, 845 (2000)]. Accordingly, the proper addition of shortcuts to a regular substrate can lead to the formation of a highly efficient structure for information propagation. Here we show that enhanced flow properties can also be observed in these complex topologies. Precisely, our model is a network built from an underlying regular lattice over which long-range connections are randomly added according to the probability, $P_{ij}\sim r_{ij}^{-α}$, where $r_{ij}$ is the Manhattan distance between nodes $i$ and $j$, and the exponent $α$ is a controlling parameter. The mean two-point global conductance of the system is computed by considering that each link has a local conductance given by $g_{ij}\propto r_{ij}^{-δ}$, where $δ$ determines the extent of the geographical limitations (costs) on the long-range connections. Our results show that the best flow conditions are obtained for $δ=0$ with $α=0$, while for $δ\gg 1$ the overall conductance always increases with $α$. For $δ\approx 1$, $α=d$ becomes the optimal exponent, where $d$ is the topological dimension of the substrate. Interestingly, this exponent is identical to the one obtained for optimal navigation in small-world networks using decentralized algorithms.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2012

The spread of gossip in American schools

We study different mechanisms of gossip propagation on several network topologies and introduce a new network property, the "spread factor", describing the fraction of neighbors that get to know the gossip. We postulate that for scale-free networks the spreading time grows logarithmically with the degree of the victim and prove this statement for the case of the Apollonian network. Applying our concepts to real data from an American school survey, we confirm the logarithmic law and disclose that there exists an ideal number of acquaintances minimizing the fraction attained by the gossip. The similarity between the school survey and scale-free networks remains even for cases when gossip propagation only occurs with some probability $q<1$. The spreading times follow an exponential distribution that can also be calculated analytically for the Apollonian network. When gossip also spreads through strangers the situation changes substantially: the spreading time becomes a constant and there exists no ideal degree of connectivity anymore.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2012

Fatigue in disordered media

We obtain the Paris law of fatigue crack propagation in a disordered solid using a fuse network model where the accumulated damage in each resistor increases with time as a power law of the local current amplitude. When a resistor reaches its fatigue threshold, it burns irreversibly. Over time, this drives cracks to grow until the system is fractured in two parts. We study the relation between the macroscopic exponent of the crack growth rate -- entering the phenomenological Paris law -- and the microscopic damage-accumulation exponent, $γ$, under the influence of disorder. The way the jumps of the growing crack, $Δa$, and the waiting-time between successive breaks, $Δt$, depend on the type of material, via $γ$, are also investigated. We find that the averages of these quantities, $<Δa>$ and $<Δt>/ $, scale as power laws of the crack length $a$, $<Δa> \propto a^α$ and $<Δt>/ \propto a^{-β}$, where $ $ is the average rupture time. Strikingly, our results show, for small values of $γ$, a decrease in the exponent of the Paris law in comparison with the homogeneous case, leading to an increase in the lifetime of breaking materials. For the particular case of $γ=0$, when fatigue is exclusively ruled by disorder, an analytical treatment confirms the results obtained by simulation.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2012

Linear stability analysis of transverse dunes

Sand-moving winds blowing from a constant direction in an area of high sand availability form transverse dunes, which have a fixed profile in the direction orthogonal to the wind. Here we show, by means of a linear stability analysis, that transverse dunes are intrinsically unstable. Any along-axis perturbation on a transverse dune amplify in the course of dune migration due to the combined effect of two main factors, namely: the lateral transport through avalanches along the dune's slip-face, and the scaling of dune migration velocity with the inverse of the dune height. Our calculations provide a quantitative explanation for recent observations from experiments and numerical simulations, which showed that transverse dunes moving on the bedrock cannot exist in a stable form and decay into a chain of crescent-shaped barchans.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2010

Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2009

Non-Newtonian fluid flow through three-dimensional disordered porous media

We investigate the flow of various non-Newtonian fluids through three-dimensional disordered porous media by direct numerical simulation of momentum transport and continuity equations. Remarkably, our results for power-law (PL) fluids indicate that the flow, when quantified in terms of a properly modified permeability-like index and Reynolds number, can be successfully described by a single (universal) curve over a broad range of Reynolds conditions and power-law exponents. We also study the flow behavior of Bingham fluids described in terms of the Herschel-Bulkley model. In this case, our simulations reveal that the interplay of ({\it i}) the disordered geometry of the pore space, ({\it ii}) the fluid rheological properties, and ({\it iii}) the inertial effects on the flow is responsible for a substantial enhancement of the macroscopic hydraulic conductance of the system at intermediate Reynolds conditions. This anomalous condition of ``enhanced transport'' represents a novel feature for flow in porous materials.

physics.flu-dyn↗