arXiv subjects

Jose Aguilar

Publications and source records attributed to Jose Aguilar.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

A mathematical model of vaccine hesitancy: Analysing the impact of political trends and the interaction across age and education groups in the USA

Vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 disease has significantly reduced its mortality rate and spread. However, despite its availability, a considerable proportion of the public has either refused or delayed getting vaccinated. This reluctance is known as vaccine hesitancy. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model to investigate how social interaction can impact vaccine hesitancy. The model describes the temporal transitions between different vaccination classes of the population (those vaccinated, those who are not yet vaccinated but agree to be vaccinated, and those who refuse). We apply the model to state and national survey data from the USA to estimate model parameters that quantify the rates at which public opinion on vaccination changes. Moreover, we investigate how political trends and demographic factors, such as age and education, impact these parameters. Our results show that state-level political affiliation, age, and educational level shape opinions on vaccination and have a strong influence on the temporal dynamics of attitude changes.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

Nowcasting Temporal Trends Using Indirect Surveys

Indirect surveys, in which respondents provide information about other people they know, have been proposed for estimating (nowcasting) the size of a \emph{hidden population} where privacy is important or the hidden population is hard to reach. Examples include estimating casualties in an earthquake, conditions among female sex workers, and the prevalence of drug use and infectious diseases. The Network Scale-up Method (NSUM) is the classical approach to developing estimates from indirect surveys, but it was designed for one-shot surveys. Further, it requires certain assumptions and asking for or estimating the number of individuals in each respondent's network. In recent years, surveys have been increasingly deployed online and can collect data continuously (e.g., COVID-19 surveys on Facebook during much of the pandemic). Conventional NSUM can be applied to these scenarios by analyzing the data independently at each point in time, but this misses the opportunity of leveraging the temporal dimension. We propose to use the responses from indirect surveys collected over time and develop analytical tools (i) to prove that indirect surveys can provide better estimates for the trends of the hidden population over time, as compared to direct surveys and (ii) to identify appropriate temporal aggregations to improve the estimates. We demonstrate through extensive simulations that our approach outperforms traditional NSUM and direct surveying methods. We also empirically demonstrate the superiority of our approach on a real indirect survey dataset of COVID-19 cases.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Measuring the Complexity of Self-organizing Traffic Lights

We apply measures of complexity, emergence and self-organization to an abstract city traffic model for comparing a traditional traffic coordination method with a self-organizing method in two scenarios: cyclic boundaries and non-orientable boundaries. We show that the measures are useful to identify and characterize different dynamical phases. It becomes clear that different operation regimes are required for different traffic demands. Thus, not only traffic is a non-stationary problem, which requires controllers to adapt constantly. Controllers must also change drastically the complexity of their behavior depending on the demand. Based on our measures, we can say that the self-organizing method achieves an adaptability level comparable to a living system.

nlin.AO↗