arXiv subjects

Josef Teichmann

Publications and source records attributed to Josef Teichmann.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Operator Neural Jump ODEs: $L^2$-optimal prediction in function spaces

In this paper, we study the extension of Neural Jump ODEs to infinite-dimensional function spaces. In particular, the underlying process $X$ now takes values in $L^2(\Xi, \mathbb{R}^{d_X})$ instead of $\mathbb{R}^{d_X}$ and the Operator NJ-ODE approximates the optimal predictor of this process by producing a representative of the conditional expectation. The NJ-ODE model is a framework for online learning the optimal prediction of continuous-time stochastic processes, given discrete, possibly irregular and incomplete past observations. In a series of works, this model has been extended to deal with generic path-dependent processes, with observation noise and dependent observations, with long-term predictions, and with input-output systems. However, throughout all of these works, the underlying processes were restricted to be finite-dimensional. In particular, function-valued problems, like yield curve or volatility surface predictions, could only be handled through discretization, which inherently leads to a loss of information. In this work, we build on ideas from Neural Operator methods that allow us to extend the NJ-ODE framework to an infinite-dimensional output process. To prove convergence of the NJ-ODE to the optimal prediction process, we develop a new approximation strategy that also generalizes previous works in the finite-dimensional setting by considerably weakening the assumptions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Weighted universal approximation of differentiable maps on infinite-dimensional manifolds

We generalize the universal approximation theorem for functional input neural networks (FNN) to differentiable maps by including the approximation of the derivatives. A FNN maps the input from a possibly infinite-dimensional weighted manifold to the real-valued hidden layer, on which a non-linear scalar activation function is applied, and then returns the output into a Banach space via some linear readouts. By proving a weighted Nachbin theorem, we establish a universal approximation theorem for differentiable maps, which goes beyond the usual formulation on compact sets and also includes the approximation of the derivatives. This leads us to approximation results for non-anticipative functionals including the horizontal and vertical derivatives. As a further application, we show that linear functions of the signature are able to approximate path space functionals including their directional derivatives.

math.FA↗

arXiv2026

JUCAL: Jointly Calibrating Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Classification Tasks

We study post-calibration uncertainty for trained ensembles of classifiers. Specifically, we consider both aleatoric (label noise) and epistemic (model) uncertainty. Among the most popular and widely used calibration methods in classification are temperature scaling (i.e., pool-then-calibrate) and conformal methods. However, the main shortcoming of these calibration methods is that they do not balance the proportion of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Not balancing these uncertainties can severely misrepresent predictive uncertainty, leading to overconfident predictions in some input regions while being underconfident in others. To address this shortcoming, we present a simple but powerful calibration algorithm Joint Uncertainty Calibration (JUCAL) that jointly calibrates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. JUCAL jointly calibrates two constants to weight and scale epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties by optimizing the negative log-likelihood (NLL) on the validation/calibration dataset. JUCAL can be applied to any trained ensemble of classifiers (e.g., transformers, CNNs, or tree-based methods), with minimal computational overhead, without requiring access to the models' internal parameters. We experimentally evaluate JUCAL on various text classification tasks, for ensembles of varying sizes and with different ensembling strategies. Our experiments show that JUCAL significantly outperforms SOTA calibration methods across all considered classification tasks, reducing NLL and predictive set size by up to 15% and 20%, respectively. Interestingly, even applying JUCAL to an ensemble of size 5 can outperform temperature-scaled ensembles of size up to 50 in terms of NLL and predictive set size, resulting in up to 10 times smaller inference costs. Thus, we propose JUCAL as a new go-to method for calibrating ensembles in classification.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Stochastic factors can matter: improving robust growth under ergodicity

Drifts of asset returns are notoriously difficult to model accurately and, yet, trading strategies obtained from portfolio optimization are very sensitive to them. To mitigate this well-known phenomenon we study robust growth-optimization in a high-dimensional incomplete market under drift uncertainty of the asset price process $X$, under an additional ergodicity assumption, which constrains but does not fully specify the drift in general. The class of admissible models allows $X$ to depend on a multivariate stochastic factor $Y$ and fixes (a) their joint volatility structure, (b) their long-term joint ergodic density and (c) the dynamics of the stochastic factor process $Y$. A principal motivation of this framework comes from pairs trading, where $X$ is the spread process and models with the above characteristics are commonplace. Our main results determine the robust optimal growth rate, construct a worst-case admissible model and characterize the robust growth-optimal strategy via a solution to a certain partial differential equation (PDE). We demonstrate that utilizing the stochastic factor leads to improvement in robust growth complementing the conclusions of the previous study by Itkin et. al. (arXiv:2211.15628 [q-fin.MF], forthcoming in $\textit{Finance and Stochastics}$), which additionally robustified the dynamics of the stochastic factor leading to $Y$-independent optimal strategies. Our analysis leads to new financial insights, quantifying the improvement in growth the investor can achieve by optimally incorporating stochastic factors into their trading decisions. We illustrate our theoretical results on several numerical examples including an application to pairs trading.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2025

Neural Jump ODEs as Generative Models

In this work, we explore how Neural Jump ODEs (NJODEs) can be used as generative models for It\^o processes. Given (discrete observations of) samples of a fixed underlying It\^o process, the NJODE framework can be used to approximate the drift and diffusion coefficients of the process. Under standard regularity assumptions on the It\^o processes, we prove that, in the limit, we recover the true parameters with our approximation. Hence, using these learned coefficients to sample from the corresponding It\^o process generates, in the limit, samples with the same law as the true underlying process. Compared to other generative machine learning models, our approach has the advantage that it does not need adversarial training and can be trained solely as a predictive model on the observed samples without the need to generate any samples during training to empirically approximate the distribution. Moreover, the NJODE framework naturally deals with irregularly sampled data with missing values as well as with path-dependent dynamics, allowing to apply this approach in real-world settings. In particular, in the case of path-dependent coefficients of the It\^o processes, the NJODE learns their optimal approximation given the past observations and therefore allows generating new paths conditionally on discrete, irregular, and incomplete past observations in an optimal way.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

IMProofBench: Benchmarking AI on Research-Level Mathematical Proof Generation

As the mathematical capabilities of large language models (LLMs) improve, it becomes increasingly important to evaluate their performance on research-level tasks at the frontier of mathematical knowledge. However, existing benchmarks are limited, as they focus solely on final-answer questions or high-school competition problems. To address this gap, we introduce IMProofBench, a private benchmark consisting of 77 peer-reviewed problems developed by expert mathematicians. Each problem requires a detailed proof and is paired with subproblems that have final answers, supporting both an evaluation by human experts and a large-scale quantitative analysis through automated grading. Furthermore, unlike prior benchmarks, the evaluation setup simulates a realistic research environment: models operate in an agentic framework with tools like web search for literature review and mathematical software such as SageMath. Our results show that current LLMs can already solve a significant percentage of research-level questions. IMProofBench will continue to evolve as a dynamic benchmark in collaboration with the mathematical community, ensuring its relevance for evaluating the next generation of LLMs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Revealing the temporal dynamics of antibiotic anomalies in the infant gut microbiome with neural jump ODEs

Detecting anomalies in irregularly sampled multi-variate time-series is challenging, especially in data-scarce settings. Here we introduce an anomaly detection framework for irregularly sampled time-series that leverages neural jump ordinary differential equations (NJODEs). The method infers conditional mean and variance trajectories in a fully path dependent way and computes anomaly scores. On synthetic data containing jump, drift, diffusion, and noise anomalies, the framework accurately identifies diverse deviations. Applied to infant gut microbiome trajectories, it delineates the magnitude and persistence of antibiotic-induced disruptions: revealing prolonged anomalies after second antibiotic courses, extended duration treatments, and exposures during the second year of life. We further demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the inferred anomaly scores in accurately predicting antibiotic events and outperforming diversity-based baselines. Our approach accommodates unevenly spaced longitudinal observations, adjusts for static and dynamic covariates, and provides a foundation for inferring microbial anomalies induced by perturbations, offering a translational opportunity to optimize intervention regimens by minimizing microbial disruptions.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Tackling One Health Risks: How Large Language Models are leveraged for Risk Negotiation and Consensus-building

Key global challenges of our times are characterized by complex interdependencies and can only be effectively addressed through an integrated, participatory effort. Conventional risk analysis frameworks often reduce complexity to ensure manageability, creating silos that hinder comprehensive solutions. A fundamental shift towards holistic strategies is essential to enable effective negotiations between different sectors and to balance the competing interests of stakeholders. However, achieving this balance is often hindered by limited time, vast amounts of information, and the complexity of integrating diverse perspectives. This study presents an AI-assisted negotiation framework that incorporates large language models (LLMs) and AI-based autonomous agents into a negotiation-centered risk analysis workflow. The framework enables stakeholders to simulate negotiations, systematically model dynamics, anticipate compromises, and evaluate solution impacts. By leveraging LLMs' semantic analysis capabilities we could mitigate information overload and augment decision-making process under time constraints. Proof-of-concept implementations were conducted in two real-world scenarios: (i) prudent use of a biopesticide, and (ii) targeted wild animal population control. Our work demonstrates the potential of AI-assisted negotiation to address the current lack of tools for cross-sectoral engagement. Importantly, the solution's open source, web based design, suits for application by a broader audience with limited resources and enables users to tailor and develop it for their own needs.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Rough SDEs and Robust Filtering for Jump-Diffusions

We investigate the existence of a robust, i.e., continuous, representation of the conditional distribution in a stochastic filtering model for multidimensional correlated jump-diffusions. Even in the absence of jumps, it is known that in general such a representation can only be continuous with respect to rough path topologies, leading us naturally to express the conditional dynamics as a rough stochastic differential equation with jumps. Via the analysis of such equations, including exponential moments, Skorokhod continuity, and randomisation of the rough path, we establish several novel robustness results for stochastic filters.

math.PR↗

arXiv2025

Learning algorithms for mean field optimal control

We analyze an algorithm to numerically solve the mean-field optimal control problems by approximating the optimal feedback controls using neural networks with problem specific architectures. We approximate the model by an $N$-particle system and leverage the exchangeability of the particles to obtain substantial computational efficiency. In addition to several numerical examples, a convergence analysis is provided. We also developed a universal approximation theorem on Wasserstein spaces.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Universal approximation property of neural stochastic differential equations

We identify various classes of neural networks that are able to approximate continuous functions locally uniformly subject to fixed global linear growth constraints. For such neural networks the associated neural stochastic differential equations can approximate general stochastic differential equations, both of It\^o diffusion type, arbitrarily well. Moreover, quantitative error estimates are derived for stochastic differential equations with sufficiently regular coefficients.

math.PR↗

arXiv2025

Signature Reconstruction from Randomized Signatures

Controlled ordinary differential equations driven by continuous bounded variation curves can be considered a continuous time analogue of recurrent neural networks for the construction of expressive features of the input curves. We ask up to which extent well known signature features of such curves can be reconstructed from controlled ordinary differential equations with (untrained) random vector fields. The answer turns out to be algebraically involved, but essentially the number of signature features, which can be reconstructed from the non-linear flow of the controlled ordinary differential equation, is exponential in its hidden dimension, when the vector fields are chosen to be neural with depth two. Moreover, we characterize a general linear independence condition on arbitrary vector fields, under which the signature features up to some fixed order can always be reconstructed. Algebraically speaking this complements in a quantitative manner several well known results from the theory of Lie algebras of vector fields and puts them in a context of machine learning.

math.CA↗

arXiv2024

Learning Chaotic Systems and Long-Term Predictions with Neural Jump ODEs

The Path-dependent Neural Jump ODE (PD-NJ-ODE) is a model for online prediction of generic (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic processes with irregular (in time) and potentially incomplete (with respect to coordinates) observations. It is a model for which convergence to the $L^2$-optimal predictor, which is given by the conditional expectation, is established theoretically. Thereby, the training of the model is solely based on a dataset of realizations of the underlying stochastic process, without the need of knowledge of the law of the process. In the case where the underlying process is deterministic, the conditional expectation coincides with the process itself. Therefore, this framework can equivalently be used to learn the dynamics of ODE or PDE systems solely from realizations of the dynamical system with different initial conditions. We showcase the potential of our method by applying it to the chaotic system of a double pendulum. When training the standard PD-NJ-ODE method, we see that the prediction starts to diverge from the true path after about half of the evaluation time. In this work we enhance the model with two novel ideas, which independently of each other improve the performance of our modelling setup. The resulting dynamics match the true dynamics of the chaotic system very closely. The same enhancements can be used to provably enable the PD-NJ-ODE to learn long-term predictions for general stochastic datasets, where the standard model fails. This is verified in several experiments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Robust Utility Optimization via a GAN Approach

Robust utility optimization enables an investor to deal with market uncertainty in a structured way, with the goal of maximizing the worst-case outcome. In this work, we propose a generative adversarial network (GAN) approach to (approximately) solve robust utility optimization problems in general and realistic settings. In particular, we model both the investor and the market by neural networks (NN) and train them in a mini-max zero-sum game. This approach is applicable for any continuous utility function and in realistic market settings with trading costs, where only observable information of the market can be used. A large empirical study shows the versatile usability of our method. Whenever an optimal reference strategy is available, our method performs on par with it and in the (many) settings without known optimal strategy, our method outperforms all other reference strategies. Moreover, we can conclude from our study that the trained path-dependent strategies do not outperform Markovian ones. Lastly, we uncover that our generative approach for learning optimal, (non-) robust investments under trading costs generates universally applicable alternatives to well known asymptotic strategies of idealized settings.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2023

Randomized Signature Methods in Optimal Portfolio Selection

We present convincing empirical results on the application of Randomized Signature Methods for non-linear, non-parametric drift estimation for a multi-variate financial market. Even though drift estimation is notoriously ill defined due to small signal to noise ratio, one can still try to learn optimal non-linear maps from data to future returns for the purposes of portfolio optimization. Randomized Signatures, in contrast to classical signatures, allow for high dimensional market dimension and provide features on the same scale. We do not contribute to the theory of Randomized Signatures here, but rather present our empirical findings on portfolio selection in real world settings including real market data and transaction costs.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2023

Ramifications of generalized Feller theory

Generalized Feller theory provides an important analog to Feller theory beyond locally compact state spaces. This is very useful for solutions of certain stochastic partial differential equations, Markovian lifts of fractional processes, or infinite dimensional affine and polynomial processes which appear prominently in the theory of signature stochastic differential equations. We extend several folklore results related to generalized Feller processes, in particular on their construction and path properties, and provide the often quite sophisticated proofs in full detail. We also introduce the new concept of extended Feller processes and compare them with standard and generalized ones. A key example relates generalized Feller semigroups of algebra homomorphisms via the method of characteristics to transport equations and continuous semiflows on weighted spaces, i.e. a remarkably generic way to treat differential equations on weighted spaces. We also provide a counterexample, which shows that no condition of the basic definition of generalized Feller semigroups can be dropped.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Machine Learning-powered Pricing of the Multidimensional Passport Option

Introduced in the late 90s, the passport option gives its holder the right to trade in a market and receive any positive gain in the resulting traded account at maturity. Pricing the option amounts to solving a stochastic control problem that for $d>1$ risky assets remains an open problem. Even in a correlated Black-Scholes (BS) market with $d=2$ risky assets, no optimal trading strategy has been derived in closed form. In this paper, we derive a discrete-time solution for multi-dimensional BS markets with uncorrelated assets. Moreover, inspired by the success of deep reinforcement learning in, e.g., board games, we propose two machine learning-powered approaches to pricing general options on a portfolio value in general markets. These approaches prove to be successful for pricing the passport option in one-dimensional and multi-dimensional uncorrelated BS markets.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2023

Extending Path-Dependent NJ-ODEs to Noisy Observations and a Dependent Observation Framework

The Path-Dependent Neural Jump Ordinary Differential Equation (PD-NJ-ODE) is a model for predicting continuous-time stochastic processes with irregular and incomplete observations. In particular, the method learns optimal forecasts given irregularly sampled time series of incomplete past observations. So far the process itself and the coordinate-wise observation times were assumed to be independent and observations were assumed to be noiseless. In this work we discuss two extensions to lift these restrictions and provide theoretical guarantees as well as empirical examples for them. In particular, we can lift the assumption of independence by extending the theory to much more realistic settings of conditional independence without any need to change the algorithm. Moreover, we introduce a new loss function, which allows us to deal with noisy observations and explain why the previously used loss function did not lead to a consistent estimator.

stat.ML↗