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Josef Teichmann

Publications and source records attributed to Josef Teichmann.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Linearized Filtering of Affine Processes Using Stochastic Riccati Equations

We consider an affine process $X$ which is only observed up to an additive white noise, and we ask for its law, for some time $t > 0 $, conditional on all observations up to this time $ t $. This is a general, possibly high dimensional filtering problem which is not even locally approximately Gaussian, whence essentially only particle filtering methods remain as solution techniques. In this work we present an efficient numerical solution by introducing an approximate filter for which conditional characteristic functions can be calculated by solving a system of generalized Riccati differential equations depending on the observation and the process characteristics of the signal $X$. The quality of the approximation can be controlled by easily observable quantities in terms of a macro location of the signal in state space. Asymptotic techniques as well as maximization techniques can be directly applied to the solutions of the Riccati equations leading to novel very tractable filtering formulas. The efficiency of the method is illustrated with numerical experiments for Cox-Ingersoll-Ross and Wishart processes, for which Gaussian approximations usually fail.

math.PR↗

A fundamental theorem of asset pricing for continuous time large financial markets in a two filtration setting

We present a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) for continuous time large financial markets with two filtrations in an $L^p$-setting for $ 1 \leq p < \infty$. This extends the results of Yuri Kabanov and Christophe Stricker \cite{KS:06} to continuous time and to a large financial market setting, however, still preserving the simplicity of the discrete time setting. On the other hand it generalizes Stricker's $L^p$-version of FTAP \cite{S:90} towards a setting with two filtrations. We do neither assume that price processes are semi-martigales, (and it does not follow due to trading with respect to the \emph{smaller} filtration) nor that price processes have any path properties, neither any other particular property of the two filtrations in question, nor admissibility of portfolio wealth processes, but we rather go for a completely general (and realistic) result, where trading strategies are just predictable with respect to a smaller filtration than the one generated by the price processes. Applications range from modeling trading with delayed information, trading on different time grids, dealing with inaccurate price information, and randomization approaches to uncertainty.

q-fin.MF↗

Functional Analytic (Ir-)Regularity Properties of SABR-type Processes

The SABR model is a benchmark stochastic volatility model in interest rate markets, which has received much attention in the past decade. Its popularity arose from a tractable asymptotic expansion for implied volatility, derived by heat kernel methods. As markets moved to historically low rates, this expansion appeared to yield inconsistent prices. Since the model is deeply embedded in market practice, alternative pricing methods for SABR have been addressed in numerous approaches in recent years. All standard option pricing methods make certain regularity assumptions on the underlying model, but for SABR these are rarely satisfied. We examine here regularity properties of the model from this perspective with view to a number of (asymptotic and numerical) option pricing methods. In particular, we highlight delicate degeneracies of the SABR model (and related processes) at the origin, which deem the currently used popular heat kernel methods and all related methods from (sub-) Riemannian geometry ill-suited for SABR-type processes, when interest rates are near zero. We describe a more general semigroup framework, which permits to derive a suitable geometry for SABR-type processes (in certain parameter regimes) via symmetric Dirichlet forms. Furthermore, we derive regularity properties (Feller- properties and strong continuity properties) necessary for the applicability of popular numerical schemes to SABR-semigroups, and identify suitable Banach- and Hilbert spaces for these. Finally, we comment on the short time and large time asymptotic behaviour of SABR-type processes beyond the heat-kernel framework.

q-fin.MF↗

A remark on Gatheral's 'most-likely path approximation' of implied volatility

We give a new proof of the representation of implied volatility as a time-average of weighted expectations of local or stochastic volatility. With this proof we clarify the question of existence of 'forward implied variance' in the original derivation of Gatheral, who introduced this representation in his book 'The Volatility Surface'.

q-fin.PR↗

Consistent Recalibration of Yield Curve Models

The analytical tractability of affine (short rate) models, such as the Vasicek and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models, has made them a popular choice for modelling the dynamics of interest rates. However, in order to account properly for the dynamics of real data, these models need to exhibit time-dependent or even stochastic parameters. This in turn breaks their tractability, and modelling and simulating becomes an arduous task. We introduce a new class of Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) models that both fit the dynamics of real market data and remain tractable. We call these models consistent recalibration (CRC) models. These CRC models appear as limits of concatenations of forward rate increments, each belonging to a Hull-White extended affine factor model with possibly different parameters. That is, we construct HJM models from "tangent" affine models. We develop a theory for a continuous path version of such models and discuss their numerical implementations within the Vasicek and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross frameworks.

q-fin.MF↗

Consistent Re-Calibration of the Discrete-Time Multifactor Vasiček Model

The discrete-time multifactor Vasiček model is a tractable Gaussian spot rate model. Typically, two- or three-factor versions allow one to capture the dependence structure between yields with different times to maturity in an appropriate way. In practice, re-calibration of the model to the prevailing market conditions leads to model parameters that change over time. Therefore, the model parameters should be understood as being time-dependent or even stochastic. Following the consistent re-calibration (CRC) approach, we construct models as concatenations of yield curve increments of Hull-White extended multifactor Vasiček models with different parameters. The CRC approach provides attractive tractable models that preserve the no-arbitrage premise. As a numerical example, we fit Swiss interest rates using CRC multifactor Vasiček models.

q-fin.MF↗

Parabolic free boundary price formation models under market size fluctuations

In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes fluctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size fluctuations and present results on the long time asymptotic behavior and numerical evidence and conjectures on periodic, almost periodic and stochastic fluctuations. The numerical simulations extend the theoretical statements and give further insights into price formation dynamics.

math.AP↗

Pathwise construction of affine processes

Based on the theory of multivariate time changes for Markov processes, we show how to identify affine processes as solutions of certain time change equations. The result is a strong version of a theorem presented by J. Kallsen (2006) which provides a representation in law of an affine process as a time-change transformation of a family of independent Lévy processes.

math.PR↗

Discrete Time Term Structure Theory and Consistent Recalibration Models

We develop theory and applications of forward characteristic processes in discrete time following a seminal paper of Jan Kallsen and Paul Krühner. Particular emphasis is placed on the dynamics of volatility surfaces which can be easily formulated and implemented from the chosen discrete point of view. In mathematical terms we provide an algorithmic answer to the following question: describe a rich, still tractable class of discrete time stochastic processes, whose marginal distributions are given at initial time and which are free of arbitrage. In terms of mathematical finance we can construct models with pre-described (implied) volatility surface and quite general volatility surface dynamics. In terms of the works of Rene Carmona and Sergey Nadtochiy, we analyze the dynamics of tangent affine models. We believe that the discrete approach due to its technical simplicity will be important in term structure modelling.

q-fin.MF↗

Exotic one-parameter semigroups of endomorphisms of a symmetric cone

We construct an exotic one-parameter semigroup of endomorphims of a symmetric cone $C$, whose generator is not the sum of a Lie group generator and an endomorphism of $C$. The question is motivated by the theory of affine processes on symmetric cones, which plays an important role in mathematical finance. On the other hand, theoretical question that we solve in this paper seems to have been implicitly open even much longer then this motivation suggests.

math.RA↗

A convergence result for the Emery topology and a variant of the proof of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing

We show that \emph{No unbounded profit with bounded risk} (NUPBR) implies \emph{predictable uniform tightness} (P-UT), a boundedness property in the Emery topology which has been introduced by C. Stricker \cite{S:85}. Combining this insight with well known results from J. Mémin and L. Słominski \cite{MS:91} leads to a short variant of the proof of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing initially proved by F. Delbaen and W. Schachermayer \cite{DS:94}. The results are formulated in the general setting of admissible portfolio wealth processes as laid down by Y. Kabanov in \cite{kab:97}.

math.PR↗

Invariant manifolds with boundary for jump-diffusions

We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for stochastic invariance of finite dimensional submanifolds with boundary in Hilbert spaces for stochastic partial differential equations driven by Wiener processes and Poisson random measures.

math.PR↗

Fourier transform methods for pathwise covariance estimation in the presence of jumps

We provide a new non-parametric Fourier procedure to estimate the trajectory of the instantaneous covariance process (from discrete observations of a multidimensional price process) in the presence of jumps extending the seminal work Malliavin and Mancino~\cite{MM:02, MM:09}. Our approach relies on a modification of (classical) jump-robust estimators of integrated realized covariance to estimate the Fourier coefficients of the covariance trajectory. Using Fourier-Féjer inversion we reconstruct the path of the instantaneous covariance. We prove consistency and central limit theorem (CLT) and in particular that the asymptotic estimator variance is smaller by a factor $ 2/3$ in comparison to classical local estimators. The procedure is robust enough to allow for an iteration and we can show theoretically and empirically how to estimate the integrated realized covariance of the instantaneous stochastic covariance process. We apply these techniques to robust calibration problems for multivariate modeling in finance, i.e., the selection of a pricing measure by using time series and derivatives' price information simultaneously.

math.ST↗

The Gärtner-Ellis theorem, homogenization, and affine processes

We obtain a first order extension of the large deviation estimates in the Gärtner-Ellis theorem. In addition, for a given family of measures, we find a special family of functions having a similar Laplace principle expansion up to order one to that of the original family of measures. The construction of the special family of functions mentioned above is based on heat kernel expansions. Some of the ideas employed in the paper come from the theory of affine stochastic processes. For instance, we provide an explicit expansion with respect to the homogenization parameter of the rescaled cumulant generating function in the case of a generic continuous affine process. We also compute the coefficients in the homogenization expansion for the Heston model that is one of the most popular stock price models with stochastic volatility.

q-fin.MF↗

When roll-overs do not qualify as numéraire: bond markets beyond short rate paradigms

We investigate default-free bond markets where the standard relationship between a possibly existing bank account process and the term structure of bond prices is broken, i.e. the bank account process is not a valid numéraire. We argue that this feature is not the exception but rather the rule in bond markets when starting with, e.g., terminal bonds as numéraires. Our setting are general càdlàg processes as bond prices, where we employ directly methods from large financial markets. Moreover, we do not restrict price process to be semimartingales, which allows for example to consider markets driven by fractional Brownian motion. In the core of the article we relate the appropriate no arbitrage assumptions (NAFL), i.e. no asymptotic free lunch, to the existence of an equivalent local martingale measure with respect to the terminal bond as numéraire, and no arbitrage opportunities of the first kind (NAA1) to the existence of a supermartingale deflator, respectively. In all settings we obtain existence of a generalized bank account as a limit of convex combinations of roll-over bonds. Additionally we provide an alternative definition of the concept of a numéraire, leading to a possibly interesting connection to bubbles. If we can construct a bank account process through roll-overs, we can relate the impossibility of taking the bank account as numéraire to liquidity effects. Here we enter endogenously the arena of multiple yield curves. The theory is illustrated by several examples.

q-fin.PR↗

Path properties and regularity of affine processes on general state spaces

We provide a new proof for regularity of affine processes on general state spaces by methods from the theory of Markovian semimartingales. On the way to this result we also show that the definition of an affine process, namely as stochastically continuous time-homogeneous Markov process with exponential affine Fourier-Laplace transform, already implies the existence of a càdlàg version. This was one of the last open issues in the fundaments of affine processes.

math.PR↗

Regularity of affine processes on general state spaces

We consider a stochastically continuous, affine Markov process in the sense of Duffie, Filipovic and Schachermayer, with cadlag paths, on a general state space D, i.e. an arbitrary Borel subset of R^d. We show that such a process is always regular, meaning that its Fourier-Laplace transform is differentiable in time, with derivatives that are continuous in the transform variable. As a consequence, we show that generalized Riccati equations and Levy-Khintchine parameters for the process can be derived, as in the case of $D = R_+^m \times R^n$ studied in Duffie, Filipovic and Schachermayer (2003). Moreover, we show that when the killing rate is zero, the affine process is a semi-martingale with absolutely continuous characteristics up to its time of explosion. Our results generalize the results of Keller-Ressel, Schachermayer and Teichmann (2011) for the state space $R_+^m \times R^n$ and provide a new probabilistic approach to regularity.

math.PR↗

Polynomial processes and their applications to mathematical Finance

We introduce a class of Markov processes, called $m$-polynomial, for which the calculation of (mixed) moments up to order $m$ only requires the computation of matrix exponentials. This class contains affine processes, processes with quadratic diffusion coefficients, as well as Lévy-driven SDEs with affine vector fields. Thus, many popular models such as exponential Lévy models or affine models are covered by this setting. The applications range from statistical GMM estimation procedures to new techniques for option pricing and hedging. For instance, the efficient and easy computation of moments can be used for variance reduction techniques in Monte Carlo methods.

math.PR↗