arXiv subjects

Joseph Le Bihan

Publications and source records attributed to Joseph Le Bihan.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Unused power surge compromises U.S. road vehicles sustainability

Material and energy flows underpin sociotechnical metabolism. However, despite growing sustainability concerns over expanding material stocks and declining stock productivity, the link between material use and energy consumption remains poorly understood. This gap reflects a limited distinction between structures and the activity they enable, and the lack of quantification of the installed power of energy consuming structures. Here we reconstruct the long-term growth dynamics of U.S. road vehicles, distinguishing professional and consumer assets. We show that installed power, mass, and fuel energy use follow divergent patterns within and across vehicle categories. By introducing the usage factor as a metric linking structure to activity, we quantify decoupling mechanisms such as engine oversizing and fleet redundancy, which drive up material immobilization. As electrification requires large-scale fleet replacement, our findings highlight that avoiding power oversized vehicles could reduce material demand, emphasizing the need to account for structure-activity decoupling in energy transition policies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Connecting Electrical Grid Length and Material Stock to Population Density: Comparison of a French-Calibrated Scaling with 35 Electrified Countries

The expansion of global electricity distribution systems necessitates the deployment of massive infrastructure. Assessing its implications from a spatial and material perspective requires an understanding of the core drivers of a distribution grid configuration. Our model samples substation locations using a non-linear relationship with population density and constructs a proxy network applying the Kruskal algorithm. This streamlined approach generates a proxy grid layout at the local scale and provides reasonable aggregate estimates of the total network length at the national scale. Using highly granular population data, this local model reveals a connection between population spread and distribution grid, which appears to persist at larger scales. Potentially driven by the emergent properties of population scaling laws, the aggregated network characteristics appear to be well described by multivariate power laws on aggregated population and area. Benchmarked against reported aggregate data for 35 countries, these results provide new multi-scale tools for characterizing electrical infrastructure and reveal key determinants of distribution grid extent. Combining network length estimates with material intensity data, we derive country-scale inventories of copper invested in medium-voltage lines, bounded by aerial and underground cabling assumptions. The same scaling law directly yields a macro-level proxy for copper mass as a function of population and area, extending the framework toward prospective assessments of material demand in electricity grid expansion.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Beyond 2050: From deployment to renewal of the global solar and wind energy system

The global energy transition depends on large-scale photovoltaic (PV) and wind power deployment. While 2050 targets suggest a transition endpoint, maintaining these systems beyond mid-century requires continuous renewal, marking a fundamental yet often overlooked shift in industrial dynamics. This study examines the transition from initial deployment to long-term renewal, using a two-phase growth model: an exponential expansion followed by capacity stabilization. By integrating this pattern with a Weibull distribution of PV panel and wind turbine lifespans, we estimate the annual production required for both expansion and maintenance. Our findings highlight two key factors influencing production dynamics: deployment speed and lifespan. When deployment occurs faster than the average lifespan, production overshoots and exhibits damped oscillations due to successive installation and replacement cycles. In contrast, gradual deployment leads to a smooth increase before stabilizing at the renewal rate. Given current scenarios, the PV industry is likely to experience significant oscillations - ranging from 15 % to 60 % of global production - while wind power follows a monotonic growth trajectory. These oscillations, driven by ambitious energy targets, may result in cycles of overproduction and underproduction, affecting industrial stability. Beyond solar and wind, this study underscores a broader challenge in the energy transition: shifting from infrastructure expansion to long-term maintenance. Addressing this phase is crucial for ensuring the resilience and sustainability of renewable energy systems beyond 2050.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Modeling Technological Deployment and Renewal: Monotonic vs. Oscillating Industrial Dynamics

This study proposes a new model based on a classic S-curve that describes deployment and stabilization at maximum capacity. In addition, the model extends to the post-growth plateau, where technological capacity is renewed according to the distribution of equipment lifespans. We obtain two qualitatively different results. In the case of "fast" deployment, characterized by a short deployment time in relation to the average equipment lifetime, production is subject to significant oscillations. In the case of "slow" deployment, production increases monotonically until it reaches a renewal plateau. These results are counterintuitively validated by two case studies: nuclear power plants as a fast deployment and smartphones as a slow deployment. These results are important for long-term industrial planning, as they enable us to anticipate future business cycles. Our study demonstrates that business cycles can originate endogenously from industrial dynamics of installation and renewal, contrasting with traditional views attributing fluctuations to exogenous macroeconomic factors. These endogenous cycles interact with broader trends, potentially being modulated, amplified, or attenuated by macroeconomic conditions. This dynamic of deployment and renewal is relevant for long-life infrastructure technologies, such as those supporting the renewable energy sector and has major policy implications for industry players.

physics.soc-ph↗