arXiv subjects

Joseph Simon

Publications and source records attributed to Joseph Simon.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Overmassive supermassive black holes in SDSS close galaxy pairs

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and their host-galaxies coevolve through channels such as hierarchical merging and AGN feedback, establishing tight scaling relations between SMBH masses and properties of the host-galaxy. These scaling relations, particularly those with host-galaxy bulge mass (M${_\text{b}}$) and stellar velocity dispersion ($\sigma$), are widely used to estimate SMBH masses. Galaxy mergers drive gas into the centers of galaxies, enhancing SMBH growth and stellar bulge growth but not necessarily in tandem, so it is necessary to determine if galaxies undergoing a merger still follow SMBH-host-galaxy scaling relations. In this study, we explore scaling relations in galaxy mergers by taking advantage of the well-established value-added catalogs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. These catalogs provide close galaxy pairs, AGN broad lines for SMBH mass measurements, and bulge-disk decomposed stellar masses. We compare SMBH mass estimates from M$_\bullet-$M${_\text{b}}$ to SMBH mass estimates from AGN broad lines and find that SMBH mass growth outpaces the bulge for AGN residing in the secondary (less massive) bulge and for smaller physical separations between galaxies in a pair. Using our full sample of close galaxy pairs, we find that M$_\bullet-$M${_\text{b}}$ and M$_\bullet- \sigma$ predict significantly different fractions of major and minor black hole mergers with M$_\bullet-$M${_\text{b}}$ predicting black hole mass ratios closer to 1:1 and $6-20\%$ more major mergers overall. These results have major implications, including for predictions of astrophysical gravitational-waves and high-redshift overmassive SMBHs.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Generalized Non-linear Bayesian Pulsar Timing with Enterprise

In this study, we use the Bayesian methods in the Enterprise package to examine the fully general parameterization of pulsar timing models in tandem with noise. We investigate four pulsars, PSR J1600$-$3053, PSR J2043+1711, PSR J0740+6620, and PSR J1640+2224, through the lens of Bayesian timing. These four are selected as they are well-studied, but exhibit interesting characteristics under the lens of Bayesian timing. Our new pulsar mass constraints (medians and 68\% confidence intervals) for our fully general non-linear Bayesian timing models are $m_{\mathrm{p}}=1.6(1)~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ for PSR J2043+1711 and $m_{\mathrm{p}}=2.3^{+0.9}_{-0.7}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ for PSR J1600$-$3053 both using the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data release, and $m_{\mathrm{p}}=2.06(6)~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ for PSR J0740+6620 using the data from Fonseca, et al., 2021. We investigate the effects on placing physical priors on timing model parameters, including restricting the upper limit on the pulsar mass for PSR J1640+2224, which has a mass often estimated to be greater than $3~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$. We find \ark{that restricting the allowed sampling space of the pulsar mass for PSR J1640+2224 to} $m_{\mathrm{p}}<3~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ results in a pulsar mass of $m_{\mathrm{p}}=2.2(5)~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ for PSR J1640+2224 using the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data release. For the first time, we find evidence for intrinsic red noise in PSR J2043+1711. We show how fully general Bayesian timing can better model the interplay of the intrinsic noise and the timing parameters.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Pulsar Timing Array Sensitivity to Anisotropy: Empirical Sensitivity Curves, Scaling Relations, and the Multi-Resolution Pixel Basis

We quantify pulsar timing array (PTA) sensitivity to anisotropy in the gravitational wave background using the cross-correlation based Fisher information matrix in the pixel and spherical harmonic bases. We use a set of simulations to empirically determine scaling relations of a PTA's sensitivity to anisotropy with the number of pulsars $N_\mathrm{psr}$ in the array, the error $\delta t$ on the times of arrival, the frequency $f_\mathrm{GW}$ of the gravitational waves, and the angular scale $\Delta\Omega$ of the anisotropy. The sensitivity scales approximately as $N_\mathrm{psr}^{0.8}$, $\delta t^{-0.08}$, and $\Delta\Omega^{1.6}-\Delta\Omega^{2.1}$ (depending on the ranges of $\ell$ and $m$ under consideration). In addition, we use realistic simulations to project the NANOGrav PTA sensitivity to a 30-year baseline and quantify the growth in sensitivity at several timeslices. Except at the lowest frequencies, we find negligible effect on sensitivity through increasing the observation duration only. Finally, we introduce a multi-resolution pixel basis motivated by the large dependence of the sensitivity on sky location, and demonstrate the operation of the basis through a set of injections and recoveries.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Customized Chromatic Noise Models

Pulsar timing arrays conduct low-frequency gravitational wave searches, which require comprehensive accounting of various noise sources to achieve robust results. Interstellar propagation effects (e.g., dispersion and scattering) are especially complex noise sources, introducing chromatic delays that can reduce sensitivity to gravitational waves and bias their inference if left unmodeled. These delays also strongly depend on the line of sight properties to each individual pulsar. To address this, we present customized chromatic noise models for 67 pulsars in the NANOGrav 15 yr dataset. These models are selected from an expanded suite of Gaussian processes to simultaneously characterize multiple types of chromatic delays and are tailored to each pulsar's dataset. Alongside probing the interstellar medium, we use these models to infer the solar wind electron density over the course of $\sim 1.5$ solar cycles. We also find evidence for non-dispersive chromatic delays in 21 out of 67 NANOGrav pulsars. After applying our chromatic models, we observe significant impacts on the inference of achromatic noise in 19 out of 67 pulsars, finding in several cases that a previously significant achromatic noise process can be partially or entirely described as chromatic. These results demonstrate that refined noise modeling is essential to enhance the sensitivity and accuracy of low-frequency gravitational wave searches with pulsar timing arrays.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Gravitational Wave Measurement of the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ Intrinsic Scatter at High Redshift

The observed GWB spectrum is higher in amplitude than model predictions by a factor of 2-3. Using a semi-analytic model, we evaluate the effect of a high-scatter supermassive black hole (SMBH) scaling relation ($M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$) on models of the nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). By implementing an intrinsic scatter of the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation, which is larger at higher redshift, but matches local observations, we find that the amplitude of GWB models increases to be consistent with the low-frequency end of the GWB spectrum. This amplitude increase is not uniform across frequencies, a strongly evolving scatter preferentially increases the number density of the most massive SMBHs which, in the GWB spectrum, minimizes the strength of the low-frequency turnover. Our models with positively evolving intrinsic scatter can reproduce the electromagnetically observed overmassive SMBHs at $4 < z < 6$ without changing the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ normalization though we find that including moderate normalization evolution marginally improves fits to the GWB data. We conclude that the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation which best describes the available GWB and electromagnetic data sets has intrinsic scatter that evolves as $\varepsilon(z) = \varepsilon_0 + (0.56 \pm 0.4) \log_{10}(1 + z)$ and normalization that evolves as $\alpha(z) = \alpha_0 (1 + z)^{0.84 \pm 0.35}$. The results of this work imply that the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation we see today is not universal throughout cosmic time and that a diversity of seeding models and growth mechanisms may be at play in the early stages of SMBH-galaxy evolution.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Piecewise Power-Law Reconstruction of the Gravitational-Wave Background

The NANOGrav 15-year (NG15) data set provides evidence for a gravitational-wave background (GWB) signal at nanohertz frequencies, which is expected to originate either from a cosmic population of inspiraling supermassive black-hole binaries or new particle physics in the early Universe. A firm identification of the source of the NG15 signal requires an accurate reconstruction of its frequency spectrum. In this paper, we provide such a spectral characterization of the NG15 signal based on a piecewise power-law (PPL) ansatz that strikes a balance between existing alternatives in the literature. Our PPL reconstruction is more flexible than the standard constant-power-law model, which describes the GWB spectrum in terms of only two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index gamma. Concurrently, it better approximates physically realistic GWB spectra -- especially those of cosmological origin -- than the free spectral model, since the latter allows for arbitrary variations in the GWB amplitude from one frequency bin to the next. Our PPL reconstruction of the NG15 signal relies on individual PPL models with a fixed number of internal nodes (i.e., constant power law, broken power law, doubly broken power law, etc.) that are ultimately combined in a Bayesian model average. The data products resulting from our analysis provide the basis for fast refits of spectral GWB models.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Chromatic Noise Characterization & Mitigation with Time-Domain Kernels

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) have recently entered the detection era, quickly moving beyond the goal of simply improving sensitivity at the lowest frequencies for the sake of observing the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB), and focusing on its accurate spectral characterization. While all PTA collaborations around the world use Fourier-domain Gaussian processes to model the GWB and intrinsic long time-correlated (red) noise, techniques to model the time-correlated radio frequency-dependent (chromatic) processes have varied from collaboration to collaboration. Here we test a new class of models for PTA data, Gaussian processes based on time-domain kernels that model the statistics of the chromatic processes starting from the covariance matrix. As we will show, these models can be effectively equivalent to Fourier-domain models in mitigating chromatic noise. This work presents a method for Bayesian model selection across the various choices of kernel as well as deterministic chromatic models for non-stationary chromatic events and the solar wind. As PTAs turn towards high frequency (>1/yr) sensitivity, the size of the basis used to model these processes will need to increase, and these time-domain models present some computational efficiencies compared to Fourier-domain models.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Preferential Accretion onto the Secondary Black Hole Strengthens Gravitational Wave Signals

Pulsar timing arrays have recently found evidence for nanohertz gravitational waves that are consistent with being produced by a cosmological population of binary supermassive black holes (SMBHs). However, the amplitude of this gravitational wave background is larger than predicted from theoretical and empirical models of SMBH binary populations. We investigate preferential accretion onto the secondary, less massive SMBH of the binary as a potential solution to this discrepancy. We carry out the first observationally-based analysis of the effect of preferential accretion on the SMBH binary population, and we find that preferential accretion onto the secondary SMBH increases the binary SMBH mass ratio, causing many minor galaxy mergers to lead to major SMBH mergers. The fraction of SMBH mergers that are major mergers increases by a factor of 2-3 when preferential accretion is included. Further, we find that only a small amount of preferential accretion (10% total SMBH mass growth) is needed to bring the predicted gravitational wave background amplitude into agreement with observations. Preferential accretion has an even larger effect on gravitational wave signals detected by LISA, which will probe SMBH binaries at higher redshifts where the environment is more gas-rich, and can also help explain the rapid build up of overmassive black holes at high redshifts observed by the James Webb Space Telescope. It also shortens the time to the first detection of an individual SMBH binary emitting continuous waves. Preferential accretion strengthens the gravitational wave signals produced by any binary embedded in a circumbinary disk, including LIGO sources.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Inferring Mbh-Mbulge Evolution from the Gravitational Wave Background

We test the impact of an evolving supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass scaling relation (Mbh-Mbulge) on the predictions for the gravitational wave background (GWB). The observed GWB amplitude is 2-3 times higher than predicted by astrophysically informed models which suggests the need to revise the assumptions in those models. We compare a semi-analytic model's ability to reproduce the observed GWB spectrum with a static versus evolving-amplitude Mbh-Mbulge relation. We additionally consider the influence of the choice of galaxy stellar mass function on the modeled GWB spectra. Our models are able to reproduce the GWB amplitude with either a large number density of massive galaxies or a positively evolving Mbh-Mbulge amplitude (i.e., the Mbh / Mbulge ratio was higher in the past). If we assume that the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude does not evolve, our models require a galaxy stellar mass function that implies an undetected population of massive galaxies (Mstellar > 10^11 Msun at z > 1). When the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude is allowed to evolve, we can model the GWB spectrum with all fiducial values and an Mbh-Mbulge amplitude that evolves as alpha(z) = alpha_0 (1 + z)^(1.04 +/- 0.5).

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Targeted Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

We present the first targeted searches for continuous gravitational waves (CWs) from 114 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that may host supermassive black hole binaries, using the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. By incorporating electromagnetic priors on sky location, distance, redshift, and CW frequency, our strain and chirp mass upper limits are typically improved by a factor of $\sim 2$ (median 2.2) relative to all-sky limits at the same frequency. Bayesian comparisons against a model including only a Hellings-Downs correlated background disfavors a CW signal for all targets, with a mean Bayes factor of $0.73 \pm 0.32$. Two targets have Bayes factors slightly above unity, but coherence tests, random targeting experiments, and a conservative accounting of the 114-target trials factor all indicate that they are consistent with noise. We use these two candidates as worked examples to illustrate an end-to-end targeted CW search analysis and a suite of follow up tests that future promising candidates would need to pass. We find that the electromagnetic interpretations of both candidates are ambiguous, and we update the constraints on a putative binary in 3C 66B, ruling out part of its previously allowed parameter space. Ultimately, our results demonstrate the current sensitivity of targeted pulsar timing array searches for CWs and define a roadmap for future multimessenger CW detections.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Enhanced Star Formation and Black Hole Accretion Rates in Galaxy Mergers in IllustrisTNG50

Many theoretical and observational studies have suggested that galaxy mergers may trigger enhanced star formation or active galactic nuclei (AGN) activity. We present an analysis of merging and nonmerging galaxies from $0.2 \leq z \leq 3$ in the IllustrisTNG50 simulation. These galaxies encompass a range of masses ($M_\star > 10^{8}M_\odot$), multiple merger stages, and mass ratios ($\geq1:10$). We examine the effect that galaxy mergers have on star formation and black hole accretion rates in the TNG50 universe. We additionally investigate how galaxy and black hole mass, merger stage, merger mass ratio, and redshift affect these quantities. Mergers in our sample show excess specific star formation rates (sSFR) at $z \leq 3$ and enhanced specific black hole accretion rates (sBHAR) at $z \lesssim 2$. The difference between sSFRs and sBHARs in the merging sample compared to the non-merging sample increases as redshift decreases. Additionally, we show that these enhancements persist for at least $\sim1$ Gyr after the merger event. Investigating how mergers behave in the TNG50 simulation throughout cosmic time enables both a better appreciation of the importance of spatial resolution in cosmological simulations and a better basis to understand our high-$z$ universe with observations from $\textit{JWST}$.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The impact of applying black hole-host galaxy scaling relations to large galaxy populations

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) with dynamically measured masses have shown empirical correlations with host galaxy properties. These correlations are often the only method available to estimate SMBH masses and gather statistics for large galaxy populations across a range of redshifts, even though the scaling relations themselves are derived from a small subset of nearby galaxies. Depending on the scaling relation used, estimated SMBH masses can vary significantly. The most widely used scaling relations are the M$_{BH}-$M$_{\mathrm{bulge}}$ and M$_{BH}- \sigma$ relations, where M$_{\mathrm{bulge}}$ is galaxy bulge mass and $\sigma$ is the bulge velocity dispersion. In this paper, we determine how severely the choice of scaling relation impacts SMBH mass estimates for different subsets of a large galaxy population. For this analysis we use a sample of $\sim$ 400,000 galaxies, including 1,240 Type 1 AGN from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We calculate SMBH masses from M$_{BH}-$M$_{\mathrm{bulge}}$ and M$_{BH}- \sigma$ and compare to single-epoch virial SMBH masses from broad-line H$\beta$, which are derived independently of black hole-host galaxy scaling relations. We find that SMBH masses derived from the single-epoch virial relation for H$\beta$ are better reproduced by M$_{BH}- \sigma$ than M$_{BH}-$M$_{\mathrm{bulge}}$. Finally, in cases where $\sigma$ and M$_{\mathrm{bulge}}$ cannot be measured directly, we show that it is possible to infer $\sigma$ from photometry with more accuracy than we can infer M$_{\mathrm{bulge}}$.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: A Case Study for Simplified Dispersion Measure Modeling for PSR J1455-3330 and the Impact on Gravitational Wave Sensitivity

Evidence for a low-frequency gravitational-wave background using pulsar timing arrays has generated recent interest into its underlying contributing sources. However, multiple investigations have seen that the significance of the evidence does not change with choice of pulsar modeling techniques but the resulting parameters from the gravitational wave searches do. PSR J1455-3330 is one of the longest-observed pulsars in the array monitored by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) but showed no evidence for long-timescale red noise, either intrinsic or the common signal found among many pulsars in the array. In this work, we argue that NANOGrav's piecewise-constant function used to model variations in radio-frequency-dependent dispersive delay should not be used for this pulsar, and a much simpler physical model of a fixed solar wind density plus a linear trend in dispersion measure is preferred. When the original model is replaced, (i) the pulsar's timing parallax signal changes from an upper limit to a significant detection, (ii) red noise becomes significant, and (iii) the red noise is consistent with the common signal found for the other pulsars. Neither of these signals are radio-frequency dependent. While the same physical motivation will not apply to many of the pulsars currently used in pulsar timing arrays, we argue for careful physically-motivated timing and noise modeling of pulsars used in precision timing experiments.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The Tantalizing Case of the Quasar J0950+5128 -- I. Presentation of the Data and Detailed Exploration of the Binary Supermassive Black Hole Scenario

Spectroscopic observations of the quasar J0950$+$5128 spanning 22 years reveal monotonic radial velocity variations in its broad H$\beta$ emission line. Moreover, the line profile becomes broader over time, necessitating careful measurements. We present robust H$\beta$ velocity shift measurements obtained via cross correlation, applied to both the full spectra and to isolated broad H$\beta$ components derived from spectral decomposition. We also examine the light curves for variability consistent with the spectroscopic trends. Using Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis we find no significant periodic signal. We consider several interpretations for the observed changes, including a binary supermassive black hole, dust-cloud obscuration, outflows, a recoiling black hole, and a single perturbed, disk-like broad-line region. We deem the binary and perturbed broad-line region scenarios to be physically plausible. The binary interpretation is the only one for which we can immediately compare a physical model to the available data. Thus, we incorporate radial velocity ''jitter'' to emulate typical quasar variability and fit the radial velocity curve with a Keplerian model to examine whether it can reproduce the observations. In this context, the available observations trace only a segment of the putative orbit. The fit yields a period of 33 years (observed frame) and an eccentricity of 0.65, with lower limits on the semi-major axis and black hole mass of $10^{-2}\;$pc and $10^7\;{\rm M}_\odot$, respectively. Thus, J0950$+$5128 is a binary candidate deserving further study. The single, perturbed broad-line region interpretation remains viable but requires additional observations and modeling for further evaluation. Continued monitoring is, therefore, essential.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Rapid Construction of Joint Pulsar Timing Array Datasets: The Lite Method

The International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA)'s second data release (IPTA DR2) combines decades of observations of 65 millisecond pulsars from 7 radio telescopes. IPTA datasets should be the most sensitive datasets to nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs), but take years to assemble, often excluding valuable recent data. To address this, we introduce the IPTA "Lite" analysis, where a Figure of Merit is used to select an optimal PTA dataset to analyze for each pulsar, enabling immediate access to new data and preliminary results prior to full combination. We test the capabilities of the Lite analysis using IPTA DR2, finding that "DR2 Lite" can be used to detect the common red noise process with an amplitude of $A = 4.8^{+1.8}_{-1.8} \times 10^{-15}$ at $\gamma = 13/3$. This amplitude is slightly large in comparison to the combined analysis, and likely biased high as DR2 Lite is more sensitive to systematic errors from individual pulsars than the full dataset. Furthermore, although there is no strong evidence for Hellings-Downs correlations in IPTA DR2, we still find the full dataset is better at resolving Hellings-Downs correlations than DR2 Lite. Alongside the Lite analysis, we also find that analyzing a subset of pulsars from IPTA DR2, available at a hypothetical "early" stage of combination (EDR2), yields equally competitive results as the full dataset. Looking ahead, the Lite method will enable rapid synthesis of the latest PTA data, offering preliminary GW constraints before the superior full dataset combinations are available.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a search for nonlinear gravitational wave memory in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find no significant evidence for memory signals in the dataset, with a maximum Bayes factor of 3.1 in favor of a model including memory. We therefore place upper limits on the strain of potential gravitational wave memory events as a function of sky location and observing epoch. We find upper limits that are not always more constraining than previous NANOGrav results. We show that it is likely due to the increase in common red noise between the 12.5-year and 15-year NANOGrav datasets.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 Yr Data Set: Removing Pulsars One by One from the Pulsar Timing Array

Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15-year pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese PTAs. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. To explore the internal consistency of this result we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic gravitational wave background in the NANOGrav 15-year data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Harmonic Analysis of the Pulsar Angular Correlations

Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational wave background with the Hellings-Downs angular correlations, expected from general relativity. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominately quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlations into a sum of Legendre polynomials and use a Bayesian analysis to constrain their coefficients with the 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). When including Legendre polynomials with multipoles $\ell \geq 2$, we only find a significant signal in the quadrupole with an amplitude consistent with general relativity and non-zero at the $\sim 95\%$ confidence level and a Bayes factor of 200. When we include multipoles $\ell \leq 1$, the Bayes factor evidence for quadrupole correlations decreases by more than an order of magnitude due to evidence for a monopolar signal at approximately 4 nHz which has also been noted in previous analyses of the NANOGrav 15-year data. Further work needs to be done in order to better characterize the properties of this monopolar signal and its effect on the evidence for quadrupolar angular correlations.

astro-ph.HE↗