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Josh Borrow

Publications and source records attributed to Josh Borrow.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

The THESAN-ZOOM project: Long-term imprints of external reionization on galaxy evolution

We investigate the impact of ionizing external ultraviolet (UV) radiation on low-mass haloes ($M_{h}<10^{10}M_\odot$) at high redshift using $1140M_\odot$ baryonic resolution zoom-in simulations of seven regions from the THESAN-ZOOM project. We compare three simulation sets that differ in the treatment of external UV radiation: one employing a uniform UV background initiated at z=10.6 in addition to radiation transport for local sources, another with the same background starting at z=5.5, and the default configuration in which the large-scale radiation field from the parent THESAN-1 simulation box acts as a boundary condition. The multi-phase interstellar medium (ISM) model, combined with its high mass resolution, allows us to resolve all star-forming haloes and capture the back-reaction of ionizing radiation on galaxy properties during the epoch of reionization. When present, external UV radiation efficiently unbinds gas in haloes with masses below $10^9M_\odot$ and suppresses subsequent star formation. As a result, in simulations with early reionization, minihaloes fail to form stars from pristine gas, leading to reduced metal enrichment of gas later accreted by more massive haloes. Consequently, haloes with masses below $10^{10}M_\odot$ at all simulated epochs (z>3) exhibit lower metallicities and altered metallicity distributions. The more accurate and realistic shielding from external UV radiation, achieved through self-consistent radiative transfer, permits the existence of a cold but low-density gas phase down to z=3. These findings highlight the importance of capturing a patchy reionization history in high-resolution simulations targeting high-redshift galaxy formation. We conclude that at minimum, a semi-numerical model that incorporates spatially inhomogeneous reionization and a non-uniform metallicity floor is necessary to accurately emulate metal enrichment in minihaloes.

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The THESAN-ZOOM project: Population III star formation continues until the end of reionization

Population III (Pop III) stars are the first stars in the Universe, forming from pristine, metal-free gas and marking the end of the cosmic dark ages. Their formation rate is expected to sharply decline after redshift $z \approx 15$ due to metal enrichment from previous generations of stars. In this paper, we analyze 14 zoom-in simulations from the THESAN-ZOOM project, which evolves different haloes from the THESAN-1 cosmological box down to redshift $z=3$. The high mass resolution of up to $142 M_\odot$ per cell in the gas phase combined with a multiphase model of the interstellar medium (ISM), radiative transfer including Lyman-Werner radiation, dust physics, and a non-equilibrium chemistry network that tracks molecular hydrogen, allows for a realistic but still approximate description of Pop III star formation in pristine gas. Our results show that Pop III stars continue to form in low-mass haloes ranging from $10^6 M_\odot$ to $10^9 M_\odot$ until the end of reionization at around $z=5$. At this stage, photoevaporation suppresses further star formation in these minihaloes, which subsequently merge into larger central haloes. Hence, the remnants of Pop III stars primarily reside in the satellite galaxies of larger haloes at lower redshifts. While direct detection of Pop III stars remains elusive, these results hint that lingering primordial star formation could leave observable imprints or indirectly affect the properties of high-redshift galaxies. Explicit Pop III feedback and specialized initial mass function modelling within the THESAN-ZOOM framework would further help interpreting emerging constraints from the James Webb Space Telescope.

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The THESAN-ZOOM project: Star formation efficiency from giant molecular clouds to galactic scale in high-redshift starbursts

Star formation in galaxies is inherently complex, involving the interplay of physical processes over a hierarchy of spatial scales. In this work, we investigate the connection between global (galaxy-scale) and local (cloud-scale) star formation efficiencies (SFEs) at high redshifts ($z\gtrsim 3$), using the state-of-the-art cosmological zoom-in simulation suite THESAN-ZOOM. We find that the galaxy-scale average SFE, $\langle ε^{\rm gal}_{\rm ff} \rangle$, scales with $M_{\rm halo}^{1/3}\,(1+z)^{1/2} \sim V_{\rm vir}$, consistent with expectations from feedback-regulated models. On cloud scales, we identify giant molecular clouds (GMCs) in a broad sample of high-redshift starbursts spanning a wide range of halo masses and redshifts. Star formation in these systems is predominantly hosted by filamentary GMCs embedded in a dense and highly turbulent interstellar medium (ISM). GMCs exhibit remarkably universal properties, including mass function, size, turbulence, and surface density, regardless of the environment in which they are identified. The global gas depletion time (and the Kennicutt-Schmidt relation) is determined by the GMC mass fraction in the ISM, while the cloud-scale SFE shows little variation. In particular, we find a nearly constant gas surface density of $Σ_{\rm GMC} \approx 70\,{\rm M}_{\odot}\,{\rm pc}^{-2}$ across different host galaxies. Nevertheless, we identify two regimes where phases with high SFE can arise. First, stars may form efficiently in the shock fronts generated by feedback from a preceding starburst. Second, the increasing background dark matter surface density with redshift may contribute to the gravitational potential of clouds at $z \gtrsim 8$ and confine them in high-SFE phases over extended periods.

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The THESAN-ZOOM project: Star-formation efficiencies in high-redshift galaxies

Recent JWST observations hint at unexpectedly intense cosmic star-formation in the early Universe, often attributed to enhanced star-formation efficiencies (SFEs). Here, we analyze the SFE in THESAN-ZOOM, a novel zoom-in radiation-hydrodynamic simulation campaign of high-redshift ($z \gtrsim 3$) galaxies employing a state-of-the-art galaxy formation model resolving the multiphase interstellar medium (ISM). The halo-scale SFE ($ε^{\ast}_{\rm halo}$) - the fraction of baryons accreted by a halo that are converted to stars - follows a double power-law dependence on halo mass, with a mild redshift evolution above $M_{\rm halo} \gtrsim 10^{9.5}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$. The power-law slope is roughly $1/3$ at large halo masses, consistent with expectations when gas outflows are momentum-driven. At lower masses, the slope is roughly $2/3$ and is more aligned with the energy-driven outflow scenario. $ε^{\ast}_{\rm halo}$ is a factor of $2-3$ larger than commonly assumed in empirical galaxy-formation models at $M_{\rm halo} \lesssim 10^{11}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$. On galactic (kpc) scales, the Kennicutt-Schmidt (KS) relation of neutral gas is universal in THESAN-ZOOM, following $Σ_{\rm SFR} \propto Σ_{\rm gas}^2$, indicative of a turbulent energy balance in the ISM maintained by stellar feedback. The rise of $ε^{\ast}_{\rm halo}$ with halo mass can be traced primarily to increasing gas surface densities in massive galaxies, while the underlying KS relation and neutral, star-forming gas fraction remain unchanged. Although the increase in $ε^{\ast}_{\rm halo}$ with redshift is relatively modest, it is sufficient to explain the large observed number density of UV-bright galaxies at $z \gtrsim 12$. However, reproducing the brightest sources at $M_{\rm UV} \lesssim -21$ may require extrapolating the SFE beyond the halo mass range directly covered by THESAN-ZOOM.

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The THESAN project: galaxy sizes during the epoch of reionization

We investigate galaxy sizes at redshift $z\gtrsim 6$ with the cosmological radiation-magneto-hydrodynamic simulation suite THESAN(-HR). These simulations simultaneously capture the reionization of the large-scale intergalactic medium and resolved galaxy properties. The intrinsic size ($r^{\ast}_{1/2}$) of simulated galaxies increases moderately with stellar mass at $M_{\ast} \lesssim 10^{8}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$ and decreases fast at larger masses, resulting in a hump feature at $M_{\ast}\sim 10^{8}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$ that is insensitive to redshift. Low-mass galaxies are in the initial phase of size growth and are better described by a spherical shell model with feedback-driven gas outflows competing with the cold inflows. In contrast, massive galaxies fit better with the disk formation model. They generally experience a phase of rapid compaction and gas depletion, likely driven by internal disk instability rather than external processes. We identify four compact quenched galaxies in the $(95.5\,{\rm cMpc})^{3}$ volume of THESAN-1 at $z\simeq 6$, and their quenching follows reaching a characteristic stellar surface density akin to the massive compact galaxies at cosmic noon. Compared to observations, we find that the median UV effective radius ($R^{\rm UV}_{\rm eff}$) of simulated galaxies is at least three times larger than the observed ones at $M_{\ast}\lesssim 10^{9}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$ or $M_{\rm UV}\gtrsim -20$ at $6 \lesssim z \lesssim 10$. This inconsistency, related to the hump feature of the intrinsic size--mass relation, persists across many other cosmological simulations with different galaxy formation models and demonstrates the potential of using galaxy morphology to constrain the physics of galaxy formation at high redshifts.

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Brightest Cluster Galaxy Offsets in Cold Dark Matter

The distribution of offsets between the brightest cluster galaxies of galaxy clusters and the centroid of their dark matter distributions is a promising probe of the underlying dark matter physics. In particular, since this distribution is sensitive to the shape of the potential in galaxy cluster cores, it constitutes a test of dark matter self-interaction on the largest mass scales in the universe. We examine these offsets in three suites of modern cosmological simulations; IllustrisTNG, MillenniumTNG and BAHAMAS. For clusters above $10^{14}\rm{M_\odot}$, we examine the dependence of the offset distribution on gravitational softening length, the method used to identify centroids, redshift, mass, baryonic physics, and establish the stability of our results with respect to various nuisance parameter choices. We find that offsets are overwhelmingly measured to be smaller than the minimum converged length scale in each simulation, with a median offset of $\sim1\rm{kpc}$ in the highest resolution simulation considered, TNG300-1, which uses a gravitational softening length of $1.48\rm{kpc}$. We also find that centroids identified via source extraction on smoothed dark matter and stellar particle data are consistent with the potential minimum, but that observationally relevant methods sensitive to cluster strong gravitational lensing scales, or those using gas as a tracer for the potential can overestimate offsets by factors of $\sim10$ and $\sim30$, respectively. This has the potential to reduce tensions with existing offset measurements which have served as evidence for a nonzero dark matter self-interaction cross section.

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The THESAN project: connecting ionized bubble sizes to their local environments during the Epoch of Reionization

An important characteristic of cosmic hydrogen reionization is the growth of ionized gas bubbles surrounding early luminous objects. Ionized bubble sizes are beginning to be probed using Lyman-$α$ emission from high-redshift galaxies, and will also be probed by upcoming 21-cm maps. We present results from a study of bubble sizes using the state-of-the-art THESAN radiation-hydrodynamics simulation suite, which self-consistently models radiation transport and realistic galaxy formation. We employ the mean-free path method, and track the evolution of the effective ionized bubble size at each point ($R_{\rm eff}$) throughout the Epoch of Reionization. We show there is a slow growth period for regions ionized early, but a rapid "flash ionization" process for regions ionized later as they immediately enter a large, pre-existing bubble. We also find that bright sources are preferentially in larger bubbles, and find consistency with recent observational constraints at $z \gtrsim 9$, but tension with idealized Lyman-$α$ damping-wing models at $z \approx 7$. We find that high overdensity regions have larger characteristic bubble sizes, but the correlation decreases as reionization progresses, likely due to runaway formation of large percolated bubbles. Finally, we compare the redshift at which a region transitions from neutral to ionized ($z_{\rm reion}$) with the time it takes to reach a given bubble size and conclude that $z_{\rm reion}$ is a reasonable local probe of small-scale bubble size statistics ($R_\text{eff} \lesssim 1\,\rm{cMpc}$). However, for larger bubbles, the correspondence between $z_{\rm reion}$ and size statistics weakens due to the time delay between the onset of reionization and the expansion of large bubbles, particularly at high redshifts.

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The Velocity Dispersion Function for Quiescent Galaxies in Massive Clusters from IllustrisTNG

We derive the central stellar velocity dispersion function for quiescent galaxies in 280 massive clusters with $\log (M_{200} / M_{\odot}) > 14$ in IllustrisTNG300. The velocity dispersion function is an independent tracer of the dark matter mass distribution of subhalos in galaxy clusters. Based on the IllustrisTNG cluster catalog, we select quiescent member subhalos with a specific star formation rate $< 2 \times 10^{-11}$ yr${^-1}$ and stellar mass $\log (M_{*} / M_{\odot}) > 9$. We then simulate fiber spectroscopy to measure the stellar velocity dispersion of the simulated galaxies; we compute the line-of-sight velocity dispersions of star particles within a cylindrical volume that penetrates the core of each subhalo. We construct the velocity dispersion functions for quiescent subhalos within $R_{200}$. The simulated cluster velocity dispersion function exceeds the simulated field velocity dispersion function for $\log σ_{*} > 2.2$, indicating the preferential formation of large velocity dispersion galaxies in dense environments. The excess is similar in simulations and in the observations. We also compare the simulated velocity dispersion function for the three most massive clusters with $\log (M_{200} / M_{\odot}) > 15$ with the observed velocity dispersion function for the two most massive clusters in the local universe, Coma and A2029. Intriguingly, the simulated velocity dispersion functions are significantly lower for $\log σ_{*} > 2.0$. This discrepancy results from 1) a smaller number of subhalos with $\log (M_{*} / M_{\odot}) > 10$ in TNG300 compared to the observed clusters, and 2) a significant offset between the observed and simulated $M_{*} - σ_{*}$ relations. The velocity dispersion function offers a unique window on galaxy and structure formation in simulations.

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How time weathers galaxies: The temporal impact of the cluster environment on galaxy formation and evolution

We illuminate the altered evolution of galaxies in clusters compared to the field by tracking galaxies in the IllustrisTNG300 simulation as they enter isolated clusters of mass $10^{13} < M_{\rm 200, mean} / {\rm M}_\odot < 10^{15}$ (at $z=0$). We demonstrate significant trends in galaxy properties with residence time (time since first infall) and that there is a population of galaxies that remain star-forming even many Gyrs after their infall. By comparing the properties of galaxies at their infall time to their properties at $z=0$, we show how scaling relations, like the stellar-to-halo mass ratio, shift as galaxies live in the cluster environment. Galaxies with a residence time of 10 Gyr increase their stellar-to-halo mass ratio, by around 1 dex. As measurements of the steepest slope of the galaxy cluster number density profile ($R_{\rm st}$), frequently used as a proxy for the splashback radius, have been shown to depend strongly on galaxy selection, we show how $R_{\rm st}$ depends on galaxy residence time. Using galaxies with residence times less than one cluster crossing time ($\approx 5$ Gyr) to measure $R_{\rm st}$ leads to significant offsets relative to using the entire galaxy population. Galaxies must have had the opportunity to `splash back' to the first caustic to trace out a representative value of $R_{\rm st}$, potentially leading to issues for galaxy surveys using UV-selected galaxies. Our wok demonstrates that the evolution of cluster galaxies continues well into their lifetime in the cluster and departs from a typical field galaxy evolutionary path.

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Endothermic self-interacting dark matter in Milky Way-like dark matter haloes

Self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) offers the potential to mitigate some of the discrepancies between simulated cold dark matter (CDM) and observed galactic properties. We introduce a physically motivated SIDM model to understand the effects of self interactions on the properties of Milky Way and dwarf galaxy sized haloes. This model consists of dark matter with a nearly degenerate excited state, which allows for both elastic and inelastic scattering. In particular, the model includes a significant probability for particles to up-scatter from the ground state to the excited state. We simulate a suite of zoom-in Milky Way-sized N-body haloes with six models with different scattering cross sections to study the effects of up-scattering in SIDM models. We find that the up-scattering reaction greatly increases the central densities of the main halo through the loss of kinetic energy. However, the physical model still results in significant coring due to the presence of elastic scattering and down-scattering. These effects are not as apparent in the subhalo population compared to the main halo, but the number of subhaloes is reduced compared to CDM.

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SWIFT: A modern highly-parallel gravity and smoothed particle hydrodynamics solver for astrophysical and cosmological applications

Numerical simulations have become one of the key tools used by theorists in all the fields of astrophysics and cosmology. The development of modern tools that target the largest existing computing systems and exploit state-of-the-art numerical methods and algorithms is thus crucial. In this paper, we introduce the fully open-source highly-parallel, versatile, and modular coupled hydrodynamics, gravity, cosmology, and galaxy-formation code SWIFT. The software package exploits hybrid shared- and distributed-memory task-based parallelism, asynchronous communications, and domain-decomposition algorithms based on balancing the workload, rather than the data, to efficiently exploit modern high-performance computing cluster architectures. Gravity is solved for using a fast-multipole-method, optionally coupled to a particle mesh solver in Fourier space to handle periodic volumes. For gas evolution, multiple modern flavours of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics are implemented. SWIFT also evolves neutrinos using a state-of-the-art particle-based method. Two complementary networks of sub-grid models for galaxy formation as well as extensions to simulate planetary physics are also released as part of the code. An extensive set of output options, including snapshots, light-cones, power spectra, and a coupling to structure finders are also included. We describe the overall code architecture, summarise the consistency and accuracy tests that were performed, and demonstrate the excellent weak-scaling performance of the code using a representative cosmological hydrodynamical problem with $\approx$$300$ billion particles. The code is released to the community alongside extensive documentation for both users and developers, a large selection of example test problems, and a suite of tools to aid in the analysis of large simulations run with SWIFT.

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The thesan project: public data release of radiation-hydrodynamic simulations matching reionization-era JWST observations

Cosmological simulations serve as invaluable tools for understanding the Universe. However, the technical complexity and substantial computational resources required to generate such simulations often limit their accessibility within the broader research community. Notable exceptions exist, but most are not suited for simultaneously studying the physics of galaxy formation and cosmic reionization during the first billion years of cosmic history. This is especially relevant now that a fleet of advanced observatories (e.g. James Webb Space Telescope, Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, SPHEREx, ELT, SKA) will soon provide an holistic picture of this defining epoch. To bridge this gap, we publicly release all simulation outputs and post-processing products generated within the THESAN simulation project at https://thesan-project.com. This project focuses on the $z \geq 5.5$ Universe, combining a radiation-hydrodynamics solver (AREPO-RT), a well-tested galaxy formation model (IllustrisTNG) and cosmic dust physics to provide a comprehensive view of the Epoch of Reionization. The THESAN suite includes 16 distinct simulations, each varying in volume, resolution, and underlying physical models. This paper outlines the unique features of these new simulations, the production and detailed format of the wide range of derived data products, and the process for data retrieval. Finally, as a case study, we compare our simulation data with a number of recent observations from the James Webb Space Telescope, affirming the accuracy and applicability of THESAN. The examples also serve as prototypes for how to utilise the released dataset to perform comparisons between predictions and observations.

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TangoSIDM Project: Is the Stellar Mass Tully-Fisher relation consistent with SIDM?

Self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) has the potential to significantly influence galaxy formation in comparison to the cold, collisionless dark matter paradigm (CDM), resulting in observable effects. This study aims to elucidate this influence and to demonstrate that the stellar mass Tully-Fisher relation imposes robust constraints on the parameter space of velocity-dependent SIDM models. We present a new set of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations that include the SIDM scheme from the TangoSIDM project and the SWIFT-EAGLE galaxy formation model. Two cosmological simulations suites were generated: one (Reference model) which yields good agreement with the observed $z=0$ galaxy stellar mass function, galaxy mass-size relation, and stellar-to-halo mass relation; and another (WeakStellarFB model) in which the stellar feedback is less efficient, particularly for Milky Way-like systems. Both galaxy formation models were simulated under four dark matter cosmologies: CDM, SIDM with two different velocity-dependent cross sections, and SIDM with a constant cross section. While SIDM does not modify global galaxy properties such as stellar masses and star formation rates, it does make the galaxies more extended. In Milky Way-like galaxies, where baryons dominate the central gravitational potential, SIDM thermalises, causing dark matter to accumulate in the central regions. This accumulation results in density profiles that are steeper than those produced in CDM from adiabatic contraction. The enhanced dark matter density in the central regions of galaxies causes a deviation in the slope of the Tully-Fisher relation, which significantly diverges from the observational data. In contrast, the Tully-Fisher relation derived from CDM models aligns well with observations.

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Velocity Dispersions of Quiescent Galaxies in IllustirisTNG

We examine the central stellar velocity dispersion of subhalos based on IllustrisTNG cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The central velocity dispersion is a fundamental observable that links galaxies with their dark matter subhalos. We carefully explore simulated stellar velocity dispersions derived with different definitions to assess possible systematics. We explore the impact of variation in the identification of member stellar particles, the viewing axes, the velocity dispersion computation technique, and simulation resolution. None of these issues impact the velocity dispersion significantly; any systematic uncertainties are smaller than the random error. We examine the stellar mass-velocity dispersion relation as an observational test of the simulations. At fixed stellar mass, the observed velocity dispersions significantly exceed the simulation results. This discrepancy is an interesting benchmark for the IllustrisTNG simulations because the simulations are not explicitly tuned to match this relation. We demonstrate that the stellar velocity dispersion provides measures of the dark matter velocity dispersion and the dark matter subhalo mass.

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Nested solitons in two-field fuzzy dark matter

Dark matter as scalar particles consisting of multiple species is well motivated in string theory where axion fields are ubiquitous. A two-field fuzzy dark matter (FDM) model features two species of ultralight axion particles with different masses, $m_1 \neq m_2$, which is extended from the standard one-field model with $m_a \sim 10^{-22}\,{\rm eV}$. Here we perform numerical simulations to explore the properties of two-field FDM haloes. We find that the central soliton has a nested structure when $m_2 \gg m_1$, which is distinguishable from the generic flat-core soliton in one-field haloes. However, the formation of this nested soliton is subject to many factors, including the density fraction and mass ratio of the two fields. Finally, we study non-linear structure formation in two-field cosmological simulations with self-consistent initial conditions and find that the small-scale structure in two-field cosmology is also distinct from the one-field model in terms of DM halo counts and soliton formation time.

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FLAMINGO: Calibrating large cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with machine learning

To fully take advantage of the data provided by large-scale structure surveys, we need to quantify the potential impact of baryonic effects, such as feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star formation, on cosmological observables. In simulations, feedback processes originate on scales that remain unresolved. Therefore, they need to be sourced via subgrid models that contain free parameters. We use machine learning to calibrate the AGN and stellar feedback models for the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Using Gaussian process emulators trained on Latin hypercubes of 32 smaller-volume simulations, we model how the galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions change as a function of the subgrid parameters. The emulators are then fit to observational data, allowing for the inclusion of potential observational biases. We apply our method to the three different FLAMINGO resolutions, spanning a factor of 64 in particle mass, recovering the observed relations within the respective resolved mass ranges. We also use the emulators, which link changes in subgrid parameters to changes in observables, to find models that skirt or exceed the observationally allowed range for cluster gas fractions and the stellar mass function. Our method enables us to define model variations in terms of the data that they are calibrated to rather than the values of specific subgrid parameters. This approach is useful, because subgrid parameters are typically not directly linked to particular observables, and predictions for a specific observable are influenced by multiple subgrid parameters.

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The FLAMINGO project: cosmological hydrodynamical simulations for large-scale structure and galaxy cluster surveys

We introduce the Virgo Consortium's FLAMINGO suite of hydrodynamical simulations for cosmology and galaxy cluster physics. To ensure the simulations are sufficiently realistic for studies of large-scale structure, the subgrid prescriptions for stellar and AGN feedback are calibrated to the observed low-redshift galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions. The calibration is performed using machine learning, separately for three resolutions. This approach enables specification of the model by the observables to which they are calibrated. The calibration accounts for a number of potential observational biases and for random errors in the observed stellar masses. The two most demanding simulations have box sizes of 1.0 and 2.8 Gpc and baryonic particle masses of $1\times10^8$ and $1\times10^9 \text{M}_\odot$, respectively. For the latter resolution the suite includes 12 model variations in a 1 Gpc box. There are 8 variations at fixed cosmology, including shifts in the stellar mass function and/or the cluster gas fractions to which we calibrate, and two alternative implementations of AGN feedback (thermal or jets). The remaining 4 variations use the unmodified calibration data but different cosmologies, including different neutrino masses. The 2.8 Gpc simulation follows $3\times10^{11}$ particles, making it the largest ever hydrodynamical simulation run to $z=0$. Lightcone output is produced on-the-fly for up to 8 different observers. We investigate numerical convergence, show that the simulations reproduce the calibration data, and compare with a number of galaxy, cluster, and large-scale structure observations, finding very good agreement with the data for converged predictions. Finally, by comparing hydrodynamical and `dark-matter-only' simulations, we confirm that baryonic effects can suppress the halo mass function and the matter power spectrum by up to $\approx20$ per cent.

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The impact of stochastic modeling on the predictive power of galaxy formation simulations

All modern galaxy formation models employ stochastic elements in their sub-grid prescriptions to discretise continuous equations across the time domain. In this paper, we investigate how the stochastic nature of these models, notably star formation, black hole accretion, and their associated feedback, that act on small ($<$ kpc) scales, can back-react on macroscopic galaxy properties (e.g. stellar mass and size) across long ($>$ Gyr) timescales. We find that the scatter in scaling relations predicted by the EAGLE model implemented in the SWIFT code can be significantly impacted by random variability between re-simulations of the same object, even when galaxies are resolved by tens of thousands of particles. We then illustrate how re-simulations of the same object can be used to better understand the underlying model, by showing how correlations between galaxy stellar mass and black hole mass disappear at the highest black hole masses ($M_{\rm BH} > 10^8$ M$_\odot$), indicating that the feedback cycle may be interrupted by external processes. We find that although properties that are collected cumulatively over many objects are relatively robust against random variability (e.g. the median of a scaling relation), the properties of individual galaxies (such as galaxy stellar mass) can vary by up to 25\%, even far into the well-resolved regime, driven by bursty physics (black hole feedback) and mergers between galaxies. We suggest that studies of individual objects within cosmological simulations be treated with caution, and that any studies aiming to closely investigate such objects must account for random variability within their results.

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