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Joshua D. Ingram

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua D. Ingram.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

The Chandra-Gaia Catalog of Counterparts: Resolving ambiguous Gaia matches to X-ray sources in the Chandra Source Catalog using Machine Learning

We present a framework to cross-match sources from the Chandra Source Catalog (CSC v2.1) with optical sources from Gaia Data Release 3. Unlike purely spatial approaches, we use source properties such as magnitudes, colors, and distances to identify true counterparts, detect chance coincidences, and resolve ambiguities when multiple plausible candidates exist. We define a training set of high-confidence matches using NWAY, a Bayesian cross-matching framework that accounts for positional errors and source densities. We train a gradient-boosted classifier (LightGBM) on a variety of features from both catalogs. Of the ~$254$k unique X-ray sources, we find counterparts for ~$113$k sources, of which plausible multiple counterparts are found for ~$7$k. We find no counterparts for ~$20$k sources for which separation-based cross-matching does find a match, and attribute half of these to chance coincidences. We validate the pipeline on the Chandra Orion Ultradeep Project (COUP), where the machine-learning matches reproduce 95% of NWAY cross-matches without using any positional information. We release a catalog of the ~$113$k Chandra-Gaia counterparts, together with ~$7$k alternative matches and ~$20$k ambiguous NWAY associations, supporting future population studies of sources detectable by both Chandra and Gaia. We discuss limitations and provide a generalization of the framework that is applicable in other cross-matching scenarios.

astro-ph.IM

Trustworthy scientific inference with generative models

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) excels at producing complex data structures (text, images, videos) by learning patterns from training examples. Across scientific disciplines, researchers are now applying generative models to "inverse problems" to directly predict hidden parameters from observed data along with measures of uncertainty. While these predictive or posterior-based methods can handle intractable likelihoods and large-scale studies, they can also produce biased or overconfident conclusions even without model misspecifications. We present a solution with Frequentist-Bayes (FreB), a mathematically rigorous protocol that reshapes AI-generated posterior probability distributions into (locally valid) confidence regions that consistently include true parameters with the expected probability, while achieving minimum size when training and target data align. We demonstrate FreB's effectiveness by tackling diverse case studies in the physical sciences: identifying unknown sources under dataset shift, reconciling competing theoretical models, and mitigating selection bias and systematics in observational studies. By providing validity guarantees with interpretable diagnostics, FreB enables trustworthy scientific inference across fields where direct likelihood evaluation remains impossible or prohibitively expensive.

stat.ML