arXiv subjects

Joshua Kazdan

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua Kazdan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Internal Data Repetition Destroys Language Models

Language models are running out of high-quality training data, and even aggressively deduplicated corpora retain some amount of repetition. Earlier controlled studies predated Chinchilla-style scaling laws and could only measure the cost of repetition indirectly. We revisit repetition in the Chinchilla era, using a fitted no-repetition scaling law to report Compute-Equivalent Gain and Compute-Equivalent Loss. We show that under this modernized paradigm, repetition damage is systematic in three ways. First, holding compute allocated to repeated data constant, eval loss peaks at an intermediate repeat count $\Rep$; repeating a moderately sized subset a moderate number of times damages performance more than repeating a large subset a few times or a small subset many times. Second, the location of this peak is well-fit by a power law in model size; this scaling law reveals that the most damaging number of repeated data grows more quickly than compute. Finally, when repeated documents consume 10\% of the FLOPs budget in a controlled exact-document repetition setting, the compute-equivalent loss can be large: on FineWeb-Edu-Dedup, the most damaging repeat count for a Qwen3-style 344M-parameter model at $\OT=1$ matches the loss of a no-repetition run using 67% of the FLOPs. We demonstrate that these phenomena are not language-model-specific, and can be analytically understood in a simple statistical model: a misspecified linear regression with verbatim duplicates reproduces the same qualitative loss peak, quantifying how such peaks can arise from a statistical tradeoff between memorization and generalization. Our findings add precision to the study of duplication in language models, allowing practitioners to quantify the wasted compute incurred by the presence and repeat structure of duplicates in pretraining corpora.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Consensus is Not Verification: Why Crowd Wisdom Strategies Fail for LLM Truthfulness

Pass@k and other methods of scaling inference compute can improve language model performance in domains with external verifiers, including mathematics and code, where incorrect candidates can be filtered reliably. This raises a natural question: can we similarly scale compute to elicit gains in truthfulness for domains without convenient verification? We show that across five benchmarks and models, surprisingly, it cannot. Even at 25x the inference cost of naive sampling, polling-style aggregation yields no consistent accuracy gains over single-sample baselines and often amplifies shared misconceptions. We find that under uncertainty, models are better at predicting what other models will say within model ensembles than at identifying what is true, revealing a separation between social prediction and truth verification. Across models and benchmarks, aggregation fails to provide a robust truth signal because language model errors are strongly correlated. The source of correlation goes beyond any individual benchmark: we show that even when conditioned on out of distribution random strings and asked to produce pseudo-random outputs, different models produce correlated outputs. Confidence-based weighting provides no benefit because self-reported confidence fails to reliably distinguish correct from incorrect answers. These results delineate a boundary for inference-time scaling: in verified domains, additional samples provide more candidates for a verifier to filter; in unverified domains, additional samples merely reinforce shared misconceptions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Scale Dependent Data Duplication

Data duplication during pretraining can degrade generalization and lead to memorization, motivating aggressive deduplication pipelines. However, at web scale, it is unclear what constitutes a ``duplicate'': beyond surface-form matches, semantically equivalent documents (e.g. translations) may induce redundant training signals once models become sufficiently capable. Practically, this means that semantic duplicates operate increasingly like exact duplicates during training. We present evidence that duplication is scale-dependent in two ways. First, as model capability increases, cross-entropy loss gradients for semantically equivalent documents become more aligned. Smaller models, by contrast, produce gradients that reflect surface similarity (e.g., shared tokens) rather than semantic similarity. Second, we embedded all 192 million FineWeb-Edu-Dedup documents using EmbeddingGemma-300m. For moderate corpus sizes, the cosine similarity between nearest-neighbors follows an isotropic power law baseline. However, as corpus size grows to hundreds of billions of tokens, the nearest-neighbor similarities deviate sharply, indicating accelerated semantic collisions. Finally, controlled pretraining on data sampled with replacement from pools of finite unique documents shows that limited uniqueness yields mild degradation for small models, but rapidly increasing loss penalties for larger models, breaking naive scaling extrapolation. We derive explicit scaling laws that allow practitioners to estimate deviation from expected scaling due to limited semantic uniqueness of the pretraining corpus. Our results identify and resolve an unstudied source of scale-dependence, allowing for more accurate prediction at scale.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Quantifying the Effect of Test Set Contamination on Generative Evaluations

As frontier AI systems are pretrained on web-scale data, test set contamination has become a critical concern for accurately assessing their capabilities. While research has thoroughly investigated the impact of test set contamination on discriminative evaluations like multiple-choice question-answering, comparatively little research has studied the impact of test set contamination on generative evaluations. In this work, we quantitatively assess the effect of test set contamination on generative evaluations through the language model lifecycle. We pretrain language models on mixtures of web data and the MATH benchmark, sweeping model sizes and number of test set replicas contaminating the pretraining corpus; performance improves with contamination and model size. Using scaling laws, we make a surprising discovery: including even a single test set replica enables models to achieve lower loss than the irreducible error of training on the uncontaminated corpus. We then study further training: overtraining with fresh data reduces the effects of contamination, whereas supervised finetuning on the training set can either increase or decrease performance on test data, depending on the amount of pretraining contamination. Finally, at inference, we identify factors that modulate memorization: high sampling temperatures mitigate contamination effects, and longer solutions are exponentially more difficult to memorize than shorter ones, presenting a contrast with discriminative evaluations, where solutions are only a few tokens in length. By characterizing how generation and memorization interact, we highlight a new layer of complexity for trustworthy evaluation of AI systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Prediction of Pass@k Scaling in Large Language Models

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Understanding Adversarial Transfer: Why Representation-Space Attacks Fail Where Data-Space Attacks Succeed

The field of adversarial robustness has long established that adversarial examples can successfully transfer between image classifiers and that text jailbreaks can successfully transfer between language models (LMs). However, a pair of recent studies reported being unable to successfully transfer image jailbreaks between vision-language models (VLMs). To explain this striking difference, we propose a fundamental distinction regarding the transferability of attacks against machine learning models: attacks in the input data-space can transfer, whereas attacks in model representation space do not, at least not without geometric alignment of representations. We then provide theoretical and empirical evidence of this hypothesis in four different settings. First, we mathematically prove this distinction in a simple setting where two networks compute the same input-output map but via different representations. Second, we construct representation-space attacks against image classifiers that are as successful as well-known data-space attacks, but fail to transfer. Third, we construct representation-space attacks against LMs that successfully jailbreak the attacked models but again fail to transfer. Fourth, we construct data-space attacks against VLMs that successfully transfer to new VLMs, and we show that representation space attacks can transfer when VLMs' latent geometries are sufficiently aligned in post-projector space. Our work reveals that adversarial transfer is not an inherent property of all attacks but contingent on their operational domain - the shared data-space versus models' unique representation spaces - a critical insight for building more robust models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Position: Machine Learning Conferences Should Establish a "Refutations and Critiques" Track

Science progresses by iteratively advancing and correcting humanity's understanding of the world. In machine learning (ML) research, rapid advancements have led to an explosion of publications, but have also led to misleading, incorrect, flawed or perhaps even fraudulent studies being accepted and sometimes highlighted at ML conferences due to the fallibility of peer review. While such mistakes are understandable, ML conferences do not offer robust processes to help the field systematically correct when such errors are made. This position paper argues that ML conferences should establish a dedicated "Refutations and Critiques" (R&C) Track. This R&C Track would provide a high-profile, reputable platform to support vital research that critically challenges prior research, thereby fostering a dynamic self-correcting research ecosystem. We discuss key considerations including track design, review principles, potential pitfalls, and provide an illustrative example submission concerning a recent ICLR 2025 Oral. We conclude that ML conferences should create official, reputable mechanisms to help ML research self-correct.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Min-p, Max Exaggeration: A Critical Analysis of Min-p Sampling in Language Models

Sampling from language models impacts the quality and diversity of outputs, affecting both research and real-world applications. Recently, Nguyen et al. 2024's "Turning Up the Heat: Min-p Sampling for Creative and Coherent LLM Outputs" introduced a new sampler called min-p, claiming it achieves superior quality and diversity over established samplers such as basic, top-k, and top-p sampling. The significance of these claims was underscored by the paper's recognition as the 18th highest-scoring submission to ICLR 2025 and selection for an Oral presentation. This paper conducts a comprehensive re-examination of the evidence supporting min-p and reaches different conclusions from the original paper's four lines of evidence. First, the original paper's human evaluations omitted data, conducted statistical tests incorrectly, and described qualitative feedback inaccurately; our reanalysis demonstrates min-p did not outperform baselines in quality, diversity, or a trade-off between quality and diversity; in response to our findings, the authors of the original paper conducted a new human evaluation using a different implementation, task, and rubric that nevertheless provides further evidence min-p does not improve over baselines. Second, comprehensively sweeping the original paper's NLP benchmarks reveals min-p does not surpass baselines when controlling for the number of hyperparameters. Third, the original paper's LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations lack methodological clarity and appear inconsistently reported. Fourth, community adoption claims (49k GitHub repositories, 1.1M GitHub stars) were found to be unsubstantiated, leading to their removal; the revised adoption claim remains misleading. We conclude that evidence presented in the original paper fails to support claims that min-p improves quality, diversity, or a trade-off between quality and diversity.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Sharpe Ratio-Guided Active Learning for Preference Optimization in RLHF

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a cornerstone of the training and alignment pipeline for large language models (LLMs). Recent advances, such as direct preference optimization (DPO), have simplified the preference learning step. However, collecting preference data remains a challenging and costly process, often requiring expert annotation. This cost can be mitigated by carefully selecting the data points presented for annotation. In this work, we propose an active learning approach to efficiently select prompt and preference pairs using a risk assessment strategy based on the Sharpe Ratio. To address the challenge of unknown preferences prior to annotation, our method evaluates the gradients of all potential preference annotations to assess their impact on model updates. These gradient-based evaluations enable risk assessment of data points regardless of the annotation outcome. By leveraging the DPO loss derivations, we derive a closed-form expression for computing these Sharpe ratios on a per-tuple basis, ensuring our approach remains both tractable and computationally efficient. We also introduce two variants of our method, each making different assumptions about prior information. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms the baseline by up to 5% in win rates against the chosen completion with limited human preference data across several language models and real-world datasets.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Position: Model Collapse Does Not Mean What You Think

The proliferation of AI-generated content online has fueled concerns over \emph{model collapse}, a degradation in future generative models' performance when trained on synthetic data generated by earlier models. Industry leaders, premier research journals and popular science publications alike have prophesied catastrophic societal consequences stemming from model collapse. In this position piece, we contend this widespread narrative fundamentally misunderstands the scientific evidence. We highlight that research on model collapse actually encompasses eight distinct and at times conflicting definitions of model collapse, and argue that inconsistent terminology within and between papers has hindered building a comprehensive understanding of model collapse. To assess how significantly different interpretations of model collapse threaten future generative models, we posit what we believe are realistic conditions for studying model collapse and then conduct a rigorous assessment of the literature's methodologies through this lens. While we leave room for reasonable disagreement, our analysis of research studies, weighted by how faithfully each study matches real-world conditions, leads us to conclude that certain predicted claims of model collapse rely on assumptions and conditions that poorly match real-world conditions, and in fact several prominent collapse scenarios are readily avoidable. Altogether, this position paper argues that model collapse has been warped from a nuanced multifaceted consideration into an oversimplified threat, and that the evidence suggests specific harms more likely under society's current trajectory have received disproportionately less attention.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

No, of Course I Can! Deeper Fine-Tuning Attacks That Bypass Token-Level Safety Mechanisms

Leading language model (LM) providers like OpenAI and Anthropic allow customers to fine-tune frontier LMs for specific use cases. To prevent abuse, these providers apply filters to block fine-tuning on overtly harmful data. In this setting, we make three contributions: First, while past work has shown that safety alignment is "shallow", we correspondingly demonstrate that existing fine-tuning attacks are shallow -- attacks target only the first several tokens of the model response, and consequently can be blocked by generating the first several response tokens with an aligned model. Second, we conceptually illustrate how to make attacks deeper by introducing a new fine-tuning attack that trains models to first refuse harmful requests before answering them; this "refuse-then-comply" strategy bypasses shallow defenses and produces harmful responses that evade output filters. Third, we demonstrate the potency of our new fine-tuning attack by jailbreaking both open-source models equipped with defenses and production models, achieving attack success rates of 57% and 72% against GPT-4o and Claude Haiku, respectively. Our attack received a $2000 bug bounty from OpenAI and was acknowledged as a vulnerability by Anthropic. Our work undermines the notion that models are safe because they initially refuse harmful requests and broadens awareness of the scope of attacks that face production fine-tuning APIs.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2025

How Do Large Language Monkeys Get Their Power (Laws)?

Recent research across mathematical problem solving, proof assistant programming and multimodal jailbreaking documents a striking finding: when (multimodal) language model tackle a suite of tasks with multiple attempts per task -- succeeding if any attempt is correct -- then the negative log of the average success rate scales a power law in the number of attempts. In this work, we identify an apparent puzzle: a simple mathematical calculation predicts that on each problem, the failure rate should fall exponentially with the number of attempts. We confirm this prediction empirically, raising a question: from where does aggregate polynomial scaling emerge? We then answer this question by demonstrating per-problem exponential scaling can be made consistent with aggregate polynomial scaling if the distribution of single-attempt success probabilities is heavy tailed such that a small fraction of tasks with extremely low success probabilities collectively warp the aggregate success trend into a power law - even as each problem scales exponentially on its own. We further demonstrate that this distributional perspective explains previously observed deviations from power law scaling, and provides a simple method for forecasting the power law exponent with an order of magnitude lower relative error, or equivalently, ${\sim}2-4$ orders of magnitude less inference compute. Overall, our work contributes to a better understanding of how neural language model performance improves with scaling inference compute and the development of scaling-predictable evaluations of (multimodal) language models.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

KGGen: Extracting Knowledge Graphs from Plain Text with Language Models

Recent interest in building foundation models for KGs has highlighted a fundamental challenge: knowledge-graph data is relatively scarce. The best-known KGs are primarily human-labeled, created by pattern-matching, or extracted using early NLP techniques. While human-generated KGs are in short supply, automatically extracted KGs are of questionable quality. We present a solution to this data scarcity problem in the form of a text-to-KG generator (KGGen), a package that uses language models to create high-quality graphs from plaintext. Unlike other KG extractors, KGGen clusters related entities to reduce sparsity in extracted KGs. KGGen is available as a Python library (\texttt{pip install kg-gen}), making it accessible to everyone. Along with KGGen, we release the first benchmark, Measure of of Information in Nodes and Edges (MINE), that tests an extractor's ability to produce a useful KG from plain text. We benchmark our new tool against existing extractors and demonstrate far superior performance.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

The Utility and Complexity of in- and out-of-Distribution Machine Unlearning

Machine unlearning, the process of selectively removing data from trained models, is increasingly crucial for addressing privacy concerns and knowledge gaps post-deployment. Despite this importance, existing approaches are often heuristic and lack formal guarantees. In this paper, we analyze the fundamental utility, time, and space complexity trade-offs of approximate unlearning, providing rigorous certification analogous to differential privacy. For in-distribution forget data -- data similar to the retain set -- we show that a surprisingly simple and general procedure, empirical risk minimization with output perturbation, achieves tight unlearning-utility-complexity trade-offs, addressing a previous theoretical gap on the separation from unlearning "for free" via differential privacy, which inherently facilitates the removal of such data. However, such techniques fail with out-of-distribution forget data -- data significantly different from the retain set -- where unlearning time complexity can exceed that of retraining, even for a single sample. To address this, we propose a new robust and noisy gradient descent variant that provably amortizes unlearning time complexity without compromising utility.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Collapse or Thrive? Perils and Promises of Synthetic Data in a Self-Generating World

What happens when generative machine learning models are pretrained on web-scale datasets containing data generated by earlier models? Some prior work warns of "model collapse" as the web is overwhelmed by synthetic data; other work suggests the problem can be contained (i.e. collapse can be avoided) by managing how available data are used in pretraining. In this paper, we report experiments on three ways of using data (training-workflows), across three generative model task-settings (multivariate Gaussian estimation, kernel density estimation, and language-model fine-tuning) to further confirm the possibility of containment: (a) we confirm that the training-workflow of {\it replacing} all real data by successive generations of purely synthetic data indeed suffers model collapse in all task-settings studied; (b) we consider the training-workflow of {\it accumulating} synthetic data alongside real data and training on all data combined and confirming that, although the proportion of real data eventually becomes zero, models remain stable and their test losses do not diverge under this training-workflow; (c) we consider a training-workflow where real and synthetic data accumulate together but successive generations of pretraining are constrained to use fixed-size data subsets each generation. In this workflow, we observe slow and gradual rather than explosive degradation of test loss performance across generations. Our insights are particularly important when forecasting whether future frontier generative models will collapse or thrive, and our results open avenues for empirically and mathematically studying the context-dependent value of synthetic data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

CPSample: Classifier Protected Sampling for Guarding Training Data During Diffusion

Diffusion models have a tendency to exactly replicate their training data, especially when trained on small datasets. Most prior work has sought to mitigate this problem by imposing differential privacy constraints or masking parts of the training data, resulting in a notable substantial decrease in image quality. We present CPSample, a method that modifies the sampling process to prevent training data replication while preserving image quality. CPSample utilizes a classifier that is trained to overfit on random binary labels attached to the training data. CPSample then uses classifier guidance to steer the generation process away from the set of points that can be classified with high certainty, a set that includes the training data. CPSample achieves FID scores of 4.97 and 2.97 on CIFAR-10 and CelebA-64, respectively, without producing exact replicates of the training data. Unlike prior methods intended to guard the training images, CPSample only requires training a classifier rather than retraining a diffusion model, which is computationally cheaper. Moreover, our technique provides diffusion models with greater robustness against membership inference attacks, wherein an adversary attempts to discern which images were in the model's training dataset. We show that CPSample behaves like a built-in rejection sampler, and we demonstrate its capabilities to prevent mode collapse in Stable Diffusion.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Spiders and their Kin: An Investigation of Stanley's Chromatic Symmetric Function for Spiders and Related Graphs

We study the chromatic symmetric functions of graph classes related to spiders, namely generalized spider graphs (line graphs of spiders), and what we call horseshoe crab graphs. We show that no two generalized spiders have the same chromatic symmetric function, thereby extending the work of Martin, Morin and Wagner. Additionally, we establish that a subclass of generalized spiders, which we call generalized nets, has no e-positive members, providing a more general counterexample to the necessity of the claw-free condition. We use yet another class of generalized spiders to construct a counterexample to a problem involving the $e$-positivity of claw-free, P4-sparse graphs, showing that Tsujie's result on the e-positivity of claw-free, P4-free graphs cannot be extended to graphs in this set. Finally, we investigate the e-positivity of another type of graphs, the horseshoe crab graphs (a class of unit interval graphs), and prove the positivity of all but one of the coefficients. This has close connections to the work of Gebhard and Sagan and Cho and Huh.

math.CO↗

arXiv2022

Transplanting Trees: Chromatic Symmetric Function Results through the Group Algebra of $S_n$

One of the major outstanding conjectures in the study of chromatic symmetric functions (CSF's) states that trees are uniquely determined by their CSF's. Though verified on graphs of order up to twenty-nine, this result has been proved only for certain subclasses of trees. Using the definition of the CSF that emerges via the Frobenius character map applied to $\mathbb{C}[S_n]$, we offer new algebraic proofs of several results about the CSF's of trees. Additionally, we prove that a "parent function" of the CSF defined in the group ring of $S_n$ can uniquely determine trees, providing further support for Stanley's conjecture.

math.CO↗