arXiv subjects

Joshua Krissansen-Totton

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua Krissansen-Totton.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

The erosion of large primary atmospheres typically leaves behind substantial secondary atmospheres on temperate rocky planets

Exoplanet exploration has revealed that many$\unicode{x2013}$perhaps most$\unicode{x2013}$terrestrial exoplanets formed with substantial H$_2$-rich envelopes, seemingly in contrast to solar system terrestrials, for which there is scant evidence of long-lived primary atmospheres. It is not known how a long-lived primary atmosphere might affect the subsequent habitability prospects of terrestrial exoplanets. Here, we present a new, self-consistent evolutionary model of the transition from primary to secondary atmospheres. The model incorporates all Fe-C-O-H-bearing species and simulates magma ocean solidification, radiative-convective climate, thermal escape, and mantle redox evolution. For our illustrative example TRAPPIST-1, our model strongly favors atmosphere retention for the habitable zone planet TRAPPIST-1e. In contrast, the same model predicts a comparatively thin atmosphere for the Venus-analog TRAPPIST-1b, which would be vulnerable to complete erosion via non-thermal escape and is consistent with JWST observations. More broadly, we conclude that the erosion of primary atmospheres typically does not preclude surface habitability, and frequently results in large surface water inventories due to the reduction of FeO by H$_2$.

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arXiv2024

Probing Cold-to-Temperate Exoplanetary Atmospheres: The Role of Water Condensation on Surface Identification with JWST

Understanding the surface temperature and interior structure of cold-to-temperate sub-Neptunes is critical for assessing their habitability, yet direct observations are challenging. In this study, we investigate the impact of water condensation on the atmospheric compositions of sub-Neptunes, focusing on the implications for JWST spectroscopic observations. By modeling the atmospheric photochemistry of two canonical sub-Neptunes, K2-18 b and LHS 1140 b, both with and without water condensation and with and without thick atmospheres, we demonstrate that water condensation can significantly affect the predicted atmospheric compositions. This effect is driven by oxygen depletion from the condensation of water vapor and primarily manifests as an increase in the C/O ratio within the photochemically active regions of the atmosphere. This change in composition particularly affects planets with thin H2-dominated atmospheres, leading to a transition in dominant nitrogen and carbon carriers from N2 and oxygen-rich species like CO/CO2 towards heavier hydrocarbons and nitriles. While our models do not fully account for the loss mechanisms of these higher-order species, such molecules can go on to form more refractory molecules or hazes. Planets with thin H2-rich atmospheres undergoing significant water condensation are thus likely to exhibit very hazy atmospheres. The relatively flat JWST spectra observed for LHS 1140 b could be consistent with such a scenario, suggesting a shallow surface with extensive water condensation or a high atmospheric C/O ratio. Conversely, the JWST observations of K2-18 b are better aligned with a volatile-rich mini-Neptune with a thick atmosphere.

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arXiv2024

A roadmap for the atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets with JWST

Ultra-cool dwarf stars are abundant, long-lived, and uniquely suited to enable the atmospheric study of transiting terrestrial companions with JWST. Amongst them, the most prominent is the M8.5V star TRAPPIST-1 and its seven planets. While JWST Cycle 1 observations have started to yield preliminary insights into the planets, they have also revealed that their atmospheric exploration requires a better understanding of their host star. Here, we propose a roadmap to characterize the TRAPPIST-1 system -- and others like it -- in an efficient and robust manner. We notably recommend that -- although more challenging to schedule -- multi-transit windows be prioritized to mitigate the effects of stellar activity and gather up to twice more transits per JWST hour spent. We conclude that, for such systems, planets cannot be studied in isolation by small programs, but rather need large-scale, jointly space- and ground-based initiatives to fully exploit the capabilities of JWST for the exploration of terrestrial planets.

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arXiv2024

JWST Reveals CH$_4$, CO$_2$, and H$_2$O in a Metal-rich Miscible Atmosphere on a Two-Earth-Radius Exoplanet

Even though sub-Neptunes likely represent the most common outcome of planet formation, their natures remain poorly understood. In particular, planets near 1.5-2.5$\,R_\oplus$ often have bulk densities that can be explained equally well with widely different compositions and interior structures, resulting in grossly divergent implications for their formation. Here, we present the full 0.6-5.2$\,μ\mathrm{m}$ JWST NIRISS/SOSS+NIRSpec/G395H transmission spectrum of the 2.2$\,R_\oplus$ TOI-270d ($4.78\,M_\oplus$, $T_\mathrm{eq}$=350-380 K), delivering unprecedented sensitivity for atmospheric characterization in the sub-Neptune regime. We detect five vibrational bands of CH$_4$ at 1.15, 1.4, 1.7, 2.3, and 3.3$\,μ$m (9.4$σ$), the signature of CO$_2$ at 4.3$\,μ$m (4.8$σ$), water vapor (2.5$σ$), and potential signatures of SO$_2$ at 4.0$\,μ\mathrm{m}$ and CS$_2$ at 4.6$\,μ\mathrm{m}$. Intriguingly, we find an overall highly metal-rich atmosphere, with a mean molecular weight of $5.47_{-1.14}^{+1.25}$. We infer an atmospheric metal mass fraction of $58_{-12}^{+8}\%$ and a C/O of $0.47_{-0.19}^{+0.16}$, indicating that approximately half the mass of the outer envelope is in high-molecular-weight volatiles (H$_2$O, CH$_4$, CO, CO$_2$) rather than H$_2$/He. We introduce a sub-Neptune classification scheme and identify TOI-270d as a "miscible-envelope sub-Neptune" in which H$_2$/He is well-mixed with the high-molecular-weight volatiles in a miscible supercritical metal-rich envelope. For a fully miscible envelope, we conclude that TOI-270d's interior is $90_{-4}^{+3}\,$wt$\,\%$ rock/iron, indicating that it formed as a rocky planet that accreted a few wt % of H$_2$/He, with the overall envelope metal content explained by magma-ocean/envelope reactions without the need for significant ice accretion. TOI-270d may well be an archetype of the overall population of sub-Neptunes.

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arXiv2024

JWST observations of K2-18b can be explained by a gas-rich mini-Neptune with no habitable surface

JWST recently measured the transmission spectrum of K2-18b, a habitable-zone sub-Neptune exoplanet, detecting CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ in its atmosphere. The discovery paper argued the data are best explained by a habitable "Hycean" world, consisting of a relatively thin H$_2$-dominated atmosphere overlying a liquid water ocean. Here, we use photochemical and climate models to simulate K2-18b as both a Hycean planet and a gas-rich mini-Neptune with no defined surface. We find that a lifeless Hycean world is hard to reconcile with the JWST observations because photochemistry only supports $< 1$ part-per-million CH$_4$ in such an atmosphere while the data suggest about $\sim 1\%$ of the gas is present. Sustaining %-level CH$_4$ on a Hycean K2-18b may require the presence of a methane-producing biosphere, similar to microbial life on Earth $\sim 3$ billion years ago. On the other hand, we predict that a gas-rich mini-Neptune with $100 \times$ solar metallicity should have 4% CH$_4$ and nearly 0.1% CO$_2$, which are compatible with the JWST data. The CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ are produced thermochemically in the deep atmosphere and mixed upward to the low pressures sensitive to transmission spectroscopy. The model predicts H$_2$O, NH$_3$ and CO abundances broadly consistent with the non-detections. Given the additional obstacles to maintaining a stable temperate climate on Hycean worlds due to H$_2$ escape and potential supercriticality at depth, we favor the mini-Neptune interpretation because of its relative simplicity and because it does not need a biosphere or other unknown source of methane to explain the data.

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arXiv2023

Constraining Background N2 Inventories on Directly Imaged Terrestrial Exoplanets to Rule Out O2 False Positives

Direct imaging spectroscopy with future space-based telescopes will constrain terrestrial planet atmospheric composition and potentially detect biosignature gases. One promising indication of life is abundant atmospheric O2. However, various non-biological processes could also lead to O2 accumulation in the atmospheres of potentially habitable planets around Sun-like stars. In particular, the absence of non-condensible background gases such as N2 could result in appreciable H escape and abiotic O2 buildup, so identifying background atmosphere composition is crucial for contextualizing any O2 detections. Here, we perform retrievals on simulated directly imaged terrestrial planets using rfast, a new exoplanet atmospheric retrieval suite with direct imaging analysis capabilities. By simulating Earth-analog retrievals for varied atmospheric compositions, cloud properties, and surface pressures, we determine what wavelength range, spectral resolution, and signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) are necessary to constrain background gases' identity and abundance. We find N2 backgrounds can be uniquely identified with S/N$\sim$20 observations, provided that wavelength coverage extends beyond $\sim$1.6 $μ$m to rule out CO-dominated atmospheres. Additionally, there is a low probability of O2-dominated atmospheres due to an O2-N2 degeneracy that is only totally ruled out at S/N$\sim$40. If wavelength coverage is limited to 0.2-1.1 $μ$m, then although all other cosmochemically plausible backgrounds can be readily excluded, N2 and CO backgrounds cannot be distinguished. Overall, our simulated retrievals and associated integration time calculations suggest that near-infrared coverage to at least 1.6 $μ$m and apertures approaching 8m are needed to confidently rule out O2 biosignature false positives within feasible integration times

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arXiv2023

Inferring Chemical Disequilibrium Biosignatures for Proterozoic Earth-Like Exoplanets

Chemical disequilibrium quantified via available free energy has previously been proposed as a potential biosignature. However, exoplanet biosignature remote sensing work has not yet investigated how observational uncertainties impact the ability to infer a life-generated available free energy. We pair an atmospheric retrieval tool to a thermodynamics model to assess the detectability of chemical disequilibrium signatures of Earth-like exoplanets, emphasizing the Proterozoic Eon where atmospheric abundances of oxygen-methane disequilibrium pairs may have been relatively high. Retrieval model studies applied across a range of gas abundances revealed that order-of-magnitude constraints on disequilibrium energy are achieved with simulated reflected-light observations at the high abundance scenario and signal-to-noise ratios (50) while weak constraints are found at moderate SNRs (20\,--\,30) for med\,--\,low abundance cases. Furthermore, the disequilibrium energy constraints are improved by modest thermal information encoded in water vapor opacities at optical and near-infrared wavelengths. These results highlight how remotely detecting chemical disequilibrium biosignatures can be a useful and metabolism-agnostic approach to biosignature detection.

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arXiv2023

Implications of atmospheric nondetections for Trappist-1 inner planets on atmospheric retention prospects for outer planets

JWST secondary eclipse observations of Trappist-1b seemingly disfavor atmospheres >~1 bar since heat redistribution is expected to yield dayside emission temperature below the ~500 K observed. Given the similar densities of Trappist-1 planets, and the theoretical potential for atmospheric erosion around late M-dwarfs, this observation might be assumed to imply substantial atmospheres are also unlikely for the outer planets. However, the processes governing atmosphere erosion and replenishment are fundamentally different for inner and outer planets. Here, an atmosphere-interior evolution model is used to show that an airless Trappist-1b (and c) only weakly constrains stellar evolution, and that the odds of outer planets e and f retaining substantial atmospheres remain largely unchanged. This is true even if the initial volatile inventories of planets in the Trappist-1 system are highly correlated. The reason for this result is that b and c sit unambiguously interior to the runaway greenhouse limit, and so have potentially experienced ~8 Gyr of XUV-driven hydrodynamic escape; complete atmospheric erosion in this environment only weakly constrains stellar evolution and escape parameterizations. In contrast, e and f reside within the habitable zone, and likely experienced a comparatively short steam atmosphere during Trappist-1's pre-main sequence, and consequently complete atmospheric erosion remains unlikely across a broad swath of parameter space (e and f retain atmospheres in ~98% of model runs). Naturally, it is still possible that all Trappist-1 planets formed volatile-poor and are all airless today. But the airlessness of b (and c) does not require this, and as such, JWST transit spectroscopy of e and f remains the best near-term opportunity to characterize the atmospheres of habitable zone terrestrial planets.

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arXiv2022

Community Report from the Biosignatures Standards of Evidence Workshop

The search for life beyond the Earth is the overarching goal of the NASA Astrobiology Program, and it underpins the science of missions that explore the environments of Solar System planets and exoplanets. However, the detection of extraterrestrial life, in our Solar System and beyond, is sufficiently challenging that it is likely that multiple measurements and approaches, spanning disciplines and missions, will be needed to make a convincing claim. Life detection will therefore not be an instantaneous process, and it is unlikely to be unambiguous-yet it is a high-stakes scientific achievement that will garner an enormous amount of public interest. Current and upcoming research efforts and missions aimed at detecting past and extant life could be supported by a consensus framework to plan for, assess and discuss life detection claims (c.f. Green et al., 2021). Such a framework could help increase the robustness of biosignature detection and interpretation, and improve communication with the scientific community and the public. In response to this need, and the call to the community to develop a confidence scale for standards of evidence for biosignature detection (Green et al., 2021), a community-organized workshop was held on July 19-22, 2021. The meeting was designed in a fully virtual (flipped) format. Preparatory materials including readings, instructional videos and activities were made available prior to the workshop, allowing the workshop schedule to be fully dedicated to active community discussion and prompted writing sessions. To maximize global interaction, the discussion components of the workshop were held during business hours in three different time zones, Asia/Pacific, European and US, with daily information hand-off between group organizers.

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arXiv2022

The long-term evolution of the atmosphere of Venus: processes and feedback mechanisms

This work reviews the long-term evolution of the atmosphere of Venus, and modulation of its composition by interior-exterior cycling. The formation and evolution of Venus's atmosphere, leading to contemporary surface conditions, remain hotly debated topics, and involve questions that tie into many disciplines. We explore these various inter-related mechanisms which shaped the evolution of the atmosphere, starting with the volatile sources and sinks. Going from the deep interior to the top of the atmosphere, we describe volcanic outgassing, surface atmosphere interactions, and atmosphere escape. Furthermore, we address more complex aspects of the history of Venus, including the role of Late Accretion impacts, how magnetic field generation is tied into long-term evolution, and the implications of geochemical and geodynamical feedback cycles for atmospheric evolution. We highlight plausible end-member evolutionary pathways that Venus could have followed, from accretion to its present-day state, based on modeling and observations. In a first scenario, the planet was desiccated by atmospheric escape during the magma ocean phase. In a second scenario, Venus could have harbored surface liquid water for long periods of time, until its temperate climate was destabilized and it entered a runaway greenhouse phase. In a third scenario, Venus's inefficient outgassing could have kept water inside the planet, where hydrogen was trapped in the core and the mantle was oxidized. We discuss existing evidence and future observations and missions required to refine our understanding of the planet's history and of the complex feedback cycles between the interior, surface, and atmosphere that have been operating in the past, present or future of Venus.

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arXiv2022

Predictions for Observable Atmospheres of Trappist-1 Planets from a Fully Coupled Atmosphere-Interior Evolution Model

The Trappist-1 planets provide a unique opportunity to test the current understanding of rocky planet evolution. The James Webb Space Telescope is expected to characterize the atmospheres of these planets, potentially detecting CO$_2$, CO, H$_2$O, CH$_4$, or abiotic O$_2$ from water photodissociation and subsequent hydrogen escape. Here, we apply a coupled atmosphere-interior evolution model to the Trappist-1 planets to anticipate their modern atmospheres. This model, which has previously been validated for Earth and Venus, connects magma ocean crystallization to temperate geochemical cycling. Mantle convection, magmatic outgassing, atmospheric escape, crustal oxidation, a radiative-convective climate model, and deep volatile cycling are explicitly coupled to anticipate bulk atmospheres and planetary redox evolution over 8 Gyr. By adopting a Monte Carlo approach that samples a broad range of initial conditions and unknown parameters, we make some tentative predictions about current Trappist-1 atmospheres. We find that anoxic atmospheres are probable, but not guaranteed, for the outer planets; oxygen produced via hydrogen loss during the pre-main sequence is typically consumed by crustal sinks. In contrast, oxygen accumulation on the inner planets occurs in around half of all models runs. Complete atmospheric erosion is possible but not assured for the inner planets (occurs in 20%-50% of model runs), whereas the outer planets retain significant surface volatiles in virtually all model simulations. For all planets that retain substantial atmospheres, CO$_2$-dominated or CO$_2$-O$_2$ atmospheres are expected; water vapor is unlikely to be a detectable atmospheric constituent in most cases. There are necessarily many caveats to these predictions, but the ways in which they misalign with upcoming observations will highlight gaps in terrestrial planet knowledge.

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arXiv2022

The Case and Context for Atmospheric Methane as an Exoplanet Biosignature

Methane has been proposed as an exoplanet biosignature. Imminent observations with the James Webb Space Telescope may enable methane detections on potentially habitable exoplanets, so it is essential to assess in what planetary contexts methane is a compelling biosignature. Methane's short photochemical lifetime in terrestrial planet atmospheres implies that abundant methane requires large replenishment fluxes. While methane can be produced by a variety of abiotic mechanisms such as outgassing, serpentinizing reactions, and impacts, we argue that, in contrast to an Earth-like biosphere, known abiotic processes cannot easily generate atmospheres rich in CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ with limited CO due to the strong redox disequilibrium between CH$_4$ and CO$_2$. Methane is thus more likely to be biogenic for planets with 1) a terrestrial bulk density, high mean-molecular-weight and anoxic atmosphere, and an old host star; 2) an abundance of CH$_4$ that implies surface fluxes exceeding what could be supplied by abiotic processes; and 3) atmospheric CO$_2$ with comparatively little CO.

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arXiv2022

Understanding planetary context to enable life detection on exoplanets and test the Copernican principle

The search for life on exoplanets is motivated by the universal ways in which life could modify its planetary environment. Atmospheric gases such as oxygen and methane are promising candidates for such environmental modification due to the evolutionary benefits their production would confer. However, confirming that these gases are produced by life, rather than by geochemical or astrophysical processes, will require a thorough understanding of planetary context, including the expected counterfactual atmospheric evolution for lifeless planets. Here, we evaluate current understanding of planetary context for several candidate biosignatures and their upcoming observability. We review the contextual framework for oxygen and describe how conjectured abiotic oxygen scenarios may be testable. In contrast to oxygen, current understanding of how planetary context controls non-biological methane (CH$_4$) production is limited, even though CH$_4$ biosignatures in anoxic atmospheres may be readily detectable with the James Webb Space Telescope. We assess environmental context for CH$_4$ biosignatures and conclude that abundant atmospheric CH$_4$ coexisting with CO$_2$, and CO:CH$_4$ << 1 is suggestive of biological production, although precise thresholds are dependent on stellar context and sparsely characterized abiotic CH$_4$ scenarios. A planetary context framework is also considered for alternative or agnostic biosignatures. Whatever the distribution of life in the Universe, observations of terrestrial exoplanets in coming decades will provide a quantitative understanding of the atmospheric evolution of lifeless worlds. This knowledge will inform future instrument requirements to either corroborate the presence of life elsewhere or confirm its apparent absence.

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arXiv2021

Was Venus Ever Habitable? Constraints from a Coupled Interior-Atmosphere-Redox Evolution Model

Venus's past climate evolution is uncertain. General circulation model simulations permit a habitable climate as late as ~0.7 Ga, and there is suggestive-albeit inconclusive-evidence for previous liquid water from surface geomorphology and mineralogy. However, it is unclear whether a habitable past can be reconciled with Venus's inferred atmospheric evolution. In particular, the lack of leftover atmospheric oxygen argues against recent water loss. Here, we apply a fully coupled model of Venus's atmospheric-interior-climate evolution from post-accretion magma ocean to present. The model self-consistently tracks C-, H-, and O-bearing volatiles and surface climate through the entirety of Venus's history. Atmospheric escape, mantle convection, melt production, outgassing, deep water cycling, and carbon cycling are explicitly coupled to climate and redox evolution. Plate tectonic and stagnant lid histories are considered. Using this coupled model, we conclude that both a habitable Venusian past and one where Venus never possessed liquid surface water can be reconciled with known constraints. Specifically, either scenario can reproduce bulk atmospheric composition, inferred surface heat flow, and observed $^{40}$Ar and $^{4}$He. Moreover, the model suggests that Venus could have been habitable with a ~100 m global ocean as late as 1 Ga, without violating any known constraints. In fact, if diffusion-limited water loss is throttled by a cool, CO$_2$-dominated upper atmosphere, then a habitable past is tentatively favored by our model. This escape throttling makes it difficult to simultaneously recover negligible water vapor and ~90 bar CO$_2$ in the modern atmosphere without temporarily sequestering carbon in the interior via silicate weathering to enhance H escape.

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arXiv2021

Waterworlds Probably Do Not Experience Magmatic Outgassing

Terrestrial planets with large water inventories are likely ubiquitous and will be among the first Earth-sized planets to be characterized with upcoming telescopes. It has previously been argued that waterworlds-particularly those possessing more than 1% H$_2$O-experience limited melt production and outgassing due to the immense pressure overburden of their overlying oceans, unless subject to high internal heating. But an additional, underappreciated obstacle to outgassing on waterworlds is the high solubility of volatiles in high-pressure melts. Here, we investigate this phenomenon and show that volatile solubilities in melts probably prevent almost all magmatic outgassing from waterworlds. Specifically, for Earth-like gravity and oceanic crust composition, oceans or water ice exceeding 10-100 km in depth (0.1-1 GPa) preclude the exsolution of volatiles from partial melt of silicates. This solubility limit compounds the pressure overburden effect as large surface oceans limit both melt production and degassing from any partial melt that is produced. We apply these calculations to Trappist-1 planets to show that, given current mass and radius constraints and implied surface water inventories, Trappist-1f and -1g are unlikely to experience volcanic degassing. While other mechanisms for interior-surface volatile exchange are not completely excluded, the suppression of magmatic outgassing simplifies the range of possible atmospheric evolution trajectories and has implications for interpretation of ostensible biosignature gases, which we illustrate with a coupled model of planetary interior-climate-atmosphere evolution.

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arXiv2021

Oxygen False Positives on Habitable Zone Planets Around Sun-Like Stars

Oxygen is a promising exoplanet biosignature due to the evolutionary advantage conferred by harnessing starlight for photosynthesis, and the apparent low likelihood of maintaining oxygen-rich atmospheres without life. Hypothetical scenarios have been proposed for non-biological oxygen accumulation on planets around late M-dwarfs, where the extended pre-main sequence may favor abiotic O$_2$ accumulation. In contrast, abiotic oxygen accumulation on planets around F, G, and K-type stars is seemingly less likely, provided they possess substantial non-condensable gas inventories. The comparative robustness of oxygen biosignatures around larger stars has motivated plans for next-generation telescopes capable of oxygen detection on planets around sun-like stars. However, the general tendency of terrestrial planets to develop oxygen-rich atmospheres across a broad range of initial conditions and evolutionary scenarios has not been explored. Here, we use a coupled thermal-geochemical-climate model of terrestrial planet evolution to illustrate three scenarios whereby significant abiotic oxygen can accumulate around sun-like stars, even when significant non-condensable gas inventories are present. For Earth-mass planets, we find abiotic oxygen can accumulate to modern levels if (1) the CO$_2$:H$_2$O ratio of the initial volatile inventory is high, (2) the initial water inventory exceeds ~50 Earth oceans, or (3) the initial water inventory is very low. Fortunately, these three abiotic oxygen scenarios could be distinguished from biological oxygen with observations of other atmospheric constituents or characterizing the planetary surface. This highlights the need for broadly capable next-generation telescopes that are equipped to constrain surface water inventories via time-resolved photometry and search for temporal biosignatures or disequilibrium biosignatures to assess whether oxygen is biogenic.

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arXiv2020

Carbonate-Silicate Cycle Predictions of Earth-like Planetary Climates and Testing the Habitable Zone Concept

In the conventional habitable zone (HZ) concept, a CO$_{2}$-H$_2$O greenhouse maintains surface liquid water. Through the water-mediated carbonate-silicate weathering cycle, atmospheric CO$_{2}$ partial pressure (pCO$_{2}$) responds to changes in surface temperature, stabilizing the climate over geologic timescales. We show that this weathering feedback ought to produce a log-linear relationship between pCO$_{2}$ and incident flux on Earth-like planets in the HZ. However, this trend has scatter because geophysical and physicochemical parameters can vary, such as land area for weathering and CO$_2$ outgassing fluxes. Using a coupled climate and carbonate-silicate weathering model, we quantify the likely scatter in pCO$_2$ with orbital distance throughout the HZ. From this dispersion, we predict a two-dimensional relationship between incident flux and pCO$_2$ in the HZ and show that it could be detected from at least 83 ($2σ$) Earth-like exoplanet observations. If fewer Earth-like exoplanets are observed, testing the HZ hypothesis from this relationship could be difficult.

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arXiv2020

Abundant atmospheric methane from volcanism on terrestrial planets is unlikely and strengthens the case for methane as a biosignature

The disequilibrium combination of abundant methane and carbon dioxide has been proposed as a promising exoplanet biosignature that is readily detectable with upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope. However, few studies have explored the possibility of non-biological CH4 and CO2 and related contextual clues. Here, we investigate whether magmatic volcanic outgassing on terrestrial planets can produce atmospheric CH4 and CO2 with a thermodynamic model. Our model suggests that volcanoes are unlikely to produce CH4 fluxes comparable to biological fluxes. Improbable cases where volcanoes produce biological amounts of CH4 also produce ample carbon monoxide. We show, using a photochemical model, that high abiotic CH4 abundances produced by volcanoes would be accompanied by high CO abundances, which could be a detectable false positive diagnostic. Overall, when considering known mechanisms for generating abiotic CH4 on terrestrial planets, we conclude that observations of atmospheric CH4 with CO2 are difficult to explain without the presence of biology when the CH4 abundance implies a surface flux comparable to modern Earth's biological CH4 flux. A small or negligible CO abundance strengthens the CH4+CO2 biosignature because life readily consumes atmospheric CO, while reducing volcanic gases likely cause CO to build up in a planet's atmosphere. Furthermore, the difficulty of volcanically-generated CH4-rich atmospheres suitable for an origin of life may favor alternatives such as impact-induced reducing atmospheres.

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