arXiv subjects

Joshua Pepper

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua Pepper.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

The Astropy Problem

The Astropy Project (http://astropy.org) is, in its own words, "a community effort to develop a single core package for Astronomy in Python and foster interoperability between Python astronomy packages." For five years this project has been managed, written, and operated as a grassroots, self-organized, almost entirely volunteer effort while the software is used by the majority of the astronomical community. Despite this, the project has always been and remains to this day effectively unfunded. Further, contributors receive little or no formal recognition for creating and supporting what is now critical software. This paper explores the problem in detail, outlines possible solutions to correct this, and presents a few suggestions on how to address the sustainability of general purpose astronomical software.

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arXiv2016

KELT-17b: A hot-Jupiter transiting an A-star in a misaligned orbit detected with Doppler tomography

We present the discovery of a hot-Jupiter transiting the V=9.23 mag main-sequence A-star KELT-17 (BD+14 1881). KELT-17b is a 1.31 -0.29/+0.28 Mj, 1.525 -0.060/+0.065 Rj hot-Jupiter in a 3.08 day period orbit misaligned at -115.9 +/- 4.1 deg to the rotation axis of the star. The planet is confirmed via both the detection of the radial velocity orbit, and the Doppler tomographic detection of the shadow of the planet over two transits. The nature of the spin-orbit misaligned transit geometry allows us to place a constraint on the level of differential rotation in the host star; we find that KELT-17 is consistent with both rigid-body rotation and solar differential rotation rates (alpha < 0.30 at 2 sigma significance). KELT-17 is only the fourth A-star with a confirmed transiting planet, and with a mass of 1.635 -0.061/+0.066 Msun, effective temperature of 7454 +/- 49 K, and projected rotational velocity v sin I_* = 44.2 -1.3/+1.5 km/s; it is amongst the most massive, hottest, and most rapidly rotating of known planet hosts.

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arXiv2016

KELT-12b: A $P \sim 5$ Day, Highly Inflated Hot Jupiter Transiting a Mildly Evolved Hot Star

We report the discovery of KELT-12b, a highly inflated Jupiter-mass planet transiting a mildly evolved host star. We identified the initial transit signal in the KELT-North survey data and established the planetary nature of the companion through precise follow-up photometry, high-resolution spectroscopy, precise radial velocity measurements, and high-resolution adaptive optics imaging. Our preferred best-fit model indicates that the $V = 10.64$ host, TYC 2619-1057-1, has $T_{\rm eff} = 6278 \pm 51$ K, $\log{g_\star} = 3.89^{+0.054}_{-0.051}$, and [Fe/H] = $0.19^{+0.083}_{-0.085}$, with an inferred mass $M_{\star} = 1.59^{+0.071}_{-0.091} M_\odot$ and radius $R_\star = 2.37 \pm 0.18 R_\odot$. The planetary companion has $M_{\rm P} = 0.95 \pm 0.14 M_{\rm J}$, $R_{\rm P} = 1.79^{+0.18}_{-0.17} R_{\rm J}$, $\log{g_{\rm P}} = 2.87^{+0.097}_{-0.098}$, and density $ρ_{\rm P} = 0.21^{+0.075}_{-0.054}$ g cm$^{-3}$, making it one of the most inflated giant planets known. The time of inferior conjunction in ${\rm BJD_{TDB}}$ is $2457088.692055 \pm 0.0009$ and the period is $P = 5.0316144 \pm 0.0000306$ days. Despite the relatively large separation of $\sim0.07$ AU implied by its $\sim 5.03$-day orbital period, KELT-12b receives significant flux of $2.93^{+0.33}_{-0.30} \times 10^9$ erg s$^{-1}$ cm$^{-2}$ from its host. We compare the radii and insolations of transiting gas-giant planets around hot ($T_{\rm eff} \geq 6250$ K) and cool stars, noting that the observed paucity of known transiting giants around hot stars with low insolation is likely due to selection effects. We underscore the significance of long-term ground-based monitoring of hot stars and space-based targeting of hot stars with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) to search for inflated giants in longer-period orbits.

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arXiv2016

Planet Formation Imager (PFI): science vision and key requirements

The Planet Formation Imager (PFI) project aims to provide a strong scientific vision for ground-based optical astronomy beyond the upcoming generation of Extremely Large Telescopes. We make the case that a breakthrough in angular resolution imaging capabilities is required in order to unravel the processes involved in planet formation. PFI will be optimised to provide a complete census of the protoplanet population at all stellocentric radii and over the age range from 0.1 to about 100 Myr. Within this age period, planetary systems undergo dramatic changes and the final architecture of planetary systems is determined. Our goal is to study the planetary birth on the natural spatial scale where the material is assembled, which is the "Hill Sphere" of the forming planet, and to characterise the protoplanetary cores by measuring their masses and physical properties. Our science working group has investigated the observational characteristics of these young protoplanets as well as the migration mechanisms that might alter the system architecture. We simulated the imprints that the planets leave in the disk and study how PFI could revolutionise areas ranging from exoplanet to extragalactic science. In this contribution we outline the key science drivers of PFI and discuss the requirements that will guide the technology choices, the site selection, and potential science/technology tradeoffs.

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arXiv2016

DM Ori: A Young Star Occulted by a Disturbance in its Protoplanetary Disk

In some planet formation theories, protoplanets grow gravitationally within a young star's protoplanetary disk, a signature of which may be a localized disturbance in the disk's radial and/or vertical structure. Using time-series photometric observations by the Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope South (KELT-South) project and the All-Sky Automated Survey for SuperNovae (ASAS-SN), combined with archival observations, we present the discovery of two extended dimming events of the young star, DM Ori. This young system faded by $\sim$1.5 mag from 2000 March to 2002 August and then again in 2013 January until 2014 September (depth $\sim$1.7 mag). We constrain the duration of the 2000-2002 dimming to be $<$ 860 days, and the event in 2013-2014 to be $<$ 585 days, separated by $\sim$12.5 years. A model of the spectral energy distribution (SED) indicates a large infrared excess consistent with an extensive circumstellar disk. Using basic kinematic arguments, we propose that DM Ori is likely being periodically occulted by a feature (possibly a warp or perturbation) in its circumstellar disk. In this scenario, the occulting feature is located $>$6 AU from the host star, moving at $\sim$14.6 km/s, and is $\sim$4.9 AU in width. This localized structure may indicate a disturbance such as may be caused by a protoplanet early in its formation.

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arXiv2016

KELT-10b: The First Transiting Exoplanet from the KELT-South Survey -- A Hot Sub-Jupiter Transiting a V = 10.7 Early G-Star

We report the discovery of KELT-10b, the first transiting exoplanet discovered using the KELT-South telescope. KELT-10b is a highly inflated sub-Jupiter mass planet transiting a relatively bright $V = 10.7$ star (TYC 8378-64-1), with T$_{eff}$ = $5948\pm74$ K, $\log{g}$ = $4.319_{-0.030}^{+0.020}$ and [Fe/H] = $0.09_{-0.10}^{+0.11}$, an inferred mass M$_{*}$ = $1.112_{-0.061}^{+0.055}$ M$_{\odot}$ and radius R$_{*}$ = $1.209_{-0.035}^{+0.047}$ R$_{\odot}$. The planet has a radius R$_{P}$ = $1.399_{-0.049}^{+0.069}$ R$_{J}$ and mass M$_{P}$ = $0.679_{-0.038}^{+0.039}$ M$_{J}$. The planet has an eccentricity consistent with zero and a semi-major axis $a$ = $0.05250_{-0.00097}^{+0.00086}$ AU. The best fitting linear ephemeris is $T_{0}$ = 2457066.72045$\pm$0.00027 BJD$_{TDB}$ and P = 4.1662739$\pm$0.0000063 days. This planet joins a group of highly inflated transiting exoplanets with a radius much larger and a mass much less than those of Jupiter. The planet, which boasts deep transits of 1.4%, has a relatively high equilibrium temperature of T$_{eq}$ = $1377_{-23}^{+28}$ K, assuming zero albedo and perfect heat redistribution. KELT-10b receives an estimated insolation of $0.817_{-0.054}^{+0.068}$ $\times$ 10$^9$ erg s$^{-1}$ cm$^{-2}$, which places it far above the insolation threshold above which hot Jupiters exhibit increasing amounts of radius inflation. Evolutionary analysis of the host star suggests that KELT-10b is unlikely to survive beyond the current subgiant phase, due to a concomitant in-spiral of the planet over the next $\sim$1 Gyr. The planet transits a relatively bright star and exhibits the third largest transit depth of all transiting exoplanets with V $<$ 11 in the southern hemisphere, making it a promising candidate for future atmospheric characterization studies.

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arXiv2016

KELT-11b: A Highly Inflated Sub-Saturn Exoplanet Transiting the V=8 Subgiant HD 93396

We report the discovery of a transiting exoplanet, KELT-11b, orbiting the bright ($V=8.0$) subgiant HD 93396. A global analysis of the system shows that the host star is an evolved subgiant star with $T_{\rm eff} = 5370\pm51$ K, $M_{*} = 1.438_{-0.052}^{+0.061} M_{\odot}$, $R_{*} = 2.72_{-0.17}^{+0.21} R_{\odot}$, log $g_*= 3.727_{-0.046}^{+0.040}$, and [Fe/H]$ = 0.180\pm0.075$. The planet is a low-mass gas giant in a $P = 4.736529\pm0.00006$ day orbit, with $M_{P} = 0.195\pm0.018 M_J$, $R_{P}= 1.37_{-0.12}^{+0.15} R_J$, $ρ_{P} = 0.093_{-0.024}^{+0.028}$ g cm$^{-3}$, surface gravity log ${g_{P}} = 2.407_{-0.086}^{+0.080}$, and equilibrium temperature $T_{eq} = 1712_{-46}^{+51}$ K. KELT-11 is the brightest known transiting exoplanet host in the southern hemisphere by more than a magnitude, and is the 6th brightest transit host to date. The planet is one of the most inflated planets known, with an exceptionally large atmospheric scale height (2763 km), and an associated size of the expected atmospheric transmission signal of 5.6%. These attributes make the KELT-11 system a valuable target for follow-up and atmospheric characterization, and it promises to become one of the benchmark systems for the study of inflated exoplanets.

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arXiv2016

Kepler-1647b: the largest and longest-period Kepler transiting circumbinary planet

We report the discovery of a new Kepler transiting circumbinary planet (CBP). This latest addition to the still-small family of CBPs defies the current trend of known short-period planets orbiting near the stability limit of binary stars. Unlike the previous discoveries, the planet revolving around the eclipsing binary system Kepler-1647 has a very long orbital period (~1100 days) and was at conjunction only twice during the Kepler mission lifetime. Due to the singular configuration of the system, Kepler-1647b is not only the longest-period transiting CBP at the time of writing, but also one of the longest-period transiting planets. With a radius of 1.06+/-0.01 RJup it is also the largest CBP to date. The planet produced three transits in the light-curve of Kepler-1647 (one of them during an eclipse, creating a syzygy) and measurably perturbed the times of the stellar eclipses, allowing us to measure its mass to be 1.52+/-0.65 MJup. The planet revolves around an 11-day period eclipsing binary consisting of two Solar-mass stars on a slightly inclined, mildly eccentric (e_bin = 0.16), spin-synchronized orbit. Despite having an orbital period three times longer than Earth's, Kepler-1647b is in the conservative habitable zone of the binary star throughout its orbit.

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arXiv2016

The Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope: Searching for Transiting Exoplanets in the Northern and Southern Sky

The Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT) survey is a ground-based program designed to search for transiting exoplanets orbiting relatively bright stars. To achieve this, the KELT Science Team operates two planets facilities - KELT-North, at Winer Observatory, Arizona, and KELT-South, at the South African Astronomical Observatory. The telescopes used at these observatories have particularly wide fields of view, allowing KELT to study a large number of potential exoplanet host stars. One of the major advantages of targeting bright stars is that the exoplanet candidates detected can be easily followed up by small, ground-based observatories distributed around the world. This paper will provide a brief overview of the KELT-North and the KELT-South surveys, the follow-up observations preformed by the KELT Follow-up Collaboration, and exoplanet discoveries confirmed thus far, before concluding with a brief discussion of the future for the KELT program.

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arXiv2016

The Stability of F-star Brightness on Century Timescales

The century-long photometric record of the DASCH project provides a unique window into the variability of stars normally considered to be photometrically inactive. In this paper, we look for long-term trends in the brightness of F stars, with particular attention to KIC 8462852,an F3 main sequence star that has been identified as significant short-term variability according to Kepler observations. Although a simple search for variability suggests long-term dimming of a number of F stars, we find that such trends are artifacts of the 'Menzel Gap' in the DASCH data. That includes the behavior of KIC 8462852, which we believe is consistent with constant flux over the full duration of observations. We do, however, present a selection of F stars that do have significant photometric trends, even after systematics are taken into account.

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arXiv2016

A statistical analysis of the accuracy of the digitized magnitudes of photometric plates on the time scale of decades with an application to the century-long light curve of KIC 8462852

We present a statistical analysis of the accuracy of the digitized magnitudes of photometric plates on the time scale of decades. In our examination of archival Johnson B photometry from the Harvard DASCH archive, we find a median RMS scatter of lightcurves of order 0.15mag over the range B~9-17 for all calibrations. Slight underlying systematics (trends or flux discontinuities) are on a level of ~<=0.2mag per century (1889-1990) for the majority of constant stars. These historic data can be unambiguously used for processes that happen on scales of magnitudes, and need to be carefully examined in cases approaching the noise floor. The characterization of these limits in photometric stability may guide future studies in their use of plate archives. We explain these limitations for the example case of KIC8462852, which has been claimed to dim by 0.16mag per century, and show that this trend cannot be considered as significant.

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arXiv2016

An Extreme Analogue of $ε$ Aurigae: An M-giant Eclipsed Every 69 Years by a Large Opaque Disk Surrounding a Small Hot Source

We present TYC 2505-672-1 as a newly discovered and remarkable eclipsing system comprising an M-type red giant that undergoes a ~3.45 year long, near-total eclipse (depth of ~4.5 mag) with a very long period of ~69.1 yr. TYC 2505-672-1 is now the longest-period eclipsing binary system yet discovered, more than twice as long as that of the currently longest-period system, $ε$ Aurigae. We show from analysis of the light curve including both our own data and historical data spanning more than 120 yr and from modeling of the spectral energy distribution, both before and during eclipse, that the red giant primary is orbited by a moderately hot source (T$_{eff}$~8000 K) that is itself surrounded by an extended, opaque circumstellar disk. From the measured ratio of luminosities, the radius of the hot companion must be in the range 0.1-0.5 Rsun (depending on the assumed radius of the red giant primary), which is an order of magnitude smaller than that for a main sequence A star and 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than that for a white dwarf. The companion is therefore most likely a "stripped red giant" subdwarf-B type star destined to become a He white dwarf. It is however somewhat cooler than most sdB stars, implying a very low mass for this "pre-He-WD" star. The opaque disk surrounding this hot source may be a remnant of the stripping of its former hydrogen envelope. However, it is puzzling how this object became stripped, given that it is at present so distant (orbital semi-major axis of ~24 AU) from the current red giant primary star. Extrapolating from our calculated ephemeris, the next eclipse should begin in early UT 2080 April and end in mid UT 2083 September (eclipse center UT 2081 December 24). This system is poised to become an exemplar of a very rare class of systems, even more extreme in several respects than the well studied archetype $ε$ Aurigae.

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arXiv2016

KELT-14b and KELT-15b: An Independent Discovery of WASP-122b and a New Hot Jupiter

We report the discovery of KELT-14b and KELT-15b, two hot Jupiters from the KELT-South survey. KELT-14b, an independent discovery of the recently announced WASP-122b, is an inflated Jupiter mass planet that orbits a $\sim5.0^{+0.3}_{-0.7}$ Gyr, $V$ = 11.0, G2 star that is near the main sequence turnoff. The host star, KELT-14 (TYC 7638-981-1), has an inferred mass $M_{*}$=$1.18_{-0.07}^{+0.05}$$M_{\odot}$ and radius $R_{*}$=$1.37\pm{-0.08}$$R_{\odot}$, and has $T_{eff}$=$5802_{-92}^{+95}$K, $\log{g_*}$=$4.23_{-0.04}^{+0.05}$ and =$0.33\pm{0.09}$. The planet orbits with a period of $1.7100588 \pm 0.0000025$ days ($T_{0}$=2457091.02863$\pm$0.00047) and has a radius R$_{p}$=$1.52_{-0.11}^{+0.12}$$R_{J}$ and mass M$_{p}$=$1.196\pm0.072$$M_{J}$, and the eccentricity is consistent with zero. KELT-15b is another inflated Jupiter mass planet that orbits a $\sim$ $4.6^{+0.5}_{-0.4}$ Gyr, $V$ = 11.2, G0 star (TYC 8146-86-1) that is near the "blue hook" stage of evolution prior to the Hertzsprung gap, and has an inferred mass $M_{*}$=$1.181_{-0.050}^{+0.051}$$M_{\odot}$ and radius $R_{*}$=$1.48_{-0.04}^{+0.09}$$R_{\odot}$, and $T_{eff}$=$6003_{-52}^{+56}$K, $\log{g_*}$=$4.17_{-0.04}^{+0.02}$ and [Fe/H]=$0.05\pm0.03$. The planet orbits on a period of $3.329441 \pm 0.000016$ days ($T_{0}$ = 2457029.1663$\pm$0.0073) and has a radius R$_{p}$=$1.443_{-0.057}^{+0.11}$$R_{J}$ and mass M$_{p}$=$0.91_{-0.22}^{+0.21}$$M_{J}$ and an eccentricity consistent with zero. KELT-14b has the second largest expected emission signal in the K-band for known transiting planets brighter than $K<10.5$. Both KELT-14b and KELT-15b are predicted to have large enough emission signals that their secondary eclipses should be detectable using ground-based observatories.

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arXiv2016

Companions to APOGEE Stars I: A Milky Way-Spanning Catalog of Stellar and Substellar Companion Candidates and their Diverse Hosts

In its three years of operation, the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-III) Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE-1) observed $>$14,000 stars with enough epochs over a sufficient temporal baseline for the fitting of Keplerian orbits. We present the custom orbit-fitting pipeline used to create this catalog, which includes novel quality metrics that account for the phase and velocity coverage of a fitted Keplerian orbit. With a typical RV precision of $\sim100-200$ m s$^{-1}$, APOGEE can probe systems with small separation companions down to a few Jupiter masses. Here we present initial results from a catalog of 382 of the most compelling stellar and substellar companion candidates detected by APOGEE, which orbit a variety of host stars in diverse Galactic environments. Of these, 376 have no previously known small separation companion. The distribution of companion candidates in this catalog shows evidence for an extremely truncated brown dwarf (BD) desert with a paucity of BD companions only for systems with $a < 0.1-0.2$ AU, with no indication of a desert at larger orbital separation. We propose a few potential explanations of this result, some which invoke this catalog's many small separation companion candidates found orbiting evolved stars. Furthermore, 16 BD and planet candidates have been identified around metal-poor ([Fe/H] $< -0.5$) stars in this catalog, which may challenge the core accretion model for companions $>10 M_{Jup}$. Finally, we find all types of companions are ubiquitous throughout the Galactic disk with candidate planetary-mass and BD companions to distances of $\sim6$ and $\sim16$ kpc, respectively.

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arXiv2015

Kepler Eclipsing Binary Stars. VII. The Catalog of Eclipsing Binaries Found in the Entire Kepler Data-Set

The primary Kepler Mission provided nearly continuous monitoring of ~200,000 objects with unprecedented photometric precision. We present the final catalog of eclipsing binary systems within the 105 square degree Kepler field of view. This release incorporates the full extent of the data from the primary mission (Q0-Q17 Data Release). As a result, new systems have been added, additional false positives have been removed, ephemerides and principal parameters have been recomputed, classifications have been revised to rely on analytical models, and eclipse timing variations have been computed for each system. We identify several classes of systems including those that exhibit tertiary eclipse events, systems that show clear evidence of additional bodies, heartbeat systems, systems with changing eclipse depths, and systems exhibiting only one eclipse event over the duration of the mission. We have updated the period and galactic latitude distribution diagrams and included a catalog completeness evaluation. The total number of identified eclipsing and ellipsoidal binary systems in the Kepler field of view has increased to 2878, 1.3% of all observed Kepler targets. An online version of this catalog with downloadable content and visualization tools is maintained at http://keplerEBs.villanova.edu.

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arXiv2015

Recurring Occultations of RW Aurigae by Coagulated Dust in the Tidally Disrupted Circumstellar Disk

We present photometric observations of RW Aurigae, a Classical T Tauri system, that reveal two remarkable dimming events. These events are similar to that which we observed in 2010-2011, which was the first such deep dimming observed in RW Aur in a century's worth of photometric monitoring. We suggested the 2010-2011 dimming was the result of an occultation of the star by its tidally disrupted circumstellar disk. In 2012-2013, the RW Aur system dimmed by ~0.7 mag for ~40 days and in 2014/2015 the system dimmed by ~2 mag for >250 days. The ingress/egress duration measurements of the more recent events agree well with those from the 2010-2011 event, providing strong evidence that the new dimmings are kinematically associated with the same occulting source. Therefore, we suggest that both the 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 dimming events, measured using data from the Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope and the Kutztown University Observatory, are also occultations of RW Aur A by tidally disrupted circumstellar material. Recent hydrodynamical simulations of the eccentric fly-by of RW Aur B suggest the occulting body to be a bridge of material connecting RW Aur A and B. These simulations suggest the possibility of additional occultations, supported by the observations presented in this work. The color evolution of the dimmings suggest that the tidally stripped disk material includes dust grains ranging in size from small grains at the leading edge, typical of star forming regions, to large grains, ices or pebbles producing grey or nearly grey extinction deeper within the occulting material. It is not known whether this material represents arrested planet building prior to the tidal disruption event, or perhaps accelerated planet building as a result of the disruption event, but in any case the evidence suggests the presence of advanced planet building material in the space between RW Aur A and B.

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arXiv2015

A Granulation "Flicker"-based Measure of Stellar Surface Gravity

In Bastien et al. (2013) we found that high quality light curves, such as those obtained by Kepler, may be used to measure stellar surface gravity via granulation-driven light curve "flicker". Here, we update and extend the relation originally presented in Bastien et al. (2013) after calibrating flicker against a more robust set of asteroseismically derived surface gravities. We describe in detail how we extract the flicker signal from the light curves, including how we treat phenomena, such as exoplanet transits and shot noise, that adversely affect the measurement of flicker. We examine the limitations of the technique, and, as a result, we now provide an updated treatment of the flicker-based logg error. We briefly highlight further applications of the technique, such as astrodensity profiling or its use in other types of stars with convective outer layers. We discuss potential uses in current and upcoming space-based photometric missions. Finally, we supply flicker-based logg values, and their uncertainties, for 27 628 Kepler stars not identified as transiting-planet hosts, with 4500<teff<7150 K, 2.5<logg<4.6, Kepler magnitude <13.5, and overall photometric amplitudes <10 parts per thousand.

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arXiv2015

KELT-4Ab: An inflated Hot Jupiter transiting the bright (V~10) component of a hierarchical triple

We report the discovery of KELT-4Ab, an inflated, transiting Hot Jupiter orbiting the brightest component of a hierarchical triple stellar system. The host star is an F star with $T_{\rm eff}=6206\pm75$ K, $\log g=4.108\pm0.014$, $\left[{\rm Fe}/{\rm H}\right]=-0.116_{-0.069}^{+0.065}$, ${\rm M_*}=1.201_{-0.061}^{+0.067} \ {\rm M}_{\odot}$, and ${\rm R_*}=1.610_{-0.068}^{+0.078} \ {\rm R}_{\odot}$. The best-fit linear ephemeris is $\rm {BJD_{TDB}} = 2456193.29157 \pm 0.00021 + E\left(2.9895936 \pm 0.0000048\right)$. With a magnitude of $V\sim10$, a planetary radius of $1.699_{-0.045}^{+0.046} \ {\rm R_J}$, and a mass of $0.902_{-0.059}^{+0.060} \ {\rm M_J}$, it is the brightest host among the population of inflated Hot Jupiters ($R_P > 1.5R_J$), making it a valuable discovery for probing the nature of inflated planets. In addition, its existence within a hierarchical triple and its proximity to Earth ($210$ pc) provides a unique opportunity for dynamical studies with continued monitoring with high resolution imaging and precision radial velocities. In particular, the motion of the binary stars around each other and of both stars around the primary star relative to the measured epoch in this work should be detectable when it rises in October 2015.

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