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Joshua Peters

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua Peters.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

LendNova: Towards Automated Credit Risk Assessment with Language Models

Credit risk assessment is essential in the financial sector, but has traditionally depended on costly feature-based models that often fail to utilize all available information in raw credit records. This paper introduces LendNova, the first practical automated end-to-end pipeline for credit risk assessment, designed to utilize all available information in raw credit records by leveraging advanced NLP techniques and language models. LendNova transforms risk modeling by operating directly on raw, jargon-heavy credit bureau text using a language model that learns task-relevant representations without manual feature engineering. By automatically capturing patterns and risk signals embedded in the text, it replaces manual preprocessing steps, reducing costs and improving scalability. Evaluation on real-world data further demonstrates its strong potential in accurate and efficient risk assessment. LendNova establishes a baseline for intelligent credit risk agents, demonstrating the feasibility of language models in this domain. It lays the groundwork for future research toward foundation systems that enable more accurate, adaptable, and automated financial decision-making.

cs.LG

Jumping for diffusion in random metastable systems

Random metastability occurs when an externally forced or noisy system possesses more than one state of apparent equilibrium. This work investigates fluctuations in a class of random dynamical systems, arising from randomly perturbing a piecewise smooth expanding interval map with more than one invariant subinterval. Upon perturbation, this invariance is destroyed, allowing trajectories to switch between subintervals, giving rise to metastable behaviour. We show that the distributions of jumps of a time-homogeneous Markov chain approximate the distributions of jumps for random metastable systems. Additionally, we demonstrate that this approximation extends to the diffusion coefficient for (random) observables of such systems. As an example, our results are applied to Horan's random paired tent maps.

math.DS

Averaging for random metastable systems

Random metastability occurs when an externally forced or noisy system possesses more than one state of apparent equilibrium. This work investigates a class of random dynamical systems, arising from perturbing a one-dimensional piecewise smooth expanding map of the interval with two invariant subintervals, each supporting a unique ergodic absolutely continuous invariant measure. Upon perturbation, this invariance is destroyed, allowing trajectories to randomly switch between subintervals. We show that the invariant density of the randomly perturbed system may be approximated by an explicit convex combination of the two initially invariant densities, obtained by averaging. Further, we also identify the limit of the second Oseledets space, or coherent structure, as the perturbation shrinks to zero. Our results are applied to random paired tent maps over ergodic, measure-preserving, and invertible driving systems. Finally, we provide generalisations to systems admitting more than two initially invariant sets.

math.DS

Prevalence of stability for smooth Blaschke product cocycles fixing the origin

This work investigates the stability properties of Lyapunov exponents of transfer operator cocycles from a measure-theoretic perspective. Our results focus on so-called Blaschke product cocycles, a class of random dynamical systems amenable to rigorous analysis. We show that prevalence of stability is related to the dimension of the base system's domain, $\Omega$. When $\Omega=S^1$, we show that stability is prevalent among smooth monic quadratic Blaschke product cocycles fixing the origin by constructing a so-called probe. For higher dimensional $\Omega$, we show that a probe does not exist, thus providing strong evidence that stability is not prevalent in this setting. Finally, through a perturbative method we show that almost every smooth Blaschke product cocycle fixing the origin is stable.

math.DS