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Joshua S. Speagle

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua S. Speagle.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Katachi: Decoding the Imprints of Past Star Formation on Present Day Morphology in Galaxies with Interpretable CNNs

The physical processes responsible for shaping how galaxies form and quench over time leave imprints on both the spatial (galaxy morphology) and temporal (star formation history; SFH) tracers that we use to study galaxies. While the morphology-SFR connection is well studied, the correlation with past star formation activity is not as well understood. To quantify this we present Katachi, an interpretable convolutional neural network (CNN) framework that learns the connection between the factors regulating star formation in galaxies on different spatial and temporal scales. Katachi is trained on 9904 galaxies at 0.02$<$z$<$0.1 in the SDSS-IV MaNGA DR17 sample to predict stellar mass (M$_*$; RMSE 0.22 dex), current star formation rate (SFR; RMSE 0.31 dex) and half-mass time (t$_{50}$; RMSE 0.23 dex). This information allows us to reconstruct non-parametric SFHs for each galaxy from \textit{gri} imaging alone. To quantify the morphological features informing the SFH predictions we use SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations). We recover the expected trends of M$_*$ governed by the growth of galaxy bulges, and SFR correlating with spiral arms and other star-forming regions. We also find the SHAP maps of D4000 are more complex than those of M$_*$ and SFR, and that morphology is correlated with t$_{50}$ even at fixed mass and SFR. Katachi serves as a scalable public framework to predict galaxy properties from large imaging surveys including Rubin, Roman, and Euclid, with large datasets of high SNR imaging across limited photometric bands.

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Extending the Chemical Reach of the H3 Survey: Detailed Abundances of the Dwarf-galaxy Stellar Stream Wukong/LMS-1

We present the first detailed chemical-abundance analysis of stars from the dwarf-galaxy stellar stream Wukong/LMS-1 covering a wide metallicity range ($-3.5 < \rm[Fe/H] \lesssim -1.3$). We find abundance patterns that are effectively indistinguishable from the bulk of Indus and Jhelum, a pair of smaller stellar streams proposed to be dynamically associated with Wukong/LMS-1. We confirmed a carbon-enhanced metal-poor star ($\rm[C/Fe] > +0.7$ and $\rm[Fe/H] \sim -2.9$) in Wukong/LMS-1 with strong enhancements in Sr, Y, and Zr, which is peculiar given its solar-level [Ba/Fe]. Wukong/LMS-1 stars have high abundances of $α$ elements up to $\rm[Fe/H] \gtrsim -2$, which is expected for relatively massive dwarfs. Towards the high-metallicity end, Wukong/LMS-1 becomes $α$-poor, revealing that it probably experienced fairly standard chemical evolution. We identified a pair of N- and Na-rich stars in Wukong/LMS-1, reminiscent of multiple populations in globular clusters. This indicates that this dwarf galaxy contained at least one globular cluster that was completely disrupted in addition to two intact ones previously known to be associated with Wukong/LMS-1, which is possibly connected to similar evidence found in Indus. From these $\geq$3 globular clusters, we estimate the total mass of Wukong/LMS-1 to be ${\approx}10^{10} M_\odot$, representing ${\sim}1$% of the present-day Milky Way. Finally, the [Eu/Mg] ratio in Wukong/LMS-1 continuously increases with metallicity, making this the first example of a dwarf galaxy where the production of $r$-process elements is clearly dominated by delayed sources, presumably neutron-star mergers.

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A parsec-scale Galactic 3D dust map out to 1.25 kpc from the Sun

High-resolution 3D maps of interstellar dust are critical for probing the underlying physics shaping the structure of the interstellar medium, and for foreground correction of astrophysical observations affected by dust. We aim to construct a new 3D map of the spatial distribution of interstellar dust extinction out to a distance of 1.25 kpc from the Sun. We leveraged distance and extinction estimates to 54 million nearby stars derived from the Gaia BP/RP spectra. Using the stellar distance and extinction information, we inferred the spatial distribution of dust extinction. We modeled the logarithmic dust extinction with a Gaussian process in a spherical coordinate system via iterative charted refinement and a correlation kernel inferred in previous work. In total, our posterior has over 661 million degrees of freedom. We probed the posterior distribution using the variational inference method MGVI. Our 3D dust map has an angular resolution of up to 14' (Nside = 256), and we achieve parsec-scale distance resolution, sampling the dust in 516 logarithmically spaced distance bins spanning 69 pc to 1250 pc. We generated 12 samples from the variational posterior of the 3D dust distribution and release the samples alongside the mean 3D dust map and its corresponding uncertainty. Our map resolves the internal structure of hundreds of molecular clouds in the solar neighborhood and will be broadly useful for studies of star formation, Galactic structure, and young stellar populations. It is available for download in a variety of coordinate systems online and can also be queried via the publicly available dustmaps Python package.

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The Power of High Precision Broadband Photometry: Tracing the Milky Way Density Profile with Blue Horizontal Branch stars in the Dark Energy Survey

Blue Horizontal Branch (BHB) stars, excellent distant tracers for probing the Milky Way's halo density profile, are distinguished in the $(g-r)_0$ vs $(i-z)_0$ color space from another class of stars, blue straggler stars (BSs). We develop a Bayesian mixture model to classify BHB stars using high-precision photometry data from the Dark Energy Survey Data Release 2 (DES DR2). We select $\sim2100$ highly-probable BHBs based on their $griz$ photometry and the associated uncertainties, and use these stars to map the stellar halo over the Galactocentric radial range $20 \lesssim R \lesssim 70$ kpc. After excluding known stellar overdensities, we find that the number density $n_\star$ of BHBs can be represented by a power law density profile $n_\star \propto R^{-α}$ with an index of $α=4.28_{-0.12}^{+0.13}$, consistent with existing literature values. In addition, we examine the impact of systematic errors and the spatial inhomogeneity on the fitted density profile. Our work demonstrates the effectiveness of high-precision $griz$ photometry in selecting BHB stars. The upcoming photometric survey from the Rubin Observatory, expected to reach depths 2-3 magnitudes greater than DES during its 10-year mission, will enable us to investigate the density profile of the Milky Way's halo out to the virial radius, unravelling the complex processes of formation and evolution in our Galaxy.

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A catalogue of Galactic GEMS: Globular cluster Extra-tidal Mock Stars

This work presents the Globular cluster Extra-tidal Mock Star (GEMS) catalogue of extra-tidal stars and binaries created via three-body dynamical encounters in globular cluster cores. Using the particle-spray code Corespray, we sample N=50,000 extra-tidal stars and escaped recoil binaries for 159 Galactic globular clusters. Sky positions, kinematics, stellar properties and escape information are provided for all simulated stars. Stellar orbits are integrated in seven different static and time-varying Milky Way gravitational potential models where the structure of the disc, perturbations from the Large Magellanic Cloud and the mass and sphericity of the Milky Way's dark matter halo are all investigated. We find that the action coordinates of the mock extra-tidal stars are largely Galactic model independent, where minor offsets and broadening of the distributions between models are likely due to interactions with substructure. Importantly, we also report the first evidence for stellar stream contamination by globular cluster core stars and binaries for clusters with pericentre radii larger than five kiloparsecs. Finally, we provide a quantitative tool that uses action coordinates to match field stars to host clusters with probabilities. Ultimately, combining data from the GEMS catalogue with information of observed stars will allow for association of extra-tidal field stars with any Galactic globular cluster; a requisite tool for understanding population-level dynamics and evolution of clusters in the Milky Way.

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Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Globular Cluster Properties

We present a hierarchical Bayesian inference approach to estimating the structural properties and the phase space center of a globular cluster (GC) given the spatial and kinematic information of its stars based on lowered isothermal cluster models. As a first step towards more realistic modelling of GCs, we built a differentiable, accurate emulator of the lowered isothermal distribution function using interpolation. The reliable gradient information provided by the emulator allows the use of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to sample large Bayesian models with hundreds of parameters, thereby enabling inference on hierarchical models. We explore the use of hierarchical Bayesian modelling to address several issues encountered in observations of GC including an unknown GC center, incomplete data, and measurement errors. Our approach not only avoids the common technique of radial binning but also incorporates the aforementioned uncertainties in a robust and statistically consistent way. Through demonstrating the reliability of our hierarchical Bayesian model on simulations, our work lays out the foundation for more realistic and complex modelling of real GC data.

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Zephyr : Stitching Heterogeneous Training Data with Normalizing Flows for Photometric Redshift Inference

We present zephyr, a novel method that integrates cutting-edge normalizing flow techniques into a mixture density estimation framework, enabling the effective use of heterogeneous training data for photometric redshift inference. Compared to previous methods, zephyr demonstrates enhanced robustness for both point estimation and distribution reconstruction by leveraging normalizing flows for density estimation and incorporating careful uncertainty quantification. Moreover, zephyr offers unique interpretability by explicitly disentangling contributions from multi-source training data, which can facilitate future weak lensing analysis by providing an additional quality assessment. As probabilistic generative deep learning techniques gain increasing prominence in astronomy, zephyr should become an inspiration for handling heterogeneous training data while remaining interpretable and robustly accounting for observational uncertainties.

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The HERBAL model: A hierarchical errors-in-variables Bayesian lognormal hurdle model for galactic globular cluster populations

Galaxy stellar mass is known to be monotonically related to the size of the galaxy's globular cluster (GC) population for Milky Way sized and larger galaxies. However, the relation becomes ambiguous for dwarf galaxies, where there is some evidence for a downturn in GC population size at low galaxy masses. Smaller dwarfs are increasingly likely to have no GCs, and these zeros cannot be easily incorporated into linear models. We introduce the Hierarchical ERrors-in-variables Bayesian lognormAL hurdle (HERBAL) model to represent the relationship between dwarf galaxies and their GC populations, and apply it to the sample of Local Group galaxies where the luminosity range coverage is maximal. This bimodal model accurately represents the two populations of dwarf galaxies: those that have GCs and those that do not. Our model thoroughly accounts for all uncertainties, including measurement uncertainty, uncertainty in luminosity to stellar mass conversions, and intrinsic scatter. The hierarchical nature of our Bayesian model also allows us to estimate galaxy masses and individual mass-to-light ratios from luminosity data within the model. We find that 50% of galaxies are expected to host globular cluster populations at a stellar mass of $\log_{10}(M_*)=6.996$, and that the expected mass of GC populations remains linear down to the smallest galaxies. Our hierarchical model recovers an accurate estimate of the Milky Way stellar mass. Under our assumed error model, we find a non-zero intrinsic scatter of $0.59_{-0.21}^{+0.30}$ (95% credible interval) that should be accounted for in future models.

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Dynamical masses across the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram

We infer the dynamical masses of stars across the Hertzsprung-Russell (H-R) diagram using wide binaries from the Gaia survey. Gaia's high-precision astrometry measures the wide binaries' orbital motion, which contains the mass information. Using wide binaries as the training sample, we measure the mass of stars across the two-dimensional H-R diagram using the combination of statistical inference and neural networks. Our results provide the dynamical mass measurements for main-sequence stars from 0.1 to 2 M$_\odot$, unresolved binaries and unresolved triples on the main sequence, and the mean masses of giants and white dwarfs. Two regions in the H-R diagram show interesting behaviors in mass, where one of them is pre-main-sequence stars, and the other one may be related to close compact object companions like M dwarf-white dwarf binaries. These mass measurements depend solely on Newtonian dynamics, providing independent constraints on stellar evolutionary models and the occurrence rate of compact objects.

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A Novel Application of Conditional Normalizing Flows: Stellar Age Inference with Gyrochronology

Stellar ages are critical building blocks of evolutionary models, but challenging to measure for low mass main sequence stars. An unexplored solution in this regime is the application of probabilistic machine learning methods to gyrochronology, a stellar dating technique that is uniquely well suited for these stars. While accurate analytical gyrochronological models have proven challenging to develop, here we apply conditional normalizing flows to photometric data from open star clusters, and demonstrate that a data-driven approach can constrain gyrochronological ages with a precision comparable to other standard techniques. We evaluate the flow results in the context of a Bayesian framework, and show that our inferred ages recover literature values well. This work demonstrates the potential of a probabilistic data-driven solution to widen the applicability of gyrochronological stellar dating.

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Closing the stellar labels gap: An unsupervised, generative model for $\textit{Gaia}$ BP/RP spectra

The recent release of 220+ million BP/RP spectra in $\textit{Gaia}$ DR3 presents an opportunity to apply deep learning models to an unprecedented number of stellar spectra, at extremely low-resolution. The BP/RP dataset is so massive that no previous spectroscopic survey can provide enough stellar labels to cover the BP/RP parameter space. We present an unsupervised, deep, generative model for BP/RP spectra: a $\textit{scatter}$ variational auto-encoder. We design a non-traditional variational auto-encoder which is capable of modeling both $(i)$ BP/RP coefficients and $(ii)$ intrinsic scatter. Our model learns a latent space from which to generate BP/RP spectra (scatter) directly from the data itself without requiring any stellar labels. We demonstrate that our model accurately reproduces BP/RP spectra in regions of parameter space where supervised learning fails or cannot be implemented.

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SBI++: Flexible, Ultra-fast Likelihood-free Inference Customized for Astronomical Applications

Flagship near-future surveys targeting $10^8-10^9$ galaxies across cosmic time will soon reveal the processes of galaxy assembly in unprecedented resolution. This creates an immediate computational challenge on effective analyses of the full data-set. With simulation-based inference (SBI), it is possible to attain complex posterior distributions with the accuracy of traditional methods but with a $>10^4$ increase in speed. However, it comes with a major limitation. Standard SBI requires the simulated data to have identical characteristics to the observed data, which is often violated in astronomical surveys due to inhomogeneous coverage and/or fluctuating sky and telescope conditions. In this work, we present a complete SBI-based methodology, ``SBI$^{++}$,'' for treating out-of-distribution measurement errors and missing data. We show that out-of-distribution errors can be approximated by using standard SBI evaluations and that missing data can be marginalized over using SBI evaluations over nearby data realizations in the training set. In addition to the validation set, we apply SBI$^{++}$ to galaxies identified in extragalactic images acquired by the James Webb Space Telescope, and show that SBI$^{++}$ can infer photometric redshifts at least as accurately as traditional sampling methods and crucially, better than the original SBI algorithm using training data with a wide range of observational errors. SBI$^{++}$ retains the fast inference speed of $\sim$1 sec for objects in the observational training set distribution, and additionally permits parameter inference outside of the trained noise and data at $\sim$1 min per object. This expanded regime has broad implications for future applications to astronomical surveys.

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As Simple as Possible but No Simpler: Optimizing the Performance of Neural Net Emulators for Galaxy SED Fitting

Artificial neural network emulators have been demonstrated to be a very computationally efficient method to rapidly generate galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs), for parameter inference or otherwise. Using a highly flexible and fast mathematical structure, they can learn the nontrivial relationship between input galaxy parameters and output observables. However, they do so imperfectly, and small errors in flux prediction can yield large differences in recovered parameters. In this work, we investigate the relationship between an emulator's execution time, uncertainties, correlated errors, and ability to recover accurate posteriors. We show that emulators can recover consistent results to traditional fits, with precision of $25\!-\!40\%$ in posterior medians for stellar mass, stellar metallicity, star formation rate, and stellar age. We find that emulation uncertainties scale with an emulator's width $N$ as $\propto N^{-1}$ while execution time scales as $\propto N^2$, resulting in an inherent tradeoff between execution time and emulation uncertainties. We also find that emulators with uncertainties smaller than observational uncertaities are able to recover accurate posteriors for most parameters without a significant increase in catastrophic outliers. Furthermore, we demonstrate that small architectures can produce flux residuals that have significant correlations, which can create dangerous systematic errors in colors. Finally, we show that the distributions chosen for generating training sets can have a large effect on emulators' ability to accurately fit rare objects. Selecting the optimal architecture and training set for an emulator will minimize the computational requirements for fitting near-future large-scale galaxy surveys.

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Disentangling Stellar Age Estimates from Galactic Chemodynamical Evolution

Stellar ages are key for determining the formation history of the Milky Way, but are difficult to measure precisely. Furthermore, methods that use chemical abundances to infer ages may entangle the intrinsic evolution of stars with the chemodynamical evolution of the Galaxy. In this paper, we present a framework for making probabilistic predictions of stellar ages, and then quantify the contribution of both stellar evolution and Galactic chemical evolution to those predictions using SHAP values. We apply this interpretable prediction framework to both a simulated Milky Way sample containing stars in a variety of evolutionary stages and an APOGEE-mocked sample of red clump stars. We find that in the former case, stellar evolution is the dominant driver for age estimates, while in the latter case, the more restricted evolutionary information causes the model to proxy ages through the chemical evolution model. We show that as a result of the use of non-intrinsic Galactic chemical information, trends estimated with the predicted ages, such as the age-metallicity relation, can deviate from the truth.

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Practical Guidance for Bayesian Inference in Astronomy

In the last two decades, Bayesian inference has become commonplace in astronomy. At the same time, the choice of algorithms, terminology, notation, and interpretation of Bayesian inference varies from one sub-field of astronomy to the next, which can lead to confusion to both those learning and those familiar with Bayesian statistics. Moreover, the choice varies between the astronomy and statistics literature, too. In this paper, our goal is two-fold: (1) provide a reference that consolidates and clarifies terminology and notation across disciplines, and (2) outline practical guidance for Bayesian inference in astronomy. Highlighting both the astronomy and statistics literature, we cover topics such as notation, specification of the likelihood and prior distributions, inference using the posterior distribution, and posterior predictive checking. It is not our intention to introduce the entire field of Bayesian data analysis -- rather, we present a series of useful practices for astronomers who already have an understanding of the Bayesian "nuts and bolts" and wish to increase their expertise and extend their knowledge. Moreover, as the field of astrostatistics and astroinformatics continues to grow, we hope this paper will serve as both a helpful reference and as a jumping off point for deeper dives into the statistics and astrostatistics literature.

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A Ghost in Boötes: The Least Luminous Disrupted Dwarf Galaxy

We report the discovery of Specter, a disrupted ultrafaint dwarf galaxy revealed by the H3 Spectroscopic Survey. We detected this structure via a pair of comoving metal-poor stars at a distance of 12.5 kpc, and further characterized it with Gaia astrometry and follow-up spectroscopy. Specter is a $25^\circ \times 1^\circ$ stream of stars that is entirely invisible until strict kinematic cuts are applied to remove the Galactic foreground. The spectroscopic members suggest a stellar age $τ\gtrsim 12$ Gyr and a mean metallicity $\langle\text{[Fe/H]}\rangle = -1.84_{-0.18}^{+0.16}$, with a significant intrinsic metallicity dispersion $σ_{ \text{[Fe/H]}} = 0.37_{-0.13}^{+0.21}$. We therefore argue that Specter is the disrupted remnant of an ancient dwarf galaxy. With an integrated luminosity $M_{\text{V}} \approx -2.6$, Specter is by far the least-luminous dwarf galaxy stream known. We estimate that dozens of similar streams are lurking below the detection threshold of current search techniques, and conclude that spectroscopic surveys offer a novel means to identify extremely low surface brightness structures.

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Cool, Luminous, and Highly Variable Stars in the Magellanic Clouds. II: Spectroscopic and Environmental Analysis of Thorne-Żytkow Object and Super-AGB Star Candidates

In previous work we identified a population of 38 cool and luminous variable stars in the Magellanic Clouds and examined 11 in detail in order to classify them as either Thorne-Żytkow Objects (TŻOs, red supergiants with a neutron star cores) or super-AGB stars (the most massive stars that will not undergo core collapse). This population includes HV\,2112, a peculiar star previously considered in other works to be either a TŻO or high-mass AGB star. Here we continue this investigation, using the kinematic and radio environments and local star formation history of these stars to place constraints on the age of the progenitor systems and the presence of past supernovae. These stars are not associated with regions of recent star formation, and we find no evidence of past supernovae at their locations. Finally, we also assess the presence of heavy elements and lithium in their spectra compared to red supergiants. We find strong absorption in Li and s-process elements compared to RSGs in most of the sample, consistent with super-AGB nucleosynthesis, while HV\,2112 shows additional strong lines associated with TŻO nucleosynthesis. Coupled with our previous mass estimates, the results are consistent with the stars being massive (~4-6.5M$_{\odot}$) or super-AGB (~6.5-12M$_{\odot}$) stars in the thermally pulsing phase, providing crucial observations of the transition between low- and high-mass stellar populations. HV\,2112 is more ambiguous; it could either be a maximally massive sAGB star, or a TŻO if the minimum mass for stability extends down to <13 M$_\odot$.

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Searching for the extra-tidal stars of globular clusters using high-dimensional analysis and a core particle spray code

Three-body interactions can eject stars from the core of a globular cluster, causing them to enter the Galactic halo as extra-tidal stars. While finding extra-tidal stars is imperative for understanding cluster evolution, connecting isolated extra-tidal field stars back to their birth cluster is extremely difficult. In this work, we present a new methodology consisting of high-dimensional data analysis and a particle spray code to identify extra-tidal stars of any Galactic globular cluster using M3 as a case study. Using the t-Stochastic Neighbour Embedding (t-SNE) and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) machine learning dimensionality reduction algorithms, we first identify a set of 103 extra-tidal candidates in the APOGEE DR17 data catalogue with chemical abundances similar to M3 stars. To confirm each candidate's extra-tidal nature, we introduce corespray - a new Python-based three-body particle spray code that simulates extra-tidal stars for any Galactic globular cluster. Using Gaia EDR3 proper motions and APOGEE DR17 radial velocities, we apply multivariate Gaussian modelling and an extreme deconvolution to identify the extra-tidal candidates that are more likely to be associated with a distribution of corespray-simulated M3 extra-tidal stars than the field. Through these methods, we identify 10 new high-probability extra-tidal stars produced via three-body interactions in M3. We also explore whether any of our extra-tidal candidates are consistent with being ejected from M3 through different dynamical processes. Future applications of corespray will yield better understandings of core dynamics, star formation histories and binary fractions in globular clusters.

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