arXiv subjects

Joshua T. Vogelstein

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua T. Vogelstein.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Optimal control of the future via prospective learning with control

Optimal control of the future is the next frontier for AI. Current approaches to this problem are typically rooted in reinforcement learning (RL). RL is mathematically distinct from supervised learning, which has been the main workhorse for the recent achievements in AI. Moreover, RL typically operates in a stationary environment with episodic resets, limiting its utility. Here, we extend supervised learning to address learning to control in non-stationary, reset-free environments. Using this framework, called ''Prospective Learning with Control'' (PLuC), we prove that under certain fairly general assumptions, empirical risk minimization (ERM) asymptotically achieves the Bayes optimal policy. We then consider a specific instance of prospective learning with control: foraging, a canonical task relevant to both natural and artificial agents. We illustrate that modern RL algorithms, which assume stationarity, struggle in these non-stationary reset-free environments. Even with time-aware modifications, they converge orders of magnitude slower than our prospective foraging agents on a simple 1-D foraging benchmark. Code is available at: https://github.com/neurodata/procontrol.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Compiling molecular ultrastructure into neural dynamics

High-resolution brain imaging can now capture not just synapse locations but their molecular composition, with the cost of such mapping falling exponentially. Yet such ultrastructural data has so far told us little about local neuronal physiology - specifically, the parameters (e.g., synaptic efficacies, local conductances) that govern neural dynamics. We propose to translate molecularly annotated ultrastructure into physiology, introducing the concept of an ultrastructure-to-dynamics compiler: a learned mapping from molecularly annotated ultrastructure to simulator-ready, uncertainty-aware physiological parameters. The requirement is paired training data, with jointly acquired ultrastructure from imaging, and dynamical responses to perturbations from physiological experiments. With this data we can train models that predict local physiology directly from structure. Such a compiler would support biophysical simulations by turning anatomical maps into models of circuit dynamics, shifting structure-to-function from a descriptive program to a predictive one and opening routes to understanding neural computation and forecasting intervention effects.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2026

Vectorized Adaptive Histograms for Sparse Oblique Forests

Classification using sparse oblique random forests provides guarantees on uncertainty and confidence while controlling for specific error types. However, they use more data and more compute than other tree ensembles because they create deep trees and need to sort or histogram linear combinations of data at runtime. We provide a method for dynamically switching between histograms and sorting to find the best split. We further optimize histogram construction using vector intrinsics. Evaluating this on large datasets, our optimizations speedup training by 1.7-2.5x compared to existing oblique forests and 1.5-2x compared to standard random forests. We also provide a GPU and hybrid CPU-GPU implementation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

AutoGMM: Automatic Gaussian Mixture Modeling in Python

The exponential growth of complex data demands fully automatic clustering. Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) provide uncertainty-aware grouping but often require expertise to specify hyperparameters, e.g., component count and covariance structure. While mclust (R) automates this via Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Python lacks a comparable tool. We introduce AutoGMM, an open-source Python package automating GMM via strategic initialization using an agglomerative Mahalanobis heuristic, and parallelized model selection by information criteria. AutoGMM is a drop-in tool that yields strong out-of-the-box performance on classic benchmarks, targeted stress tests, and two real datasets, with favorable runtime scaling. The code is available at https://github.com/neurodata/AutoGMM with tests and reproducible workflows.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Simple Lifelong Learning Machines

In lifelong learning, data are used to improve performance not only on the present task, but also on past and future (unencountered) tasks. While typical transfer learning algorithms can improve performance on future tasks, their performance on prior tasks degrades upon learning new tasks (called forgetting). Many recent approaches for continual or lifelong learning have attempted to maintain performance on old tasks given new tasks. But striving to avoid forgetting sets the goal unnecessarily low. The goal of lifelong learning should be to use data to improve performance on both future tasks (forward transfer) and past tasks (backward transfer). In this paper, we show that a simple approach -- representation ensembling -- demonstrates both forward and backward transfer in a variety of simulated and benchmark data scenarios, including tabular, vision (CIFAR-100, 5-dataset, Split Mini-Imagenet, and Food1k), and speech (spoken digit), in contrast to various reference algorithms, which typically failed to transfer either forward or backward, or both. Moreover, our proposed approach can flexibly operate with or without a computational budget.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Biological Processing Units: Leveraging an Insect Connectome to Pioneer Biofidelic Neural Architectures

The complete connectome of the Drosophila larva brain offers a unique opportunity to investigate whether biologically evolved circuits can support artificial intelligence. We convert this wiring diagram into a Biological Processing Unit (BPU), a fixed recurrent network derived directly from synaptic connectivity. Despite its modest size 3,000 neurons and 65,000 weights between them), the unmodified BPU achieves 98% accuracy on MNIST and 58% on CIFAR-10, surpassing size-matched MLPs. Scaling the BPU via structured connectome expansions further improves CIFAR-10 performance, while modality-specific ablations reveal the uneven contributions of different sensory subsystems. On the ChessBench dataset, a lightweight GNN-BPU model trained on only 10,000 games achieves 60% move accuracy, nearly 10x better than any size transformer. Moreover, CNN-BPU models with ~2M parameters outperform parameter-matched Transformers, and with a depth-6 minimax search at inference, reach 91.7% accuracy, exceeding even a 9M-parameter Transformer baseline. These results demonstrate the potential of biofidelic neural architectures to support complex cognitive tasks and motivate scaling to larger and more intelligent connectomes in future work.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2025

Prospective Learning in Retrospect

In most real-world applications of artificial intelligence, the distributions of the data and the goals of the learners tend to change over time. The Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning framework, which underpins most machine learning algorithms, fails to account for dynamic data distributions and evolving objectives, often resulting in suboptimal performance. Prospective learning is a recently introduced mathematical framework that overcomes some of these limitations. We build on this framework to present preliminary results that improve the algorithm and numerical results, and extend prospective learning to sequential decision-making scenarios, specifically foraging. Code is available at: https://github.com/neurodata/prolearn2.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Extremely Simple Streaming Forest

Decision forests, including random forests and gradient boosting trees, remain the leading machine learning methods for many real-world data problems, especially on tabular data. However, most of the current implementations only operate in batch mode, and therefore cannot incrementally update when more data arrive. Several previous works developed streaming trees and ensembles to overcome this limitation. Nonetheless, we found that those state-of-the-art algorithms suffer from a number of drawbacks, including low accuracy on some problems and high memory usage on others. We therefore developed an extremely simple extension of decision trees: given new data, simply update existing trees by continuing to grow them, and replace some old trees with new ones to control the total number of trees. In a benchmark suite containing 72 classification problems (the OpenML-CC18 data suite), we illustrate that our approach, $\textit{Extremely Simple Streaming Forest}$ (XForest), does not suffer from either of the aforementioned limitations. On those datasets, we also demonstrate that our approach often performs as well as, and sometimes even better than, conventional batch decision forest algorithms. With a $\textit{zero-added-node}$ approach, XForest-Zero, we also further extend existing splits to new tasks, and this very efficient method only requires inference time. Thus, XForests establish a simple standard for streaming trees and forests that could readily be applied to many real-world problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Simple Calibration via Geodesic Kernels

Deep discriminative approaches, such as decision forests and deep neural networks, have recently found applications in many important real-world scenarios. However, deploying these learning algorithms in safety-critical applications raises concerns, particularly when it comes to ensuring calibration for both in-distribution and out-of-distribution regions. Many popular methods for in-distribution (ID) calibration, such as isotonic and Platt's sigmoidal regression, exhibit adequate ID calibration performance. However, these methods are not calibrated for the entire feature space, leading to overconfidence in the out-of-distribution (OOD) region. Existing OOD calibration methods generally exhibit poor ID calibration. In this paper, we jointly address the ID and OOD problems. We leveraged the fact that deep models learn to partition feature space into a union of polytopes, that is, flat-sided geometric objects. We introduce a geodesic distance to measure the distance between these polytopes and further distinguish samples within the same polytope using a Gaussian kernel. Our experiments on both tabular and vision benchmarks show that the proposed approaches, namely Kernel Density Forest (KDF) and Kernel Density Network (KDN), obtain well-calibrated posteriors for both ID and OOD samples, while mostly preserving the classification accuracy and extrapolating beyond the training data to handle OOD inputs appropriately.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Multiscale Comparative Connectomics

The connectome, a map of the structural and/or functional connections in the brain, provides a complex representation of the neurobiological phenotypes on which it supervenes. This information-rich data modality has the potential to transform our understanding of the relationship between patterns in brain connectivity and neurological processes, disorders, and diseases. However, existing computational techniques used to analyze connectomes are oftentimes insufficient for interrogating multi-subject connectomics datasets: many current methods are either solely designed to analyze single connectomes or leverage heuristic graph statistics that are unable to capture the complete topology of multiscale connections between brain regions. To enable more rigorous connectomics analysis, we introduce a set of robust and interpretable effect size measures motivated by recent theoretical advances in random graph models. These measures facilitate simultaneous analysis of multiple connectomes across different scales of network topology, enabling the robust and reproducible discovery of hierarchical brain structures that vary in relation to phenotypic profiles. In addition to explaining the theoretical foundations and guarantees of our algorithms, we demonstrate their superiority over current state-of-the-art connectomics methods through extensive simulation studies and real-data experiments. Using a set of high-resolution connectomes obtained from genetically distinct mouse strains (including the BTBR mouse -- a standard model of autism -- and three behavioral wild-types), we illustrate how our methods successfully uncover latent information in multi-subject connectomics data and yield valuable insights into the connective correlates of neurological phenotypes that other methods do not capture. The data and code necessary to reproduce our analyses are available at https://github.com/neurodata/MCC.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2024

Learning Interpretable Characteristic Kernels via Decision Forests

Decision forests are widely used for classification and regression tasks. A lesser known property of tree-based methods is that one can construct a proximity matrix from the tree(s), and these proximity matrices are induced kernels. While there has been extensive research on the applications and properties of kernels, there is relatively little research on kernels induced by decision forests. We construct Kernel Mean Embedding Random Forests (KMERF), which induce kernels from random trees and/or forests using leaf-node proximity. We introduce the notion of an asymptotically characteristic kernel, and prove that KMERF kernels are asymptotically characteristic for both discrete and continuous data. Because KMERF is data-adaptive, we suspected it would outperform kernels selected a priori on finite sample data. We illustrate that KMERF nearly dominates current state-of-the-art kernel-based tests across a diverse range of high-dimensional two-sample and independence testing settings. Furthermore, our forest-based approach is interpretable, and provides feature importance metrics that readily distinguish important dimensions, unlike other high-dimensional non-parametric testing procedures. Hence, this work demonstrates the decision forest-based kernel can be more powerful and more interpretable than existing methods, flying in the face of conventional wisdom of the trade-off between the two.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Universally Consistent K-Sample Tests via Dependence Measures

The K-sample testing problem involves determining whether K groups of data points are each drawn from the same distribution. Analysis of variance is arguably the most classical method to test mean differences, along with several recent methods to test distributional differences. In this paper, we demonstrate the existence of a transformation that allows K-sample testing to be carried out using any dependence measure. Consequently, universally consistent K-sample testing can be achieved using a universally consistent dependence measure, such as distance correlation and the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion. This enables a wide range of dependence measures to be easily applied to K-sample testing.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

hyppo: A Multivariate Hypothesis Testing Python Package

We introduce hyppo, a unified library for performing multivariate hypothesis testing, including independence, two-sample, and k-sample testing. While many multivariate independence tests have R packages available, the interfaces are inconsistent and most are not available in Python. hyppo includes many state of the art multivariate testing procedures. The package is easy-to-use and is flexible enough to enable future extensions. The documentation and all releases are available at https://hyppo.neurodata.io.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2024

Statistical Analysis of Data Repeatability Measures

The advent of modern data collection and processing techniques has seen the size, scale, and complexity of data grow exponentially. A seminal step in leveraging these rich datasets for downstream inference is understanding the characteristics of the data which are repeatable -- the aspects of the data that are able to be identified under a duplicated analysis. Conflictingly, the utility of traditional repeatability measures, such as the intraclass correlation coefficient, under these settings is limited. In recent work, novel data repeatability measures have been introduced in the context where a set of subjects are measured twice or more, including: fingerprinting, rank sums, and generalizations of the intraclass correlation coefficient. However, the relationships between, and the best practices among these measures remains largely unknown. In this manuscript, we formalize a novel repeatability measure, discriminability. We show that it is deterministically linked with the correlation coefficient under univariate random effect models, and has desired property of optimal accuracy for inferential tasks using multivariate measurements. Additionally, we overview and systematically compare repeatability statistics using both theoretical results and simulations. We show that the rank sum statistic is deterministically linked to a consistent estimator of discriminability. The power of permutation tests derived from these measures are compared numerically under Gaussian and non-Gaussian settings, with and without simulated batch effects. Motivated by both theoretical and empirical results, we provide methodological recommendations for each benchmark setting to serve as a resource for future analyses. We believe these recommendations will play an important role towards improving repeatability in fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging, genomics, pharmacology, and more.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Multiple Network Embedding for Anomaly Detection in Time Series of Graphs

This paper considers the graph signal processing problem of anomaly detection in time series of graphs. We examine two related, complementary inference tasks: the detection of anomalous graphs within a time series, and the detection of temporally anomalous vertices. We approach these tasks via the adaptation of statistically principled methods for joint graph inference, specifically \emph{multiple adjacency spectral embedding} (MASE). We demonstrate that our method is effective for our inference tasks. Moreover, we assess the performance of our method in terms of the underlying nature of detectable anomalies. We further provide the theoretical justification for our method and insight into its use. Applied to the Enron communication graph, a large-scale commercial search engine time series of graphs, and a larval Drosophila connectome data, our approaches demonstrate their applicability and identify the anomalous vertices beyond just large degree change.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Community Correlations and Testing Independence Between Binary Graphs

Graph data has a unique structure that deviates from standard data assumptions, often necessitating modifications to existing methods or the development of new ones to ensure valid statistical analysis. In this paper, we explore the notion of correlation and dependence between two binary graphs. Given vertex communities, we propose community correlations to measure the edge association, which equals zero if and only if the two graphs are conditionally independent within a specific pair of communities. The set of community correlations naturally leads to the maximum community correlation, indicating conditional independence on all possible pairs of communities, and to the overall graph correlation, which equals zero if and only if the two binary graphs are unconditionally independent. We then compute the sample community correlations via graph encoder embedding, proving they converge to their respective population versions, and derive the asymptotic null distribution to enable a fast, valid, and consistent test for conditional or unconditional independence between two binary graphs. The theoretical results are validated through comprehensive simulations, and we provide two real-data examples: one using Enron email networks and another using mouse connectome graphs, to demonstrate the utility of the proposed correlation measures.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Discovering the Signal Subgraph: An Iterative Screening Approach on Graphs

Supervised learning on graphs is a challenging task due to the high dimensionality and inherent structural dependencies in the data, where each edge depends on a pair of vertices. Existing conventional methods are designed for standard Euclidean data and do not account for the structural information inherent in graphs. In this paper, we propose an iterative vertex screening method to achieve dimension reduction across multiple graph datasets with matched vertex sets and associated graph attributes. Our method aims to identify a signal subgraph to provide a more concise representation of the full graphs, potentially benefiting subsequent vertex classification tasks. The method screens the rows and columns of the adjacency matrix concurrently and stops when the resulting distance correlation is maximized. We establish the theoretical foundation of our method by proving that it estimates the true signal subgraph with high probability. Additionally, we establish the convergence rate of classification error under the Erdos-Renyi random graph model and prove that the subsequent classification can be asymptotically optimal, outperforming the entire graph under high-dimensional conditions. Our method is evaluated on various simulated datasets and real-world human and murine graphs derived from functional and structural magnetic resonance images. The results demonstrate its excellent performance in estimating the ground-truth signal subgraph and achieving superior classification accuracy.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Towards a theory of out-of-distribution learning

Learning is a process wherein a learning agent enhances its performance through exposure of experience or data. Throughout this journey, the agent may encounter diverse learning environments. For example, data may be presented to the leaner all at once, in multiple batches, or sequentially. Furthermore, the distribution of each data sample could be either identical and independent (iid) or non-iid. Additionally, there may exist computational and space constraints for the deployment of the learning algorithms. The complexity of a learning task can vary significantly, depending on the learning setup and the constraints imposed upon it. However, it is worth noting that the current literature lacks formal definitions for many of the in-distribution and out-of-distribution learning paradigms. Establishing proper and universally agreed-upon definitions for these learning setups is essential for thoroughly exploring the evolution of ideas across different learning scenarios and deriving generalized mathematical bounds for these learners. In this paper, we aim to address this issue by proposing a chronological approach to defining different learning tasks using the provably approximately correct (PAC) learning framework. We will start with in-distribution learning and progress to recently proposed lifelong or continual learning. We employ consistent terminology and notation to demonstrate how each of these learning frameworks represents a specific instance of a broader, more generalized concept of learnability. Our hope is that this work will inspire a universally agreed-upon approach to quantifying different types of learning, fostering greater understanding and progress in the field.

stat.ML↗