arXiv subjects

Joss Bland-Hawthorn

Publications and source records attributed to Joss Bland-Hawthorn.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Kinematics of Antlia 2 and Crater 2 from The Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S5)

We present new spectroscopic observations of the diffuse Milky Way satellite galaxies Antlia 2 and Crater 2, taken as part of the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S5). The new observations approximately double the number of confirmed member stars in each galaxy and more than double the spatial extent of spectroscopic observations in Antlia 2. A full kinematic analysis, including Gaia EDR3 proper motions, detects a clear velocity gradient in Antlia 2 and a tentative velocity gradient in Crater 2. The velocity gradient magnitudes and directions are consistent with particle stream simulations of tidal disruption. Furthermore, the orbit and kinematics of Antlia 2 require a model that includes the reflex motion of the Milky Way induced by the Large Magellanic Cloud. We also find that Antlia 2's metallicity was previously overestimated, so it lies on the empirical luminosity-metallicity relation and is likely only now experiencing substantial stellar mass loss. Current dynamical models of Antlia 2 require it to have lost over 90% of its stars to tides, in tension with the low stellar mass loss implied by the updated metallicity. Overall, the new kinematic measurements support a tidal disruption scenario for the origin of these large and extended dwarf spheroidal galaxies.

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arXiv2021

The GALAH+ Survey: A New Library of Observed Stellar Spectra Improves Radial Velocities and Hints at Motions within M67

GALAH+ is a magnitude-limited survey of high resolution stellar spectra obtained by the HERMES spectrograph at the Australian Astronomical Observatory. Its third data release provides reduced spectra with new derivations of stellar parameters and abundances of 30 chemical elements for 584,015 dwarfs and giants, 88% of them in the Gaia magnitude range 11 < G < 14. Here we use these improved values of stellar parameters to build a library of observed spectra which is useful to study variations of individual spectral lines with stellar parameters. This and other improvements are used to derive radial velocities with uncertainties which are generally within 0.1 km/s or ~25% smaller than in the previous release. Median differences in radial velocities measured here and by the Gaia DR2 or APOGEE DR16 surveys are smaller than 30 m/s, a larger offset is present only for Gaia measurements of giant stars. We identify 4483 stars with intrinsically variable velocities and 225 stars for which the velocity stays constant over >=3 visits spanning more than a year. The combination of radial velocities from GALAH+ with distances and sky plane motions from Gaia enables studies of dynamics within streams and clusters. For example, we estimate that the open cluster M67 has a total mass of ~3300 Msun and its outer parts seem to be expanding, though astrometry with a larger time-span than currently available from Gaia eDR3 is needed to judge if the latter result is real.

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arXiv2021

The SAMI Galaxy Survey: Mass and Environment as Independent Drivers of Galaxy Dynamics

The kinematic morphology-density relation of galaxies is normally attributed to a changing distribution of galaxy stellar masses with the local environment. However, earlier studies were largely focused on slow rotators; the dynamical properties of the overall population in relation to environment have received less attention. We use the SAMI Galaxy Survey to investigate the dynamical properties of $\sim$1800 early and late-type galaxies with $\log(M_*/M_{\odot})>9.5$ as a function of mean environmental overdensity ($Σ_{5}$) and their rank within a group or cluster. By classifying galaxies into fast and slow rotators, at fixed stellar mass above $\log(M_*/M_{\odot})>10.5$, we detect a higher fraction ($\sim3.4σ$) of slow rotators for group and cluster centrals and satellites as compared to isolated-central galaxies. Focusing on the fast-rotator population, we also detect a significant correlation between galaxy kinematics and their stellar mass as well as the environment they are in. Specifically, by using inclination-corrected or intrinsic $λ_{R_e}$ values, we find that, at fixed mass, satellite galaxies on average have the lowest $λ_{\,R_e,intr}$, isolated-central galaxies have the highest $λ_{\,R_e,intr}$, and group and cluster centrals lie in between. Similarly, galaxies in high-density environments have lower mean $λ_{\,R_e,intr}$ values as compared to galaxies at low environmental density. However, at fixed $Σ_{5}$, the mean $λ_{\,R_e,intr}$ differences for low and high-mass galaxies are of similar magnitude as when varying $Σ_{5}$ {($Δλ_{\,R_e,intr} \sim 0.05$. Our results demonstrate that after stellar mass, environment plays a significant role in the creation of slow rotators, while for fast rotators we also detect an independent, albeit smaller, impact of mass and environment on their kinematic properties.

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arXiv2021

Signature of a massive rotating metal-poor star imprinted in the Phoenix stellar stream

The Phoenix stellar stream has a low intrinsic dispersion in velocity and metallicity that implies the progenitor was probably a low mass globular cluster. In this work we use Magellan/MIKE high-dispersion spectroscopy of eight Phoenix stream red giants to confirm this scenario. In particular, we find negligible intrinsic scatter in metallicity ($σ(\mathrm{[Fe~II/H]}) = 0.04^{+0.11}_{-0.03}$) and a large peak-to-peak range in [Na/Fe] and [Al/Fe] abundance ratios, consistent with the light element abundance patterns seen in the most metal-poor globular clusters. However, unlike any other globular cluster, we also find an intrinsic spread in [Sr II/Fe] spanning $\sim$1 dex, while [Ba II/Fe] shows nearly no intrinsic spread ($σ(\mathrm{[Ba~II/H]}) = {0.03}^{+0.10}_{-0.02}$). This abundance signature is best interpreted as slow neutron capture element production from a massive fast-rotating metal-poor star ($15-20 \mathrm{M}_\odot$, $v_\mathrm{ini}/v_\mathrm{crit} = 0.4$, $[\mathrm{Fe/H}] = -3.8$). The low inferred cluster mass suggests the system would have been unable to retain supernovae ejecta, implying that any massive fast-rotating metal-poor star that enriched the interstellar medium must have formed and evolved before the globular cluster formed. Neutron capture element production from asymptotic giant branch stars or magneto-rotational instabilities in core-collapse supernovae provide poor fits to the observations. We also report one Phoenix stream star to be a lithium-rich giant ($A(\mathrm{Li}) = 3.1 \pm 0.1$). At $[\mathrm{Fe/H}] = -2.93$ it is among the most metal-poor lithium-rich giants known.

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arXiv2021

The SAMI Galaxy Survey: Trends in [α/Fe] as a Function of Morphology and Environment

We present a new set of index-based measurements of [$α$/Fe] for a sample of 2093 galaxies in the SAMI Galaxy Survey. Following earlier work, we fit a global relation between [$α$/Fe] and the galaxy velocity dispersion $σ$ for red sequence galaxies, [$α$/Fe]=(0.378$\pm$0.009)log($σ$/100)+(0.155$\pm$0.003). We observe a correlation between the residuals and the local environmental surface density, whereas no such relation exists for blue cloud galaxies. In the full sample, we find that elliptical galaxies in high-density environments are $α$-enhanced by up to 0.057$\pm$0.014 dex at velocity dispersions $σ$<100 km/s, compared with those in low-density environments. This $α$-enhancement is morphology-dependent, with the offset decreasing along the Hubble sequence towards spirals, which have an offset of 0.019$\pm$0.014 dex. At low velocity dispersion and controlling for morphology, we estimate that star formation in high-density environments is truncated $\sim1$ Gyr earlier than in low-density environments. For elliptical galaxies only, we find support for a parabolic relationship between [$α$/Fe] and $σ$, with an environmental $α$-enhancement of at least 0.03 dex. This suggests strong contributions from both environment and mass-based quenching mechanisms. However, there is no evidence for this behaviour in later morphological types.

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arXiv2021

Measuring the Mass of the Large Magellanic Cloud with Stellar Streams Observed by ${S}^5$

Stellar streams are excellent probes of the underlying gravitational potential in which they evolve. In this work, we fit dynamical models to five streams in the Southern Galactic hemisphere, combining observations from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (${S}^5$), Gaia EDR3, and the Dark Energy Survey (DES), to measure the mass of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). With an ensemble of streams, we find a mass of the LMC ranging from 14 to $19 \times 10^{10}\ \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$, probed over a range of closest approach times and distances. With the most constraining stream (Orphan-Chenab), we measure an LMC mass of $18.8^{+ 3.5}_{- 4.0} \times 10^{10}\ \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$, probed at a closest approach time of 310 Myr and a closest approach distance of 25.4 kpc. This mass is compatible with previous measurements, showing that a consistent picture is emerging of the LMC's influence on structures in the Milky Way. Using this sample of streams, we find that the LMC's effect depends on the relative orientation of the stream and LMC at their point of closest approach. To better understand this, we present a simple model based on the impulse approximation and we show that the LMC's effect depends both on the magnitude of the velocity kick imparted to the stream and the direction of this kick.

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arXiv2021

The SAMI Galaxy Survey: a statistical approach to an optimal classification of stellar kinematics in galaxy surveys

Large galaxy samples from multi-object IFS surveys now allow for a statistical analysis of the z~0 galaxy population using resolved kinematics. However, the improvement in number statistics comes at a cost, with multi-object IFS survey more severely impacted by the effect of seeing and lower S/N. We present an analysis of ~1800 galaxies from the SAMI Galaxy Survey and investigate the spread and overlap in the kinematic distributions of the spin parameter proxy $λ_{Re}$ as a function of stellar mass and ellipticity. For SAMI data, the distributions of galaxies identified as regular and non-regular rotators with \textsc{kinemetry} show considerable overlap in the $λ_{Re}$-$\varepsilon_e$ diagram. In contrast, visually classified galaxies (obvious and non-obvious rotators) are better separated in $λ_{Re}$ space, with less overlap of both distributions. Then, we use a Bayesian mixture model to analyse the observed $λ_{Re}$-$\log(M_*/M_{\odot})$ distribution. Below $\log(M_{\star}/M_{\odot})\sim10.5$, a single beta distribution is sufficient to fit the complete $λ_{Re}$ distribution, whereas a second beta distribution is required above $\log(M_{\star}/M_{\odot})\sim10.5$ to account for a population of low-$λ_{Re}$ galaxies. While the Bayesian mixture model presents the cleanest separation of the two kinematic populations, we find the unique information provided by visual classification of kinematic maps should not be disregarded in future studies. Applied to mock-observations from different cosmological simulations, the mixture model also predicts bimodal $λ_{Re}$ distributions, albeit with different positions of the $λ_{Re}$ peaks. Our analysis validates the conclusions from previous smaller IFS surveys, but also demonstrates the importance of using kinematic selection criteria that are dictated by the quality of the observed or simulated data.

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arXiv2021

The GALAH Survey: Accreted stars also inhabit the Spite Plateau

The ESA Gaia astrometric mission has enabled the remarkable discovery that a large fraction of the stars near the Solar neighbourhood appear to be debris from a single in-falling system, the so-called Gaia-Enceladus-Sausage (GSE). One exciting feature of this result is that it gives astronomers for the first time a large sample of easily observable unevolved stars that formed in an extra-Galactic environment, which can be compared to stars that formed within our Milky Way. Here we use these stars to investigate the "Spite Plateau" -- the near-constant lithium abundance observed in metal-poor dwarf stars across a wide range of metallicities (-3<[Fe/H]<-1). In particular our aim is to test whether the stars that formed in the GSE show a different Spite Plateau to other Milky Way stars that inhabit the disk and halo. Individual galaxies could have different Spite Plateaus -- e.g., the ISM could be more depleted in lithium in a lower galactic mass system due to it having a smaller reservoir of gas. We identified 76 GSE dwarf stars observed and analyzed by the GALactic Archeology with HERMES (GALAH) survey as part of its Third Data Release. Orbital actions were used to select samples of Gaia-Enceladus stars, and comparison samples of halo and disk stars. We find that the Gaia-Enceladus stars show the same lithium abundance as other likely accreted stars and in situ Milky Way stars, strongly suggesting that the "lithium problem" is not a consequence of the formation environment. This result fits within the growing consensus that the Spite Plateau, and more generally the "cosmological lithium problem" -- the observed discrepancy between the amount of lithium in warm, metal-poor dwarf stars in our Galaxy, and the amount of lithium predicted to have been produced by Big Bang Nucleosynthesis -- is the result of lithium depletion processes within stars.

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arXiv2021

The SAMI Galaxy Survey: Detection of Environmental Dependence of Galaxy Spin in Observations and Simulations Using Marked Correlation Functions

The existence of a kinematic morphology-density relation remains uncertain, and instead stellar mass appears the more dominant driver of galaxy kinematics. We investigate the dependence of the stellar spin parameter proxy $λ_{R_e}$ on environment using a marked cross-correlation method with data from the SAMI Galaxy Survey. Our sample contains 710 galaxies with spatially resolved stellar velocity and velocity dispersion measurements. By utilising the highly complete spectroscopic data from the GAMA survey, we calculate marked cross-correlation functions for SAMI galaxies using a pair count estimator and marks based on stellar mass and $λ_{R_e}$. We detect an anti-correlation of stellar kinematics with environment at the 3.2$σ$ level, such that galaxies with low $λ_{R_e}$ values are preferably located in denser galaxy environments. However, a significant correlation between stellar mass and environment is also found (correlation at 2.4$σ$), as found in previous works. We compare these results to mock-observations from the cosmological EAGLE simulations, where we find a similar significant $λ_{R_e}$ anti-correlation with environment, and a mass and environment correlation. We demonstrate that the environmental correlation of $λ_{R_e}$ is not caused by the mass-environment relation. The significant relationship between $λ_{R_e}$ and environment remains when we exclude slow rotators. The signals in SAMI and EAGLE are strongest on small scales (10-100 kpc) as expected from galaxy interactions and mergers. Our work demonstrates that the technique of marked correlation functions is an effective tool for detecting the relationship between $λ_{R_e}$ and environment.

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arXiv2021

Seeking celestial Positronium with an OH-suppressed diffraction-limited spectrograph

Celestially, Positronium (Ps), has only been observed through gamma-ray emission produced by its annihilation. However, in its triplet state, a Ps atom has a mean lifetime long enough for electronic transitions to occur between quantum states. This produces a recombination spectrum observable in principle at near IR wavelengths, where angular resolution greatly exceeding that of the gamma-ray observations is possible. However, the background in the NIR is dominated by extremely bright atmospheric hydroxyl (OH) emission lines. In this paper we present the design of a diffraction-limited spectroscopic system using novel photonic components - a photonic lantern, OH Fiber Bragg Grating filters, and a photonic TIGER 2-dimensional pseudo-slit - to observe the Ps Balmer alpha line at 1.3122 microns for the first time.

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arXiv2021

An [$α$/Fe]-enhanced thick disk in a Milky Way Analogue

The Milky Way disk consists of two prominent components - a thick, alpha-rich, low-metallicity component and a thin, metal-rich, low-alpha component. External galaxies have been shown to contain thin and thick disk components, but whether distinct components in the [$α$/Fe]-[Z/H] plane exist in other Milky Way-like galaxies is not yet known. We present VLT-MUSE observations of UGC 10738, a nearby, edge-on Milky Way-like galaxy. We demonstrate through stellar population synthesis model fitting that UGC 10738 contains alpha-rich and alpha-poor stellar populations with similar spatial distributions to the same components in the Milky Way. We discuss how the finding that external galaxies also contain chemically distinct disk components may act as a significant constraint on the formation of the Milky Way's own thin and thick disk.

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arXiv2021

The GALAH survey: A census of lithium-rich giant stars

We investigate the properties of 1262 red giant stars with high photospheric abundances of lithium observed by the GALAH and \Ktwo-HERMES surveys, and discuss them in the context of proposed mechanisms for lithium enrichment and re-depletion in giant stars. We confirm that Li-rich giants are rare, making up only 1.2 per cent of our giant star sample. We use stellar parameters from the third public data release from the GALAH survey and a Bayesian isochrone analysis to divide the sample into first-ascent red giant branch and red clump stars, and confirm these classifications using asteroseismic data from \Ktwo. We find that red clump stars are 2.5 times as likely to be lithium-rich as red giant branch stars, in agreement with other recent work. The probability for a star to be lithium-rich is affected by a number of factors, though the causality in those correlations is not entirely clear. We show for the first time that primary and secondary red clump stars have distinctly different lithium enrichment patterns. The data set discussed here is large and heterogeneous in terms of evolutionary phase, metallicity, rotation rate and mass. We expect that if the various mechanisms that have been proposed for lithium enrichment in evolved stars are in fact active, they should all contribute to this sample of lithium-rich giants at some level.

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arXiv2021

The GALAH+ Survey: Third Data Release

The ensemble of chemical element abundance measurements for stars, along with precision distances and orbit properties, provides high-dimensional data to study the evolution of the Milky Way. With this third data release of the Galactic Archaeology with HERMES (GALAH) survey, we publish 678 423 spectra for 588 571 mostly nearby stars (81.2% of stars are within <2 kpc), observed with the HERMES spectrograph at the Anglo-Australian Telescope. This release (hereafter GALAH+ DR3) includes all observations from GALAH Phase 1 (bright, main, and faint survey, 70%), K2-HERMES (17%), TESS-HERMES (5%), and a subset of ancillary observations (8%) including the bulge and >75 stellar clusters. We derive stellar parameters $T_\text{eff}$, $\log g$, [Fe/H], $v_\text{mic}$, $v_\text{broad}$ & $v_\text{rad}$ using our modified version of the spectrum synthesis code Spectroscopy Made Easy (SME) and 1D MARCS model atmospheres. We break spectroscopic degeneracies in our spectrum analysis with astrometry from $Gaia$ DR2 and photometry from 2MASS. We report abundance ratios [X/Fe] for 30 different elements (11 of which are based on non-LTE computations) covering five nucleosynthetic pathways. We describe validations for accuracy and precision, flagging of peculiar stars/measurements and recommendations for using our results. Our catalogue comprises 65% dwarfs, 34% giants, and 1% other/unclassified stars. Based on unflagged chemical composition and age, we find 62% young low-$α$, 9% young high-$α$, 27% old high-$α$, and 2% stars with $\mathrm{[Fe/H]} \leq -1$. Based on kinematics, 4% are halo stars. Several Value-Added-Catalogues, including stellar ages and dynamics, updated after $Gaia$ eDR3, accompany this release and allow chrono-chemodynamic analyses, as we showcase.

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arXiv2021

The SAMI Galaxy Survey: stellar population and structural trends across the Fundamental Plane

We study the Fundamental Plane (FP) for a volume- and luminosity-limited sample of 560 early-type galaxies from the SAMI survey. Using r-band sizes and luminosities from new Multi-Gaussian Expansion (MGE) photometric measurements, and treating luminosity as the dependent variable, the FP has coefficients a=1.294$\pm$0.039, b= 0.912$\pm$0.025, and zero-point c= 7.067$\pm$0.078. We leverage the high signal-to-noise of SAMI integral field spectroscopy, to determine how structural and stellar-population observables affect the scatter about the FP. The FP residuals correlate most strongly (8$σ$ significance) with luminosity-weighted simple-stellar-population (SSP) age. In contrast, the structural observables surface mass density, rotation-to-dispersion ratio, Sérsic index and projected shape all show little or no significant correlation. We connect the FP residuals to the empirical relation between age (or stellar mass-to-light ratio $Υ_\star$) and surface mass density, the best predictor of SSP age amongst parameters based on FP observables. We show that the FP residuals (anti-)correlate with the residuals of the relation between surface density and $Υ_\star$. This correlation implies that part of the FP scatter is due to the broad age and $Υ_\star$ distribution at any given surface mass density. Using virial mass and $Υ_\star$ we construct a simulated FP and compare it to the observed FP. We find that, while the empirical relations between observed stellar population relations and FP observables are responsible for most (75%) of the FP scatter, on their own they do not explain the observed tilt of the FP away from the virial plane.

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arXiv2021

The GALAH Survey: No chemical evidence of an extragalactic origin for the Nyx stream

The results from the ESA Gaia astrometric mission and deep photometric surveys have revolutionized our knowledge of the Milky Way. There are many ongoing efforts to search these data for stellar substructure to find evidence of individual accretion events that built up the Milky Way and its halo. One of these newly identified features, called Nyx, was announced as an accreted stellar stream traveling in the plane of the disk. Using a combination of elemental abundances and stellar parameters from the GALAH and APOGEE surveys, we find that the abundances of the highest likelihood Nyx members are entirely consistent with membership of the thick disk, and inconsistent with a dwarf galaxy origin. We conclude that the postulated Nyx stream is most probably a high-velocity component of the Milky Way's thick disk. With the growing availability of large data sets including kinematics, stellar parameters, and detailed abundances, the probability of detecting chance associations increases, and hence new searches for substructure require confirmation across as many data dimensions as possible.

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arXiv2021

Broken into Pieces: ATLAS and Aliqa Uma as One Single Stream

We present the first spectroscopic measurements of the ATLAS and Aliqa Uma streams from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey ($S^5$), in combination with the photometric data from the Dark Energy Survey and astrometric data from $Gaia$. From the coherence of spectroscopic members in radial velocity and proper motion, we find out that these two systems are extremely likely to be one stream with discontinuity in morphology and density on the sky (the "kink" feature). We refer to this entire stream as the ATLAS-Aliqa Uma stream, or the AAU stream. We perform a comprehensive exploration of the effect of baryonic substructures and find that only an encounter with the Sagittarius dwarf $\sim 0.5$ Gyr ago can create a feature similar to the observed "kink". In addition, we also identify two gaps in the ATLAS component associated with the broadening in the stream width (the "broadening" feature). These gaps have likely been created by small mass perturbers, such as dark matter halos, as the AAU stream is the most distant cold stream known with severe variations in both the stream surface density and the stream track on the sky. With the stream track, stream distance and kinematic information, we determine the orbit of the AAU stream and find that it has been affected by the Large Magellanic Cloud, resulting in a misalignment between the proper motion and stream track. Together with the Orphan-Chenab Stream, AAU is the second stream pair that has been found to be a single stream separated into two segments by external perturbation.

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arXiv2021

Quantum memories and the double-slit experiment: implications for astronomical interferometry

Thomas Young's slit experiment lies at the heart of classical interference and quantum mechanics. Over the last fifty years, it has been shown that particles (e.g. photons, electrons, large molecules), even individual particles, generate an interference pattern at a distant screen after passage through a double slit, thereby demonstrating wave-particle duality. We revisit this famous experiment by replacing both slits with single-mode fibre inputs to two independent quantum memories that are capable of storing the incident electromagnetic field's amplitude and phase as a function of time. At a later time, the action is reversed: the quantum memories are read out in synchrony and the single-mode fibre outputs are allowed to interact consistent with the original observation. In contrast to any classical memory device, the write and read processes of a quantum memory are non-destructive and hence, preserve the photonic quantum states. In principle, with sufficiently long storage times and sufficiently high photonic storage capacity, quantum memories operating at widely separated telescopes can be brought together to achieve optical interferometry over arbitrarily long baselines.

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arXiv2021

Galactic seismology: the evolving "phase spiral" after the Sagittarius dwarf impact

In 2018, the ESA \Gaia\ satellite discovered a remarkable spiral pattern ("phase spiral") in the $z-V_z$ phase plane throughout the solar neighbourhood, where $z$ and $V_z$ are the displacement and velocity of a star perpendicular to the Galactic disc. In response to Binney \& Schönrich's analytic model of a disc-crossing satellite to explain the \Gaia\ data, we carry out a high-resolution, N-body simulation (N$\:\approx 10^8$ particles) of an impulsive mass ($2\times 10^{10}$ \Msun) that interacts with a cold stellar disc at a single transit point. The disc response is complex since the impulse triggers a superposition of two distinct bisymmetric ($m=2$) modes $-$ a density wave and a corrugated bending wave $-$ that wrap up at different rates. Stars in the {\it faster} density wave wrap up with time $T$ according to $ϕ_D(R,T)=(Ω_D(R) + Ω_{\rm o})\:T$ where $ϕ_D$ describes the spiral pattern and $Ω_D =Ω(R) -κ(R)/2$, where $κ$ is the epicyclic frequency. While the pattern speed $Ω_{\rm o}$ is small, it is non-zero. The {\it slower} bending wave wraps up according to $Ω_B\approxΩ_D/2$ producing a corrugated wave. The bunching effect of the density wave triggers the phase spiral as it rolls up and down on the bending wave ("rollercoaster" model). The phase spiral emerges slowly about $ΔT \approx 400$ Myr after impact. It appears to be a long-lived, disc-wide phenomenon that continues to evolve over most of the 2~Gyr simulation. Thus, given Sagittarius' (Sgr) low total mass today ($M_{\rm tot}\sim 3\times 10^8$ \Msun\ within 10 kpc diameter), we believe the phase spiral was excited by the disc-crossing dwarf some $1-2$ Gyr {\it before} the recent transit. For this to be true, Sgr must be losing mass at 0.5-1 dex per orbit loop.

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