arXiv subjects

Jost von Hardenberg

Publications and source records attributed to Jost von Hardenberg.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Interaction between vegetation and Snowball phases in the late Proterozoic Earth

Between 2.4 and 0.6 Gy ago, our planet underwent several episodes of global glaciations, including the Snowball Earth case that ended 635 My ago. Causes of this last Snowball event presumably included a decreased greenhouse gas concentration and high continental albedo, both associated with the passage of the super-continent Rodinia at equatorial latitudes. When large continental masses are in equatorial regions, silicate weathering is enhanced, leading to decreased atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the bare continental masses, which at the time hosted no vegetation, enhanced reflection of solar radiation. Since then, no other Snowball episodes were recorded. Here we numerically explore the climatic dynamics of a rocky planet for different values of solar output, continental configuration (current and Rodinia-like), CO2 concentration and continental albedo, simulating the effects of land vegetation. We found that for the solar input typical of 600-700 My ago (95% of the current value), the presence of bare continents with albedo 0.35 (granite) in the position estimated for Rodinia was sufficient to trigger a Snowball state for CO2 concentrations up to at least 1000 ppm. When bare continents are located in modern positions, Snowball could be triggered only for values of CO2 concentration below 400 ppm. At current solar input values, Snowball states appear only at or below 100 ppm. Thus, we found: a lower solar output is an essential component of the transition to Snowball; the presence of land vegetation is crucial and reduces the probability of entering a Snowball state; a low CO2 concentration was not needed for triggering a Snowball in bare Rodinia-like conditions and reduced solar output; current solar luminosity does not allow Snowball states, even for equatorial continents, unless continental albedo is that of granite and CO2 concentration is 100 ppm or less. [Abridged]

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Assessing the Climate and Habitability of Tidally Locked Rocky Exoplanets

Tidally locked exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars are prime targets in the search for habitable worlds, yet their complex climate dynamics challenge conventional models of habitability. We homogeneously estimated the liquid-water habitability of exoplanets with the highest up-to-date Earth-similarity index. We modified the climate model PLASIM to apply it to tidally locked exoplanets across a range of parameters. We systematically classified and compared potentially habitable exoplanets and selected among the ones featuring the highest Earth-similarity index in the conservative sample of the Habitable Wolds Catalog, both relative to each other and as a function of atmospheric pressure. Our analysis revealed three main climate regimes: Snowball, Hot, and Eyeball planets-the latter having a warm and habitable substellar region with T > 273 K and a localized hydrological cycle. Although surface temperature generally increases with pressure, Eyeball planet climates remain stable in a wide pressure range. Complex atmospheric dynamics govern the behavior of the climate, highlighting the need for detailed climate simulations to guide future observations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Global stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation: Edge state, long transients and boundary crisis under CO$_2$ forcing

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to possible critical thresholds remains difficult. To understand future Earth system stability, a global dynamical view is needed beyond the local stability analysis underlying classical early-warning methods. Using an intermediate-complexity climate model, we explore the stability landscape of the AMOC for different atmospheric CO$_2$ concentrations. We explicitly compute the edge state (or Melancholia state), a chaotic saddle on the basin boundary separating the strong and weak AMOC attractors found in the model. While being unstable, the edge state can govern the transient climate for centuries, supporting centennial AMOC oscillations driven by atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions in the North Atlantic. At increased CO$_2$ levels projected for the near future, we reveal a boundary crisis where the current AMOC attractor disappears by colliding with the edge state. Under crisis overshoot, long chaotic transients due to "ghost states" lead to diverging ensemble trajectories under time-varying forcing. Rooted in dynamical systems theory, our results offer an explanation of large ensemble variance and apparent "stochastic bifurcations" observed in earth system models under intermediate forcing scenarios.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2025

Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes

All climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but most models neglect increasing runoff from the Greenland ice sheet. Greenland meltwater is expected to exacerbate AMOC weakening, and omitting it increases the uncertainty in assessing the possibility of a future abrupt collapse or tipping of the AMOC. Here, we test the abruptness and reversibility of AMOC changes under strong future global warming in a state-of-the-art climate model with and without physically plausible Greenland meltwater forcing. While Greenland meltwater significantly exacerbates future AMOC weakening, modeled long-term AMOC changes are neither abrupt nor irreversible. While accounting for Greenland meltwater will increase the accuracy of climate projections, our results suggest that the importance of Greenland meltwater for assessing the risk of future AMOC tipping may be smaller than previously thought.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

RainScaleGAN: a Conditional Generative Adversarial Network for Rainfall Downscaling

To this day, accurately simulating local-scale precipitation and reliably reproducing its distribution remains a challenging task. The limited horizontal resolution of Global Climate Models is among the primary factors undermining their skill in this context. The physical mechanisms driving the onset and development of precipitation, especially in extreme events, operate at spatio-temporal scales smaller than those numerically resolved, thus struggling to be captured accurately. In order to circumvent this limitation, several downscaling approaches have been developed over the last decades to address the discrepancy between the spatial resolution of models output and the resolution required by local-scale applications. In this paper, we introduce RainScaleGAN, a conditional deep convolutional Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) for precipitation downscaling. GANs have been effectively used in image super-resolution, an approach highly relevant for downscaling tasks. RainScaleGAN's capabilities are tested in a perfect-model setup, where the spatial resolution of a precipitation dataset is artificially degraded from 0.25$^{\circ}\times$0.25$^{\circ}$ to 2$^{\circ}\times$2$^\circ$, and RainScaleGAN is used to restore it. The developed model outperforms one of the leading precipitation downscaling method found in the literature. RainScaleGAN not only generates a synthetic dataset featuring plausible high-resolution spatial patterns and intensities, but also produces a precipitation distribution with statistics closely mirroring those of the ground-truth dataset. Given that RainScaleGAN's approach is agnostic with respect to the underlying physics, the method has the potential to be applied to other physical variables such as surface winds or temperature.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Multi-model evidence of future tropical Atlantic precipitation change modulated by AMOC decline

Projections from global climate models reveal a significant inter-model spread in future rainfall changes in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the 21st century, including alterations to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and monsoonal regions. While existing studies have identified various sources of uncertainty, our research uncovers a prominent role played by the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the inter-model spread. Firstly we examine 30 climate model simulations (using the ssp5-8.5 scenario) from the CMIP6 archive and show that models that present a more substantial AMOC decline exhibit an equatorward shift of the ascending branch of the Atlantic regional Hadley circulation, resulting in a southward displacement of the ITCZ. Conversely, models characterized by a smaller AMOC decline do not indicate any ITCZ displacement. Secondly, we use targeted experiments (using the abrupt 4xCO2 experiment) to specifically isolate the effects of a weakened AMOC from the changes in precipitation that would occur if, under continuous global warming, the AMOC did not weaken. Our results demonstrate that net precipitation anomalies in the abrupt 4xCO2 experiments are displaced southwards compared to the simulation with fixed AMOC strength, corroborating our previous findings. Our study has implications for understanding the mechanisms driving future changes in tropical Atlantic precipitation, and underscores the central role played by the AMOC in future climate change.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Impact of vegetation albedo on the habitability of Earth-like exoplanets

Vegetation can modify the planetary surface albedo via the Charney mechanism, as plants are usually darker than the bare surface of the continents. We updated ESTM (Earth-like Surface Temperature Model) to incorporate the presence, distribution and evolution of two dynamically competing vegetation types that resemble grasslands and trees (the latter in the double stages of life: adults and seedlings). The newly developed model was applied to estimate how the climate-vegetation system reaches equilibrium across different rocky planetary configurations, and to assess its impact on temperature and habitability. With respect to a world with bare granite continents, the effect of vegetation-albedo feedback is to increase the average surface temperature. Since grasses and trees exhibit different albedos, they affect temperature to different degrees. The ultimate impact on climate depends on the outcome of the competition between these vegetation types. The change in albedo due to vegetation extends the habitable zone and enhances the overall planetary habitability beyond its traditional outer edge. This effect is especially relevant for planets that have a larger extension of continents than Earth. For Earth, the semi-major axis d = 1.04 UA represents the turning point where vegetation enhances habitability from h = 0.0 to h = 0.485 (in the grass-dominance case), to h = 0.584 (in the case of coexistence between grasses and trees), and to h = 0.612 (in the tree-dominance case). This illustrates the transition from a snowball state to a planet with intermediate habitability at the outer edge of the circumstellar habitability zone.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Centennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation in CMIP6 models shaped by Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and sea ice biases

Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model simulations, large uncertainties remain on the magnitude and physical mechanisms driving centennial-scale AMOC variability. For these reasons, we perform, for the first time, a systematic multi-model comparison of centennial-scale AMOC variability in pre-industrial control simulations of state-of-the-art global climate models. Six out of nine models in this study exhibit a statistically significant mode of centennial-scale AMOC variability. Our results show that freshwater exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic provide a plausible driving mechanism in a subset of models, and that AMOC variability can be amplified by ocean-sea ice feedbacks in the Labrador Sea. The amplifying mechanism is linked to sea ice cover biases, which could provide an observational constraint for centennial-scale AMOC variability.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

EOS: Atmospheric Radiative Transfer in Habitable Worlds with HELIOS

We present EOS, a procedure for determining the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) albedo for a wide range of conditions expected to be present in the atmospheres of rocky planets with temperate conditions. EOS is based on HELIOS and HELIOS-K, which are novel and publicly available atmospheric radiative transfer (RT) codes optimized for fast calculations with GPU processors. These codes were originally developed for the study of giant planets. In this paper we present an adaptation for applications to terrestrial-type, habitable planets, adding specific physical recipes for the gas opacity and vertical structure of the atmosphere. To test the reliability of the procedure we assessed the impact of changing line opacity profile, continuum opacity model, atmospheric lapse rate and tropopause position prescriptions on the OLR and the TOA albedo. The results obtained with EOS are in line with those of other RT codes running on traditional CPU processors, while being at least one order of magnitude faster. The adoption of OLR and TOA albedo data generated with EOS in a zonal and seasonal climate model correctly reproduce the fluxes of the present-day Earth measured by the CERES spacecraft. The results of this study disclose the possibility to incorporate fast RT calculations in climate models aimed at characterizing the atmospheres of habitable exoplanets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2010

Non-Gaussian buoyancy statistics in fingering convection

We examine the statistics of active scalar fluctuations in high-Rayleigh number fingering convection with high-resolution three-dimensional numerical experiments. The one-point distribution of buoyancy fluctuations is found to present significantly non-Gaussian tails. A modified theory based on an original approach by Yakhot (1989) is used to model the active scalar distributions as a function of the conditional expectation values of scalar dissipation and fluxes in the flow. Simple models for these two quantities highlight the role of blob-like coherent structures for scalar statistics in fingering convection.

physics.flu-dyn↗