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Juan Emmanuel Johnson

Publications and source records attributed to Juan Emmanuel Johnson.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Operational machine learning for remote spectroscopic detection of CH$_{4}$ point sources

Mitigating anthropogenic methane sources is one of the most cost-effective levers to slow down global warming. While satellite-based imaging spectrometers, such as EMIT, PRISMA, and EnMAP, can detect these point sources, current methane retrieval methods based on matched filters produce a high number of false detections requiring manual verification. To address this challenge, we deployed a ML system for detecting methane emissions within the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS) of UNEP's IMEO. This represents the first operational deployment of automated methane point-source detection using spaceborne imaging spectrometers, providing regular global coverage and scalability to future constellations with even higher data volumes. This task required several technical advances. First, we created one of the largest and most diverse and global ML ready datasets to date of annotated methane plumes from three imaging spectrometer missions, and quantitatively compared different deep learning model configurations. Second, we extended prior evaluation methodologies from small, tiled datasets to full granules that are more representative of operational use. This revealed that deep learning models still produce a large number of false detections, a problem we addressed with model ensembling, which reduced false detections by over 74%. During 11 months of operational deployment, our system processed more than 25,000 hyperspectral products faciliting the verification of 2,851 distinct methane leaks, which resulted in 834 stakeholder notifications. We further demonstrate the model's utility in verifying mitigation success through case studies in Libya, Argentina, Oman, and Azerbaijan. Our work represents a critical step towards a global AI-assisted methane leak detection system, which is required to process the dramatically higher data volumes expected from current and future imaging spectrometers.

cs.AI

AI-driven weather forecasts enable anticipated attribution of extreme events to human-made climate change

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Attributing individual extreme events (EEs) to ACC is becoming crucial to assess the risks of climate change. Traditional attribution methods often suffer from a selection bias, are computationally demanding, and provide answers after the EE occurs. This study presents a ground-breaking hybrid attribution method by combining physics-based ACC estimates from global climate models with deep-learning weather forecasts. This hybrid approach circumvents the framing choices and accelerates the attribution process, paving the way for operational anticipated global forecast-based attribution. We apply this methodology to three distinct high-impact weather EEs. Despite some limitations in predictability, the method uncovers ACC fingerprints in the forecasted fields of EEs. Specifically, forecasts successfully anticipate that ACC exacerbated the 2018 Iberian heatwave, deepened hurricane Florence, and intensified the wind and precipitable water of the explosive cyclone Ciarán.

physics.ao-ph

Disentangling Derivatives, Uncertainty and Error in Gaussian Process Models

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a class of kernel methods that have shown to be very useful in geoscience applications. They are widely used because they are simple, flexible and provide very accurate estimates for nonlinear problems, especially in parameter retrieval. An addition to a predictive mean function, GPs come equipped with a useful property: the predictive variance function which provides confidence intervals for the predictions. The GP formulation usually assumes that there is no input noise in the training and testing points, only in the observations. However, this is often not the case in Earth observation problems where an accurate assessment of the instrument error is usually available. In this paper, we showcase how the derivative of a GP model can be used to provide an analytical error propagation formulation and we analyze the predictive variance and the propagated error terms in a temperature prediction problem from infrared sounding data.

stat.ML