arXiv subjects

Juan L. Gamella

Publications and source records attributed to Juan L. Gamella.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Sanity Checking Causal Representation Learning on a Simple Real-World System

We evaluate methods for causal representation learning (CRL) on a simple, real-world system that satisfies the basic problem setup of CRL. The system consists of a controlled optical experiment producing a variety of measurements where the underlying causal factors---the control inputs to the experiment---are known, providing a ground truth. We select methods representative of different approaches to CRL and find that they all fail to consistently recover the underlying causal factors. To understand the failure modes of the evaluated algorithms, we perform an ablation on the data by substituting the real data-generating process with a simpler synthetic equivalent. The results reveal a reproducibility problem, as most methods already fail on this synthetic ablation despite its simple data-generating process. Additionally, we observe that common assumptions on the mixing function are crucial for the performance of some of the methods but do not hold in the real data. Our efforts highlight the contrast between the theoretical promise of the state of the art and the challenges in its application. We hope the benchmark serves as a simple, real-world sanity check to further develop and validate methodol- ogy, bridging the gap towards CRL methods that work in practice.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Anti-causal domain generalization: Leveraging unlabeled data

The problem of domain generalization concerns learning predictive models that are robust to distribution shifts when deployed in new, previously unseen environments. Existing methods typically require labeled data from multiple training environments, limiting their applicability when labeled data are scarce. In this work, we study domain generalization in an anti-causal setting, where the outcome causes the observed covariates. Under this structure, environment perturbations that affect the covariates do not propagate to the outcome, which motivates regularizing the model's sensitivity to these perturbations. Crucially, estimating these perturbation directions does not require labels, enabling us to leverage unlabeled data from multiple environments. We propose two methods that penalize the model's sensitivity to variations in the mean and covariance of the covariates across environments, respectively, and prove that these methods have worst-case optimality guarantees under certain classes of environments. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical performance of our approach on a controlled physical system and a physiological signal dataset.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Addressing Misspecification in Simulation-based Inference through Data-driven Calibration

Driven by steady progress in deep generative modeling, simulation-based inference (SBI) has emerged as the workhorse for inferring the parameters of stochastic simulators. However, recent work has demonstrated that model misspecification can compromise the reliability of SBI, preventing its adoption in important applications where only misspecified simulators are available. This work introduces robust posterior estimation~(RoPE), a framework that overcomes model misspecification with a small real-world calibration set of ground-truth parameter measurements. We formalize the misspecification gap as the solution of an optimal transport~(OT) problem between learned representations of real-world and simulated observations, allowing RoPE to learn a model of the misspecification without placing additional assumptions on its nature. RoPE demonstrates how OT and a calibration set provide a controllable balance between calibrated uncertainty and informative inference, even under severely misspecified simulators. Results on four synthetic tasks and two real-world problems with ground-truth labels demonstrate that RoPE outperforms baselines and consistently returns informative and calibrated credible intervals.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Characterization and Greedy Learning of Gaussian Structural Causal Models under Unknown Interventions

We consider the problem of recovering the causal structure underlying observations from different experimental conditions when the targets of the interventions in each experiment are unknown. We assume a linear structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise and consider interventions that perturb their targets while maintaining the causal relationships in the system. Different models may entail the same distributions, offering competing causal explanations for the given observations. We fully characterize this equivalence class and offer identifiability results, which we use to derive a greedy algorithm called GnIES to recover the equivalence class of the data-generating model without knowledge of the intervention targets. In addition, we develop a novel procedure to generate semi-synthetic data sets with known causal ground truth but distributions closely resembling those of a real data set of choice. We leverage this procedure and evaluate the performance of GnIES on an array of synthetic and semi-synthetic data sets, and real data from a biological system and a tightly controlled physical system. We provide, in the Python packages gnies and sempler, implementations of GnIES and our semi-synthetic data generation procedure.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

The Causal Chambers: Real Physical Systems as a Testbed for AI Methodology

In some fields of AI, machine learning and statistics, the validation of new methods and algorithms is often hindered by the scarcity of suitable real-world datasets. Researchers must often turn to simulated data, which yields limited information about the applicability of the proposed methods to real problems. As a step forward, we have constructed two devices that allow us to quickly and inexpensively produce large datasets from non-trivial but well-understood physical systems. The devices, which we call causal chambers, are computer-controlled laboratories that allow us to manipulate and measure an array of variables from these physical systems, providing a rich testbed for algorithms from a variety of fields. We illustrate potential applications through a series of case studies in fields such as causal discovery, out-of-distribution generalization, change point detection, independent component analysis, and symbolic regression. For applications to causal inference, the chambers allow us to carefully perform interventions. We also provide and empirically validate a causal model of each chamber, which can be used as ground truth for different tasks. All hardware and software is made open source, and the datasets are publicly available at causalchamber.org or through the Python package causalchamber.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Learning and scoring Gaussian latent variable causal models with unknown additive interventions

With observational data alone, causal structure learning is a challenging problem. The task becomes easier when having access to data collected from perturbations of the underlying system, even when the nature of these is unknown. Existing methods either do not allow for the presence of latent variables or assume that these remain unperturbed. However, these assumptions are hard to justify if the nature of the perturbations is unknown. We provide results that enable scoring causal structures in the setting with additive, but unknown interventions. Specifically, we propose a maximum-likelihood estimator in a structural equation model that exploits system-wide invariances to output an equivalence class of causal structures from perturbation data. Furthermore, under certain structural assumptions on the population model, we provide a simple graphical characterization of all the DAGs in the interventional equivalence class. We illustrate the utility of our framework on synthetic data as well as real data involving California reservoirs and protein expressions. The software implementation is available as the Python package \emph{utlvce}.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Active Invariant Causal Prediction: Experiment Selection through Stability

A fundamental difficulty of causal learning is that causal models can generally not be fully identified based on observational data only. Interventional data, that is, data originating from different experimental environments, improves identifiability. However, the improvement depends critically on the target and nature of the interventions carried out in each experiment. Since in real applications experiments tend to be costly, there is a need to perform the right interventions such that as few as possible are required. In this work we propose a new active learning (i.e. experiment selection) framework (A-ICP) based on Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP) (Peters et al., 2016). For general structural causal models, we characterize the effect of interventions on so-called stable sets, a notion introduced by (Pfister et al., 2019). We leverage these results to propose several intervention selection policies for A-ICP which quickly reveal the direct causes of a response variable in the causal graph while maintaining the error control inherent in ICP. Empirically, we analyze the performance of the proposed policies in both population and finite-regime experiments.

stat.ME↗