arXiv subjects

Juan Miguel Morales

Publications and source records attributed to Juan Miguel Morales.

28 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Inverse Optimization with Kernel Regression: Application to the Power Forecasting and Bidding of a Fleet of Electric Vehicles

This paper considers an aggregator of Electric Vehicles (EVs) who aims to learn the aggregate power of his/her fleet while also participating in the electricity market. The proposed approach is based on a data-driven inverse optimization (IO) method, which is highly nonlinear. To overcome such a caveat, we use a two-step estimation procedure which requires solving two convex programs. Both programs depend on penalty parameters that can be adjusted by using grid search. In addition, we propose the use of kernel regression to account for the nonlinear relationship between the behaviour of the pool of EVs and the explanatory variables, i.e., the past electricity prices and EV fleet's driving patterns. Unlike any other forecasting method, the proposed IO framework also allows the aggregator to derive a bid/offer curve, i.e. the tuple of price-quantity to be submitted to the electricity market, according to the market rules. We show the benefits of the proposed method against the machine-learning techniques that are reported to exhibit the best forecasting performance for this application in the technical literature.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

A novel embedded min-max approach for feature selection in nonlinear support vector machine classification

In recent years, feature selection has become a challenging problem in several machine learning fields, such as classification problems. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a well-known technique applied in classification tasks. Various methodologies have been proposed in the literature to select the most relevant features in SVM. Unfortunately, all of them either deal with the feature selection problem in the linear classification setting or propose ad-hoc approaches that are difficult to implement in practice. In contrast, we propose an embedded feature selection method based on a min-max optimization problem, where a trade-off between model complexity and classification accuracy is sought. By leveraging duality theory, we equivalently reformulate the min-max problem and solve it without further ado using off-the-shelf software for nonlinear optimization. The efficiency and usefulness of our approach are tested on several benchmark data sets in terms of accuracy, number of selected features and interpretability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Day-ahead Operation of an Aggregator of Electric Vehicles via Optimization under Uncertainty

We pose the aggregator's problem as a bilevel model, where the upper level minimizes the total operation costs of the fleet of EVs, while each lower level minimizes the energy available to each vehicle for transportation given a certain charging plan. Thanks to the totally unimodular character of the constraint matrix in the lower-level problems, the model can be mathematically recast as a computationally efficient mixed-integer program that delivers charging schedules that are robust against the uncertain availability of the EVs. Finally, we use synthetic data from the National Household Travel Survey 2017 to analyze the behavior of the EV aggregator from both economic and technical viewpoints and compare it with the results from a deterministic approach.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Data-Driven Screening of Network Constraints for Unit Commitment

The transmission-constrained unit commitment (TC-UC) problem is one of the most relevant problems solved by independent system operators for the daily operation of power systems. Given its computational complexity, this problem is usually not solved to global optimality for real-size power systems. In this paper, we propose a data-driven method that leverages historical information to screen out network constraints in the TC-UC problem. First, past data on demand and renewable generation throughout the network are used to learn the congestion status of transmission lines. Then, we infer the lines that will not become congested for upcoming operating conditions based on such learning and disregard their capacity constraints. This way, we formulate a reduced TC-UC problem that is easier to solve. Numerical results on a medium- and a large-size power system show that the proposed approach outperforms existing ones by significantly reducing the computational time while obtaining solutions that are equal or close to the one obtained with the original TC-UC problem. Furthermore, the purely data-driven method we propose can be seamlessly complemented with a constraint generation procedure to guarantee that the optimal solution to the original TC-UC problem is eventually recovered.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

How Can Smart Buildings Be Price-Responsive?

The prospective participation of smart buildings in the electricity system is strongly related to the increasing active role of demand-side resources in the electrical grid. In addition, the growing penetration of smart meters and recent advances on home automation technologies will spur the development of new mathematical tools to help optimize the local resources of these buildings. Within this context, this paper first provides a comprehensive model to determine the electrical consumption of a single-zone household based on economic model predictive control. The goal of this problem is to minimize the electricity consumption cost while accounting for the heating dynamics of the building, smart home appliances, and comfort constraints. This paper then identifies and analyzes the key parameters responsible for the price-responsive behaviour of smart households.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Time-Adaptive Unit Commitment

The short-term operation of a power system is usually planned by solving a day-ahead unit commitment problem. Due to historical reasons, the commitment of the power generating units is decided over a time horizon typically consisting of the 24 hourly periods of a day. In this paper, we show that, as a result of the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable generation, this somewhat arbitrary and artificial division of time may prove to be significantly suboptimal and counterproductive. Instead, we propose a time-adaptive day-ahead unit commitment formulation that better captures the net-demand variability throughout the day. The proposed formulation provides the commitment and dispatch of thermal generating units over a set of 24 time periods too, but with different duration. To do that, we use a clustering procedure to select the duration of those adaptive time periods taking into account the renewable generation and demand forecasts. Numerical results show that, without increasing the computational burden, the proposed time-adaptive unit commitment allows for a more efficient use of the system flexibility, which translates into a lower operating cost and a higher penetration of renewable production than those achieved by a conventional hourly unit commitment problem.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Solving Linear Bilevel Problems Using Big-Ms: Not All That Glitters Is Gold

The most common procedure to solve a linear bilevel problem in the PES community is, by far, to transform it into an equivalent single-level problem by replacing the lower level with its KKT optimality conditions. Then, the complementarity conditions are reformulated using additional binary variables and large enough constants (big-Ms) to cast the single-level problem as a mixed-integer linear program that can be solved using optimization software. In most cases, such large constants are tuned by trial and error. We show, through a counterexample, that this widely used trial-and-error approach may lead to highly suboptimal solutions. Then, further research is required to properly select big-M values to solve linear bilevel problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

A bicriteria perspective on L-Penalty Approaches - A corrigendum to Siddiqui and Gabriel's L-Penalty Approach for Solving MPECs

This paper presents a corrigendum to Theorems 2 and 3 in Siddiqui S, Gabriel S (2013), An SOS1-Based Approach for Solving MPECs with a Natural Gas Market Application, Networks and Spatial Economics 13(2):205--227. In brief, we revise the claim that their L-penalty approach yields a solution satisfying complementarity for any positive value of L, in general. This becomes evident when interpreting the L-penalty method as a weighted-sum scalarization of a bicriteria optimization problem. We also elaborate further assumptions under which the L-penalty approach yields a solution satisfying complementarity.

math.OC↗

arXiv2014

Impact of Forecast Errors on Expansion Planning of Power Systems with a Renewables Target

This paper analyzes the impact of production forecast errors on the expansion planning of a power system and investigates the influence of market design to facilitate the integration of renewable generation. For this purpose, we propose a stochastic programming modeling framework to determine the expansion plan that minimizes system-wide investment and operating costs, while ensuring a given share of renewable generation in the electricity supply. Unlike existing ones, this framework includes both a day-ahead and a balancing market so as to capture the impact of both production forecasts and the associated prediction errors. Within this framework, we consider two paradigmatic market designs that essentially differ in whether the day-ahead generation schedule and the subsequent balancing re-dispatch are co-optimized or not. The main features and results of the model set-ups are discussed using an illustrative four-node example and a more realistic 24-node case study.

math.OC↗

arXiv2014

Modeling the Impact of Imbalance Costs on Generating Expansion of Stochastic Units

The imbalance costs incurred by a stochastic power producer due to forecast production errors have a significant impact on its total profit and therefore, such an impact needs to be taken into account when evaluating investment decisions. In this paper, we propose a modeling framework to analyze the effect of these imbalance costs on optimal generating expansion decisions of stochastic units. The proposed model is cast as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints, which allows the explicit representation of both the day-ahead and balancing market-clearing mechanisms. We use the proposed framework to investigate the effect of two paradigmatic market designs on investment decisions: a day-ahead market that is cleared following a conventional cost merit-order principle, and an ideal market-clearing procedure that determines day-ahead dispatch decisions accounting for their impact on balancing operation costs. The variability throughout the planning horizon of the expected stochastic power production and demand level in the day-ahead market is modeled via a scenario set. Likewise, the uncertainty pertaining to their corresponding forecast errors, which are to be settled in the balancing market, is also characterized through scenarios. The main features and results of the proposed models are discussed using an illustrative two-node example and a more realistic 24-node case study.

math.OC↗