arXiv subjects

Judah Van Zandt

Publications and source records attributed to Judah Van Zandt.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

A Testbed for Tidal Migration: the 3D Architecture of an Eccentric Hot Jupiter HD 118203 b Accompanied by a Possibly Aligned Outer Giant Planet

Characterizing outer companions to hot Jupiters plays a crucial role in deciphering their origins. We present the discovery of a long-period giant planet, HD 118203 c ($m_{c}=11.79^{+0.69}_{-0.63}\ \mathrm{M_{J}}$, $a_{c}=6.28^{+0.10}_{-0.11}$ AU) exterior to a close-in eccentric hot Jupiter HD 118203 b ($P_{b}=6.135\ \mathrm{days}$, $m_{b}=2.14\pm{0.12}\ \mathrm{M_{J}}$, $r_{b}=1.14\pm{0.029}\ \mathrm{R_{J}}$, $e_{b}=0.31\pm{0.007}$) based on twenty-year radial velocities. Using Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) observations from the Keck Planet Finder (KPF), we measured a low sky-projected spin-orbit angle $λ_{b}=-11^{\circ}.7^{+7.6}_{-10.0}$ for HD 118203 b and detected stellar oscillations in the host star, confirming its evolved status. Combining the RM observation with the stellar inclination measurement, we constrained the true spin-orbit angle of HD 118203 b as $Ψ_{b}<33^{\circ}.5\ (2σ)$, indicating the orbit normal of the hot Jupiter nearly aligned with the stellar spin axis. Furthermore, by combining radial velocities and Hipparcos-Gaia astrometric acceleration, we constrained the line-of-sight mutual inclination between the hot Jupiter and the outer planet to be $9^{\circ}.8^{+16.2}_{-9.3}$ at $2σ$ level. HD 118203 is one of first hot Jupiter systems where both the true spin-orbit angle of the hot Jupiter and the mutual inclination between inner and outer planets have been determined. Our results are consistent with a system-wide alignment, with low mutual inclinations between the outer giant planet, the inner hot Jupiter, and the host star. This alignment, along with the moderate eccentricity of HD 118203 c, implies that the system may have undergone coplanar high-eccentricity tidal migration. Under this framework, our dynamical analysis suggests an initial semi-major axis of 0.3 to 3.2 AU for the proto-hot Jupiter.

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arXiv2024

The TESS-Keck Survey. XXII. A sub-Neptune Orbiting TOI-1437

Exoplanet discoveries have revealed a dramatic diversity of planet sizes across a vast array of orbital architectures. Sub-Neptunes are of particular interest; due to their absence in our own solar system, we rely on demographics of exoplanets to better understand their bulk composition and formation scenarios. Here, we present the discovery and characterization of TOI-1437 b, a sub-Neptune with a 18.84 day orbit around a near-Solar analog (Mstar = 1.10 +/- 0.10 Msun, Rstar = 1.17 +/- 0.12 Rsun). The planet was detected using photometric data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission and radial velocity follow-up observations were carried out as a part of the TESS-Keck Survey (TKS) using both the HIRES instrument at Keck Observatory and the Levy Spectrograph on the Automated Planet Finder (APF) telescope. A combined analysis of these data reveal a planet radius of Rp = 2.24 +/- 0.23 Rearth and a mass measurement of Mp = 9.6 +/- 3.9 Mearth). TOI-1437 b is one of few (~50) known transiting sub-Neptunes orbiting a solar-mass star that has a radial velocity mass measurement. As the formation pathway of these worlds remains an unanswered question, the precise mass characterization of TOI-1437 b may provide further insight into this class of planet.

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arXiv2024

An Earth-sized Planet on the Verge of Tidal Disruption

TOI-6255~b (GJ 4256) is an Earth-sized planet (1.079$\pm0.065$ $R_\oplus$) with an orbital period of only 5.7 hours. With the newly commissioned Keck Planet Finder (KPF) and CARMENES spectrographs, we determined the planet's mass to be 1.44$\pm$0.14 $M_{\oplus}$. The planet is just outside the Roche limit, with $P_{\rm orb}/P_{\rm Roche}$ = 1.13 $\pm0.10$. The strong tidal force likely deforms the planet into a triaxial ellipsoid with a long axis that is $\sim$10\% longer than the short axis. Assuming a reduced stellar tidal quality factor $Q_\star^\prime \approx10^7$, we predict that tidal orbital decay will cause TOI-6255 to reach the Roche limit in roughly 400 Myr. Such tidal disruptions may produce the possible signatures of planet engulfment that have been on stars with anomalously high refractory elemental abundances compared to its conatal binary companion. TOI-6255 b is also a favorable target for searching for star-planet magnetic interactions, which might cause interior melting and hasten orbital decay. TOI-6255 b is a top target (Emission Spectroscopy Metric of about 24) for phase curve observations with the James Webb Space Telescope.

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arXiv2024

The California Legacy Survey V. Chromospheric Activity Cycles in Main Sequence Stars

We present optical spectroscopy of 710 solar neighborhood stars collected over twenty years to catalog chromospheric activity and search for stellar activity cycles. The California Legacy Survey stars are amenable to exoplanet detection using precise radial velocities, and we present their Ca II H and K time series as a proxy for stellar and chromospheric activity. Using the HIRES spectrometer at Keck Observatory, we measured stellar flux in the cores of the Ca II H and K lines to determine S-values on the Mt. Wilson scale and the log(R'HK) metric, which is comparable across a wide range of spectral types. From the 710 stars, with 52,372 observations, 285 stars are sufficiently sampled to search for stellar activity cycles with periods of 2-25 years, and 138 stars show stellar cycles of varying length and amplitude. S-values can be used to mitigate stellar activity in the detection and characterization of exoplanets. We use them to probe stellar dynamos and to place the Sun's magnetic activity into context among solar neighborhood stars. Using precise stellar parameters and time-averaged activity measurements, we find tightly constrained cycle periods as a function of stellar temperature between log(R'HK) of -4.7 and -4.9, a range of activity in which nearly every star has a periodic cycle. These observations present the largest sample of spectroscopically determined stellar activity cycles to date.

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arXiv2024

The TESS-Keck Survey XX: 15 New TESS Planets and a Uniform RV Analysis of all Survey Targets

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has discovered hundreds of new worlds, with TESS planet candidates now outnumbering the total number of confirmed planets from $\textit{Kepler}$. Owing to differences in survey design, TESS continues to provide planets that are better suited for subsequent follow-up studies, including mass measurement through radial velocity (RV) observations, compared to Kepler targets. In this work, we present the TESS-Keck Survey's (TKS) Mass Catalog: a uniform analysis of all TKS RV survey data which has resulted in mass constraints for 126 planets and candidate signals. This includes 58 mass measurements that have reached $\geq5σ$ precision. We confirm or validate 32 new planets from the TESS mission either by significant mass measurement (15) or statistical validation (17), and we find no evidence of likely false positives among our entire sample. This work also serves as a data release for all previously unpublished TKS survey data, including 9,204 RV measurements and associated activity indicators over our three year survey. We took the opportunity to assess the performance of our survey, and found that we achieved many of our goals including measuring the mass of 38 small ($<4R_{\oplus}$) planets, nearly achieving the TESS mission's basic science requirement. In addition, we evaluated the performance of the Automated Planet Finder (APF) as survey support and observed meaningful constraints on system parameters due to its more uniform phase coverage. Finally, we compared our measured masses to those predicted by commonly used mass-radius relations and investigated evidence of systematic bias.

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arXiv2024

Planet Hunters TESS V: a planetary system around a binary star, including a mini-Neptune in the habitable zone

We report on the discovery and validation of a transiting long-period mini-Neptune orbiting a bright (V = 9.0 mag) G dwarf (TOI 4633; R = 1.05 RSun, M = 1.10 MSun). The planet was identified in data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite by citizen scientists taking part in the Planet Hunters TESS project. Modeling of the transit events yields an orbital period of 271.9445 +/- 0.0040 days and radius of 3.2 +/- 0.20 REarth. The Earth-like orbital period and an incident flux of 1.56 +/- 0.2 places it in the optimistic habitable zone around the star. Doppler spectroscopy of the system allowed us to place an upper mass limit on the transiting planet and revealed a non-transiting planet candidate in the system with a period of 34.15 +/- 0.15 days. Furthermore, the combination of archival data dating back to 1905 with new high angular resolution imaging revealed a stellar companion orbiting the primary star with an orbital period of around 230 years and an eccentricity of about 0.9. The long period of the transiting planet, combined with the high eccentricity and close approach of the companion star makes this a valuable system for testing the formation and stability of planets in binary systems.

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arXiv2024

The SN 2023ixf Progenitor in M101: II. Properties

We follow our first paper with an analysis of the ensemble of the extensive pre-explosion ground- and space-based infrared observations of the red supergiant (RSG) progenitor candidate for the nearby core-collapse supernova SN 2023ixf in Messier 101, together with optical data prior to explosion obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We have confirmed the association of the progenitor candidate with the SN, as well as constrained the metallicity at the SN site, based on SN observations with instruments at Gemini-North. The internal host extinction to the SN has also been confirmed from a high-resolution Keck spectrum. We fit the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) for the star, accounting for its intrinsic variability, with dust radiative-transfer modeling, which assume a silicate-rich dust shell ahead of the underlying stellar photosphere. The star is heavily dust-obscured, likely the dustiest progenitor candidate yet encountered. We found median estimates of the star's effective temperature and luminosity of 2770 K and 9.0e4 L_Sun, with 68% credible intervals of 2340--3150 K and (7.5--10.9)e4 L_sun. The candidate may have a Galactic RSG analog, IRC -10414, with a strikingly similar SED and luminosity. Via comparison with single-star evolutionary models we have constrained the initial mass of the progenitor candidate from 12 M_sun to as high as 14 M_sun. We have had available to us an extraordinary view of the SN 2023ixf progenitor candidate, which should be further followed up in future years with HST and the James Webb Space Telescope.

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arXiv2024

ethraid: A simple method for characterizing long-period companions using Doppler, astrometric, and imaging constraints

We present \texttt{ethraid}, an open source Python package designed to measure the mass ($m_c$) and separation ($a$) of a bound companion from measurements covering a fraction of the orbital period. \texttt{ethraid} constrains $m_c$ and $a$ by jointly modeling radial velocity (RV), astrometric, and/or direct imaging data in a Bayesian framework. Partial orbit data sets, especially those with highly limited phase coverage, are well-represented by a few method-specific summary statistics. By modeling these statistics rather than the original data, \texttt{ethraid} optimizes computational efficiency with minimal reduction in accuracy. \texttt{ethraid} uses importance sampling to efficiently explore the often broad posteriors that arise from partial orbits. The core computations of \texttt{ethraid} are implemented in Cython for speed. We validate \texttt{ethraid}'s performance by using it to constrain the masses and separations of the planetary companions to HD 117207 and TOI-1694. We designed \texttt{ethraid} to be both fast and simple, and to give broad, "quick look" constraints on companion parameters using minimal data. \texttt{ethraid} is pip installable and available on Github.

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arXiv2024

A Tale of Two Peas-In-A-Pod: The Kepler-323 and Kepler-104 Systems

In order to understand the relationship between planet multiplicity, mass, and composition, we present newly measured masses of five planets in two planetary systems: Kepler-323 and Kepler-104. We used the HIRES instrument at the W.M. Keck Observatory to collect 79 new radial velocity measurements (RVs) for Kepler-323, which we combined with 48 literature RVs from TNG/HARPS-N. We also conducted a reanalysis of the Kepler-104 system, using 44 previously published RV measurements. Kepler-323 b and c have masses of $2.0^{+1.2}_{-1.1}$ M$_\oplus$ and 6.5$\pm1.6$ M$_\oplus$, respectively, whereas the three Kepler-104 planets are more massive (10.0$\pm2.8$ M$_\oplus$, $7.1^{+3.8}_{-3.5}$ M$_\oplus$, and $5.5^{+4.6}_{-3.5}$ M$_\oplus$ for planets b, c, and d, respectively). The Kepler-104 planets have densities consistent with rocky cores overlaid with gaseous envelopes ($4.1^{+1.2}_{-1.1}$ g/cc, $2.9^{+1.7}_{-1.5}$ g/cc, and $1.6^{+1.5}_{-1.1}$ g/cc respectively), whereas the Kepler-323 planets are consistent with having rocky compositions ($4.5^{+2.8}_{-2.4}$ g/cc and $9.9^{+2.7}_{-2.5}$ g/cc). The Kepler-104 system has among the lowest values for gap complexity ($\mathcal{C}$ = 0.004) and mass partitioning ($\mathcal{Q}$ = 0.03); whereas, the Kepler-323 planets have a mass partitioning similar to that of the Inner Solar System ($\mathcal{Q}$ = 0.28 and $\mathcal{Q}$ = 0.24, respectively). For both exoplanet systems, the uncertainty in the mass partitioning is affected equally by (1) individual mass errors of the planets and (2) the possible existence of undetected low-mass planets, meaning that both improved mass characterization and improved sensitivity to low-mass planets in these systems would better elucidate the mass distribution among the planets.

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arXiv2024

The TESS-Keck Survey. XII. A Dense 1.8 R$_\oplus$ Ultra-Short-Period Planet Possibly Clinging to a High-Mean-Molecular-Weight Atmosphere After the First Gyr

The extreme environments of ultra-short-period planets (USPs) make excellent laboratories to study how exoplanets obtain, lose, retain, and/or regain gaseous atmospheres. We present the confirmation and characterization of the USP TOI-1347 b, a $1.8 \pm 0.1$ R$_\oplus$ planet on a 0.85 day orbit that was detected with photometry from the TESS mission. We measured radial velocities of the TOI-1347 system using Keck/HIRES and HARPS-N and found the USP to be unusually massive at $11.1 \pm 1.2$ M$_\oplus$. The measured mass and radius of TOI-1347 b imply an Earth-like bulk composition. A thin H/He envelope (>0.01% by mass) can be ruled out at high confidence. The system is between 1 and 1.8 Gyr old; therefore, intensive photoevaporation should have concluded. We detected a tentative phase curve variation (3$σ$) and a secondary eclipse (2$σ$) in TESS photometry, which if confirmed could indicate the presence of a high-mean-molecular-weight atmosphere. We recommend additional optical and infrared observations to confirm the presence of an atmosphere and investigate its composition.

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arXiv2024

The TESS-Keck Survey XXI: 13 New Planets and Homogeneous Properties for 21 Subgiant Systems

We present a dedicated transit and radial velocity survey of planets orbiting subgiant stars observed by the TESS Mission. Using $\sim$$16$ nights on Keck/HIRES, we confirm and characterize $12$ new transiting planets -- $\rm TOI-329\,b$, $\rm HD\,39688\,b$ ($\rm TOI-480$), $\rm TOI-603\,b$, $\rm TOI-1199\,b$, $\rm TOI-1294\,b$, $\rm TOI-1439\,b$, $\rm TOI-1605\,b$, $\rm TOI-1828\,b$, $\rm HD\,148193\,b$ ($\rm TOI-1836$), $\rm TOI-1885\,b$, $\rm HD\,83342\,b$ ($\rm TOI-1898$), $\rm TOI-2019\,b$ -- and provide updated properties for 9 previously confirmed TESS subgiant systems ($\rm TOI-197$, $\rm TOI-954$, $\rm TOI-1181$, $\rm TOI-1296$, $\rm TOI-1298$, $\rm TOI-1601$, $\rm TOI-1736$, $\rm TOI-1842$, $\rm TOI-2145$). We also report the discovery of an outer, non-transiting planet, $\rm TOI-1294\,c$ ($P=160.1\pm2.5$ days, $M_{\mathrm{p}}=148.3^{+18.2}_{-16.4} \,M_{\oplus}$), and three additional stars with long-term RV trends. We find that at least $19\pm8\%$ of subgiants in our sample of $21$ stars have outer companions, comparable to main-sequence stars. We perform a homogeneous analysis of the stars and planets in the sample, with median uncertainties of $3\%$, $8\%$ and $15\%$ for planet radii, masses and ages, doubling the number of known planets orbiting subgiant stars with bulk densities measured to better than $10\%$. We observe a dearth of giant planets around evolved stars with short orbital periods, consistent with tidal dissipation theories that predict the rapid inspiral of planets as their host stars leave the main sequence. We note the possible evidence for two distinct classes of hot Jupiter populations, indicating multiple formation channels to explain the observed distributions around evolved stars. Finally, continued RV monitoring of planets in this sample will provide a more comprehensive understanding of demographics for evolved planetary systems.

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arXiv2024

The TESS-Keck Survey. XVIII. A sub-Neptune and spurious long-period signal in the TOI-1751 system

We present and confirm TOI-1751 b, a transiting sub-Neptune orbiting a slightly evolved, solar-type, metal-poor star ($T_{eff} = 5996 \pm 110$ K, $log(g) = 4.2 \pm 0.1$, V = 9.3 mag, [Fe/H] = $-0.40 \pm 0.06$ dex) every 37.47 d. We use TESS photometry to measure a planet radius of $2.77_{-0.07}^{+0.15}~\rm{R_\oplus}$. We also use both Keck/HIRES and APF/Levy radial velocities (RV) to derive a planet mass of $14.5_{-3.14}^{+3.15} ~\rm{M_\oplus}$, and thus a planet density of $3.6 \pm 0.9 \, {\rm g}\,{\rm cm}^{-3}$. There is also a long-period ($\sim400~\rm{d}$) signal that is observed in only the Keck/HIRES data. We conclude that this long-period signal is not planetary in nature, and is likely due to the window function of the Keck/HIRES observations. This highlights the role of complementary observations from multiple observatories to identify and exclude aliases in RV data. Finally, we investigate potential compositions of this planet, including rocky and water-rich solutions, as well as theoretical irradiated ocean models. TOI-1751 b is a warm sub-Neptune, with an equilibrium temperature of $\sim 820$ K. As TOI-1751 is a metal-poor star, TOI-1751 b may have formed in a water-enriched formation environment. We thus favor a volatile-rich interior composition for this planet.

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arXiv2024

The TESS-Keck Survey. XIX. A Warm Transiting Sub-Saturn Mass Planet and a non-Transiting Saturn Mass Planet Orbiting a Solar Analog

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) continues to dramatically increase the number of known transiting exoplanets, and is optimal for monitoring bright stars amenable to radial velocity (RV) and atmospheric follow-up observations. TOI-1386 is a solar-type (G5V) star that was detected via TESS photometry to exhibit transit signatures in three sectors with a period of 25.84 days. We conducted follow-up RV observations using Keck/HIRES as part of the TESS-Keck Survey (TKS), collecting 64 RV measurements of TOI-1386 with the HIRES spectrograph over 2.5 years. Our combined fit of the TOI-1386 photometry and RV data confirm the planetary nature of the detected TESS signal, and provide a mass and radius for planet b of $0.148\pm0.019$ $M_J$ and $0.540\pm0.017$ $R_J$, respectively, marking TOI-1386 b as a warm sub-Saturn planet. Our RV data further reveal an additional outer companion, TOI-1386 c, with an estimated orbital period of 227.6 days and a minimum mass of $0.309\pm0.038$ $M_J$. The dynamical modeling of the system shows that the measured system architecture is long-term stable, although there may be substantial eccentricity oscillations of the inner planet due to the dynamical influence of the outer planet.

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arXiv2024

Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT 'EM) Survey. IV. Long-term Doppler Spectroscopy for 11 Stars Thought to Host Cool Giant Exoplanets

Discovering and characterizing exoplanets at the outer edge of the transit method's sensitivity has proven challenging owing to geometric biases and the practical difficulties associated with acquiring long observational baselines. Nonetheless, a sample of giant exoplanets on orbits longer than 100 days has been identified by transit hunting missions. We present long-term Doppler spectroscopy for 11 such systems with observation baselines spanning a few years to a decade. We model these radial velocity observations jointly with transit photometry to provide initial characterizations of these objects and the systems in which they exist. Specifically, we make new precise mass measurements for four long-period giant exoplanets (Kepler-111 c, Kepler-553 c, Kepler-849 b, and PH-2 b), we place new upper limits on mass for four others (Kepler-421 b, KOI-1431.01, Kepler-1513 b, and Kepler-952 b), and we show that several "confirmed" planets are in fact not planetary at all. We present these findings to complement similar efforts focused on closer-in short-period giant planets, and with the hope of inspiring future dedicated studies of cool giant exoplanets.

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arXiv2024

The Kepler Giant Planet Search. I: A Decade of Kepler Planet-host Radial Velocities from W. M. Keck Observatory

Despite the importance of Jupiter and Saturn to Earth's formation and habitability, there has not yet been a comprehensive observational study of how giant exoplanets correlate with the architectural properties of close-in, sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets. This is largely because transit surveys are particularly insensitive to planets at orbital separations >1 au, and so their census of Jupiter-like planets is incomplete, inhibiting our study of the relationship between Jupiter-like planets and the small planets that do transit. To investigate the relationship between close-in, small and distant, giant planets, we conducted the Kepler Giant Planet Survey (KGPS). Using the W. M. Keck Observatory High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer, we spent over a decade collecting 2844 radial velocities (RVs; 2167 of which are presented here for the first time) of 63 Sunlike stars that host 157 transiting planets. We had no prior knowledge of which systems would contain giant planets beyond 1 au, making this survey unbiased with respect to previously detected Jovians. We announce RV-detected companions to 20 stars from our sample. These include 13 Jovians (0.3 MJ < M sin i < 13 MJ, 1 au < a < 10 au), eight nontransiting sub-Saturns, and three stellar-mass companions. We also present updated masses and densities of 84 transiting planets. The KGPS project leverages one of the longest-running and most data-rich collections of RVs of the NASA Kepler systems yet, and it will provide a basis for addressing whether giant planets help or hinder the growth of sub-Neptune-sized and terrestrial planets. Future KGPS papers will examine the relationship between small, transiting planets and their long-period companions.

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arXiv2023

The TESS-Keck Survey XVII: Precise Mass Measurements in a Young, High Multiplicity Transiting Planet System using Radial Velocities and Transit Timing Variations

We present a radial velocity (RV) analysis of TOI-1136, a bright TESS system with six confirmed transiting planets, and a seventh single-transiting planet candidate. All planets in the system are amenable to transmission spectroscopy, making TOI-1136 one of the best targets for intra-system comparison of exoplanet atmospheres. TOI-1136 is young ($\sim$ 700 Myr), and the system exhibits transit timing variations (TTVs). The youth of the system contributes to high stellar variability on the order of 50 m s$^{-1}$, much larger than the likely RV amplitude of any of the transiting exoplanets. Utilizing 359 HIRES and APF RVs collected as a part of the TESS-Keck Survey (TKS), and 51 HARPS-N RVs, we experiment with a joint TTV-RV fit. With seven possible transiting planets, TTVs, more than 400 RVs, and a stellar activity model, we posit that we may be presenting the most complex mass recovery of an exoplanet system in the literature to date. By combining TTVs and RVs, we minimized GP overfitting and retrieved new masses for this system: (m$_{b-g}$ = 3.50$^{+0.8}_{-0.7}$, 6.32$^{+1.1}_{-1.3}$, 8.35$^{+1.8}_{-1.6}$, 6.07$^{+1.09}_{-1.01}$, 9.7$^{+3.9}_{-3.7}$, 5.6$^{+4.1}_{-3.2}$ M$_{\oplus}$). We are unable to significantly detect the mass of the seventh planet candidate in the RVs, but we are able to loosely constrain a possible orbital period near 80 days. Future TESS observations might confirm the existence of a seventh planet in the system, better constrain the masses and orbital properties of the known exoplanets, and generally shine light on this scientifically interesting system.

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arXiv2023

Investigating the Atmospheric Mass Loss of the Kepler-105 Planets Straddling the Radius Gap

An intriguing pattern among exoplanets is the lack of detected planets between approximately $1.5$ R$_\oplus$ and $2.0$ R$_\oplus$. One proposed explanation for this "radius gap" is the photoevaporation of planetary atmospheres, a theory that can be tested by studying individual planetary systems. Kepler-105 is an ideal system for such testing due to the ordering and sizes of its planets. Kepler-105 is a sun-like star that hosts two planets straddling the radius gap in a rare architecture with the larger planet closer to the host star ($R_b = 2.53\pm0.07$ R$_\oplus$, $P_b = 5.41$ days, $R_c = 1.44\pm0.04$ R$_\oplus$, $P_c = 7.13$ days). If photoevaporation sculpted the atmospheres of these planets, then Kepler-105b would need to be much more massive than Kepler-105c to retain its atmosphere, given its closer proximity to the host star. To test this hypothesis, we simultaneously analyzed radial velocities (RVs) and transit timing variations (TTVs) of the Kepler-105 system, measuring disparate masses of $M_b = 10.8\pm2.3$ M$_\oplus$ ($ ρ_b = 0.97\pm0.22$ g cm$^{-3}$) and $M_c = 5.6\pm1.2$ M$_\oplus $ ($ρ_c = 2.64\pm0.61$ g cm$^{-3}$). Based on these masses, the difference in gas envelope content of the Kepler-105 planets could be entirely due to photoevaporation (in 76\% of scenarios), although other mechanisms like core-powered mass loss could have played a role for some planet albedos.

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arXiv2023

Overfitting Affects the Reliability of Radial Velocity Mass Estimates of the V1298 Tau Planets

Mass, radius, and age measurements of young (<100 Myr) planets have the power to shape our understanding of planet formation. However, young stars tend to be extremely variable in both photometry and radial velocity, which makes constraining these properties challenging. The V1298 Tau system of four ~0.5 Rjup planets transiting a pre-main sequence star presents an important, if stress-inducing, opportunity to directly observe and measure the properties of infant planets. Suárez-Mascareño et al. (2021) published radial-velocity-derived masses for two of the V1298 Tau planets using a state-of-the-art Gaussian Process regression framework. The planetary densities computed from these masses were surprisingly high, implying extremely rapid contraction after formation in tension with most existing planet formation theories. In an effort to further constrain the masses of the V1298 Tau planets, we obtained 36 RVs using Keck/HIRES, and analyzed them in concert with published RVs and photometry. Through performing a suite of cross validation tests, we found evidence that the preferred model of SM21 suffers from overfitting, defined as the inability to predict unseen data, rendering the masses unreliable. We detail several potential causes of this overfitting, many of which may be important for other RV analyses of other active stars, and recommend that additional time and resources be allocated to understanding and mitigating activity in active young stars such as V1298 Tau.

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