arXiv subjects

Juie Shetye

Publications and source records attributed to Juie Shetye.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Analysis of Short-term Solar Activity Variability and Estimating the Timings of the Next Enhanced Bursts

We present a hybrid forecasting strategy that combines numerical modeling, statistical forecasting, and machine learning methods to predict enhanced bursts of solar activity. These bursts, referred to here as space weather seasons, occur on intermediate timescales of approximately 6 to 18 months. We analyze monthly smoothed sunspot number data from 1878 to 2025 and use Gaussian fitting to identify burst events and characterize their amplitudes and durations. The sunspot number data are divided into training, testing, and forecasting intervals to evaluate both hindcast performance and future predictions. Each solar hemisphere is modeled separately using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average approach. This baseline forecast is refined using an asymmetric Gaussian override to represent the rapid rise and gradual decay of burst activity. Burst amplitudes and durations are then estimated using a random forest regression model. The hybrid method successfully reproduces burst timing between November 2024 and May 2025, with the Northern Hemisphere reaching a peak sunspot number of about 70 around March 2025. The next Northern Hemisphere burst is forecast to occur around December 2025, with a slightly lower peak sunspot number of about 60. In contrast, the Southern Hemisphere shows more complex behavior, with multiple burst amplitudes beginning around October 2024 and continuing until October 2025. The dominant Southern Hemisphere burst reaches an amplitude of about 130 in sunspot number, and the next burst is forecast to occur around December 2025. When the hemispheric forecasts are combined, the total sunspot number is found to be mainly controlled by the stronger activity cycle in the Southern Hemisphere.

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arXiv2025

Compact Ca II K Brightenings Precede Solar Flares: A Dunn Solar Telescope Pilot Study

We present a uniform analysis of compact Ca II K (3934 \AA) brightenings that occur near flare kernels and assess their value as short-lead indicators of solar flare onset. Using high-cadence imaging from the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instrument at the Dunn Solar Telescope (DST), we examine eight flare sequences (seven C-class and one B-class) obtained between 2021 and 2025. Fixed, detector-coordinate regions of interest are used to generate mean-intensity light curves, which are detrended and smoothed to isolate impulsive brightenings. In every event, a compact Ca II K brightening is detected within or adjacent to the flaring region that peaks 10--45 min before the primary kernel and the corresponding rise in GOES 1--8 \AA\ flux. The measured temporal offsets scale with the deprojected separation between the brightening and flare kernels, implying an apparent propagation speed of $\sim$30--35 km s$^{-1}$ that is consistent with chromospheric reconnection. Complementary Spectropolarimeter for Infrared and Optical Regions (SPINOR) spectropolarimetry for one event shows topological reconfiguration from closed to open or extended connectivity, supporting a reconnection-driven origin. These results demonstrate that compact Ca II K brightenings are reproducible, physically meaningful precursors to flare onset. Their simplicity and cadence make them attractive chromospheric indicators, and future work will evaluate their predictive skill alongside established UV/EUV and magnetic diagnostics.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

First High-Resolution Observations of Chromospheric Swirls with the Dunn Solar Telescope

We present the first observations of chromospheric swirls using the Hydrogen-alpha Rapid Dynamics camera and Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere imaging instruments at the Dunn Solar Telescope. These vortices contribute to heating and dynamics across the solar atmosphere. We analyze the morphology and evolution of 34 swirls and their cospatial bright points (BPs) from the photosphere to the mid-chromosphere. To examine swirl-BP interactions and temporal behavior, we use image segmentation, Fourier and spectral analysis, and local correlation tracking. The observed swirls have an average lifetime of 7.9$\pm$5 min and diameter of 3.6$\pm$1 Mm, with a positive correlation indicating smaller swirls tend to be short-lived. 76$\%$ are associated with a compact BP appearing 12 s to 9 min after swirl formation. Swirl motion is also closely linked to their BP(s) global motions. The swirls exhibit a mean angular speed of 0.04 rad s$^{-1}$, radial speed of 17.7 km s$^{-1}$, and period of 180 s. We observe the formation of a spiral-shaped swirl driven by a BP interacting with a large photospheric vortex. The BP is dragged toward the vortex centre, after which the swirl forms. The BP undergoes changes in orientation and elongation that mirror the swirl's chromospheric development. A time lag of -42.5 s between the sudden change in the BP's orientation and the peak of the swirl's intensity variation suggests torsional Alfven waves may contribute to swirl evolution. Our results support a magnetic origin for swirls rooted in motions of photospheric BPs.

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arXiv2025

The Sunspot Solar Observatory Data Archive: Continuing Operations at the Dunn Solar Telescope

The Sunspot Solar Observatory Data Archive (SSODA) stores data acquired with the suite of instruments at the Richard B. Dunn Solar Telescope (DST) from February 2018 to the present. The instrumentation at the DST continues to provide high cadence imaging, spectroscopy, and polarimetry of the solar photosphere and chromosphere across a wavelength range from 3500\r{A} to 11,000\r{A}. At time of writing, the archive contains approximately 374 TiB of data across more than 520 observing days (starting on February 1, 2018). These numbers are approximate as the DST remains operational, and is actively adding new data to the archive. The SSODA includes both raw and calibrated data. A subset of the archive contains the results of photospheric and chromospheric spectropolarimetric inversions using the Hazel-2.0 code to obtain maps of magnetic fields, temperatures, and velocity flows. The SSODA represents a unique resource for the investigation of plasma processes throughout the solar atmosphere, the origin of space weather events, and the properties of active regions throughout the rise of Solar Cycle 25.

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arXiv2023

Searching for signatures of H $α$ spicule-like features in the solar transition region

New instrumental and telescopes covering the optical and ultra-violet spectral regions have revealed a range of small-scale dynamic features, many which may be related. For example, the range of spicule-like features hints towards a spectrum of features and not just two types; however, direct observational evidence in terms of tracking spicules across multiple wavelengths are needed in order to provide further insight into the dynamics of the Sun's outer atmosphere. This paper uses H $α$ data obtained with the CRisp Imaging SpectroPolarimeter instrument on the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope, and in the transition region using the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph with the SJI 1400 Å channel plus spectral data via the Si IV 1394 Å line to track spicules termed Rapid Blue-shifted Excursions (RBEs). The RBEs as seen in the H $α$ blue-wing images presented here can be sub-divided into two categories; a single or multi-threaded feature. Based on the H $α$ spectra, the features can be divided into events showing broadening and line core absorption, events showing broadening and line core emission, events with a pure blue shifted H $α$ profile without any absorption in the red wing, broadened line profile with the absorption in the blue stronger compared to the red wing. From the RBE-like events which have a Si IV 1394 Å line profile, 78% of them show a Si IV line flux increase. Most of these features show a second broadened Si IV component which is slightly blue-shifted.

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arXiv2022

Detection of spicules termed Rapid Blue-shifted Excursions as seen in the chromosphere via Hα and the transition region via Si iv 1394 Å line emission

We show signatures of spicules termed Rapid Blue-shifted Excursions (RBEs) in the Si iv 1394 Å emission line using a semi-automated detection approach. We use the Hα filtergrams obtained by the CRISP imaging spectropolarimeter on the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope and co-aligned Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph data using the SJI 1400 Å channel to study the Spatio-temporal signature of the RBEs in the transition region. The detection of RBEs is carried out using an oriented coronal loop tracing algorithm on Hα Dopplergrams at 35 km s^-1. We find that the number of detected features is significantly impacted by the time-varying contrast values of the detection images, which are caused by the changes in the atmospheric seeing conditions. We detect 407 events with lifetime greater than 32 sec. This number is further reduced to 168 RBEs based on the Hα profile and the proximity of RBEs to the large scale flow. Of these 168 RBEs, 89 of them display a clear Spatio-temporal signature in the SJI 1400 Å channel, indicating that a total of ~53% are observed to have co-spatial signatures between the chromosphere and the transition region.

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arXiv2020

Unveiling the magnetic nature of chromospheric vortices

Vortex structures in the Sun's chromosphere are believed to channel energy between different layers of the solar atmosphere. We investigate the nature and dynamics of two small-scale quiet-Sun rotating structures in the chromosphere. We analyse two chromospheric structures that show clear rotational patterns in spectropolarimetric observations taken with the Interferometric Bidimensional Spectrometer (IBIS) at the Ca II 8542 Å~ line. We present the detection of spectropolarimetric signals that manifest the magnetic nature of rotating structures in the chromosphere. Our observations show two long-lived structures of plasma that each rotate clockwise inside a 10 arcsec$^{2}$~ quiet-Sun region. Their circular polarization signals are 5-10 times above the noise level. Line-of-sight Doppler velocity and horizontal velocity maps from the observations reveal clear plasma flows at and around the two structures. An MHD simulation shows these two structures are plausibly magnetically connected. Wave analysis suggests that the observed rotational vortex pattern could be due to a combination of slow actual rotation and a faster azimuthal phase speed pattern of a magneto-acoustic mode. Our results imply that the vortex structures observed in the Sun's chromosphere are magnetic in nature and that they can be connected locally through the chromosphere.

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arXiv2017

The maximum isotropic energy of gamma-ray bursts

The most energetic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are remarkable sources releasing huge amounts of energy on short timescales. Their prompt emission, which usually lasts few seconds, is so bright that it is visible across the whole observable universe. Studying these extreme events may provide clues on the nature of GRB progenitors and on the physical processes at work in relativistic jets. In this paper, we study the bright end of the isotropic energy distribution of long GRBs. We use two samples of long GRBs with redshift detected by Fermi/GBM or Konus-Wind, two instruments which measure the spectral shape and the energetics of the prompt emission accurately. We focus on GRBs within a range of redshifts z = 1 -- 5, a volume that contains a large number of energetic GRBs, and we propose a simple method to reconstruct the bright end of the GRB energy distribution from the observed one. We find that the GRB energy distribution cannot be described by a simple power law but requires a strong cutoff above $1-3 \times 10^{54}$ erg. We attribute this feature to an intrinsic limit on the energy per unit of solid angle radiated by gamma-ray bursts.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2014

Observations and modelling of North-South asymmetries using a Flux Transport Dynamo

The peculiar behaviour of the solar cycle 23 and its prolonged minima has been one of the most studied problems over the last few years. In the present paper, we study the asymmetries in active region magnetic flux in the northern and southern hemispheres during complete solar cycle 23 and rising phase of solar cycle 24. During the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we find that the magnetic flux in the southern hemisphere is about 10 times stronger than that in the northern hemisphere during the declining phase of the solar cycle 23 and during the rising phase of cycle 24, however, this trend reversed. The magnetic flux becomes about a factor of 4 stronger in the northern hemisphere to that of southern hemisphere. Additionally, we find that there was significant delay (about 5 months) in change of the polarity in the southern hemisphere in comparison with the northern hemisphere. These results provide us with hints of how the toroidal fluxes have contributed to the solar dynamo during the prolonged minima in the solar cycle 23 and in the rising phase of the solar cycle 24. Using a solar flux-transport dynamo model, we demonstrate that persistently stronger sunspot cycles in one hemisphere could be caused by the effect of greater inflows into active region belts in that hemisphere. Observations indicate that greater inflows are associated with stronger activity. Some other change or difference in meridional circulation between hemispheres could cause the weaker hemisphere to become the stronger one.

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