arXiv subjects

Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Publications and source records attributed to Jukka-Pekka Onnela.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Affiliation network model of HIV transmission in MSM

Black men who have sex with men (MSM) in the U.S. are more likely to be HIV-positive than White MSM. Intentional and unintentional segregation of Black from non-Black MSM in sex partner meeting places may perpetuate this disparity, a fact that is ignored by current HIV risk indices, which mainly focus on individual behaviors and not systemic factors. This paper capitalizes on recent studies in which the venues where MSM meet their sex partners are known. Connecting individuals and venues leads to so-called affiliation networks; we propose a model for how HIV might spread along these networks, and we formulate a new risk index based on this model. We test this new risk index on an affiliation network of 466 African-American MSM in Chicago, and in simulation. The new risk index works well when there are two groups of people, one with higher HIV prevalence than the other, with limited overlap in where they meet their sex partners.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Inferring the minimum spanning tree from a sample network

Minimum spanning trees (MSTs) are used in a variety of fields, from computer science to geography. Infectious disease researchers have used them to infer the transmission pathway of certain pathogens. However, these are often the MSTs of sample networks, not population networks, and surprisingly little is known about what can be inferred about a population MST from a sample MST. We prove that if $n$ nodes (the sample) are selected uniformly at random from a complete graph with $N$ nodes and unique edge weights (the population), the probability that an edge is in the population graph's MST given that it is in the sample graph's MST is $\frac{n}{N}$. We use simulation to investigate this conditional probability for $G(N,p)$ graphs, Barabási-Albert (BA) graphs, graphs whose nodes are distributed in $\mathbb{R}^2$ according to a bivariate standard normal distribution, and an empirical HIV genetic distance network. Broadly, results for the complete, $G(N,p)$, and normal graphs are similar, and results for the BA and empirical HIV graphs are similar. We recommend that researchers use an edge-weighted random walk to sample nodes from the population so that they maximize the probability that an edge is in the population MST given that it is in the sample MST.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

A systematic review of smartphone-based human activity recognition for health research

Background: Smartphones are now nearly ubiquitous; their numerous built-in sensors enable continuous measurement of activities of daily living, making them especially well-suited for health research. Researchers have proposed various human activity recognition (HAR) systems aimed at translating measurements from smartphones into various types of physical activity. In this review, we summarize the existing approaches to smartphone-based HAR. Methods: We systematically searched Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science for peer-reviewed articles published up to December 2020 on the use of smartphones for HAR. We extracted information on smartphone body location, sensors, and physical activity types studied and the data transformation techniques and classification schemes used for activity recognition. Results: We identified 108 articles and described the various approaches used for data acquisition, data preprocessing, feature extraction, and activity classification, identifying the most common practices and their alternatives. Conclusions: Smartphones are well-suited for HAR research in the health sciences. For population-level impact, future studies should focus on improving quality of collected data, address missing data, incorporate more diverse participants and activities, relax requirements about phone placement, provide more complete documentation on study participants, and share the source code of the implemented methods and algorithms.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Generalizations of Edge Overlap to Weighted and Directed Networks

With the increasing availability of behavioral data from diverse digital sources, such as social media sites and cell phones, it is now possible to obtain detailed information about the structure, strength, and directionality of social interactions in varied settings. While most metrics of network structure have traditionally been defined for unweighted and undirected networks only, the richness of current network data calls for extending these metrics to weighted and directed networks. One fundamental metric in social networks is edge overlap, the proportion of friends shared by two connected individuals. Here we extend definitions of edge overlap to weighted and directed networks, and present closed-form expressions for the mean and variance of each version for the Erdos-Renyi random graph and its weighted and directed counterparts. We apply these results to social network data collected in rural villages in southern Karnataka, India. We use our analytical results to quantify the extent to which the average overlap of the empirical social network deviates from that of corresponding random graphs and compare the values of overlap across networks. Our novel definitions allow the calculation of edge overlap for more complex networks and our derivations provide a statistically rigorous way for comparing edge overlap across networks.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Scalable Approximate Bayesian Computation for Growing Network Models via Extrapolated and Sampled Summaries

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a simulation-based likelihood-free method applicable to both model selection and parameter estimation. ABC parameter estimation requires the ability to forward simulate datasets from a candidate model, but because the sizes of the observed and simulated datasets usually need to match, this can be computationally expensive. Additionally, since ABC inference is based on comparisons of summary statistics computed on the observed and simulated data, using computationally expensive summary statistics can lead to further losses in efficiency. ABC has recently been applied to the family of mechanistic network models, an area that has traditionally lacked tools for inference and model choice. Mechanistic models of network growth repeatedly add nodes to a network until it reaches the size of the observed network, which may be of the order of millions of nodes. With ABC, this process can quickly become computationally prohibitive due to the resource intensive nature of network simulations and evaluation of summary statistics. We propose two methodological developments to enable the use of ABC for inference in models for large growing networks. First, to save time needed for forward simulating model realizations, we propose a procedure to extrapolate (via both least squares and Gaussian processes) summary statistics from small to large networks. Second, to reduce computation time for evaluating summary statistics, we use sample-based rather than census-based summary statistics. We show that the ABC posterior obtained through this approach, which adds two additional layers of approximation to the standard ABC, is similar to a classic ABC posterior. Although we deal with growing network models, both extrapolated summaries and sampled summaries are expected to be relevant in other ABC settings where the data are generated incrementally.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Flexible model selection for mechanistic network models

Network models are applied across many domains where data can be represented as a network. Two prominent paradigms for modeling networks are statistical models (probabilistic models for the observed network) and mechanistic models (models for network growth and/or evolution). Mechanistic models are better suited for incorporating domain knowledge, to study effects of interventions (such as changes to specific mechanisms) and to forward simulate, but they typically have intractable likelihoods. As such, and in a stark contrast to statistical models, there is a relative dearth of research on model selection for such models despite the otherwise large body of extant work. In this paper, we propose a simulator-based procedure for mechanistic network model selection that borrows aspects from Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) along with a means to quantify the uncertainty in the selected model. To select the most suitable network model, we consider and assess the performance of several learning algorithms, most notably the so-called Super Learner, which makes our framework less sensitive to the choice of a particular learning algorithm. Our approach takes advantage of the ease to forward simulate from mechanistic network models to circumvent their intractable likelihoods. The overall process is flexible and widely applicable. Our simulation results demonstrate the approach's ability to accurately discriminate between competing mechanistic models. Finally, we showcase our approach with a protein-protein interaction network model from the literature for yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae).

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Flexible model of network embedding

There has lately been increased interest in describing complex systems not merely as single networks but rather as collections of networks that are coupled to one another. We introduce an analytically tractable model that enables one to connect two layers in a multilayer network by controlling the locality of coupling. In particular we introduce a tractable model for embedding one network (A) into another (B), focusing on the case where network A has many more nodes than network B. In our model, nodes in network A are assigned, or embedded, to the nodes in network B using an assignment rule where the extent of node localization is controlled by a single parameter. We start by mapping an unassigned `source' node in network A to a randomly chosen `target' node in network B. We then assign the neighbors of the source node to the neighborhood of the target node using a random walk starting at the target node and with a per-step stopping probability $q$. By varying the parameter $q$, we are able to produce a range of embeddings from local ($q = 1$) to global ($q \to 0$). The simplicity of the model allows us to calculate key quantities, making it a useful starting point for more realistic models.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Activity Classification Using Smartphone Gyroscope and Accelerometer Data

Activities, such as walking and sitting, are commonly used in biomedical settings either as an outcome or covariate of interest. Researchers have traditionally relied on surveys to quantify activity levels of subjects in both research and clinical settings, but surveys are not objective in nature and have many known limitations, such as recall bias. Smartphones provide an opportunity for unobtrusive objective measurement of various activities in naturalistic settings, but their data tends to be noisy and needs to be analyzed with care. We explored the potential of smartphone accelerometer and gyroscope data to distinguish between five different types of activity: walking, sitting, standing, ascending stairs, and descending stairs. We conducted a study in which four participants followed a study protocol and performed a sequence of various activities with one phone in their front pocket and another phone in their back pocket. The subjects were filmed throughout, and the obtained footage was annotated to establish ground truth activity. We applied the so-called movelet method to classify their activity. Our results demonstrate the promise of smartphones for activity detection in naturalistic settings, but they also highlight common challenges in this field of research.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2019

Efficient vaccination strategies for epidemic control using network information

Network-based interventions against epidemic spread are most powerful when the full network structure is known. However, in practice, resource constraints require decisions to be made based on partial network information. We investigated how the accuracy of network data available at individual and village levels affected network-based vaccination effectiveness. We simulated a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered process on empirical social networks from 75 villages. First, we used regression to predict the percentage of individuals ever infected based on village-level network. Second, we simulated vaccinating 10 percent of each of the 75 empirical village networks at baseline, selecting vaccinees through one of five network-based approaches: random individuals; random contacts of random individuals; random high-degree individuals; highest degree individuals; or most central individuals. The first three approaches require only sample data; the latter two require full network data. We also simulated imposing a limit on how many contacts an individual can nominate (Fixed Choice Design, FCD), which reduces the data collection burden but generates only partially observed networks. We found mean and standard deviation of the degree distribution to strongly predict cumulative incidence. In simulations, the Nomination method reduced cumulative incidence by one-sixth compared to Random vaccination; full network methods reduced infection by two-thirds. The High Degree approach had intermediate effectiveness. Surprisingly, FCD truncating individuals' degrees at three was as effective as using complete networks. Using even partial network information to prioritize vaccines at either the village or individual level substantially improved epidemic outcomes. Such approaches may be feasible and effective in outbreak settings, and full ascertainment of network structure may not be required.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

A Bootstrap Method for Goodness of Fit and Model Selection with a Single Observed Network

Network models are applied in numerous domains where data can be represented as a system of interactions among pairs of actors. While both statistical and mechanistic network models are increasingly capable of capturing various dependencies amongst these actors, these dependencies imply the lack of independence. This poses statistical challenges for analyzing such data, especially when there is only a single observed network, and often leads to intractable likelihoods regardless of the modeling paradigm, which limit the application of existing statistical methods for networks. We explore a subsampling bootstrap procedure to serve as the basis for goodness of fit and model selection with a single observed network that circumvents the intractability of such likelihoods. Our approach is based on flexible resampling distributions formed from the single observed network, allowing for finer and higher dimensional comparisons than simply point estimates of quantities of interest. We include worked examples for model selection, with simulation, and assessment of goodness of fit, with duplication-divergence model fits for yeast (S.cerevisiae) protein-protein interaction data from the literature. The proposed procedure produces a flexible resampling distribution that can be based on any statistics of one's choosing and can be employed regardless of choice of model.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Connected but Segregated: Social Networks in Rural Villages

There is an increased appreciation for, and utilization of, social networks to disseminate various kinds of interventions in a target population. Homophily, the tendency of people to be similar to those they interact with, can create within-group cohesion but at the same time can also lead to societal segregation. In public health, social segregation can form barriers to the spread of health interventions from one group to another. We analyzed the structure of social networks in 75 villages in Karnataka, India, both at the level of individuals and network communities. We found all villages to be strongly segregated at the community level, especially along the lines of caste and sex, whereas other socioeconomic variables, such as age and education, were only weakly associated with these groups in the network. While the studied networks are densely connected, our results indicate that the villages are highly segregated.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Bayesian method for inferring the impact of geographical distance on intensity of communication

Both theoretical models and empirical findings suggest that the intensity of communication among groups of people declines with their degree of geographical separation. There is some evidence that rather than decaying uniformly with distance, the intensity of communication might decline at different rates for shorter and longer distances. Using Bayesian LASSO for model selection, we introduce a statistical model for estimating the rate of communication decline with geographic distance that allows for discontinuities in this rate. We apply our method to an anonymized mobile phone communication dataset. Our results are potentially useful in settings where understanding social and spatial mixing of people is important, such as in cluster randomized trials design.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Bayesian Inference of Spreading Processes on Networks

Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because the structure of these interactions matters for spreading processes, the pairwise relationships between individuals in a population can be usefully represented by a network. Although the underlying processes of transmission are different, the network approach can be used to study the spread of pathogens in a contact network or the spread of rumors in an online social network. We study simulated simple and complex epidemics on synthetic networks and on two empirical networks, a social / contact network in an Indian village and an online social network in the U.S. Our goal is to learn simultaneously about the spreading process parameters and the source node (first infected node) of the epidemic, given a fixed and known network structure, and observations about state of nodes at several points in time. Our inference scheme is based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), an inference technique for complex models with likelihood functions that are either expensive to evaluate or analytically intractable. ABC enables us to adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem despite the posterior distribution being very complex. Our method is agnostic about the topology of the network and the nature of the spreading process. It generally performs well and, somewhat counter-intuitively, the inference problem appears to be easier on more heterogeneous network topologies, which enhances its future applicability to real-world settings where few networks have homogeneous topologies.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Inferring Mobility Measures from GPS Traces with Missing Data

With increasing availability of smartphones with GPS capabilities, large-scale studies relating individual-level mobility patterns to a wide variety of patient-centered outcomes, from mood disorders to surgical recovery, are becoming a reality. Similar past studies have been small in scale and have provided wearable GPS devices to subjects. These devices typically collect mobility traces continuously without significant gaps in the data, and consequently the problem of data missingness has been safely ignored. Leveraging subjects' own smartphones makes it possible to scale up and extend the duration of these types of studies, but at the same time introduces a substantial challenge: to preserve a smartphone's battery, GPS can be active only for a small portion of the time, frequently less than $10\%$, leading to a tremendous missing data problem. We introduce a principled statistical approach, based on weighted resampling of the observed data, to impute the missing mobility traces, which we then summarize using different mobility measures. We compare the strengths of our approach to linear interpolation, a popular approach for dealing with missing data, both analytically and through simulation of missingness for empirical data. We conclude that our imputation approach better mirrors human mobility both theoretically and over a sample of GPS mobility traces from 182 individuals in the Geolife data set, where, relative to linear interpolation, imputation resulted in a 10-fold reduction in the error averaged across all mobility features.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Efficient vaccination strategies for epidemic control using network information

Background: Network-based interventions are most powerful against epidemics when the full network structure is known. However, resource constraints often require decisions based on partial network data. We investigated how the effectiveness of network-based vaccination schemes varied based on the accuracy of network data available. Methods: We simulated propagating an SIR process on static empirical social networks from 75 rural Indian villages. First, we used regression analysis to predict the percentage of individuals ever infected (cumulative incidence) based on village-level networks. Second, we simulated vaccinating 10% of each village at baseline, selecting vaccinees using 1 of 5 network-based approaches: at random (Random); random contacts of random individuals (Nomination); random high-degree individuals (High Degree); highest degree (Highest Degree); or most central (Central). The first three approaches require only sample data; the latter two require full network data. We also simulated imposing a limit on how many contacts an individual can nominate (Fixed Choice Design, FCD), which reduces data collection burden but generates only partially observed networks. Results: We found the mean and standard deviation of the degree distribution to strongly predict cumulative incidence. In simulations, Nomination reduced cumulative incidence by one-sixth compared to Random vaccination; full network methods reduced infection by two-thirds. High Degree had intermediate effectiveness. Somewhat surprisingly, FCD truncating individuals' degrees at three was as effective as using complete networks. Conclusions: Using even partial network information to prioritize vaccines at either the village or individual level substantially improved epidemic outcomes. Such approaches may be feasible and effective in outbreak settings, and full ascertainment of network structure may not be required.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2017

The Social Bow Tie

Understanding tie strength in social networks, and the factors that influence it, have received much attention in a myriad of disciplines for decades. Several models incorporating indicators of tie strength have been proposed and used to quantify relationships in social networks, and a standard set of structural network metrics have been applied to predominantly online social media sites to predict tie strength. Here, we introduce the concept of the "social bow tie" framework, a small subgraph of the network that consists of a collection of nodes and ties that surround a tie of interest, forming a topological structure that resembles a bow tie. We also define several intuitive and interpretable metrics that quantify properties of the bow tie. We use random forests and regression models to predict categorical and continuous measures of tie strength from different properties of the bow tie, including nodal attributes. We also investigate what aspects of the bow tie are most predictive of tie strength in two distinct social networks: a collection of 75 rural villages in India and a nationwide call network of European mobile phone users. Our results indicate several of the bow tie metrics are highly predictive of tie strength, and we find the more the social circles of two individuals overlap, the stronger their tie, consistent with previous findings. However, we also find that the more tightly-knit their non-overlapping social circles, the weaker the tie. This new finding complements our current understanding of what drives the strength of ties in social networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Leveraging contact network structure in the design of cluster randomized trials

Background: In settings where proof-of-principle trials have succeeded but the effectiveness of different forms of implementation remains uncertain, trials that not only generate information about intervention effects but also provide public health benefit would be useful. Cluster randomized trials (CRT) capture both direct and indirect intervention effects; the latter depends heavily on contact networks within and across clusters. We propose a novel class of connectivity-informed trial designs that leverages information about such networks in order to improve public health impact and preserve ability to detect intervention effects. Methods: We consider CRTs in which the order of enrollment is based on the total number of ties between individuals across clusters (based either on the total number of inter-cluster connections or on connections only to untreated clusters). We include options analogous both to traditional Parallel and Stepped Wedge designs. We also allow for control clusters to be "held-back" from re-randomization for some period. We investigate the performance epidemic control and power to detect vaccine effect performance of these designs by simulating vaccination trials during an SEIR-type epidemic using a network-structured agent-based model. Results: In our simulations, connectivity-informed designs have lower peak infectiousness than comparable traditional designs and reduce cumulative incidence by 20%, but with little impact on time to end of epidemic and reduced power to detect differences in incidence across clusters. However even a brief "holdback" period restores most of the power lost compared to traditional approaches. Conclusion: Incorporating information about cluster connectivity in design of CRTs can increase their public health impact, especially in acute outbreak settings, with modest cost in power to detect an effective intervention.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2016

Feature-Based Classification of Networks

Network representations of systems from various scientific and societal domains are neither completely random nor fully regular, but instead appear to contain recurring structural building blocks. These features tend to be shared by networks belonging to the same broad class, such as the class of social networks or the class of biological networks. At a finer scale of classification within each such class, networks describing more similar systems tend to have more similar features. This occurs presumably because networks representing similar purposes or constructions would be expected to be generated by a shared set of domain specific mechanisms, and it should therefore be possible to classify these networks into categories based on their features at various structural levels. Here we describe and demonstrate a new, hybrid approach that combines manual selection of features of potential interest with existing automated classification methods. In particular, selecting well-known and well-studied features that have been used throughout social network analysis and network science and then classifying with methods such as random forests that are of special utility in the presence of feature collinearity, we find that we achieve higher accuracy, in shorter computation time, with greater interpretability of the network classification results.

cs.SI↗