arXiv subjects

Juli Huang

Publications and source records attributed to Juli Huang.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

What Should an Agent Remember? Disentangling Retention from Retrieval in Bounded-Memory Evaluation

A persistent agent must decide both what to retain as information arrives and what to surface once a query appears, yet memory evaluations can confound these decisions by comparing methods that differ in both retention and selection. We build a streaming-recall benchmark crossing retention and selection rules and evaluate every condition on the same 300 seeded episodes. Holding access fixed, query-aware selection improves required-fact recall by 15.5 percentage points (95% CI: 12.8 to 18.2), whereas a mixed comparison that also changes history access reports a 68.7-point advantage, of which 53.2 points are attributable to access. Under bounded retention, query-aware, dense, and oracle selection reach the retention ceiling, and all 319 observed failures in the bounded recency condition are caused by eviction rather than ranking errors. Recall falls to 0% as targets recede sufficiently far into the past. Repeating the evaluation on SQuAD preserves the retention ceiling while showing that dense retrieval can outperform lexical retrieval on natural text. These results show that bounded-memory evaluations should hold access fixed and report retention and selection separately.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

When Do Attention-Head Ablations Support Causal Claims? Projection-Level Confounds, Floor Effects, and Matched Controls

Attention-head ablation, zeroing a head and measuring the resulting change in task performance, is a common method for inferring which components of a language model are causally responsible for a behavior. We show using GPT-2 small that this inference can be fragile unless the intervention semantics, evaluation metric, and controls are carefully validated. A natural post-projection implementation of "zeroing a head" is nearly uncorrelated with a corrected pre-projection ablation (Pearson r = 0.057) and selects a completely disjoint top-5 set of important heads. We also show that binary accuracy can hide effects at behavioral floors and near ceilings, whereas gold-token log-probability remains graded. Using a discovery/held-out split and 1,000 matched random-head and layer-matched-head control draws, the corrected per-head effect ranking is highly stable across splits (Spearman rho = 0.974), and the top-5 selected heads significantly exceed both control distributions (Monte Carlo p = 0.001). However, evidence for task specificity is not robust on GPT-2. Replication on DistilGPT2 preserves the intervention-semantic and matched-control findings. These results show that single-head ablation does not by itself justify a causal claim; defensible interpretation requires correct intervention placement, a non-saturated continuous metric, and matched held-out controls.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Multi-Agent Debate for Explainable Trading: Reasoning, Consensus, and Performance in Simulated Markets

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for financial decision-making, yet it remains unclear whether improvements in reasoning quality translate into better economic outcomes. We investigate this question using a multi-agent debate framework for portfolio allocation in historical market simulations, where specialized agents propose, critique, and revise investment decisions. Reasoning quality is evaluated across four dimensions: logical validity, evidential support, alternative consideration, and causal alignment, and compared with downstream financial performance. Across 210 controlled runs, aggregate reasoning quality shows no meaningful relationship with Sharpe ratio (r = 0.07, p = 0.29) or total return (r = 0.03, p = 0.70). Structured prompting increases measured reasoning quality from about 0.72 to 0.84 (+17.7%, Cohen's d about 2.0), but these gains do not consistently translate into higher returns. We identify sycophantic convergence as a central failure mode, where agents abandon independent positions during critique-revision cycles and converge toward similar allocations. A Jensen-Shannon divergence intervention that preserves disagreement improves Sharpe by +0.14 (p = 0.028) and Sortino by +0.25 (p = 0.026), while interventions enforcing stronger causal reasoning do not improve financial performance. Our results suggest that multi-agent debate is most valuable when it preserves independent informational signals rather than simply improving measured reasoning quality.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

Learning to Detect Symbolic Failure: Machine Learning and the Limits of Black-Scholes

We treat options pricing as a representation problem: can machine learning detect systematic deviations from Black-Scholes using 2.6M real option contracts? We compare three regimes: learned abstract embeddings (Kernel PCA), preserved domain structure (tree-based ensembles), and neural network validation. Tree-based methods outperform kernel dimensionality reduction by 21.5 percentage points (93.8% vs 72.3%), and domain-expert features (Greeks, moneyness) outperform engineered features. NN-based and BS-based deviation labels agree 99.9974% of the time, suggesting deviations reflect market structure rather than model artifact. We conclude that in domains with expert-designed symbolic features, preserving structure beats learning abstractions. We make no claim of exploitable mispricings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MACS: A Hybrid Multi-Agent Framework for Reliable Conversational E-Commerce Recommendation

Conversational recommendation for e-commerce is increasingly mediated by large language models (LLMs), yet many real-world deployments operate under a stricter requirement: recommendations must be drawn only from a merchant's fixed catalog, without web search or unsupported product claims. In this setting, the main challenge is reliability under hard constraints: the system must satisfy user requirements, remain grounded in available inventory, and preserve preferences across multiple conversational turns. We present MACS (Multi-Agent Commerce System), a hybrid multi-agent framework for reliable conversational recommendation in fixed-catalog settings. MACS uses LLMs for language-facing tasks such as interpreting user requests, eliciting preferences, and generating responses, while correctness-critical operations, including product retrieval, hard-constraint filtering, brand exclusion, and progressive relaxation, are executed deterministically by the merchant agent. A session-persistent preference layer tracks constraints across turns, enabling consistent handling of budget overwrites and exclusion reversals. On a 140-query single-turn benchmark, MACS achieves the highest pass rate (87.1%) and perfect brand compliance (1.000). On a 10-scenario multi-turn benchmark, MACS achieves the strongest macro Pass@5 (72% vs. 56% GPT+Catalog / 52% Gemini+Catalog) with zero constraint drift. The advantage is sharpest on exclusion reversal (100% vs. 20% / 0%) and constraint accumulation (100% vs. 60% / 40%). Mean judged response quality is similar across systems (0.751 vs. 0.736). These results suggest that hybrid architectures combining deterministic constraint enforcement with session-persistent preference tracking provide stronger reliability-oriented performance than catalog-bound prompt-only baselines in the fixed-catalog merchant setting.

cs.IR↗