Julia Woodward | Searcharxiv

arXiv2025

Machine Learning-Informed 3+1 Sterile Neutrino Global Fits using Posterior Density Estimation of Electron Disappearance Data

Global analyses of particle physics data are integral for validating and scrutinizing published results of experiments. Global fits of anomalous oscillation data which search for one or more eV-scale sterile neutrinos are particularly challenging both to evaluate and to reconcile in the global picture. Fits (especially joint ones) to oscillation data suffer from significant computational burdens, such as likelihood intractability, making traditional Markov Chain-Monte Carlo all but impossible. Given evidence both supporting and challenging beyond Standard Model physics across neutrino experiments of various baselines, energies, and detection techniques, the global search for sterile neutrinos requires additional tools in order to determine whether sterile neutrinos remain a viable solution to unexplained anomalies. Furthermore, both a Bayesian and frequentist interpretation of sterile neutrino data is needed for a complete assessment of longstanding tensions in the field. Techniques from the machine learning subfield of simulation-based inference have a natural application to such a problem. In this contribution, we illustrate some of the outstanding questions of the global picture of light sterile neutrinos by focusing on experiments searching with the disappearance of electron (anti)neutrinos, and look to posterior density estimation strategies to craft answers, including comparisons to a machine-learning-based frequentist approach.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2025

A Frequentist Simulation-Based Inference Treatment of Sterile Neutrino Global Fits

A critical challenge in particle physics is combining results from diverse experimental setups that measure the same physical quantity to enhance precision and statistical power, a process known as a global fit. Global fits of sterile neutrino searches, hunts for additional neutrino oscillation frequencies and amplitudes, present an intriguing case study. In such a scenario, the key assumptions underlying Wilks' theorem, a cornerstone of most classic frequentist analyses, do not hold. The method of Feldman and Cousins, a trials-based approach which does not assume Wilks' theorem, becomes computationally prohibitive for complex or intractable likelihoods. To bypass this limitation, we borrow a technique from simulation-based inference (SBI) to estimate likelihood ratios for use in building trials-based confidence intervals, speeding up test statistic evaluations by a factor $>10^4$ per grid point, resulting in a faster, but approximate, frequentist fitting framework. Applied to a subset of sterile neutrino search data involving the disappearance of muon-flavor (anti)neutrinos, our method leverages machine learning to compute frequentist confidence intervals while significantly reducing computational expense. In addition, the SBI-based approach holds additional value by recognizing underlying systematic uncertainties that the Wilks approach does not. Thus, our method allows for more robust machine learning-based analyses critical to performing accurate but computationally feasible global fits. This allows, for the first time, a global fit to sterile neutrino data without assuming Wilks' theorem. While we demonstrate the utility of such a technique studying sterile neutrino searches, it is applicable to both single-experiment and global fits of all kinds.

hep-ph↗