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Julian Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Julian Ma.

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On the Limits of Prompt-Conditioned Language Models as General-Purpose Learners

Large Language Models (LLMs) are frequently portrayed as general-purpose solvers capable of solving arbitrary tasks. We argue that this view overlooks a fundamental constraint: language is a compressed and capacity-limited interface for conveying task information. Modelling User--System interaction as a bilevel \emph{cheap-talk} game, we analyse how latent tasks are encoded into prompts and reinterpreted under alignment and safety constraints. We introduce a conceptual decomposition separating task inference from execution and derive PAC-Bayes bounds that distinguish finite-sample estimation error from irreducible structural limitations. Our first main result establishes an \emph{expressivity floor}: language acts as a capacity-limited communication channel, and whenever the informational complexity of a task family exceeds the capacity of that channel, distinct tasks become unavoidably indistinguishable to the Solver, inducing a strictly positive error floor that cannot be eliminated by additional data, optimisation, or model scaling alone. We then establish an \emph{objective-misalignment floor}: when alignment constraints restrict the admissible output set, the User-ideal distribution may lie outside the feasible class, inducing an irreducible distortion. Together, these results yield a formal negative conclusion: prompt-conditioned LLMs are not universal problem solvers through prompting alone, as there exist task families for which correct behaviour is provably unattainable even in the infinite-data regime. More broadly, our analysis shows the limits of prompt-based generalisation arise from information-constrained communication and alignment-constrained objectives. This suggests that interfaces beyond natural language, including multimodal observations and, external memory, may reduce the inherent LLM limitations by increasing the task-relevant information available to the System.

cs.LG

On the Geometry of Games and their Solvers

A central challenge in game theory and learning systems such as GANs is understanding which algorithms can efficiently compute equilibria across the heterogeneous landscape of games. Equilibrium computation is typically studied solver by solver and game class by game class, yielding strong local guarantees but a fragmented view of solver behaviour. Existing discrete taxonomies often provide an incomplete account of where algorithms succeed. We study this problem through a solver-game map linking games to effective solver dynamics. Classical theory identifies isolated regions of this map but provides limited insight into intermediate or overlapping regimes, suggesting that solvability is governed by latent structural properties defining a continuous solver-aligned geometry of games. We formalise this perspective through structure-aware solver synthesis. A learned structure recogniser maps each game to a low-dimensional solver-aligned representation, and a policy maps this representation to effective primitive mechanisms, adapting solver behaviour across regimes. This reveals regions where particular solver dynamics are effective and where mixtures of primitives are required rather than a single dominant solver. A bounded residual acts as a local corrector and diagnostic signal for incomplete solver bases or representations. The framework yields both an adaptive solver and an analytical lens: games with similar optimisation dynamics cluster together, revealing continuous regions of algorithmic validity and overlapping solver behaviour. Empirically, we show that fixed primitives exhibit systematic regime mismatch, while the learned representation organises game space into a structured cartography aligned with solver behaviour. These results suggest viewing equilibrium computation as the joint problem of learning solver mechanisms and mapping the geometry of solvability.

cs.AI

Market Inefficiency in Cryptoasset Markets

We demonstrate market inefficiency in cryptoasset markets. Our approach examines investments that share a dominant risk factor but differ in their exposure to a secondary risk. We derive equilibrium restrictions that must hold regardless of how investors price either risk. Our empirical results strongly reject these necessary equilibrium restrictions. The rejection implies market inefficiency that cannot be attributed to mispriced risk, suggesting the presence of frictions that impede capital reallocation.

q-fin.TR

Emergent Bayesian Behaviour and Optimal Cue Combination in LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) excel at explicit reasoning, but their implicit computational strategies remain underexplored. Decades of psychophysics research show that humans intuitively process and integrate noisy signals using near-optimal Bayesian strategies in perceptual tasks. We ask whether LLMs exhibit similar behaviour and perform optimal multimodal integration without explicit training or instruction. Adopting the psychophysics paradigm, we infer computational principles of LLMs from systematic behavioural studies. We introduce a behavioural benchmark - BayesBench: four magnitude estimation tasks (length, location, distance, and duration) over text and image, inspired by classic psychophysics, and evaluate a diverse set of nine LLMs alongside human judgments for calibration. Through controlled ablations of noise, context, and instruction prompts, we measure performance, behaviour and efficiency in multimodal cue-combination. Beyond accuracy and efficiency metrics, we introduce a Bayesian Consistency Score that detects Bayes-consistent behavioural shifts even when accuracy saturates. Our results show that while capable models often adapt in Bayes-consistent ways, accuracy does not guarantee robustness. Notably, GPT-5 Mini achieves perfect text accuracy but fails to integrate visual cues efficiently. This reveals a critical dissociation between capability and strategy, suggesting accuracy-centric benchmarks may over-index on performance while missing brittle uncertainty handling. These findings reveal emergent principled handling of uncertainty and highlight the correlation between accuracy and Bayesian tendencies. We release our psychophysics benchmark and consistency metric (https://bayes-bench.github.io) as evaluation tools and to inform future multimodal architecture designs.

cs.CL

Multiple Proposer Transaction Fee Mechanism Design: Robust Incentives Against Censorship and Bribery

Transaction Fee Mechanism (TFM) design in blockchain protocols has gained significant attention following the pioneering work of Roughgarden [EC' 21], which established a formal framework for analyzing user and block proposer incentives under various Transaction Fee Mechanisms, including Ethereum's current fee mechanism EIP-1559. However, the original TFM framework and follow-up TFM works overlook the critical challenge of censorship resistance-specifically in the presence of an external malicious actor who is willing to bribe the proposer to censor a transaction. In this paper, we extend the Roughgarden's framework to capture censorship resistance under bribery attacks via a Bayesian game, where a strategic block proposer's "type" is determined by a bribe function from an external malicious actor. Under this framework, the definition of a standard TFM is extended to a bribery-aware TFM. This technique is broadly applicable to analyze censorship resistance under bribery attacks of both single and multiple proposer protocols within the original TFM scope. We choose to utilize it to evaluate the incentive compatibility and censorship resistance of several TFMs within the context of a multiple proposer protocol called Fork-Choice Enforced Inclusion Lists (FOCIL). FOCIL represents a critical evolution in the Ethereum roadmap, serving as the consensus and censorship resistance flagship for the upcoming Hegota hard fork. It aims to bolster Ethereum's censorship resistance by enabling multiple proposers to contribute to block construction. While recent works such as Garimidi et al.[FC' 25] have extended the TFM framework to multiple proposer settings, they do not aim to capture censorship under bribery attacks and they are not compatible with the unique hierarchical structure of FOCIL.

cs.GT

The Cost of Permissionless Liquidity Provision in Automated Market Makers

Automated market makers (AMMs) allocate fee revenue \textit{proportional} to the amount of liquidity investors deposit. In this paper, we study the economic consequences of the competition between passive liquidity providers (LPs) caused by this allocation rule. We employ a game-theoretic model in which $N$ strategic agents optimally provide liquidity and two types of liquidity traders trade. In this setting, we find that competition drives LPs to provide excess liquidity. Excess liquidity is costly as more capital is exposed to adverse selection costs. One of our main results is that the price of anarchy, defined over the liquidity provider performance, is $O(N)$, implying that the welfare loss scales linearly with the number of liquidity providers. This inefficient capital allocation is masked when considering the welfare of elastic liquidity traders as the total price of anarchy is $O(1)$. Since this result is driven by elastic liquidity traders benefiting from the liquidity provided because of inelastic liquidity traders, we show that different types of liquidity traders complement each other. Finally, we show that AMM designs that reduce the arbitrage intensity per unit of liquidity do increase utility for liquidity traders but importantly not for LPs nor do they necessarily decrease total arbitrage volume.

cs.GT

Bending back stress chains and unique behaviour of granular matter in cylindrical geometries

We analyse the general solutions for the stress field in planar annuli of isostatic media, a model often used for marginally rigid granular materials in Couette cells. We demonstrate that these solutions are much richer than in rectangular symmetries. Even for uniform media, stress chains are found to curve, broaden away from the stress source, attenuate and leak stress into a cone of influence. Most spectacularly, stress chains may bend back and transmit forces oppositely to the original direction. None of these phenomena arises in solutions for uniform media in Cartesian coordinates. We further analyse non-uniform media, which exhibit chain branching and stress leakage from the chains. These results are directly relevant to the many experiments on granular materials, carried out in Couette cells. They also shed light on, and are supported by, hitherto unexplained experimental observations of curved and back-bending chains, which we point out. In particular, we use our results to provide a new interpretation for the pattern of slip lines observed experimentally.

cond-mat.soft