arXiv subjects

Julian Teusch

Publications and source records attributed to Julian Teusch.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

CLIPPER: Replayable Shortlisted Optimization for Repeated Spatial Coverage Planning

Operational requirements developed with the City of Braunschweig frame municipal micromobility planning under geofenced exclusions, mandatory retained sites, spacing rules, and area-level caps. Each policy edit requires a new feasible plan; full-set greedy takes tens of seconds per alternative at city scale. We present CLIPPER (Constraint-exact Low-latency Iterative Planning with Pooled Evaluation and Replay). It forms bounded candidate pools but recomputes exact current gains and checks every active constraint before selection. Coverage from each candidate alone sets the initial order. Offline full-set scans measure gains omitted by the pool; online, a conservative bound triggers expansion or audit. CLIPPER-F gives each proposal group the same number of candidate slots. Across Braunschweig, Munich, and Berlin, its mean coverage over complete chains stays within 0.245 percentage points of full-set greedy under the same policy, with 13.6--28.9 times lower mean rollout time. CLIPPER-A instead distributes one shared candidate budget across the groups. Under its coverage-prioritized policy, it uses 9--15% of full-set greedy's rollout time under the same policy, with mean gaps of 1.82 percentage points in Braunschweig, 0.12 in Munich, and 0.27 in Berlin. Together, CLIPPER enables rapid, replayable comparison of recorded city-scale planning states while enforcing every encoded model constraint.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

SPARC: Single-Pass Scaling for Motion Forecasting with Conformal Bayesian Last Layers

Human motion forecasters are increasingly accurate and fast, but reliable deployment requires uncertainty estimates that are structured, calibrated, and efficient. Bayesian and ensemble-based uncertainty estimates often require repeated stochastic inference [15, 26], while conformal calibration alone does not provide an epistemic signal or preserve trajectory covariance structure [14, 50]. We introduce SPARC (Single-Pass Adaptive Risk Calibration), a Bayesian-conformal uncertainty layer for motion forecasting. A deterministic MLP backbone predicts the future mean, and a conjugate Bayesian last layer converts time-domain feature leverage into an analytic horizon-wise epistemic scale $\kappa_t(x)$. This scale inflates a graph-temporal Gaussian covariance without changing its correlation structure, and split conformal calibration produces 95% marginal prediction tubes with finite-sample validity under exchangeability. The key interface is the structured factorization $\kappa_t(x)\Sigma_{\mathrm{str},t}(x)$, which injects feature-space epistemic uncertainty into trajectory densities without Monte Carlo sampling. Across nine dataset-protocol blocks and deterministic, multimodal, and calibration baselines, SPARC ranks first on NLL and on the combined MPJPE+NLL criterion while retaining competitive point accuracy and efficient calibrated tubes. Ranking windows by $\kappa$ separates high-error cases, making the scale usable as a lightweight risk monitor.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

EviNAM: Intelligibility and Uncertainty via Evidential Neural Additive Models

Intelligibility and accurate uncertainty estimation are crucial for reliable decision-making. In this paper, we propose EviNAM, an extension of evidential learning that integrates the interpretability of Neural Additive Models (NAMs) with principled uncertainty estimation. Unlike standard Bayesian neural networks and previous evidential methods, EviNAM enables, in a single pass, both the estimation of the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty as well as explicit feature contributions. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate that EviNAM matches state-of-the-art predictive performance. While we focus on regression, our method extends naturally to classification and generalized additive models, offering a path toward more intelligible and trustworthy predictions.

cs.LG↗