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Julie Dugdale

Publications and source records attributed to Julie Dugdale.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2023

Agent-based simulation of pedestrians' earthquake evacuation; application to Beirut, Lebanon

Most seismic risk assessment methods focus on estimating the damages to the built environment and the consequent socioeconomic losses without fully taking into account the social aspect of risk. Yet, human behaviour is a key element in predicting the human impact of an earthquake, therefore, it is important to include it in quantitative risk assessment studies. In this study, an interdisciplinary approach simulating pedestrians' evacuation during earthquakes at the city scale is developed using an agent-based model. The model integrates the seismic hazard, the physical vulnerability as well as individuals' behaviours and mobility. The simulator is applied to the case of Beirut, Lebanon. Lebanon is at the heart of the Levant fault system that has generated several Mw>7 earthquakes, the latest being in 1759. It is one of the countries with the highest seismic risk in the Mediterranean region. This is due to the high seismic vulnerability of the buildings due to the absence of mandatory seismic regulation until 2012, the high level of urbanization, and the lack of adequate spatial planning and risk prevention policies. Beirut as the main residential, economic and institutional hub of Lebanon is densely populated. To accommodate the growing need for urban development, constructions have almost taken over all of the green areas of the city; squares and gardens are disappearing to give place to skyscrapers. However, open spaces are safe places to shelter, away from debris, and therefore play an essential role in earthquake evacuation. Despite the massive urbanization, there are a few open spaces but locked gates and other types of anthropogenic barriers often limit their access. To simulate this complex context, pedestrians' evacuation simulations are run in a highly realistic spatial environment implemented in GAMA [1]. Previous data concerning soil and buildings in Beirut [2, 3] are complemented by new geographic data extracted from high-resolution Pleiades satellite images. The seismic loading is defined as a peak ground acceleration of 0.3g, as stated in Lebanese seismic regulations. Building damages are estimated using an artificial neural network trained to predict the mean damage [4] based on the seismic loading as well as the soil and building vibrational properties [5]. Moreover, the quantity and the footprint of the generated debris around each building are also estimated and included in the model. We simulate how topography, buildings, debris, and access to open spaces, affect individuals' mobility. Two city configurations are implemented: 1. Open spaces are accessible without any barriers; 2. Access to some open spaces is blocked. The first simulation results show that while 52% of the population is able to arrive to an open space within 5 minutes after an earthquake, this number is reduced to 39% when one of the open spaces is locked. These results show that the presence of accessible open spaces in a city and their proximity to the residential buildings is a crucial factor for ensuring people's safety when an earthquake occurs.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2022

Designing Internet of Behaviors Systems

The Internet of Behaviors (IoB) puts human behavior at the core of engineering intelligent connected systems. IoB links the digital world to human behavior to establish human-driven design, development, and adaptation processes. This paper defines the novel concept by an IoB model based on a collective effort interacting with software engineers, human-computer interaction scientists, social scientists, and cognitive science communities. The model for IoB is created based on an exploratory study that synthesizes state-of-the-art analysis and experts interviews. The architecture of a real industry 4.0 manufacturing infrastructure helps to explain the IoB model and it's application. The conceptual model was used to successfully implement a socio-technical infrastructure for a crowd monitoring and queue management system for the Uffizi Galleries, Florence, Italy. The experiment, which started in the fall of 2016 and was operational in the fall of 2018, used a data-driven approach to feed the system with real-time sensory data. It also incorporated prediction models on visitors' mobility behavior. The system's main objective was to capture human behavior, model it, and build a mechanism that considers changes, adapts in real-time, and continuously learns from repetitive behaviors. In addition to the conceptual model and the real-life evaluation, this paper provides recommendations from experts and gives future directions for IoB to become a significant technological advancement in the coming few years.

cs.SE↗
arXiv2020

A methodology for co-constructing an interdisciplinary model: from model to survey, from survey to model

How should computer science and social science collaborate to build a common model? How should they proceed to gather data that is really useful to the modelling? How can they design a survey that is tailored to the target model? This paper aims to answer those crucial questions in the framework of a multidisciplinary research project. This research addresses the issue of co-constructing a model when several disciplines are involved, and is applied to modelling human behaviour immediately after an earthquake. The main contribution of the work is to propose a tool dedicated to multidisciplinary dialogue. It also proposes a reflexive analysis of the enriching intellectual process carried out by the different disciplines involved. Finally, from working with an anthropologist, a complementary view of the multidisciplinary process is given.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2019

A multi-agent system approach in evaluating human spatio-temporal vulnerability to seismic risk using social attachment

Social attachment theory states that individuals seek the proximity of attachment figures (e.g. family members, friends, colleagues, familiar places or objects) when faced with threat. During disasters, this means that family members may seek each other before evacuating, gather personal property before heading to familiar exits and places, or follow groups/crowds, etc. This hard-wired human tendency should be considered in the assessment of risk and the creation of disaster management plans. Doing so may result in more realistic evacuation procedures and may minimise the number of casualties and injuries. In this context, a dynamic spatio-temporal analysis of seismic risk is presented using SOLACE, a multi-agent model of pedestrian behaviour based on social attachment theory implemented using the Belief-Desire-Intention approach. The model focuses on the influence of human, social, physical and temporal factors on successful evacuation. Human factors considered include perception and mobility defined by age. Social factors are defined by attachment bonds, social groups, population distribution, and cultural norms. Physical factors refer to the location of the epicentre of the earthquake, spatial distribution/layout and attributes of environmental objects such as buildings, roads, barriers (cars), placement of safe areas, evacuation routes, and the resulting debris/damage from the earthquake. Experiments tested the influence of time of the day, presence of disabled persons and earthquake intensity. Initial results show that factors that influence arrivals in safe areas include (a) human factors (age, disability, speed), (b) pre-evacuation behaviours, (c) perception distance (social attachment, time of day), (d) social interaction during evacuation, and (e) physical and spatial aspects, such as limitations imposed by debris (damage), and the distance to safe areas. To validate the results, scenarios will be designed with stakeholders, who will also take part in the definition of a serious game. The recommendation of this research is that both social and physical aspects should be considered when defining vulnerability in the analysis of risk.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2019

Real or Fake? User Behavior and Attitudes Related to Determining the Veracity of Social Media Posts

Citizens and Emergency Managers need to be able to distinguish ''fake'' (untrue) news posts from real news posts on social media during disasters. This paper is based on an online survey conducted in 2018 that produced 341 responses from invitations distributed via email and through Facebook. It explores to what extent and how citizens generally assess whether postings are ''true'' or ''fake,'' and describes indicators of the trustworthiness of content that users would like. The mean response on a semantic differential scale measuring how frequently users attempt to verify the news trustworthiness (a scale from 1-never to 5-always) was 3.37. The most frequent message characteristics citizens' use are grammar and the trustworthiness of the sender. Most respondents would find an indicator of trustworthiness helpful, with the most popular choice being a colored graphic. Limitations and implications for assessments of trustworthiness during disasters are discussed.

cs.SI↗
arXiv2019

Coupling agent based simulation with dynamic networks analysis to study the emergence of mutual knowledge as a percolation phenomenon

The emergence of mutual knowledge is a major cognitive mechanism for the robustness of complex socio technical systems. It has been extensively studied from an ethnomethodological point of view and empirically reproduced by multi agent simulations. Whilst such simulations have been used to design real work settings the underlying theoretical grounding for the process is vague. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the emergence of mutual knowledge (MK) in a group of co-located individuals can be explained as a percolation phenomenon. The followed methodology consists in coupling agent-based simulation with dynamic networks analysis to study information propagation phenomena: after using an agent-based simulation we generated and then analysed its traces as networks where agents met and exchanged knowledge. Deep analysis of the resulting networks clearly shows that the emergence of MK is comparable to a percolation process. We specifically focus on how changes at the microscopic level in our agent based simulator affect percolation and robustness. These results therefore provides theoretical basis for the analysis of social organizations.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2019

Understanding communications in medical emergency situations

Good communication is essential within teams dealing with emergency situations. In this paper we look at communications within a resuscitation team performing cardio-pulmonary resuscitation. Communication underpins efficient collaboration, joint coordination of work, and helps to construct a mutual awareness of the situation. Poor communication wastes valuable time and can ultimately lead to life-threatening mistakes. Although training sessions frequently focus on medical knowledge and procedures, soft skills, such as communication receive less attention. This paper analyses communication problems in the case of CPR and proposes an architecture that merges a situation awareness model and the belief-desire-intention (BDI) approach in multi-agent systems. The architecture forms the basis of an agent-based simulator used to assess communication protocols in CPR teams.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2019

Modelling Air Pollution Crises Using Multi-agent Simulation

This paper describes an agent based approach for simulating the control of an air pollution crisis. A Gaussian Plum air pollution dispersion model (GPD) is combined with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict the concentration levels of three different air pollutants. The two models (GPM and ANN) are integrated with a MAS (multi-agent system). The MAS models pollutant sources controllers and air pollution monitoring agencies as software agents. The population of agents cooperates with each other in order to reduce their emissions and control the air pollution. Leaks or natural sources of pollution are modelled as uncontrolled sources. A cooperation strategy is simulated and its impact on air pollution evolution is assessed and compared. The simulation scenario is built using data about Annaba (a city in NorthEast Algeria). The simulation helps to compare and assess the efficiency of policies to control air pollution during crises, and takes in to account uncontrolled sources.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2019

Modelling PM10 Crisis Peaks Using Multi-Agent based Simulation: Application to Annaba City, North-East Algeria

The paper describes a MAS (multi-agent system) simulation approach for controlling PM10 (Particulate Matter) crisis peaks. A dispersion model is used with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict the PM10 concentration level. The dispersion and ANN models are integrated into a MAS system. PM10 source controllers are modelled as software agents. The MAS is composed of agents that cooperate with each other for reducing their emissions and control the air pollution peaks. Different control strategies are simulated and compared using data from Annaba (North-East Algeria). The simulator helps to compare and assess the efficiency of policies to control peaks in PM10.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2019

The design of an agent based model of human activities and communications in cardiac resuscitation

Cardio-pulmonary arrest is a common emergency situation causing over 400,000 deaths per year, more than a 1000 per day, in the USA alone. The goal of this work is to develop an agent based computer simulator that will allow trainers to experiment with different communication protocols, such as those found in air traffic control. This paper describes the first step in designing the simulator development. The design is based on an analysis of communications during real life training simulations using the FIPA standard categories.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2019

A Multi-Agent based Approach for Simulating the Impact of Human Behaviours on Air Pollution

This paper presents a Multi-Agent System (MAS) approach for designing an air pollution simulator. The aim is to simulate the concentration of air pollutants emitted from sources (e.g. factories) and to investigate the emergence of cooperation between the emission source managers and the impact this has on air quality. The emission sources are controlled by agents. The agents try to achieve their goals (i.e. increase production, which has the side effect of raising air pollution) and also cooperate with others agents by altering their emission rate according to the air quality. The agents play an adapted version of the evolutionary N-Person Prisoners' Dilemma game in a non-deterministic environment; they have two decisions: decrease or increase the emission. The rewards/penalties are influenced by the pollutant concentration which is, in turn, determined using climatic parameters. In order to give predictions about the Plume Dispersion) model and an ANN (Artificial Neural Network) prediction model. The prediction is calculated using the dispersal information and real data about climatic parameters (wind speed, humidity, temperature and rainfall). Every agent cooperates with its neighbours that emit the same pollutant, and it learns how to adapt its strategy to gain more reward. When the pollution level exceeds the maximum allowed level, agents are penalised according to their participation. The system has been tested using real data from the region of Annaba (North-East Algeria). It helped to investigate how the regulations enhance the cooperation and may help controlling the air quality. The designed system helps the environmental agencies to assess their air pollution controlling policies.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2019

A Method to Discover Digital Collaborative Conversations in Business Collaborations

Many companies have a suite of digital tools, such as Enterprise Social Networks, conferencing and document sharing software, and email, to facilitate collaboration among employees. During, or at the end of a collaboration, documents are often produced. People who were not involved in the initial collaboration often have difficulties understanding parts of its content because they are lacking the overall context. We argue there is valuable contextual and collaborative knowledge contained in these tools (content and use) that can be used to understand the document. Our goal is to rebuild the conversations that took place over a messaging service and their links with a digital conferencing tool during document production. The novelty in our approach is to combine several conversation-threading methods to identify interesting links between distinct conversations. Specifically we combine header-field information with social, temporal and semantic proximities. Our findings suggest the messaging service and conferencing tool are used in a complementary way. The primary results confirm that combining different conversation threading approaches is efficient to detect and construct conversation threads from distinct digital conversations concerning the same document.

cs.HC↗
arXiv2016

Dynamic Bayesian Networks to simulate occupant behaviours in office buildings related to indoor air quality

This paper proposes a new general approach based on Bayesian networks to model the human behaviour. This approach represents human behaviour with probabilistic cause-effect relations based on knowledge, but also with conditional probabilities coming either from knowledge or deduced from observations. This approach has been applied to the co-simulation of the CO2 concentration in an office coupled with human behaviour.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2015

Towards a general framework for an observation and knowledge based model of occupant behaviour in office buildings

This paper proposes a new general approach based on Bayesian networks to model the human behaviour. This approach represents human behaviour withprobabilistic cause-effect relations based not only on previous works, but also with conditional probabilities coming either from expert knowledge or deduced from observations. The approach has been used in the co-simulation of building physics and human behaviour in order to assess the CO 2 concentration in an office.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2014

Smartphone sensing platform for emergency management

The increasingly sophisticated sensors supported by modern smartphones open up novel research opportunities, such as mobile phone sensing. One of the most challenging of these research areas is context-aware and activity recognition. The SmartRescue project takes advantage of smartphone sensing, processing and communication capabilities to monitor hazards and track people in a disaster. The goal is to help crisis managers and members of the public in early hazard detection, prediction, and in devising risk-minimizing evacuation plans when disaster strikes. In this paper we suggest a novel smartphone-based communication framework. It uses specific machine learning techniques that intelligently process sensor readings into useful information for the crisis responders. Core to the framework is a content-based publish-subscribe mechanism that allows flexible sharing of sensor data and computation results. We also evaluate a preliminary implementation of the platform, involving a smartphone app that reads and shares mobile phone sensor data for activity recognition.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2013

Developing a model of evacuation after an earthquake in Lebanon

This article describes the development of an agent-based model (AMEL, Agent-based Model for Earthquake evacuation in Lebanon) that aims at simulating the movement of pedestrians shortly after an earthquake. The GAMA platform was chosen to implement the model. AMEL is applied to a real case study, a district of the city of Beirut, Lebanon, which potentially could be stricken by a M7 earthquake. The objective of the model is to reproduce real life mobility behaviours that have been gathered through a survey in Beirut and to test different future scenarios, which may help the local authorities to target information campaigns.

cs.MA↗