arXiv subjects

Juncheng Bu

Publications and source records attributed to Juncheng Bu.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

ATM: Why Latent World Models Can Fail to Plan

Latent world models can achieve accurate latent prediction yet still differ substantially in downstream planning performance. We argue that a key source of this discrepancy lies in the structure of action-induced latent transitions. We formalize action-identifiability through Bayes inverse risk, characterizing how much uncertainty about an action remains after observing the transition it induces. Model-predicted transitions can become highly self-decodable while encoding a domain-specific action relationship that fails to transfer to real environment transitions. We characterize this mismatch through cross-domain inverse transfer, instantiated as the Action-Consistency Transfer Matrix (ATM), a $2\times2$ inverse-risk matrix over real and predicted transition domains. Across TwoRoom, PushT, and OGBench-Cube, true-transition action-identifiability tracks downstream planning substantially better than standard prediction loss, while the full ATM reveals highly self-decodable yet cross-domain-inconsistent predicted transitions. Controlled interventions on the two domains further produce distinct transition structures and planning outcomes, supporting this decomposition. The same diagnostics also support lightweight model screening, reaching 98.81\% pairwise ranking accuracy for candidates separated by more than 5\% success.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Effective Does Not Mean Useful: Conditional Functional Substitutability for Redundancy and Scaling in Transformers

Modern neural networks scale predictably, yet the mechanisms behind these regularities remain unclear. Neural redundancy is typically characterized by component importance or representational similarity, both indirect proxies. We view redundancy as an input-conditioned, dynamic relation: intermediate computational states are functionally redundant when they induce similar downstream responses. We introduce Conditional Functional Substitutability (CFS) to directly characterize such functional substitution. CFS exposes functional relations and reduction potential missed by conventional importance- and similarity-based measures. Across modalities and Transformer families, CFS reveals systematic functional reorganization with scale. Controlled scaling further shows that performance gains need not track growth in substitutability, while fixed-capacity models with more independent functional structure perform better, providing a functional account of diminishing returns. Predicted CFS further enables dynamic computation with a better performance--computation trade-off than importance-based component selection, suggesting new directions for redundancy-aware computation and more efficient model scaling.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

The Alpha Illusion: Reported Alpha from LLM Trading Agents Should Not Be Treated as Deployment Evidence

End-to-end LLM trading agents have moved quickly from research curiosity to a small ecosystem of named systems, including FinCon, FinMem, TradingAgents, FinAgent, QuantAgent, and FLAG-Trader. Several of these report headline Sharpe ratios that would be material if read at face value on a deployment desk, and associated benchmarks such as FinBen report trading-task Sharpe statistics in the same range. The gap between architecture research and deployment claim has been crossed too freely on both sides of the academia--industry divide. We take a position on that gap: reported alpha from end-to-end LLM trading agents should not be treated as deployment evidence. Before such returns can support claims of deployable trading capability, they must survive structural validity tests for temporal integrity, real-world frictions, counterfactual robustness, predictive calibration, numerical execution, and multi-agent disaggregation. Current public evidence cannot yet distinguish robust predictive ability from temporal contamination, unmodeled frictions, short-window Sharpe uncertainty, narrative fitting, and parametric priors. The problem is not only evaluative but structural. Language confidence is not tradable probability, narrative reasoning is not numerical execution, and model priors may become undisclosed implicit factor exposures. We contribute a minimum reporting protocol suite, P1--P6, with tiered applicability by claim strength, and a conservative modular alternative that uses LLMs as auditable information interfaces upstream of independent calibration, risk, and execution modules. Code and reproduction harness: \url{https://github.com/hj1650782738/Trading}.

cs.CE↗