arXiv subjects

Junqiang Song

Publications and source records attributed to Junqiang Song.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

OceanLight: Efficient Global Ocean Forecasting via Geometry-Adaptive Unstructured Mesh Representation

Reliable global ocean forecasting is critical for climate monitoring, marine navigation, and extreme event early warning. Physics-based ocean forecasting models impose prohibitive computational costs, while existing deep learning approaches predominantly rely on structured-grid architectures, incurring unnecessary computation on masked land cells and enforcing uniform resolution across dynamically heterogeneous ocean regions regardless of local flow complexity. Here we present OceanLight, an efficient global ocean forecasting framework innovatively combining geometry-adaptive unstructured mesh tokenization with a graph neural network (GNN) backbone. OceanLight achieves pointwise forecast accuracy and kinetic energy spectral fidelity exceeding both operational numerical analyses and state-of-the-art AI-based models, while surpassing all AI-based ocean models in geostrophic balance consistency. Furthermore, OceanLight demonstrates reliable mesoscale eddy representation, capturing coherent ocean structures beyond pointwise statistical optimization. These capabilities are delivered with a 62% reduction in GPU memory consumption and 70\% reduction in FLOPs relative to structured-grid baselines. Our unstructured mesh representation establishes a generalizable paradigm for scalable data-driven oceanography.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Diffusion Models Bridge Deep Learning and Physics in ENSO Forecasting

Accurate long-range forecasting of the El \Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for global climate prediction and disaster risk management. Yet, limited understanding of ENSO's physical mechanisms constrains both numerical and deep learning approaches, which often struggle to balance predictive accuracy with physical interpretability. Here, we introduce a data driven model for ENSO prediction based on conditional diffusion model. By constructing a probabilistic mapping from historical to future states using higher-order Markov chain, our model explicitly quantifies intrinsic uncertainty. The approach achieves extending lead times of state-of-the-art methods, resolving early development signals of the spring predictability barrier, and faithfully reproducing the spatiotemporal evolution of historical extreme events. The most striking implication is that our analysis reveals that the reverse diffusion process inherently encodes the classical recharge-discharge mechanism, with its operational dynamics exhibiting remarkable consistency with the governing principles of the van der Pol oscillator equation. These findings establish diffusion models as a new paradigm for ENSO forecasting, offering not only superior probabilistic skill but also a physically grounded theoretical framework that bridges data-driven prediction with deterministic dynamical systems, thereby advancing the study of complex geophysical processes.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

XiChen: A global weather observation-to-forecast machine learning system via four-dimensional variational gradient-guided flexible assimilation

Machine Learning (ML) has shown great promise in revolutionizing weather forecasting, yet most ML systems still rely on initial conditions generated by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. End-to-end ML models aim to eliminate this dependency, but they often rely on observation-specific encoders and require redesign or retraining when observation sources change, thereby limiting their operational robustness. Here, we introduce XiChen, a global weather observation-to-forecast ML system via four-dimensional variational (4DVar) gradient-guided flexible assimilation. We demonstrate that the gradient of the 4DVar cost function serves as a physically grounded interface that maps heterogeneous observations into a common state space. This novel formulation enables XiChen to flexibly assimilate diverse conventional and raw satellite observations while preserving physical consistency. Experiments show that the system achieves forecasting metrics competitive with operational NWP systems. This work provides a practical and physically consistent route toward operational ML-based global weather forecasting systems with heterogeneous and evolving observations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Long-Term Prediction Accuracy Improvement of Data-Driven Medium-Range Global Weather Forecast

Long-term stability stands as a crucial requirement in data-driven medium-range global weather forecasting. Spectral bias is recognized as the primary contributor to instabilities, as data-driven methods difficult to learn small-scale dynamics. In this paper, we reveal that the universal mechanism for these instabilities is not only related to spectral bias but also to distortions brought by processing spherical data using conventional convolution. These distortions lead to a rapid amplification of errors over successive long-term iterations, resulting in a significant decline in forecast accuracy. To address this issue, a universal neural operator called the Spherical Harmonic Neural Operator (SHNO) is introduced to improve long-term iterative forecasts. SHNO uses the spherical harmonic basis to mitigate distortions for spherical data and uses gated residual spectral attention (GRSA) to correct spectral bias caused by spurious correlations across different scales. The effectiveness and merit of the proposed method have been validated through its application for spherical Shallow Water Equations (SWEs) and medium-range global weather forecasting. Our findings highlight the benefits and potential of SHNO to improve the accuracy of long-term prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

XiHe: A Data-Driven Model for Global Ocean Eddy-Resolving Forecasting

The leading operational Global Ocean Forecasting Systems (GOFSs) use physics-driven numerical forecasting models that solve the partial differential equations with expensive computation. Recently, specifically in atmosphere weather forecasting, data-driven models have demonstrated significant potential for speeding up environmental forecasting by orders of magnitude, but there is still no data-driven GOFS that matches the forecasting accuracy of the numerical GOFSs. In this paper, we propose the first data-driven 1/12{\deg} resolution global ocean eddy-resolving forecasting model named XiHe, which is established from the 25-year France Mercator Ocean International's daily GLORYS12 reanalysis data. XiHe is a hierarchical transformer-based framework coupled with two special designs. One is the land-ocean mask mechanism for focusing exclusively on the global ocean circulation. The other is the ocean-specific block for effectively capturing both local ocean information and global teleconnection. Extensive experiments are conducted under satellite observations, in situ observations, and the IV-TT Class 4 evaluation framework of the world's leading operational GOFSs from January 2019 to December 2020. The results demonstrate that XiHe achieves stronger forecast performance in all testing variables than existing leading operational numerical GOFSs including Mercator Ocean Physical SYstem (PSY4), Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS), BLUElinK OceanMAPS (BLK), and Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM). Particularly, the accuracy of ocean current forecasting of XiHe out to 60 days is even better than that of PSY4 in just 10 days. Additionally, XiHe is able to forecast the large-scale circulation and the mesoscale eddies. Furthermore, it can make a 10-day forecast in only 0.35 seconds, which accelerates the forecast speed by thousands of times compared to the traditional numerical GOFSs.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Bayesian geoacoustic inversion using mixture density network

Bayesian geoacoustic inversion problems are conventionally solved by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods or its variants, which are computationally expensive. This paper extends the classic Bayesian geoacoustic inversion framework by deriving important geoacoustic statistics of Bayesian geoacoustic inversion from the multidimensional posterior probability density (PPD) using the mixture density network (MDN) theory. These statistics make it convenient to train the network directly on the whole parameter space and get the multidimensional PPD of model parameters. The present approach provides a much more efficient way to solve geoacoustic inversion problems in Bayesian inference framework. The network is trained on a simulated dataset of surface-wave dispersion curves with shear-wave velocities as labels and tested on both synthetic and real data cases. The results show that the network gives reliable predictions and has good generalization performance on unseen data. Once trained, the network can rapidly (within seconds) give a fully probabilistic solution which is comparable to Monte Carlo methods. It provides an promising approach for real-time inversion.

stat.ML↗