arXiv subjects

Justin Le Louëdec

Publications and source records attributed to Justin Le Louëdec.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Towards a Fully Automated Pipeline for Short-Term Forecasting of In Situ Coronal Mass Ejection Magnetic Field Structure

We present an automated pipeline for operational short-term forecasting of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic field structure at L1, coupling arrival time prediction, in situ detection, and iterative flux rope reconstruction, following near-real-time remote-sensing CME identification. The system is triggered by new entries in the CCMC DONKI database and first applies the drag-based ELEvo model to determine whether an Earth impact is expected and estimate arrival time. This estimate defines a temporal window constraining the search for CME signatures in real-time L1 in situ solar wind data, where the magnetic obstacle (MO) is automatically detected using the deep learning model ARCANE. Upon MO onset, iterative reconstructions with the semi-empirical flux rope model 3DCORE are performed, using a Monte Carlo fitting scheme, producing continuously updated forecasts of the remaining magnetic field profile. We evaluate the pipeline using 3870 archived DONKI entries and archived NOAA real-time in situ data from 2013-2025, assessing forecast performance at different stages of MO observation. For 61 events with an associated ground-truth counterpart in the ICMECAT catalog, forecasts based on initial MO data already achieve performance comparable to full-event reconstructions. Typical errors are ~5 hours in timing of magnetic field extrema and ~10 nT in field strength metrics, with limited systematic improvement as more of the event is observed. Results show substantial event variability and systematic underestimation of extrema, indicating deviations from ideal flux rope assumptions. These findings demonstrate the potential of fully autonomous real-time forecasting while highlighting limitations imposed by event complexity and model representational capacity.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Predicting CME Arrivals with Heliospheric Imagers from L5: A Data Assimilation Approach

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission has laid a foundation for advancing real-time space weather forecasting by enabling the evaluation of heliospheric imager (HI) data for predicting coronal mass ejection (CME) arrivals at Earth. This study employs the ELEvoHI model to assess how incorporating STEREO/HI data from the Lagrange 5 (L5) perspective can enhance prediction accuracy for CME arrival times and speeds. Our investigation, preparing for the upcoming ESA Vigil mission, explores whether the progressive incorporation of HI data in real-time enhances forecasting accuracy. The role of human tracking variability is evaluated by comparing predictions based on observations by three different scientists, highlighting the influence of manual biases on forecasting outcomes. Furthermore, the study examines the efficacy of deriving CME propagation directions using HI-specific methods versus coronagraph-based techniques, emphasising the trade-offs in prediction accuracy. Our results demonstrate the potential of HI data to significantly improve operational space weather forecasting when integrated with other observational platforms, especially when HI data from beyond 35° elongation are used. These findings pave the way for optimising real-time prediction methodologies, providing valuable groundwork for the forthcoming Vigil mission and enhancing preparedness for CME-driven space weather events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Beacon2Science: Enhancing STEREO/HI beacon data with machine learning for efficient CME tracking

Observing and forecasting coronal mass ejections (CME) in real-time is crucial due to the strong geomagnetic storms they can generate that can have a potentially damaging effect, for example, on satellites and electrical devices. With its near-real-time availability, STEREO/HI beacon data is the perfect candidate for early forecasting of CMEs. However, previous work concluded that CME arrival prediction based on beacon data could not achieve the same accuracy as with high-resolution science data due to data gaps and lower quality. We present our novel machine-learning pipeline entitled ``Beacon2Science'', bridging the gap between beacon and science data to improve CME tracking. Through this pipeline, we first enhance the quality (signal-to-noise ratio and spatial resolution) of beacon data. We then increase the time resolution of enhanced beacon images through learned interpolation to match science data's 40-minute resolution. We maximize information coherence between consecutive frames with adapted model architecture and loss functions through the different steps. The improved beacon images are comparable to science data, showing better CME visibility than the original beacon data. Furthermore, we compare CMEs tracked in beacon, enhanced beacon, and science images. The tracks extracted from enhanced beacon data are closer to those from science images, with a mean average error of $\sim 0.5 ^\circ$ of elongation compared to $1^\circ$ with original beacon data. The work presented in this paper paves the way for its application to forthcoming missions such as Vigil and PUNCH.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2025

Solar Transient Recognition Using Deep Learning (STRUDL) for heliospheric imager data

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are space weather phenomena capable of causing significant disruptions to both space- and ground-based infrastructure. The timely and accurate detection and prediction of CMEs is a crucial steps towards implementing strategies to minimize the impacts of such events. CMEs are commonly observed using coronagraphs and heliospheric imagers (HIs), with some forecasting methods relying on manually tracking CMEs across successive images in order to provide an estimate of their arrival time and speed. This process is time-consuming and results may exhibiting considerable interpersonal variation. We investigate the application of machine learning (ML) techniques to the problem of automated CME detection, focusing on data from the HI instruments aboard the STEREO spacecraft. HI data facilitates the tracking of CMEs through interplanetary space, providing valuable information on their evolution. Building on advances in image segmentation, we present the Solar Transient Recognition Using Deep Learning (STRUDL) model. STRUDL is designed to automatically detect and segment CME fronts in HI data. We address the challenges inherent to this task and evaluate the model's performance across a range of solar activity conditions. To complement segmentation, we implement a basic tracking algorithm that links CME detections across successive frames, thus allowing us to automatically generate time-distance profiles. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of applying ML-based segmentation techniques to HI data, while highlighting areas for future improvement, particularly regarding the accurate segmentation and tracking of faint and interacting CMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

First observations of a geomagnetic superstorm with a sub-L1 monitor

Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is currently an unsolved problem. CMEs, responsible for the largest values of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, are the key driver of intense and extreme geomagnetic activity. Observations of southward interplanetary magnetic fields are currently only accessible directly through in situ measurements by spacecraft in the solar wind. On 10-12 May 2024, the strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003 took place, caused by five interacting CMEs. We clarify the relationship between the CMEs, their solar source regions, and the resulting signatures at the Sun-Earth L1 point observed by the ACE spacecraft at 1.00 AU. The STEREO-A spacecraft was situated at 0.956 AU and 12.6° west of Earth during the event, serving as a fortuitous sub-L1 monitor providing interplanetary magnetic field measurements of the solar wind. We demonstrate an extension of the prediction lead time, as the shock was observed 2.57 hours earlier at STEREO-A than at L1, consistent with the measured shock speed at L1, 710 km/s, and the radial distance of 0.04 AU. By deriving the geomagnetic indices based on the STEREO-A beacon data, we show that the strength of the geomagnetic storm would have been decently forecasted, with the modeled minimum SYM-H=-478.5 nT, underestimating the observed minimum by only 8%. Our study sets an unprecedented benchmark for future mission design using upstream monitoring for space weather prediction.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

Understanding the effects of spacecraft trajectories through solar coronal mass ejection flux ropes using 3DCOREweb

This study investigates the impact of spacecraft positioning and trajectory on in situ signatures of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Employing the 3DCORE model, a 3D flux rope model that can generate in situ profiles for any given point in space and time, we conduct forward modeling to analyze such signatures for various latitudinal and longitudinal positions, with respect to the flux rope apex, at 0.8~au. Using this approach, we explore the appearance of the resulting in situ profiles for different flux rope types, with different handedness and inclination angles, for both high and low twist CMEs. Our findings reveal that CMEs exhibit distinct differences in signatures between apex hits and flank encounters, with the latter displaying elongated profiles with reduced rotation. However, constant, non-rotating in situ signatures are only observed for flank encounters of low twist CMEs, suggesting the existence of untwisted magnetic field lines within CME legs. Additionally, our study confirms the unambiguous appearance of different flux rope types in in situ signatures, contributing to the broader understanding and interpretation of observational data. Given the model assumptions, this may refute trajectory effects to be the cause for mismatching flux rope types as identified in solar signatures. While acknowledging limitations inherent in our model, such as the assumption of constant twist and non-deformable torus-like shape, we still draw relevant conclusions within the context of global magnetic field structures of CMEs and the potential for distinguishing flux rope types based on in situ observations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Key Point-based Orientation Estimation of Strawberries for Robotic Fruit Picking

Selective robotic harvesting is a promising technological solution to address labour shortages which are affecting modern agriculture in many parts of the world. For an accurate and efficient picking process, a robotic harvester requires the precise location and orientation of the fruit to effectively plan the trajectory of the end effector. The current methods for estimating fruit orientation employ either complete 3D information which typically requires registration from multiple views or rely on fully-supervised learning techniques, which require difficult-to-obtain manual annotation of the reference orientation. In this paper, we introduce a novel key-point-based fruit orientation estimation method allowing for the prediction of 3D orientation from 2D images directly. The proposed technique can work without full 3D orientation annotations but can also exploit such information for improved accuracy. We evaluate our work on two separate datasets of strawberry images obtained from real-world data collection scenarios. Our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance with an average error as low as $8^{\circ}$, improving predictions by $\sim30\%$ compared to previous work presented in~\cite{wagner2021efficient}. Furthermore, our method is suited for real-time robotic applications with fast inference times of $\sim30$ms.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Gaussian map predictions for 3D surface feature localisation and counting

In this paper, we propose to employ a Gaussian map representation to estimate precise location and count of 3D surface features, addressing the limitations of state-of-the-art methods based on density estimation which struggle in presence of local disturbances. Gaussian maps indicate probable object location and can be generated directly from keypoint annotations avoiding laborious and costly per-pixel annotations. We apply this method to the 3D spheroidal class of objects which can be projected into 2D shape representation enabling efficient processing by a neural network GNet, an improved UNet architecture, which generates the likely locations of surface features and their precise count. We demonstrate a practical use of this technique for counting strawberry achenes which is used as a fruit quality measure in phenotyping applications. The results of training the proposed system on several hundreds of 3D scans of strawberries from a publicly available dataset demonstrate the accuracy and precision of the system which outperforms the state-of-the-art density-based methods for this application.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

3D shape sensing and deep learning-based segmentation of strawberries

Automation and robotisation of the agricultural sector are seen as a viable solution to socio-economic challenges faced by this industry. This technology often relies on intelligent perception systems providing information about crops, plants and the entire environment. The challenges faced by traditional 2D vision systems can be addressed by modern 3D vision systems which enable straightforward localisation of objects, size and shape estimation, or handling of occlusions. So far, the use of 3D sensing was mainly limited to indoor or structured environments. In this paper, we evaluate modern sensing technologies including stereo and time-of-flight cameras for 3D perception of shape in agriculture and study their usability for segmenting out soft fruit from background based on their shape. To that end, we propose a novel 3D deep neural network which exploits the organised nature of information originating from the camera-based 3D sensors. We demonstrate the superior performance and efficiency of the proposed architecture compared to the state-of-the-art 3D networks. Through a simulated study, we also show the potential of the 3D sensing paradigm for object segmentation in agriculture and provide insights and analysis of what shape quality is needed and expected for further analysis of crops. The results of this work should encourage researchers and companies to develop more accurate and robust 3D sensing technologies to assure their wider adoption in practical agricultural applications.

cs.CV↗