arXiv subjects

Justin Vega

Publications and source records attributed to Justin Vega.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Ghosts of eruptions past: Searching for historical Galactic supernovae using variable thermal dust echoes and machine learning

The Galactic core-collapse supernova (SN) rate is estimated at $\approx 1-3$ per century; however, no optically visible SN has been discovered in the past 400 years. Although records of the last optically detected SN (Cassiopeia A) are debated, it is revealed today via its bright, variable mid-infrared (MIR) dust echoes -- offering the possibility of identifying dust-obscured, missed events via their dust echoes. We present the first all-sky, untargeted search for thermal dust echoes of luminous Galactic transients using difference imaging on 12 years of time-resolved NEOWISE co-adds (spanning $2009-2022$) followed by statistical detection of variable extended sources. We use echo features around Cas A, together with archival catalogs to train a convolutional neural network to classify transient candidates as dust echoes, point sources, artifacts, and high proper motion stars. Our model achieves $\approx 94$% accuracy in distinguishing echoes from other variable sources. Applying the classifier to $\approx 11$ million transient candidates, we search for spatial over-densities of echoes across the Galactic plane. We find that Cas A is the only region exhibiting echoes at the WISE sensitivity threshold of $W2$ surface brightness of $\approx 20$ Vega mag arcsec$^{-2}$ -- reflecting its unique combination of young age and luminous shock breakout. We present the largest catalog of time-resolved echo positions of Cas A (20477 within 10$^\circ$) that are being used for studies of the surrounding interstellar medium with the James Webb Space Telescope. Our results lay the groundwork for the imminent Roman space telescope surveys -- which will achieve $\approx 100\times$ higher sensitivity and $\approx 30\times$ better spatial resolution at wavelengths of $\lesssim 2.5\,\mu$m.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Quantifying the Contamination of TESS Ecliptic-Plane Light Curves by Minor Planets

Though missions devoted to time series photometry focus primarily on targets far beyond the solar system, their observations can be contaminated by foreground minor planets, especially near the ecliptic plane where solar system objects are most prevalent. Crucially, depending on one's choice of data reduction/background estimation algorithm, these objects can induce both apparent brightening and/or dimming events in processed light curves. To quantify the impact of these objects on archived TESS light curves, we used N-body integrations of all currently known minor planets to postdict all 600,000+ of their interactions with stars selected for high-cadence observations during TESS ecliptic plane sectors. We then created mock images of these moving sources and performed simple aperture photometry using the same target and background apertures used in SPOC processing. Our resulting 10,000+ target-specific light curves, which faithfully model the time-dependent positions and magnitudes of the actual solar system objects that approached each target, reveal that $>95\%$ of high-cadence ecliptic plane targets experience a minor planet crossing within 1 TESS pixel of the source. Additionally, 50% of all $T>13$ mag targets experience at least one instantaneous moment where the contaminating flux from minor planets exceeds 1% of the target flux. We discuss these population-level results and others, and highlight several case studies of bright flybys.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

A JWST Transit of a Jupiter Analog I: Constraints on the Oblateness of Kepler-167e

In October 2024 JWST observed a transit of Kepler-167e, a Jupiter-analog planet on a 1000+ day orbit. These observations, recorded over a long baseline of nearly 60 hours, were designed to search for signatures of planetary oblateness and/or exomoons comparable to Ganymede. In this first in a series of studies analyzing these data we report on constraints on Kepler-167e's oblateness. We explored a large grid of data reduction pipelines and modeling choices, including a new entirely independent reduction pipeline ("katahdin") and two new treatments for limb darkening. We find that under a Bayesian model comparison framework the data are fit equally well by both spherical and oblate planet models, and that our ability to constrain the oblateness is negatively impacted by the influence of exposure-long trends. Using the most conservative of our posteriors, we place a 95% upper bound on the projected oblateness of $f<0.097$, which corresponds to a rotation period of $P\geq7.11$ hours if the planet's spin axis is aligned with the sky plane. We note, however, that the final bound depends on the choice of reduction pipeline and systematics model, and that our suite of end-to-end analyses produced bounds as low as $f<0.065$ at 95%. We conclude that leveraging JWST to make tighter constraints on planetary oblateness will require further investigation into mitigating exposure-long trends and correlated noise.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

squishyplanet: Modeling Transits of Non-spherical Exoplanets in JAX

While astronomers often assume that exoplanets are perfect spheres when analyzing observations, the subset of these distant worlds that are subject to strong tidal forces and/or rapid rotations are expected to be distinctly ellipsoidal or even triaxial. Since a planet's response to these forces is determined in part by its interior structure, measurements of an exoplanet's deviations from spherical symmetry can lead to powerful insights into its composition and surrounding environment. These shape deformations will imprint themselves on a planet's phase curve and transit lightcurve and cause small (1s-100s of parts per million) deviations from their spherical-planet counterparts. Until recently, these deviations were undetectable in typical real-world datasets due to limitations in photometric precision. Now, however, current and soon-to-come-online facilities such as JWST will routinely deliver observations that warrant the consideration of more complex models. To this end we present squishyplanet, a JAX-based Python package that implements an extension of the polynomial limb-darkened transit model presented in Agol et al. 2020 to non-spherical (triaxial) planets, as well as routines for modeling reflection and emission phase curves.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

Accretion Flow Morphology in Numerical Simulations of Black Holes from the ngEHT Model Library: The Impact of Radiation Physics

In the past few years, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has provided the first-ever event horizon-scale images of the supermassive black holes (BHs) (M87*) and Sagittarius A$^*$ (Sgr A*). The next-generation EHT project is an extension of the EHT array that promises larger angular resolution and higher sensitivity to the dim, extended flux around the central ring-like structure, possibly connecting the accretion flow and the jet. The ngEHT Analysis Challenges aim to understand the science extractability from synthetic images and movies to inform the ngEHT array design and analysis algorithm development. In this work, we compare the accretion flow structure and dynamics in numerical fluid simulations that specifically target M87* and Sgr A*, and were used to construct the source models in the challenge set. We consider (1) a steady-state axisymmetric radiatively inefficient accretion flow model with a time-dependent shearing hotspot, (2) two time-dependent single fluid general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations from the H-AMR code, (3) a two-temperature GRMHD simulation from the BHAC code, and (4) a two-temperature radiative GRMHD simulation from the KORAL code. We find that the different models exhibit remarkably similar temporal and spatial properties, except for the electron temperature, since radiative losses substantially cool down electrons near the BH and the jet sheath, signaling the importance of radiative cooling even for slowly accreting BHs such as M87*. We restrict ourselves to standard torus accretion flows, and leave larger explorations of alternate accretion models to future work.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

The ngEHT Analysis Challenges

The next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) will be a significant enhancement of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array, with $\sim 10$ new antennas and instrumental upgrades of existing antennas. The increased $uv$-coverage, sensitivity, and frequency coverage allow a wide range of new science opportunities to be explored. The ngEHT Analysis Challenges have been launched to inform development of the ngEHT array design, science objectives, and analysis pathways. For each challenge, synthetic EHT and ngEHT datasets are generated from theoretical source models and released to the challenge participants, who analyze the datasets using image reconstruction and other methods. The submitted analysis results are evaluated with quantitative metrics. In this work, we report on the first two ngEHT Analysis Challenges. These have focused on static and dynamical models of M87* and Sgr A*, and shown that high-quality movies of the extended jet structure of M87* and near-horizon hourly timescale variability of Sgr A* can be reconstructed by the reference ngEHT array in realistic observing conditions, using current analysis algorithms. We identify areas where there is still room for improvement of these algorithms and analysis strategies. Other science cases and arrays will be explored in future challenges.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

The Architecture of the V892 Tau System: the Binary and its Circumbinary Disk

We present high resolution millimeter continuum and CO line observations for the circumbinary disk around V892 Tau to constrain the stellar and disk properties. The total mass of the two near-equal-mass A stars is estimated to be $6.0\pm0.2\,M_{\odot}$ based on our models of the Keplerian-dominated gas disk rotation. The detection of strong ionized gas emission associated with the two stars at 8 mm, when combined with previous astrometric measurements in the near-infrared, provides an updated view of the binary orbit with $a=7.1\pm0.1$ au, $e=0.27\pm0.1$, and $P=7.7\pm0.2$ yr, which is about half of a previously reported orbital period. The binary orbital plane is proposed to be near coplanar to the circumbinary disk plane (with a mutual inclination of only $Δ=8\pm4.2$ deg; another solution with $Δ=113$ deg is less likely given the short re-alignment timescale). An asymmetric dust disk ring peaking at a radius of 0.''2 is detected at 1.3 mm and its fainter counterparts are also detected at the longer 8 and 9.8 mm. The CO gas disk, though dominated by Keplerian rotation, presents a mild inner and outer disk misalignment, such that the inner disk to the SW and outer disk to the NE appear brighter than their counterparts at the opposite disk sides. The radial extension of the disk, its asymmetric dust ring, and the presence of a disk warp could all be explained by the interaction between the eccentric binary and the circumbinary disk, which we assume were formed with non-zero mutual inclination. Some tentatively detected gas spirals in the outer disk are likely produced by interactions with the low mass tertiary component located 4'' to the northeast. Our analyses demonstrate the promising usage of V892 Tau as an excellent benchmark system to study the details of binary--disk interactions.

astro-ph.EP↗