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K Shuvo Bakar

Publications and source records attributed to K Shuvo Bakar.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Generalized Bayesian Inference using the Bayesian Bootstrap for Survival Models

Survival inference often requires uncertainty quantification under censoring and limited sample sizes, while prior information may be available but difficult to incorporate without specifying a full likelihood. Likelihood-based Bayesian survival methods provide prior-informed inference but may be sensitive to distributional assumptions and computationally demanding for complex survival models. The Bayesian bootstrap provides a likelihood-free, nonparametric approach to uncertainty quantification, but by itself does not provide a general mechanism for incorporating priors on model parameters. We propose a general Bayesian method for survival models that combines the generalized Bayesian (Gibbs) updating with Bayesian bootstrap. The Bayesian bootstrap generates a distribution over a target survival estimator through Dirichlet weights, while generalized Bayesian updating incorporates parameter-specific prior information through a loss function. The resulting posterior provides a flexible alternative to likelihood-based Bayesian inference and can be applied to a broad class of survival estimators. We develop the method for the Cox proportional hazards model and obtain posterior inference for regression coefficients and hazard ratios. Simulation studies demonstrate uncertainty quantification and prior-data learning across varying sample sizes. An application to right-censored survival data illustrates its practical utility. The methodology is implemented in the open-source \texttt{R} package \texttt{BayesBoots}.

stat.ME↗

Arctic teleconnection on climate and ozone pollution in the polar jet stream path of eastern US

Arctic sea-ice loss is a defining feature of climate change and offers insight into its impact on mid-latitude air quality. Here, we investigate how variability in Arctic sea-ice extent (ASI) affects ground-level ozone ($O_3$) across eastern US states through physically and chemically mediated atmospheric pathways. Using observations and causal-inference methods grounded in atmospheric dynamics, we show that ASI drives wintertime ozone variability primarily via indirect meteorological mechanisms, including changes in humidity, temperature, and atmospheric circulation along the polar and subtropical jet streams. Inland regions exhibit the strongest sensitivity, while coastal areas are modulated by marine boundary-layer processes. Seasonal contrasts reveal that Arctic-driven dynamics suppress ozone in winter but can enhance accumulation under certain summer conditions. These findings highlight the importance of Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections in shaping regional air quality and highlight the need to integrate large-scale climate processes into ozone management and climate adaptation strategies.

physics.ao-ph↗

Understanding the complex dynamics of climate change in south-west Australia using Machine Learning

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to indicate the meteorological drought situation - a negative (or positive) value of SPI would imply a dry (or wet) condition in a region over a period. The climate system is an excellent example of a complex system since there is an interplay and inter-relation of several climate variables. It is not always easy to identify the factors that may influence the SPI, or their inter-relations (including feedback loops). Here, we aim to study the complex dynamics that SPI has with the SST, NINO 3.4 and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), using a machine learning approach. Our findings are: (i) IOD was negatively correlated to SPI till 2008; (ii) until 2004, SST was negatively correlated with SPI; (iii) from 2005 to 2014, the SST had swung between negative and positive correlations; (iv) since 2014, we observed that the regression coefficient ($δ$) corresponding to SST has always been positive; (v) the SST has an upward trend, and the positive upward trend of $δ$ implied that SPI has been positively correlated with SST in recent years; and finally, (vi) the current value of SPI has a significant positive correlation with a past SPI value with a periodicity of about 7.5 years. Examining the complex dynamics, we used a statistical machine learning approach to construct an inferential network of these climate variables, which revealed that SST and NINO 3.4 directly couples with SPI, whereas IOD indirectly couples with SPI through SST and NINO 3.4. The system also indicated that Nino 3.4 has a significant negative effect on SPI. Interestingly, there seems to be a structural change in the complex dynamics of the four climate variables, some time in 2008. Though a simple 12-month moving average of SPI has a negative trend towards drought, the complex dynamics of SPI with other climate variables indicate a wet season for western Australia.

physics.data-an↗