arXiv subjects

K. E. Saavik Ford

Publications and source records attributed to K. E. Saavik Ford.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Extreme AGN Variability in WISE: Powerful Flares and Candidate Tidal Disruption Events in AGN

We present first results from a systematic study of extreme mid-infrared variability of active galaxies across the $>10$-year baseline of the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mission. WISE, which observed the full sky with a six-month cadence, is sensitive to transient events in both unobscured and obscured galaxies. This paper focuses on extreme flares in active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Previous studies identified flares such as tidal disruption events (TDEs) in inactive galaxies, typically from optical or X-ray surveys. However, flares are also expected in AGN and optical/X-ray searches are insensitive to events in dust-enshrouded AGN. In this pilot study, we present flares in two AGN identified from extreme mid-infrared color variability. One flare was also detected at optical wavelengths. While both events showed broadened H$α$ emission several years after the flare peak, more recent spectroscopy reveals continued broadened emission only from the source with the optical flare. After considering several potential physical causes of the flares, including supernovae and micro-lensing, we suggest both events are TDEs in AGN. Intriguingly, the optical flare decays much faster than the expected $t^{-5/3}$ fallback rate expected for TDEs in quiescent galaxies, suggesting either a partial disruption or the tidal disruption of a star by an intermediate mass black hole embedded in the accretion disk of an AGN. This work demonstrates the power of WISE to identify the full census of TDEs, including events in dust-obscured AGN. Mid-infrared data probes the nature of the event and provides a bolometric measure of the flare energetics.

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arXiv2026

Orbital Migration of Interacting Stellar Mass Black Holes in Disks around Supermassive Black Holes. III. Mass Distribution of Hierarchical Mergers

Active galactic nucleus (AGN) disks are a promising location for the formation of binary black holes (BBHs) that will merge on relatively short timescales and be detected by LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK). To compare the mass function (MF) of black holes (BHs) undergoing hierarchical mergers in AGN disks to the inferred MFs from LVK observations, we perform 360 simulations with an N-body code augmented to include an analytic model for migration torques and other gas forces. We focus on the region surrounding migration traps in AGN disks where migration torques cancel out and BHs converge. We find that regardless of changes in the initial MF and BBH merger criteria, frequent mergers deplete the number of BHs with masses $\lesssim 10$~$M_\odot$ and fill the upper mass gap with a roughly uniform distribution from 40--100~$M_\odot$, with a slight overabundance around ${\approx}70~M_\odot$ from resonant orbiters. We also find an average merger rate of $\sim 6$~Gpc$^{-3}$~yr$^{-1}$ for migration-trap-aided BBH mergers in our AGN disk model. $\sim 40\%$ of these mergers have uneven mass ratios and 16\% have a primary mass $\in[50-100]~M_\odot$. Therefore, AGN disks could easily be the source of BBH mergers observed by LVK that are difficult to produce through traditional stellar evolution channels. Our simulations also form a separate higher-mass intermediate mass black hole (IMBH) population $>200~M_\odot$ after $\sim 2$~Myr. Future gravitational wave detectors can use observations of this IMBH population to constrain models of AGN accretion disks.

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arXiv2026

McFACTS. IV. Electromagnetic Counterparts to AGN-disk-embedded Binary Black Hole Mergers

The accretion disks of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are promising environments for producing binary black hole (BBH) mergers, which have been detected via gravitational waves (GWs) with the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) GW detector network. BBH mergers embedded in AGN disks are unique among GW formation channels in their generic ability to produce electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, via interactions between the merger remnant and the surrounding disk gas (though these are not always observable). While such mergers represent valuable multimessenger sources, the lack of predictive statistical models in existing literature currently limits our ability to select possible EM counterparts with GW detections in archival data and in real time using time-domain surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility or LSST. Here we employ the Monte Carlo For AGN Channel Testing and Simulation code (McFACTS, https://www.github.com/mcfacts/mcfacts) to predict the bolometric luminosities of jets and shocks associated with LVK-detectable BBH merger remnants in AGN disks. McFACTS predicts the distribution of GW observables for an underlying black hole population and disk model. In this work we present a new capability that simultaneously generates the distribution of bolometric EM luminosities corresponding to these predicted GW detections. Our results are consistent with current observational surveys and indicate that (i) migration in dense, Sirko-Goodman-like disks preferentially produces EM counterparts from high-mass ($\mathscr{M} > 40M_{\odot}$), high-spin remnants across multiple merger generations and (ii) lower chirp mass mergers are more likely to contribute observable counterparts and with shorter emission breakout times in less dense, Thompson-Quataert-Murray-like disks.

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arXiv2026

Active Galactic Nucleus Tori: Potential Birthplace to Millions of Planets

The outer regions of AGN disks have temperatures similar to those of circumstellar disks, permitting dust condensation. Therefore, planet formation and growth could be active in these dust tori through similar mechanisms. We aim at quantifying the parameter space for the occurrence of streaming instability, and its outcomes in terms of the masses of the objects formed, their total number, and their continued growth via pebble accretion. We use a a recently proposed disk model with strong magnetization to keep the disk gravitationally stable. We find that the dust grain sizes required for streaming instability are easily attained through coagulation; the dust filaments it produces can contain solar masses, collapsing into tens of millions of planetesimals ranging from Earth to super-Jupiter masses. These planets are usually born in the 3D Bondi regime of pebble accretion, and have mass-doubling times from 10^3 to 10^7 yrs, though 3D Hill and geometric accretion are also realized. Gas accretion occurs concurrently, and crossover mass can be attained while still in the planetary mass range. As a result, vigorous accretion can occur, leading to objects with stellar masses - defining a core accretion channel for star formation. The pebble isolation mass is beyond the hydrogen burning limit, so accretion is limited by stellar feedback instead of gap carving. We also predict a population of exotic objects directly formed above the hydrogen burning limit, yet of pure dust. Our model suggests that AGN dust tori host the largest populations of planets in the universe.

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arXiv2026

Image reconstruction with the JWST Interferometer

Flying on board the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) above Earth's turbulent atmosphere, the Aperture Masking Interferometer (AMI) on the NIRISS instrument is the highest-resolution infrared interferometer ever placed in space. However, its performance was found to be limited by non-linear detector systematics, particularly charge migration - or the Brighter-Fatter Effect. Conventional interferometric Fourier observables are degraded by non-linear transformations in the image plane, with the consequence that the inner working angle and contrast limits of AMI were seriously compromised. Building on the end-to-end differentiable model & calibration code amigo, we here present a regularised maximum-likelihood image reconstruction framework dorito which can deconvolve AMI images either in the image plane or from calibrated Fourier observables, achieving high angular resolution and contrast over a wider field of view than conventional interferometric limits. This modular code by default includes regularisation by maximum entropy, and total variation defined with $l_1$ or $l_2$ metrics. We present imaging results from dorito for three benchmark imaging datasets: the volcanoes of Jupiter's moon Io, the colliding-wind binary dust nebula WR 137 and the archetypal Seyfert 2 active galactic nucleus NGC 1068. In all three cases we recover images consistent with the literature at diffraction-limited resolutions. The performance, limitations, and future opportunities enabled by amigo for AMI imaging (and beyond) are discussed.

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arXiv2026

AGN Disks as Supernova Mufflers I: 3D Local Hydrodynamic Models

Supernova (SN) shocks that originate from stars on orbits embedded in dense active galactic nuclei (AGN) accretion disks evolve differently from those that occur in the interstellar medium. We aim to assess how shocks evolve in this dense stratified medium and understand where SNe are muffled and have their kinetic energy absorbed by an AGN disk versus escaping. We use Sirko \& Goodman (SG) and Thompson, Quataert \& Murray (TQM) AGN disk models for midplane radial profiles, generated with the pAGN code; we compare the disk pressure to the energy of a standard core-collapse SN ($10^{51}\,{\rm erg}$) to find radii where shock breakout can occur. For verification, we evolve three-dimensional hydrodynamic shearing box simulations of stratified Gaussian disks constructed from the midplane values that are injected with energy and mass from SNe placed at multiple radii and vertical locations, using the Athena code. We find SN shocks in SG disks around black holes with mass $\Mbh=10^6\,\Msun$ become muffled beyond $R\sim10^6\,\Rs$, and that this muffling radius is inversely proportional to supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass with muffling occurring at $R\sim10^2\,\Rs$ for $\Mbh=10^9\,\Msun$. Around TQM disks, the muffling radius occurs at $R\sim10^6\,\Rs$, independent of $\Mbh$. The largest determining factor for muffling a SN shock is the local scale height of the AGN disk. In conclusion, we developed a predictive analytic criterion to identify where AGN disks can muffle SNe shocks depending on their density and vertical scale.

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arXiv2025

An Extremely Luminous Flare Recorded from a Supermassive Black Hole

Since their discovery more than 60 years ago, accreting supermassive black holes in active galactic nuclei (AGN) were recognized as highly variable sources, requiring an extremely compact, dynamic environment. Their variability traces to multiple phenomena, including changing accretion rates, temperature changes, foreground absorbers, and structural changes to the accretion disk. Spurred by a new generation of time-domain surveys, the extremes of black hole variability are now being probed. We report the discovery of an extreme flare by the AGN J224554.84+374326.5, which brightened by more than a factor of 40 in 2018. The source has slowly faded since then. The total emitted UV/optical energy to date is $\sim10^{54}$ erg, i.e., the complete conversion of approximately one solar mass into electromagnetic radiation. This flare is 30 times more powerful than the previous most powerful AGN transient. Very few physical events in the Universe can liberate this much electromagnetic energy. We discuss potential mechanisms, including the tidal disruption of a high mass $(>30\, M_\odot)$ star, gravitational lensing of an AGN flare or supernova, or a supermassive (pair instability) supernova in the accretion disk of an AGN. We favor the tidal disruption of a massive star in a prograde orbit in an AGN disk.

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arXiv2025

McFACTS II: Mass Ratio--Effective Spin Relationship of Black Hole Mergers in the AGN Channel

We use the Monte Carlo For AGN (active galactic nucleus) Channel Testing and Simulation (McFACTS, https://www.github.com/mcfacts/mcfacts) code to study the effect of AGN disk and nuclear star cluster parameters on predicted mass distributions for LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) compact binaries forming in AGN disks. The assumptions we vary include the black hole (BH) initial mass function, disk model, disk size, disk lifetime, and the prograde-to-retrograde fraction of newly formed black hole binaries. Broadly we find that dense, moderately short-lived AGN disks are preferred for producing a $(q,χ_{\rm eff})$ anti-correlation like those identified from existing gravitational wave (GW) observations. Additionally, a BH initial mass function (MF $\propto M^{-2}$) is preferred over a more top-heavy MF ($M^{-1}$). The preferred fraction of prograde-to-retrograde is $>90\%$, to produce results consistent with observations.

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arXiv2025

Evolution of LISA Observables for Binary Black Holes Lensed by an SMBH

Binary black holes (BBH) are expected to form and merge in active galactic nuclei (AGN), deep in the potential well of a supermassive black hole (SMBH), from populations that exist in a nuclear star cluster (NSC). Here we investigate the gravitational wave (GW) signature of a BBH lensed by a nearby SMBH. For a fiducial GW150914-like BBH orbiting close to a $10^{8}M_{\odot}$ SMBH located at $z=0.1$, the lensed GW signal varies in a predictable manner in and out of the LISA detectability band and across frequencies. The occurrence of such signatures has the potential to confound LISA global fit models if they are not modelled. Detection of these sources provide an independent measure of AGN inclination angles, along with detecting warping of the inner disk, and measuring the SMBH spin.

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arXiv2025

McFACTS I: Testing the LVK AGN channel with Monte Carlo For AGN Channel Testing & Simulation (McFACTS)

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) are a promising source of the binary black hole (BBH) mergers observed in gravitational waves with LIGO-Virgo-Kagra (LVK). Constraining the AGN channel allows us to limit AGN parameter space (disk density, size, average lifetime) and nuclear star cluster (NSC) parameter space. Constraints on AGN and NSCs have implications for $Λ$CDM models of AGN feedback and models of AGN-driven SMBH merger and growth. Here we present several qualitative studies of the AGN channel using new public, open-source, fast, reproducible code \texttt{McFACTS}\footnote{https://github.com/mcfacts/mcfacts}:Monte Carlo for AGN channel Testing \& Simulation. We demonstrate several important features for testing the AGN channel, including: i) growth to large mass IMBH is helped by the presence of migration traps or swamps, ii) flat BH initial mass functions highlight hierarchical merger features in the mass spectrum, iii) the ($q,χ_{\rm eff}$) anti-correlation is a strong test of the bias to prograde mergers in the AGN channel, iv) spheroid encounters can drive a fraction of mergers with high in-plane spin components ($χ_{\rm p}$), v) a high rate of extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are driven by an initial population of embedded retrograde BH, vi) Both LVK and LISA are powerful probes of models of AGN disks and their embedded populations.

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arXiv2025

Joint Modeling of Quasar Variability and Accretion Disk Reprocessing using Latent Stochastic Differential Equations

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing, trained with supervised learning on simulated LSST-like 10 yr quasar light curves. We encode the light curves using a transformer encoder, and the driving variability is reconstructed using latent stochastic differential equations, a physically motivated generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding the physical processes of the driving signal and reprocessing into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We demonstrate that our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wave bands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series.

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arXiv2025

Kilonova constraints for the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA neutron star merger candidate S250206dm: GW-MMADS observations

Gravitational wave (GW) neutron star mergers with an associated electromagnetic counterpart constitute powerful probes of binary evolution, the production sites of heavy elements, general relativity, and the expansion of the universe. Only a handful of candidate GW binary mergers during the fourth LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run (O4) so far are believed to include a neutron star. We present optical-near infrared follow-up observations of the candidate neutron-star black hole GW merger S250206dm. This is the first high-significance mass gap neutron star-black hole candidate observed by multiple GW detectors (thus having a significantly smaller sky localization than one-detector events), offering the first opportunity to effectively follow up a GW event of this kind. Our GW MultiMessenger Astronomy DECam Survey (GW-MMADS) campaign consisted of a wide-field search using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) and T80-South (T80S), as well as galaxy-targeted observations using the Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) imager and the Wendelstein 2.1m 3-channel camera. No viable kilonova counterpart was found in our observations. We use our observation depths to place competitive constraints on kilonova models similar to or brighter than the GW170817 kilonova AT 2017gfo within our observed fields, ruling out 100\% of such models with SOAR galaxy-targeted observations and $\sim43$\% (48\%) with DECam (DECam and T80S).

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arXiv2025

McFacts III: Compact binary mergers from AGN disks over an entire synthetic universe

The Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) channel for the formation of binary black hole (BBH) mergers has been previously studied as a potential formation channel for the merging compact binaries observed by the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK) scientific collaboration. The first two papers in this series explored the McFACTS code for the evolution of black hole orbits in AGN accretion disks for individual galaxy models and described the characteristics of predicted BBH populations in realizations of those models (such as the correlation between mass ratio and aligned spin). In this work, we explore the impact of the properties of AGN host galaxies and assume an AGN lifetime and cosmological model for the density of AGN in a universe like our own. By sampling from an inferred population of AGN, we marginalize over galaxy mass to predict a population of BBH mergers observable by modern ground-based gravitational wave observatories. We find that for reasonable assumptions, AGN disk environments may account for massive BBH mergers such as GW190521 and GW190929_012149. We find that the majority of observable BBH mergers from our simulation are expected to originate in galaxies with a super-massive black hole between $10^{7}M_{\odot}$ and $10^{9.4}M_{\odot}$. We also find that if hierarchical mergers from AGN disks account for a substantial part of the LVK population, our current models require an AGN lifetime of 0.5 to 2.5 Myr.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Using gravitational waves and multi-messenger Astronomy to reverse-engineer the properties of galactic nuclei

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) are powered by accretion disks onto supermassive black holes in the the centers of galaxies. AGN are believed to play important roles in the evolution of both supermassive black holes and their host galaxies over cosmic time. AGN and the nuclear star clusters (NSCs) that interact with them remain unresolved with present and planned telescopes. As a result, the properties of AGN and NSCs are highly uncertain. Here we review how binary black hole (BBH) mergers can occur in AGN disks and how both the gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic wave (EM) properties of such mergers allow us to reverse-engineer the properties of AGN disks and NSCs over cosmic time. We point out that the feature in the BBH mass spectrum around $\sim 35M_{\odot}$ is an excellent probe of hierarchical merger models. Likewise constraints on the spins of upper-mass gap BH ($\gtrsim 50M_{\odot}$) test the AGN channel. The effective spin ($χ_{\rm eff}$) distribution, including asymmetry, islands of structure and magnitudes are excellent tests of AGN model predictions. We also argue, that the rate of AGN-driven BBH mergers as a function of redshift should scale slightly shallower than the AGN number density, at least out to redshifts of $\sim 2$, and should turnover at the same redshift as the AGN number density. Finally, we emphasize a determination of an AGN fraction of observed BBH mergers ($f_{\rm BBH,AGN}$), \emph{regardless of the actual value}, allows us to infer the average properties of AGN disks and NSCs out to high redshift.

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arXiv2025

Discovery of extreme Quasi-Periodic Eruptions in a newly accreting massive black hole

Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are rapid, recurring X-ray bursts from supermassive black holes, believed to result from interactions between accretion disks and surrounding matter. The galaxy SDSS1335+0728, previously stable for two decades, exhibited an increase in optical brightness in December 2019, followed by persistent Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN)-like variability for 5 years, suggesting the activation of a $\sim$10$^6\;M_\odot$ black hole. From February 2024, X-ray emission has been detected, revealing extreme $\sim$4.5-day QPEs with the highest fluxes and amplitudes, longest time scales, largest integrated energies, and a $\sim$25-day super-period. Low-significance UV variations are reported for the first time in a QPE host, likely related to the long timescales and large radii from which the emission originates. This discovery broadens the possible formation channels for QPEs, suggesting they are not linked solely to tidal disruption events but more generally to newly formed accretion flows, which we are witnessing in real time in a turn-on AGN candidate.

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arXiv2025

Searching for electromagnetic emission in an AGN from the gravitational wave binary black hole merger candidate S230922g

We carried out long-term monitoring of the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA binary black hole (BBH) merger candidate S230922g in search of electromagnetic emission from the interaction of the merger remnant with an embedding active galactic nuclei (AGN) accretion disk. Using a dataset primarily composed of wide-field imaging from the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) and supplemented by additional photometric and spectroscopic resources, we searched ~ 70% of the sky area probability for transient phenomena, and discovered 6 counterpart candidates. One especially promising candidate - AT 2023aagj - exhibited temporally varying asymmetric components in spectral broad line regions, a feature potentially indicative of an off-center event such as a BBH merger. This represents the first live search and multiwavelength, photometric, and spectroscopic monitoring of a GW BBH optical counterpart candidate in the disk of an AGN.

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arXiv2024

Conditions for Changing-Look AGNs from Accretion Disk-Induced Tidal Disruption Events

The phenomenon of changing-look (CL) behavior in active galactic nuclei (AGN) is characterized by dramatic changes in luminosity and/or emission line profiles over relatively short periods, ranging from months to years. The origin of CL-AGNs remains a mystery, but one proposed explanation involves the response of the inner AGN disk to tidal disruption events (TDEs) around the supermassive black hole (SMBH). In this Letter, we calculate the predicted frequency of AGN TDEs as a function of SMBH mass and compare the results to the observed CL-AGN distribution. We find that if the fraction of CL-AGNs caused by AGN-TDEs is high, then: (1) most SMBHs in CL-AGN are near maximal spin, with the dimensionless spin parameter $a>0.9$; (2) AGN inner disks have a high surface density ($\geq 10^{7}\, {\rm g\, cm^{-2}}$); (3) typical AGN lifetimes are $\sim 10$-$100$ Myr; and (4) a nuclear star cluster initial mass function (IMF) that scales as $\sim m_*^{-1.6}$ is preferred. Future observations of CL-AGN will help constrain the fraction of CL-AGNs caused by AGN-TDEs, SMBH spins, AGN lifetimes, and the nuclear star cluster IMF.

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arXiv2024

Tidal Disruption Events from three-body scatterings and eccentricity pumping in the disks of Active Galactic Nuclei

Tidal Disruption Events (TDEs) are routinely observed in quiescent galaxies, as stars from the nuclear star cluster are scattered into the loss cone of the central supermassive black hole (SMBH). TDEs are also expected to occur in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), due to scattering or orbital eccentricity pumping of stars embedded in the innermost regions of the AGN accretion disk. Encounters with embedded stellar-mass black holes (BH) can result in AGN $μ$TDEs. AGN TDEs and $μ$TDEs could therefore account for a fraction of observed AGN variability. Here, by performing scattering experiments with the few-body code {\tt SpaceHub}, we compute the probability of AGN TDEs and $μ$TDEs as a result of 3-body interactions between stars and binary BHs. We find that AGN TDEs are more probable during the early life of the AGNs, when rates are $\sim (6\times 10^{-5}-5 \times 10^{-2}) (f_\bullet/0.01)$ $~\rm{AGN}^{-1}$~yr$^{-1}$ (where $f_\bullet$ is the ratio between the number density of BHs and stars), generally higher than in quiescent galactic nuclei. By contrast, $μ$TDEs should occur throughout the AGN lifetime at a rate of $\sim (1\times 10^{-4} - 4\times 10^{-2} (f_\bullet/0.01)$ $~\rm{AGN}^{-1}$~yr$^{-1}$. Detection and characterization of AGN TDEs and $μ$ AGN TDEs with future surveys using {\em Rubin} and {\em Roman} will help constrain the populations of stars and compact objects embedded in AGN disks, a key input for the LVK AGN channel.

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