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K. Kuehn

Publications and source records attributed to K. Kuehn.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

Consistent lensing and clustering in a low-$S_8$ Universe with BOSS, DES Year 3, HSC Year 1 and KiDS-1000

We evaluate the consistency between lensing and clustering probes of large-scale structure based on measurements of projected galaxy clustering from BOSS combined with overlapping galaxy-galaxy lensing from three surveys: DES Y3, HSC Y1, and KiDS-1000. An intra-lensing-survey study finds good agreement between these lensing data. We model the observations using the Dark Emulator and fit the data at two fixed cosmologies: Planck, with $S_8=0.83$, and a Lensing cosmology with $S_8=0.76$. For a joint analysis limited to scales with $R>5.25h^{-1}$Mpc, we find that both cosmologies provide an acceptable fit to the data. Full utilisation of the small-scale clustering and lensing measurements is hindered by uncertainty in the impact of baryon feedback and assembly bias, which we account for with a reasoned theoretical error budget. We incorporate a systematic scaling parameter for each redshift bin, $A$, that decouples the lensing and clustering to capture any inconsistency. When a wide range of scales ($0.15<R<60h^{-1}$Mpc) are incorporated, we find different results for the consistency of clustering and lensing between the two cosmologies. Limiting the analysis to the bins for which the impact of the selection of the lens sample is expected to be minimal, for the low-$S_8$ Lensing cosmology, the measurements are consistent with $A$=1; $A=0.91\pm0.04$ using DES+KiDS and $A=0.97\pm0.06$ using HSC. For the Planck cosmology case, we find a discrepancy: $A=0.79\pm0.03$ using DES+KiDS and $A=0.84\pm0.05$ using HSC. We demonstrate that a kSZ-based estimate for baryonic effects alleviates some of the discrepancy in the Planck cosmology. This analysis demonstrates the statistical power of these small-scale measurements, but also indicates that caution is still warranted given current uncertainties in modelling baryonic effects, assembly bias, and selection effects in the foreground sample.

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Cosmic Shear in Harmonic Space from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Data: Compatibility with Configuration Space Results

We perform a cosmic shear analysis in harmonic space using the first year of data collected by the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y1). We measure the cosmic weak lensing shear power spectra using the Metacalibration catalogue and perform a likelihood analysis within the framework of CosmoSIS. We set scale cuts based on baryonic effects contamination and model redshift and shear calibration uncertainties as well as intrinsic alignments. We adopt as fiducial covariance matrix an analytical computation accounting for the mask geometry in the Gaussian term, including non-Gaussian contributions. A suite of 1200 lognormal simulations is used to validate the harmonic space pipeline and the covariance matrix. We perform a series of stress tests to gauge the robustness of the harmonic space analysis. Finally, we use the DES-Y1 pipeline in configuration space to perform a similar likelihood analysis and compare both results, demonstrating their compatibility in estimating the cosmological parameters $S_8$, $σ_8$ and $Ω_m$. The methods implemented and validated in this paper will allow us to perform a consistent harmonic space analysis in the upcoming DES data.

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Characterising the Intracluster Light over the Redshift Range $0.2 < z < 0.8$ in the DES-ACT Overlap

We characterise the properties and evolution of Bright Central Galaxies (BCGs) and the surrounding intracluster light (ICL) in galaxy clusters identified in overlapping regions of the Dark Energy Survey and Atacama Cosmology Telescope Survey (DES-ACT), covering the redshift range $0.20 $14.4. We also measure the stellar mass - halo mass (SMHM) relation for the BCG+ICL system and find that the slope, $β$, which characterises the dependence of $M_{\rm 200m,SZ}$ on the BCG+ICL stellar mass, increases with radius. The outskirts are more strongly correlated with the halo than the core, which supports that the BCG+ICL system follows a two-phase growth, where recent growth ($z<2$) occurs beyond the BCG's core. Additionally, we compare our observed SMHM relation results to the IllustrisTNG 300-1 cosmological hydrodynamic simulations and find moderate qualitative agreement in the amount of diffuse light. However, the SMHM relation's slope is steeper in TNG300-1 and the intrinsic scatter is lower, likely from the absence of projection effects in TNG300-1. Additionally, we find that the ICL exhibits a colour gradient such that the outskirts are bluer than the core. Moreover, for the lower halo mass clusters (log$_{10}(M_{\rm 200m,SZ}$/M$_{\odot})<$14.59 ), we detect a modest change in the colour gradient's slope with lookback time, which combined with the absence of stellar mass growth may suggest that lower mass clusters have been involved in growth via tidal stripping more recently than their higher mass counterparts.

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Lessons Learned from the Two Largest Galaxy Morphological Classification Catalogues built by Convolutional Neural Networks

We compare the two largest galaxy morphology catalogues, which separate early and late type galaxies at intermediate redshift. The two catalogues were built by applying supervised deep learning (convolutional neural networks, CNNs) to the Dark Energy Survey data down to a magnitude limit of $\sim$21 mag. The methodologies used for the construction of the catalogues include differences such as the cutout sizes, the labels used for training, and the input to the CNN - monochromatic images versus $gri$-band normalized images. In addition, one catalogue is trained using bright galaxies observed with DES ($i<18$), while the other is trained with bright galaxies ($r<17.5$) and `emulated' galaxies up to $r$-band magnitude $22.5$. Despite the different approaches, the agreement between the two catalogues is excellent up to $i<19$, demonstrating that CNN predictions are reliable for samples at least one magnitude fainter than the training sample limit. It also shows that morphological classifications based on monochromatic images are comparable to those based on $gri$-band images, at least in the bright regime. At fainter magnitudes, $i>19$, the overall agreement is good ($\sim$95\%), but is mostly driven by the large spiral fraction in the two catalogues. In contrast, the agreement within the elliptical population is not as good, especially at faint magnitudes. By studying the mismatched cases we are able to identify lenticular galaxies (at least up to $i<19$), which are difficult to distinguish using standard classification approaches. The synergy of both catalogues provides an unique opportunity to select a population of unusual galaxies.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: cosmology with moments of weak lensing mass maps

We present a cosmological analysis using the second and third moments of the weak lensing mass (convergence) maps from the first three years of data (Y3) data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The survey spans an effective area of 4139 square degrees and uses the images of over 100 million galaxies to reconstruct the convergence field. The second moment of the convergence as a function of smoothing scale contains information similar to standard shear 2-point statistics. The third moment, or the skewness, contains additional non-Gaussian information. The data is analysed in the context of the $Λ$CDM model, varying 5 cosmological parameters and 19 nuisance parameters modelling astrophysical and measurement systematics. Our modelling of the observables is completely analytical, and has been tested with simulations in our previous methodology study. We obtain a 1.7\% measurement of the amplitude of fluctuations parameter $S_8\equiv σ_8 (Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.784\pm 0.013$. The measurements are shown to be internally consistent across redshift bins, angular scales, and between second and third moments. In particular, the measured third moment is consistent with the expectation of gravitational clustering under the $Λ$CDM model. The addition of the third moment improves the constraints on $S_8$ and $Ω_{\rm m}$ by $\sim$15\% and $\sim$25\% compared to an analysis that only uses second moments. We compare our results with {\it Planck} constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), finding a $2.2$ \textendash $2.8σ$ tension in the full parameter space, depending on the combination of moments considered. The third moment independently is in $2.8σ$ tension with {\it Planck}, and thus provides a cross-check on analyses of 2-point correlations.

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Dwarf AGNs from Optical Variability for the Origins of Seeds (DAVOS): Insights from the Dark Energy Survey Deep Fields

We present a sample of 706, $z < 1.5$ active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected from optical photometric variability in three of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) deep fields (E2, C3, and X3) over an area of 4.64 deg$^2$. We construct light curves using difference imaging aperture photometry for resolved sources and non-difference imaging PSF photometry for unresolved sources, respectively, and characterize the variability significance. Our DES light curves have a mean cadence of 7 days, a 6 year baseline, and a single-epoch imaging depth of up to $g \sim 24.5$. Using spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting, we find 26 out of total 706 variable galaxies are consistent with dwarf galaxies with a reliable stellar mass estimate ($M_{\ast}<10^{9.5}\ M_\odot$; median photometric redshift of 0.9). We were able to constrain rapid characteristic variability timescales ($\sim$ weeks) using the DES light curves in 15 dwarf AGN candidates (a subset of our variable AGN candidates) at a median photometric redshift of 0.4. This rapid variability is consistent with their low black hole masses. We confirm the low-mass AGN nature of one source with a high S/N optical spectrum. We publish our catalog, optical light curves, and supplementary data, such as X-ray properties and optical spectra, when available. We measure a variable AGN fraction versus stellar mass and compare to results from a forward model. This work demonstrates the feasibility of optical variability to identify AGNs with lower black hole masses in deep fields, which may be more "pristine" analogs of supermassive black hole seeds.

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The Dark Energy Survey 5-year photometrically identified Type Ia Supernovae

As part of the cosmology analysis using Type Ia Supernovae (SN Ia) in the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we present photometrically identified SN Ia samples using multi-band light-curves and host galaxy redshifts. For this analysis, we use the photometric classification framework SuperNNova (SNN; Möller et al. 2019) trained on realistic DES-like simulations. For reliable classification, we process the DES SN programme (DES-SN) data and introduce improvements to the classifier architecture, obtaining classification accuracies of more than 98 per cent on simulations. This is the first SN classification to make use of ensemble methods, resulting in more robust samples. Using photometry, host galaxy redshifts, and a classification probability requirement, we identify 1,863 SNe Ia from which we select 1,484 cosmology-grade SNe Ia spanning the redshift range of 0.07 < z < 1.14. We find good agreement between the light-curve properties of the photometrically-selected sample and simulations. Additionally, we create similar SN Ia samples using two types of Bayesian Neural Network classifiers that provide uncertainties on the classification probabilities. We test the feasibility of using these uncertainties as indicators for out-of-distribution candidates and model confidence. Finally, we discuss the implications of photometric samples and classification methods for future surveys such as Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST).

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Superclustering with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and Dark Energy Survey: I. Evidence for thermal energy anisotropy using oriented stacking

The cosmic web contains filamentary structure on a wide range of scales. On the largest scales, superclustering aligns multiple galaxy clusters along inter-cluster bridges, visible through their thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich signal in the Cosmic Microwave Background. We demonstrate a new, flexible method to analyze the hot gas signal from multi-scale extended structures. We use a Compton-$y$ map from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) stacked on redMaPPer cluster positions from the optical Dark Energy Survey (DES). Cutout images from the $y$ map are oriented with large-scale structure information from DES galaxy data such that the superclustering signal is aligned before being overlaid. We find evidence for an extended quadrupole moment of the stacked $y$ signal at the 3.5$σ$ level, demonstrating that the large-scale thermal energy surrounding galaxy clusters is anisotropically distributed. We compare our ACT$\times$DES results with the Buzzard simulations, finding broad agreement. Using simulations, we highlight the promise of this novel technique for constraining the evolution of anisotropic, non-Gaussian structure using future combinations of microwave and optical surveys.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: imprints of cosmic voids and superclusters in the Planck CMB lensing map

The CMB lensing signal from cosmic voids and superclusters probes the growth of structure in the low-redshift cosmic web. In this analysis, we cross-correlated the Planck CMB lensing map with voids detected in the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (Y3) data set ($\sim$5,000 deg$^{2}$), expanding on previous measurements that used Y1 catalogues ($\sim$1,300 deg$^{2}$). Given the increased statistical power compared to Y1 data, we report a $6.6σ$ detection of negative CMB convergence ($κ$) imprints using approximately 3,600 voids detected from a redMaGiC luminous red galaxy sample. However, the measured signal is lower than expected from the MICE N-body simulation that is based on the $Λ$CDM model (parameters $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.25$, $σ_8 = 0.8$), and the discrepancy is associated mostly with the void centre region. Considering the full void lensing profile, we fit an amplitude $A_κ=κ_{\rm DES}/κ_{\rm MICE}$ to a simulation-based template with fixed shape and found a moderate $2σ$ deviation in the signal with $A_κ\approx0.79\pm0.12$. We also examined the WebSky simulation that is based on a Planck 2018 $Λ$CDM cosmology, but the results were even less consistent given the slightly higher matter density fluctuations than in MICE. We then identified superclusters in the DES and the MICE catalogues, and detected their imprints at the $8.4σ$ level; again with a lower-than-expected $A_κ=0.84\pm0.10$ amplitude. The combination of voids and superclusters yields a $10.3σ$ detection with an $A_κ=0.82\pm0.08$ constraint on the CMB lensing amplitude, thus the overall signal is $2.3σ$ weaker than expected from MICE.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Three-Point Shear Correlations and Mass Aperture Moments

We present high signal-to-noise measurements of three-point shear correlations and the third moment of the mass aperture statistic using the first 3 years of data from the Dark Energy Survey. We additionally obtain the first measurements of the configuration and scale dependence of the four three-point shear correlations which carry cosmological information. With the third-order mass aperture statistic, we present tomographic measurements over angular scales of 4 to 60 arcminutes with a combined statistical significance of 15.0$σ$. Using the tomographic information and measuring also the second-order mass aperture, we additionally obtain a skewness parameter and its redshift evolution. We find that the amplitudes and scale-dependence of these shear 3pt functions are in qualitative agreement with measurements in a mock galaxy catalog based on N-body simulations, indicating promise for including them in future cosmological analyses. We validate our measurements by showing that B-modes, parity-violating contributions and PSF modeling uncertainties are negligible, and determine that the measured signals are likely to be of astrophysical and gravitational origin.

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Milky Way Satellite Census. IV. Constraints on Decaying Dark Matter from Observations of Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We use a recent census of the Milky Way (MW) satellite galaxy population to constrain the lifetime of particle dark matter (DM). We consider two-body decaying dark matter (DDM) in which a heavy DM particle decays with lifetime $τ$ comparable to the age of the Universe to a lighter DM particle (with mass splitting $ε$) and to a dark radiation species. These decays impart a characteristic "kick velocity," $V_{\mathrm{kick}}=εc$, on the DM daughter particles, significantly depleting the DM content of low-mass subhalos and making them more susceptible to tidal disruption. We fit the suppression of the present-day DDM subhalo mass function (SHMF) as a function of $τ$ and $V_{\mathrm{kick}}$ using a suite of high-resolution zoom-in simulations of MW-mass halos, and we validate this model on new DDM simulations of systems specifically chosen to resemble the MW. We implement our DDM SHMF predictions in a forward model that incorporates inhomogeneities in the spatial distribution and detectability of MW satellites and uncertainties in the mapping between galaxies and DM halos, the properties of the MW system, and the disruption of subhalos by the MW disk using an empirical model for the galaxy--halo connection. By comparing to the observed MW satellite population, we conservatively exclude DDM models with $τ< 18\ \mathrm{Gyr}$ ($29\ \mathrm{Gyr}$) for $V_{\mathrm{kick}}=20\ \mathrm{km}\, \mathrm{s}^{-1}$ ($40\ \mathrm{km}\, \mathrm{s}^{-1}$) at $95\%$ confidence. These constraints are among the most stringent and robust small-scale structure limits on the DM particle lifetime and strongly disfavor DDM models that have been proposed to alleviate the Hubble and $S_8$ tensions.

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Joint analysis of DES Year 3 data and CMB lensing from SPT and Planck III: Combined cosmological constraints

We present cosmological constraints from the analysis of two-point correlation functions between galaxy positions and galaxy lensing measured in Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data and measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck. When jointly analyzing the DES-only two-point functions and the DES cross-correlations with SPT+Planck CMB lensing, we find $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.344\pm 0.030$ and $S_8 \equiv σ_8 (Ω_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.773\pm 0.016$, assuming $Λ$CDM. When additionally combining with measurements of the CMB lensing autospectrum, we find $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.306^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$ and $S_8 = 0.792\pm 0.012$. The high signal-to-noise of the CMB lensing cross-correlations enables several powerful consistency tests of these results, including comparisons with constraints derived from cross-correlations only, and comparisons designed to test the robustness of the galaxy lensing and clustering measurements from DES. Applying these tests to our measurements, we find no evidence of significant biases in the baseline cosmological constraints from the DES-only analyses or from the joint analyses with CMB lensing cross-correlations. However, the CMB lensing cross-correlations suggest possible problems with the correlation function measurements using alternative lens galaxy samples, in particular the redMaGiC galaxies and high-redshift MagLim galaxies, consistent with the findings of previous studies. We use the CMB lensing cross-correlations to identify directions for further investigating these problems.

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Velocity Dispersions of Clusters in the Dark Energy Survey Y3 redMaPPer Catalog

We measure the velocity dispersions of clusters of galaxies selected by the redMaPPer algorithm in the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), allowing us to probe cluster selection and richness estimation, $λ$, in light of cluster dynamics. Our sample consists of 126 clusters with sufficient spectroscopy for individual velocity dispersion estimates. We examine the correlations between cluster velocity dispersion, richness, X-ray temperature and luminosity as well as central galaxy velocity offsets. The velocity dispersion-richness relation exhibits a bimodal distribution. The majority of clusters follow scaling relations between velocity dispersion, richness, and X-ray properties similar to those found for previous samples; however, there is a significant population of clusters with velocity dispersions which are high for their richness. These clusters account for roughly 22\% of the $λ< 70$ systems in our sample, but more than half (55\%) of $λ< 70$ clusters at $z>0.5$. A couple of these systems are hot and X-ray bright as expected for massive clusters with richnesses that appear to have been underestimated, but most appear to have high velocity dispersions for their X-ray properties likely due to line-of-sight structure. These results suggest that projection effects contribute significantly to redMaPPer selection, particularly at higher redshifts and lower richnesses. The redMaPPer determined richnesses for the velocity dispersion outliers are consistent with their X-ray properties, but several are X-ray undetected and deeper data is needed to understand their nature.

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STRIDES: Automated uniform models for 30 quadruply imaged quasars

Gravitational time delays provide a powerful one step measurement of $H_0$, independent of all other probes. One key ingredient in time delay cosmography are high accuracy lens models. Those are currently expensive to obtain, both, in terms of computing and investigator time (10$^{5-6}$ CPU hours and $\sim$ 0.5-1 year, respectively). Major improvements in modeling speed are therefore necessary to exploit the large number of lenses that are forecast to be discovered over the current decade. In order to bypass this roadblock, building on the work by Shajib et al. (2019), we develop an automated modeling pipeline and apply it to a sample of 30 quadruply imaged quasars and one lensed compact galaxy, observed by the Hubble Space Telescope in multiple bands. Our automated pipeline can derive models for 30/31 lenses with few hours of human time and <100 CPU hours of computing time for a typical system. For each lens, we provide measurements of key parameters and predictions of magnification as well as time delays for the multiple images. We characterize the cosmography-readiness of our models using the stability of differences in Fermat potential (proportional to time delay) w.r.t. modeling choices. We find that for 10/30 lenses our models are cosmography or nearly cosmography grade (<3% and 3-5% variations). For 6/30 lenses the models are close to cosmography grade (5-10%). These results are based on informative priors and will need to be confirmed by further analysis. However, they are also likely to improve by extending the pipeline modeling sequence and options. In conclusion, we show that uniform cosmography grade modeling of large strong lens samples is within reach.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Calibration of Lens Sample Redshift Distributions using Clustering Redshifts with BOSS/eBOSS

We present clustering redshift measurements for Dark Energy Survey (DES) lens sample galaxies to be used in weak gravitational lensing and galaxy clustering studies. To perform this measurement, we cross-correlate with spectroscopic galaxies from the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Survey (BOSS) and its extension, eBOSS. We validate our methodology in simulations, including a new technique to calibrate systematic errors due to the galaxy clustering bias, finding our method to be generally unbiased in calibrating the mean redshift. We apply our method to the data, and estimate the redshift distribution for eleven different photometrically-selected bins. We find general agreement between clustering redshift and photometric redshift estimates, with differences on the inferred mean redshift to be below $|Δz|=0.01$ in most of the bins. We also test a method to calibrate a width parameter for redshift distributions, which we found necessary to use for some of our samples. Our typical uncertainties on the mean redshift ranged from 0.003 to 0.008, while our uncertainties on the width ranged from 4 to 9\%. We discuss how these results calibrate the photometric redshift distributions used in companion DES Year 3 Results papers.

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Optical Variability of Quasars with 20-Year Photometric Light Curves

We study the optical $gri$ photometric variability of a sample of 190 quasars within the SDSS Stripe 82 region that have long-term photometric coverage during $\sim 1998-2020$ with SDSS, PanSTARRS-1, the Dark Energy Survey, and dedicated follow-up monitoring with Blanco 4m/DECam. With on average $\sim 200$ nightly epochs per quasar per filter band, we improve the parameter constraints from a Damped Random Walk (DRW) model fit to the light curves over previous studies with 10-15 yr baselines and $\lesssim 100$ epochs. We find that the average damping timescale $τ_{\rm DRW}$ continues to rise with increased baseline, reaching a median value of $\sim 750$ days ($g$ band) in the rest-frame of these quasars using the 20-yr light curves. Some quasars may have gradual, long-term trends in their light curves, suggesting that either the DRW fit requires very long baselines to converge, or that the underlying variability is more complex than a single DRW process for these quasars. Using a subset of quasars with better-constrained $τ_{\rm DRW}$ (less than 20\% of the baseline), we confirm a weak wavelength dependence of $τ_{\rm DRW}\propto λ^{0.51\pm0.20}$. We further quantify optical variability of these quasars over days to decades timescales using structure function (SF) and power spectrum density (PSD) analyses. The SF and PSD measurements qualitatively confirm the measured (hundreds of days) damping timescales from the DRW fits. However, the ensemble PSD is steeper than that of a DRW on timescales less than $\sim$ a month for these luminous quasars, and this second break point correlates with the longer DRW damping timescale.

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DeepZipper II: Searching for Lensed Supernovae in Dark Energy Survey Data with Deep Learning

Gravitationally lensed supernovae (LSNe) are important probes of cosmic expansion, but they remain rare and difficult to find. Current cosmic surveys likely contain and 5-10 LSNe in total while next-generation experiments are expected to contain several hundreds to a few thousands of these systems. We search for these systems in observed Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year SN fields -- 10 3-sq. deg. regions of sky imaged in the $griz$ bands approximately every six nights over five years. To perform the search, we utilize the DeepZipper approach: a multi-branch deep learning architecture trained on image-level simulations of LSNe that simultaneously learns spatial and temporal relationships from time series of images. We find that our method obtains a LSN recall of 61.13% and a false positive rate of 0.02% on the DES SN field data. DeepZipper selected 2,245 candidates from a magnitude-limited ($m_i$ $<$ 22.5) catalog of 3,459,186 systems. We employ human visual inspection to review systems selected by the network and find three candidate LSNe in the DES SN fields.

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Constraints on the Physical Properties of GW190814 through Simulations based on DECam Follow-up Observations by the Dark Energy Survey

On 14 August 2019, the LIGO and Virgo Collaborations detected gravitational waves from a black hole and a 2.6 solar mass compact object, possibly the first neutron star -- black hole (NSBH) merger. In search of an optical counterpart, the Dark Energy Survey (DES) obtained deep imaging of the entire 90 percent confidence level localization area with Blanco/DECam 0, 1, 2, 3, 6, and 16 nights after the merger. Objects with varying brightness were detected by the DES Pipeline and we systematically reduced the candidate counterparts through catalog matching, light curve properties, host-galaxy photometric redshifts, SOAR spectroscopic follow-up observations, and machine-learning-based photometric classification. All candidates were rejected as counterparts to the merger. To quantify the sensitivity of our search, we applied our selection criteria to full light curve simulations of supernovae and kilonovae as they would appear in the DECam observations. Since the source class of the merger was uncertain, we utilized an agnostic, three-component kilonova model based on tidally-disrupted NS ejecta properties to quantify our detection efficiency of a counterpart if the merger included a NS. We find that if a kilonova occurred during this merger, configurations where the ejected matter is greater than 0.07 solar masses, has lanthanide abundance less than $10^{-8.56}$, and has a velocity between $0.18c$ and $0.21c$ are disfavored at the $2σ$ level. Furthermore, we estimate that our background reduction methods are capable of associating gravitational wave signals with a detected electromagnetic counterpart at the $4σ$ level in $95\%$ of future follow-up observations.

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