arXiv subjects

K. Shuvo Bakar

Publications and source records attributed to K. Shuvo Bakar.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Heatwave-Related Mortality Across Indian Cities Under Future Climate Scenarios

Heatwaves are intensifying as a major climate extreme and have emerged as a growing public health threat in rapidly urbanizing regions such as India. In this study, we integrate long-term heat-related mortality records (1970-2023) with bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections to quantify future heatwave-related mortality across 67 Indian cities under intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. A time-series forecasting framework was applied using summer mean temperature as the primary climate driver to project mortality trajectories through the end of the 21st century. Results indicate a strong and sustained increase in heat-related mortality under both scenarios, with multi-fold amplification under SSP5-8.5 relative to SSP2-4.5, reflecting the high sensitivity of health outcomes to emission pathways. Spatial analysis reveals increasing regional divergence under high-emission conditions, with urban regions in the Deccan Plateau, western India, and parts of eastern and northeastern India exhibiting disproportionately higher mortality growth. Multidimensional scaling further highlights emerging clustering of state-level mortality behavior under extreme warming, indicating structurally different regional responses to future heat stress. In contrast, the intermediate mitigation pathway produces more moderate and spatially uniform mortality trends. These findings demonstrate that climate mitigation can substantially reduce both the magnitude and inequality of future urban heat-health burdens. By linking updated climate projections with long-term mortality data at national and sub-national scales, this study provides policy-relevant evidence to support heat adaptation planning and climate-resilient urban development in one of the world's most heat-vulnerable regions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Bayesian Gaussian models for interpolating large-dimensional data at misaligned areal units

Areal level spatial data are often large, sparse and may appear with geographical shapes that are regular or irregular (e.g., postcode). Moreover, sometimes it is important to obtain predictive inference in regular or irregular areal shapes that is misaligned with the observed spatial areal geographical boundary. For example, in a survey the respondents were asked about their postcode, however for policy making purposes, researchers are often interested to obtain information at the SA2. The statistical challenge is to obtain spatial prediction at the SA2s, where the SA2s may have overlapped geographical boundaries with postcodes. The study is motivated by a practical survey data obtained from the Australian National University (ANU) Poll. Here the main research question is to understand respondents' satisfaction level with the way Australia is heading. The data are observed at 1,944 postcodes among the 2,516 available postcodes across Australia, and prediction is obtained at the 2,196 SA2s. The proposed method also explored through a grid-based simulation study, where data have been observed in a regular grid and spatial prediction has been done in a regular grid that has a misaligned geographical boundary with the first regular grid-set. The real-life example with ANU Poll data addresses the situation of irregular geographical boundaries that are misaligned, i.e., model fitted with postcode data and hence obtained prediction at the SA2. A comparison study is also performed to validate the proposed method. In this paper, a Gaussian model is constructed under Bayesian hierarchy. The novelty lies in the development of the basis function that can address spatial sparsity and localised spatial structure. It can also address the large-dimensional spatial data modelling problem by constructing knot based reduced-dimensional basis functions.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2014

A Censored Bayesian Hierarchical Model For Precipitation

Modelling of precipitation, including extremes, is important for hydrological and agricultural applications. Traditionally, because of large sample properties for data over a large threshold value, generalised Pareto (GP) distributions are often used for modelling extreme rainfall. It can be shown that under certain conditions the generalised hyperbolic (GH) distributions can approximate the power law decay of the GP distribution in the tails. Given their flexible form, this raises the possibility that distributions from the GH family serve as a model for the entire rainfall distribution thus avoiding the need to select a threshold. In this paper, we use a flexible censored hierarchical model that leverages the GH distribution to accommodate data subject to heavy tails and an excessive number of zeros. The fitted model allows estimation of probabilities and return periods of the rainfall extremes, and it produces narrower credible intervals in the tails than the traditional GP method. The model not only fits the tails of the rainfall distribution, but fits the whole distribution very well. It also efficiently represents short-term dependencies in the data so it is suitable for evaluating duration over and below thresholds as well as duration of zero rainfall.

stat.AP↗