arXiv subjects

Kaan Ozbay

Publications and source records attributed to Kaan Ozbay.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Deep and diverse population synthesis for multi-person households using generative models with conditional inputs

Traditional methods of population synthesis produce stable and interpretable populations but cannot capture the interrelationships between household- and individual-level attributes. Recent deep learning methods offer this flexibility, yet can overfit high-dimensional attribute relationships without structural guidance and deviate from known structures. We develop a household level synthetic population generation framework that adapts the existing conditional input directed acyclic tabular generative adversarial network, or ciDATGAN, to multi person households. The framework combines household size specific data construction, directed acyclic graphs (DAG) informed dependency regularization, and conditional population inputs as deterministic anchoring to preserve intrahousehold associations. We apply the model to generate an open access synthetic population for New York State. The synthetic population includes nearly 20 million individuals and 7.5 million households in 2021. Validation against withheld benchmarks shows close agreement: joint distribution matching of Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMA), age, race, and disability against the full public use microdata sample (PUMS) yields an R-squared of 0.602 and a Jensen-Shannon distance of 0.280, pairwise Cramer's V differences between generated and benchmark records average below 0.007 at the person level, and classifier two-sample tests on complete household records yield AUC values of 0.527-0.549, close to chance level. The generated households reproduce cross member associations while increasing diversity by 10-17% over the PUMS sample and 13.2% over PopGen alone.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Agents' Last Exam

Recent AI systems have achieved strong results on a wide range of benchmarks, yet these gains have not translated into economically meaningful deployment across many professional domains. We argue that this gap is largely an evaluation problem: widely used benchmarks lack sustained performance measurement on real and economically valuable workflows. This paper introduces Agents' Last Exam (ALE), a benchmark designed to evaluate AI agents on long horizon, economically valuable, real world tasks with verifiable outcomes. Developed in collaboration with 250+ industry experts, ALE covers non-physical industries defined with reference to O*NET / SOC 2018 (the U.S. federal occupational taxonomy). It is organized around a task taxonomy with 55 sub fields grouped into 13 industry clusters covering 1K+ tasks. Current results show that the hardest tier remains far from saturated: across mainstream harness and backbone configurations, the average full pass rate is below 1%. ALE is designed as a living benchmark: its task pool grows continuously as new workflows and industries are onboarded. More broadly, ALE is intended not merely as another leaderboard, but as an instrument for closing the gap between benchmark success and GDP relevant impact.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

From Cues to Horizons: Dynamic Risk Horizon Profiling for Trajectory Prediction

Accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for safe autonomous driving. Recent studies have incorporated safety risk into trajectory prediction to quantify dangers posed by surrounding agents. However, most risk-aware approaches use past risk information as a secondary signal to help guide decisions, overlooking its future evolution and uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a risk horizon profiling (RHP) module that incorporates a continuous, learnable potential field model for risk-aware trajectory prediction. The RHP module calculates the spatial-temporal proximity of surrounding objects to profile risk distributions across future horizons, which supports better trajectory prediction by adaptively identifying what human drivers perceive as critical moments. We evaluate our method on two datasets from different driving settings, highD for highway corridors and SHRP2 for urban streets, which cover diverse risk scenarios including safe, near-crash, and crash events. Compared to the baseline methods, our framework achieves a 25.0\% reduction in 5s RMSE on the highD dataset and a 29.1\% reduction in 5s minFDE on SHRP2. These results indicate strong performance for both short and long horizon prediction and robust generalization across highway and urban scenarios. The proposed method enables more realistic AV path planning and strategic selection, thereby supporting safer autonomous driving and more advanced driver-assistance systems. The source code for this work is available at: https://github.com/bilab-nyu/RHP

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Dynamic Deployment of Mobile Charging Trucks During Natural Disaster Evacuation: An Offline-to-Online Framework

During large-scale evacuations, concentrated electric vehicle (EV) charging demand can overload fixed charging stations (FCSs), leading to prolonged waiting time and increased risk exposure. To address this challenge, this study proposes dynamically deploying mobile charging trucks (MCTs) to complement FCSs, and develops an Adaptive Risk-aware MCT Deployment (ARMD) framework for real-time operation. It divides the MCT deployment into two problems: risk-aware allocation of MCTs among FCSs and dynamic routing of MCTs to the assigned FCSs, and solves them under an offline-to-online paradigm. The resource allocation problem is formulated as a decentralized partially observable Markov decision process, and a multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO)-based policy is developed to coordinate multiple MCTs under decentralized observations. The policy is pre-trained offline in an evacuation simulator and adaptively refined online according to current evacuation context. For routing, a spatio-temporal travel time predictor is developed to support rolling-horizon route updates. The proposed framework is evaluated in a simulated hurricane evacuation environment built using real-world data from Hillsborough County, Florida. Experiments show that ARMD consistently outperforms offline optimization, online heuristic dispatch, and rolling-horizon optimization in reducing risk exposure. For demand perturbation scenarios, ARMD reduces average risk exposure by up to 71.1%, relative to the baseline without MCTs. In the case of fixed e-vehicle charging infrastructure or road link failures, ARMD achieves 39.3% to 60.5% reduction in average risk exposure, with its advantages becoming more pronounced as the severity of disruption increases. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of ARMD in enhancing mobile charging operations for realistic scenarios of uncertain evacuation conditions.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Scaling Traffic Insights with AI and Language Model-Powered Camera Systems for Data-Driven Transportation Decision Making

Accurate, scalable traffic monitoring is critical for real-time and long-term transportation management, particularly during disruptions such as natural disasters, large construction projects, or major policy changes like New York City's first-in-the-nation congestion pricing program. However, widespread sensor deployment remains limited due to high installation, maintenance, and data management costs. While traffic cameras offer a cost-effective alternative, existing video analytics struggle with dynamic camera viewpoints and massive data volumes from large camera networks. This study presents an end-to-end AI-based framework leveraging existing traffic camera infrastructure for high-resolution, longitudinal analysis at scale. A fine-tuned YOLOv11 model, trained on localized urban scenes, extracts multimodal traffic density and classification metrics in real time. To address inconsistencies from non-stationary pan-tilt-zoom cameras, we introduce a novel graph-based viewpoint normalization method. A domain-specific large language model was also integrated to process massive data from a 24/7 video stream to generate frequent, automated summaries of evolving traffic patterns, a task far exceeding manual capabilities. We validated the system using over 9 million images from roughly 1,000 traffic cameras during the early rollout of NYC congestion pricing in 2025. Results show a 9% decline in weekday passenger vehicle density within the Congestion Relief Zone, early truck volume reductions with signs of rebound, and consistent increases in pedestrian and cyclist activity at corridor and zonal scales. Experiments showed that example-based prompts improved LLM's numerical accuracy and reduced hallucinations. These findings demonstrate the framework's potential as a practical, infrastructure-ready solution for large-scale, policy-relevant traffic monitoring with minimal human intervention.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Composite Safety Potential Field for Highway Driving Risk Assessment

In the era of rapid advancements in vehicle safety technologies, driving risk assessment has become a focal point of attention. Technologies such as collision warning systems, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), and autonomous driving require driving risks to be evaluated proactively and in real time. To be effective, driving risk assessment metrics must not only accurately identify potential collisions but also exhibit human-like reasoning to enable safe and seamless interactions between vehicles. Existing safety potential field models assess driving risks by considering both objective and subjective safety factors. However, their practical applicability in real-world risk assessment tasks is limited. These models are often challenging to calibrate due to the arbitrary nature of their structures, and calibration can be inefficient because of the scarcity of accident statistics. Additionally, they struggle to generalize across both longitudinal and lateral risks. To address these challenges, we propose a composite safety potential field framework, namely C-SPF, involving a subjective field to capture drivers' risk perception about spatial proximity and an objective field to quantify the imminent collision probability, to comprehensively evaluate driving risks. The C-SPF is calibrated using abundant two-dimensional spacing data from trajectory datasets, enabling it to effectively capture drivers' proximity risk perception and provide a more realistic explanation of driving behaviors. Analysis of a naturalistic driving dataset demonstrates that the C-SPF can capture both longitudinal and lateral risks that trigger drivers' safety maneuvers. Further case studies highlight the C-SPF's ability to explain lateral driver behaviors, such as abandoning lane changes or adjusting lateral position relative to adjacent vehicles, which are capabilities that existing models fail to achieve.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Pricing is All You Need to Improve Traffic Routing

We investigate the design of pricing policies that enhance driver adherence to route guidance, ensuring effective routing control. The major novelty lies in that we adopt a Markov chain to model drivers' compliance rates conditioned on both traffic states and tolls. By formulating the managed traffic network as a nonlinear stochastic dynamical system, we can quantify in a more realistic way the impacts of driver route choices and thus determine appropriate tolls. Specially, we focus on a network comprised of one corridor and one local street. We assume that a reasonable routing policy is specified in advance. However, drivers could be reluctant to be detoured. Thus a fixed toll is set on the corridor to give drivers incentives to choose the local street. We evaluate the effectiveness of the given routing and pricing policies via stability analysis. We suggest using the stability and instability conditions to establish lower and upper bounds on throughput. This allows us to select suitable tolls that maximize these bounds.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Traffic Adaptive Moving-window Service Patrolling for Real-time Incident Management during High-impact Events

This paper presents the Traffic Adaptive Moving-window Patrolling Algorithm (TAMPA), designed to improve real-time incident management during major events like sports tournaments and concerts. Such events significantly stress transportation networks, requiring efficient and adaptive patrol solutions. TAMPA integrates predictive traffic modeling and real-time complaint estimation, dynamically optimizing patrol deployment. Using dynamic programming, the algorithm continuously adjusts patrol strategies within short planning windows, effectively balancing immediate response and efficient routing. Leveraging the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality, TAMPA detects significant shifts in complaint patterns, triggering proactive adjustments in patrol routes. Theoretical analyses ensure performance remains closely aligned with optimal solutions. Simulation results from an urban traffic network demonstrate TAMPA's superior performance, showing improvements of approximately 87.5\% over stationary methods and 114.2\% over random strategies. Future work includes enhancing adaptability and incorporating digital twin technology for improved predictive accuracy, particularly relevant for events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup at MetLife Stadium.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

When language and vision meet road safety: leveraging multimodal large language models for video-based traffic accident analysis

The increasing availability of traffic videos functioning on a 24/7/365 time scale has the great potential of increasing the spatio-temporal coverage of traffic accidents, which will help improve traffic safety. However, analyzing footage from hundreds, if not thousands, of traffic cameras in a 24/7/365 working protocol remains an extremely challenging task, as current vision-based approaches primarily focus on extracting raw information, such as vehicle trajectories or individual object detection, but require laborious post-processing to derive actionable insights. We propose SeeUnsafe, a new framework that integrates Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) agents to transform video-based traffic accident analysis from a traditional extraction-then-explanation workflow to a more interactive, conversational approach. This shift significantly enhances processing throughput by automating complex tasks like video classification and visual grounding, while improving adaptability by enabling seamless adjustments to diverse traffic scenarios and user-defined queries. Our framework employs a severity-based aggregation strategy to handle videos of various lengths and a novel multimodal prompt to generate structured responses for review and evaluation and enable fine-grained visual grounding. We introduce IMS (Information Matching Score), a new MLLM-based metric for aligning structured responses with ground truth. We conduct extensive experiments on the Toyota Woven Traffic Safety dataset, demonstrating that SeeUnsafe effectively performs accident-aware video classification and visual grounding by leveraging off-the-shelf MLLMs. Source code will be available at \url{https://github.com/ai4ce/SeeUnsafe}.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

A multi-dimension and high-granularity equity measurement for transportation services through accessibility and reliability

Transportation equity research has traditionally emphasized service accessibility and destination reachability while often overlooking the critical aspects of service quality, such as infrequent schedules or overcrowded vehicles. This oversight can lead to a skewed understanding of equity, as high accessibility does not guarantee high-quality service. Addressing this gap, we propose a transportation equity index called the multi-dimensional, high-granularity (MDHG) index. Such an index considers service accessibility and quality alongside population demographics. This approach ensures that areas with high accessibility but low service quality are recognized as inequitable. The MDHG Index addresses service performance by incorporating performance data with temporal variations based on actual trip data, thus offering a more nuanced view of transportation equity that reflects the real-world experiences of service users. Furthermore, to effectively identify and address the needs at the user level, we need to use a highly granular population dataset. Due to the low granularity of census and other open-source datasets, we opted to use a highly granular synthetic dataset. To test out the MDHG Index, we coupled a highly granular synthetic population dataset with data from NYC Citi Bike expansion to use as a case study to assess changes in accessibility and service quality before and after the expansion. The MDHG approach effectively identified areas that improved post-expansion and highlighted those requiring further enhancement, thus showing the effectiveness of the index in targeted improvements for transportation equity.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Multi-level Traffic-Responsive Tilt Camera Surveillance through Predictive Correlated Online Learning

In urban traffic management, the primary challenge of dynamically and efficiently monitoring traffic conditions is compounded by the insufficient utilization of thousands of surveillance cameras along the intelligent transportation system. This paper introduces the multi-level Traffic-responsive Tilt Camera surveillance system (TTC-X), a novel framework designed for dynamic and efficient monitoring and management of traffic in urban networks. By leveraging widely deployed pan-tilt-cameras (PTCs), TTC-X overcomes the limitations of a fixed field of view in traditional surveillance systems by providing mobilized and 360-degree coverage. The innovation of TTC-X lies in the integration of advanced machine learning modules, including a detector-predictor-controller structure, with a novel Predictive Correlated Online Learning (PiCOL) methodology and the Spatial-Temporal Graph Predictor (STGP) for real-time traffic estimation and PTC control. The TTC-X is tested and evaluated under three experimental scenarios (e.g., maximum traffic flow capture, dynamic route planning, traffic state estimation) based on a simulation environment calibrated using real-world traffic data in Brooklyn, New York. The experimental results showed that TTC-X captured over 60\% total number of vehicles at the network level, dynamically adjusted its route recommendation in reaction to unexpected full-lane closure events, and reconstructed link-level traffic states with best MAE less than 1.25 vehicle/hour. Demonstrating scalability, cost-efficiency, and adaptability, TTC-X emerges as a powerful solution for urban traffic management in both cyber-physical and real-world environments.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Digital Twin-based Driver Risk-Aware Intelligent Mobility Analytics for Urban Transportation Management

Traditional mobility management strategies emphasize macro-level mobility oversight from traffic-sensing infrastructures, often overlooking safety risks that directly affect road users. To address this, we propose a Digital Twin-based Driver Risk-Aware Intelligent Mobility Analytics (DT-DIMA) system. The DT-DIMA system integrates real-time traffic information from pan-tilt-cameras (PTCs), synchronizes this data into a digital twin to accurately replicate the physical world, and predicts network-wide mobility and safety risks in real time. The system's innovation lies in its integration of spatial-temporal modeling, simulation, and online control modules. Tested and evaluated under normal traffic conditions and incidental situations (e.g., unexpected accidents, pre-planned work zones) in a simulated testbed in Brooklyn, New York, DT-DIMA demonstrated mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) ranging from 8.40% to 15.11% in estimating network-level traffic volume and MAPEs from 0.85% to 12.97% in network-level safety risk prediction. In addition, the highly accurate safety risk prediction enables PTCs to preemptively monitor road segments with high driving risks before incidents take place. Such proactive PTC surveillance creates around a 5-minute lead time in capturing traffic incidents. The DT-DIMA system enables transportation managers to understand mobility not only in terms of traffic patterns but also driver-experienced safety risks, allowing for proactive resource allocation in response to various traffic situations. To the authors' best knowledge, DT-DIMA is the first urban mobility management system that considers both mobility and safety risks based on digital twin architecture.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Traffic Prediction considering Multiple Levels of Spatial-temporal Information: A Multi-scale Graph Wavelet-based Approach

Although traffic prediction has been receiving considerable attention with a number of successes in the context of intelligent transportation systems, the prediction of traffic states over a complex transportation network that contains different road types has remained a challenge. This study proposes a multi-scale graph wavelet temporal convolution network (MSGWTCN) to predict the traffic states in complex transportation networks. Specifically, a multi-scale spatial block is designed to simultaneously capture the spatial information at different levels, and the gated temporal convolution network is employed to extract the temporal dependencies of the data. The model jointly learns to mount multiple levels of the spatial interactions by stacking graph wavelets with different scales. Two real-world datasets are used in this study to investigate the model performance, including a highway network in Seattle and a dense road network of Manhattan in New York City. Experiment results show that the proposed model outperforms other baseline models. Furthermore, different scales of graph wavelets are found to be effective in extracting local, intermediate and global information at the same time and thus enable the model to learn a complex transportation network topology with various types of road segments. By carefully customizing the scales of wavelets, the model is able to improve the prediction performance and better adapt to different network configurations.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Informed along the road: roadway capacity driven graph convolution network for network-wide traffic prediction

While deep learning has shown success in predicting traffic states, most methods treat it as a general prediction task without considering transportation aspects. Recently, graph neural networks have proven effective for this task, but few incorporate external factors that impact roadway capacity and traffic flow. This study introduces the Roadway Capacity Driven Graph Convolution Network (RCDGCN) model, which incorporates static and dynamic roadway capacity attributes in spatio-temporal settings to predict network-wide traffic states. The model was evaluated on two real-world datasets with different transportation factors: the ICM-495 highway network and an urban network in Manhattan, New York City. Results show RCDGCN outperformed baseline methods in forecasting accuracy. Analyses, including ablation experiments, weight analysis, and case studies, investigated the effect of capacity-related factors. The study demonstrates the potential of using RCDGCN for transportation system management.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A-TEAM: Advanced Traffic Event Analysis and Management Platform for Transportation Data-Driven Problem Solving

The rapid growth in terms of the availability of transportation data provides great potential for the introduction of emerging data-driven methodologies into transportation-related research and development efforts. However, advanced data-driven models, such as artificial-intelligence based approaches, usually contain complicated modeling structures and require strict data formats along with a very complex execution environment. It is thus often challenging to deploy and implement such data-driven models in a real-world environment. Moreover, a full-fledged application requires not only well developed and calibrated models, but also efficient connections with back end infrastructure such as large databases and front end utilities, such as a user-interface. This paper introduces a novel platform which provides an integrated architecture for deploying multi-purpose real-time traffic management applications. Inspired by the concept of modular design in software system development, this paper proposes a modular platform allowing users to customize their mission specific needs and preferences. The developed platform is capable of incorporating flexible user-provided models and/or data with the ultimate goal of deploying them as a complete application ready for real-world use. To illustrate this novel modular software system concept, this paper presents a work zone management and coordination application that is built upon the developed implementation platform to provide useful decision support to traffic engineers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Learning When to See for Long-term Traffic Data Collection on Power-constrained Devices

Collecting traffic data is crucial for transportation systems and urban planning, and is often more desirable through easy-to-deploy but power-constrained devices, due to the unavailability or high cost of power and network infrastructure. The limited power means an inevitable trade-off between data collection duration and accuracy/resolution. We introduce a novel learning-based framework that strategically decides observation timings for battery-powered devices and reconstructs the full data stream from sparsely sampled observations, resulting in minimal performance loss and a significantly prolonged system lifetime. Our framework comprises a predictor, a controller, and an estimator. The predictor utilizes historical data to forecast future trends within a fixed time horizon. The controller uses the forecasts to determine the next optimal timing for data collection. Finally, the estimator reconstructs the complete data profile from the sampled observations. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method on PeMS data by an RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) predictor and estimator, and a DRQN (Deep Recurrent Q-Network) controller, and compare it against the baseline that uses Kalman filter and uniform sampling. The results indicate that our method outperforms the baseline, primarily due to the inclusion of more representative data points in the profile, resulting in an overall 10\% improvement in estimation accuracy. Source code will be publicly available.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

How Does Driver Non-compliance Destroy Traffic Routing Control?

Routing control is one of important traffic management strategies against urban congestion. However, it could be compromised by heterogeneous driver non-compliance with routing instructions. In this article we model the compliance in a stochastic manner and investigate its impacts on routing control. We consider traffic routing for two parallel links. Particularly, we consider two scenarios: one ignores congestion spillback while the other one considers it. We formulate the problem as a non-linear Markov chain, given random compliance rates. Then we propose the stability and instability conditions to reveal when the routing is able or unable to stabilize the traffic. We show that for links without congestion spillback there exists a sufficient and necessary stability criterion. For links admiting congestion propagation, we present one stability condition and one instability condition. This stability conditions allow us to quantify the impacts of driver non-compliance on the two-link network in terms of throughput. Finally, we illustrate the results with a set of numerical examples.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Physics-informed Machine Learning for Calibrating Macroscopic Traffic Flow Models

Well-calibrated traffic flow models are fundamental to understanding traffic phenomena and designing control strategies. Traditional calibration has been developed base on optimization methods. In this paper, we propose a novel physics-informed, learning-based calibration approach that achieves performances comparable to and even better than those of optimization-based methods. To this end, we combine the classical deep autoencoder, an unsupervised machine learning model consisting of one encoder and one decoder, with traffic flow models. Our approach informs the decoder of the physical traffic flow models and thus induces the encoder to yield reasonable traffic parameters given flow and speed measurements. We also introduce the denoising autoencoder into our method so that it can handles not only with normal data but also with corrupted data with missing values. We verified our approach with a case study of I-210 E in California.

cs.LG↗