arXiv subjects

Kai Ikuta

Publications and source records attributed to Kai Ikuta.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Systematic and Statistical Properties of Prominence Eruptions on the M-dwarf YZ CMi

M-dwarfs produce frequent flares, and their associated mass ejections are expected to significantly affect the habitability of close-in exoplanets. Recent spectroscopic observations have revealed several prominence eruptions-indicative of stellar mass ejections-on M-dwarfs through Doppler shifts of the H$α$ line. However, systematic and statistical studies, particularly regarding their association with white-light flares, have been limited due to the lack of intensive and continuous simultaneous photometric and spectroscopic monitoring of the same target star. We conducted one month of continuous spectroscopic observations of the active M-dwarf YZ CMi using the 3.8-m Seimei telescope with an unprecedentedly high time cadence of $\sim$1 min, simultaneously with TESS. We detected four prominence eruptions, among which two events showed rapid, short-duration eruptions with velocities of $\sim$300-500 km s$^{-1}$ and durations of $\sim$5 min. Such short-duration events may have been missed in previous observations due to insufficient time cadence. We further performed a systematic analysis using 35 H$α$ flares on YZ CMi observed simultaneously with TESS. Notably, most prominence eruptions (6 out of 7) were not associated with detectable white-light flares. This result suggests that most observed prominence eruptions on M-dwarfs may have occurred near the stellar limb, where white-light flares are difficult to detect, which may imply a potential observational bias in their detectability due to low contrast with the background emission. These first statistical constraints, together with the discovery of rapid, short-duration prominence eruptions, indicate that previous observations may have underestimated both the frequency and velocities of mass ejections on M-dwarfs due to observational biases and highlight the necessity of reassessing their impact on close-in exoplanets.

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arXiv2026

A Search for helium in the atmospheres of three sub-Neptunes and a super-Earth around M-dwarfs

Thousands of sub-Neptunes have been discovered mainly through space-based surveys such as Kepler and TESS. Their bulk compositions and internal structures are thought to reflect their formation and evolutionary pathways, and atmospheric observations provide constraints on these processes. The near-infrared helium triplet is a potential tracer of extended, escaping H/He atmospheres. Recent models that include geometric effects suggest that planets orbiting nearby late M dwarfs may offer favorable conditions for detecting this signal. Nevertheless, helium has been reported for only three planets around M dwarfs to date. We conducted high-resolution transmission spectroscopy of three sub-Neptunes (TOI-2136b, TOI-654b, and LP 791-18c) and a super-Earth (TOI-1634b) orbiting M dwarfs with the InfraRed Doppler (IRD) spectrograph on the Subaru Telescope. We find no statistically significant helium absorption in any target; accordingly, we derive 95% confidence upper limits on the helium line depth of 1.36%, 0.60%, 2.07%, and 3.00%, and on the equivalent width of 7.3, 2.1, 7.4, and 9.1 mÅ, for TOI-2136b, TOI-1634b, TOI-654b, and LP 791-18c, respectively. We further explored constraints on the upper-atmospheric temperature and mass-loss rate by comparing these results with isothermal Parker-wind models. While we have compared with self-consistent ATES models of primordial H/He atmospheres spanning a range of assumed X-ray luminosities, changes in the assumed XUV flux do not appear to account for the non-detections. The results suggest that these planets have metal-enriched H/He primary atmospheres or non-primordial atmospheres, such as water-rich envelopes. Future observations of other absorption lines, such as Lyman-$α$, H-$α$, and H$_2$O, may provide further constraints on these atmospheres.

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arXiv2026

The Occurrence Rate of Nearby Planetary Companions to Hot Jupiters

Of the > 500 confirmed transiting hot jupiters and approximately 2000 additional candidates today, only ten are known to have nearby companion planets. The survival of nearby companions means that these hot jupiters cannot have migrated to their present location via dynamically disruptive high-eccentricity migration but instead have undergone disk migration or formed in situ. The occurrence rate for these nearby companions, therefore, constrains the relative efficiency of different hot jupiter formation pathways. Here, we perform a uniform box least-squares search for nearby transiting companions to hot jupiters in the first five years of TESS data. Accounting for observational completeness and detection efficiency, we arrive at an occurrence rate of $(7.6^{+5.5}_{-3.8})\%$, which is a lower limit on the fraction of hot jupiters that underwent disk migration or in situ formation. Comparing this rate with that derived from transit-timing variation searches suggests that hot jupiters are likely mostly aligned with their nearby companions, but their apparently higher incidence of grazing transits may point to a slight preferential misalignment. We also synthesize evidence that hot jupiters with nearby companions may have cold companions at a rate similar to that of other hot jupiters. Comprehensive transit, radial velocity, and stellar obliquity measurements in hot jupiter systems with nearby companions will be necessary to fully account for the relative prevalence of proposed hot jupiter formation pathways.

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arXiv2026

The mass of TOI-1883 b: A low density super-Neptune in the ridge regime transiting an early-M dwarf

Recent large-scale transit surveys conducted by space telescopes such as Kepler and TESS have revealed a vast number of exoplanets, uncovering the diversity of their population. One of the remarkable findings is the presence of a deficiency region in the period-radius distribution of short-period (< 10 days) Neptune-sized planets (4-8 Earth radii). This region is classified into the Neptune desert (< 3.2 days), the ridge (3.2-5.7 days), and the savanna (> 5.7 days) based on orbital period, each likely reflecting distinct evolutionary pathways. In this study, we used the InfraRed Doppler (IRD) instrument on the Subaru Telescope to determine the mass of the super-Neptune TOI-1883 b, which resides in the ridge region (P ~ 4.51 days) orbiting an M dwarf. We measured a planetary mass of Mp = 13.7 +6.8/-6.5 Earth masses and a mean density of 0.4 +0.3/-0.2 g cm^-3, with 3-sigma upper limits of 34.1 Earth masses, and 5-sigma upper limits of 47.7 Earth masses. These results suggest that TOI-1883 b is likely a low density super-Neptune. We also find that the boundary of the Neptune desert defined by planets orbiting FGK-type stars exhibits a similar distribution for planets around M-type stars. According to the population-based argument of Bourrier et al. (2025), this suggests that TOI-1883 b may have undergone disk-driven migration to reach its current orbit and experienced early atmospheric photoevaporation driven by strong stellar XUV irradiation. The derived planetary mass is comparable to or exceeds the conventional critical core mass. We suggest that the high metallicity of the host star ([Fe/H] = 0.32 +/- 0.18) may have suppressed the onset of runaway gas accretion. Furthermore, TOI-1883 b has a high Transmission Spectroscopy Metric (TSM > 140), making it an excellent target for future atmospheric characterization via transmission spectroscopy.

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arXiv2026

Multicolour Validation of Two Temperate Mini-Neptunes Around M-dwarf Habitable Zones

For small planets orbiting within the habitable zones of their host stars, multicolour validation via photometric transit observations offers an efficient alternative to prioritize targets before intensive radial-velocity follow-up, thereby expanding the sample of habitable-zone exoplanets amenable for atmospheric characterisation. In this study, we validate two exceptional habitable-zone TESS candidates, orbiting around M-dwarfs, as genuine planets, precisely determining their transit and physical parameters. We perform Bayesian model comparison by jointly fitting multicolour light curves from TESS and ground-based follow-up, including observations with HiPERCAM at the 10.4-m GTC. Our approach uses wavelength-dependent transit depth variations and precise transit geometry to reject false positives. We validate TOI-2094 b and TOI-7166 b as two new benchmark temperate mini-Neptunes. TOI-2094 b (1.90 $R_{\oplus}$) orbits its M3V star with a period of $\sim$18.79 days, well within the habitable zone ($\sim$0.98 Earth insolation). TOI-7166 b (2.39 $R_{\oplus}$) orbits its M4.5V host star with a period of $\sim$12.92 days, placing it near the inner edge of the habitable zone ($\sim$1.93 Earth insolation). Statistical mass and density estimates suggest that TOI-2094 b may be a volatile-rich planet, such as a water world or a gaseous planet, and is less likely to be rocky, while TOI-7166 b is likely to be volatile-rich. Both planets are of great interest for detailed atmospheric characterisation with the JWST and future ELTs, which requires further precise mass measurements.

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arXiv2026

Multiwavelength Campaign Observations of a Young Solar-type Star, EK Draconis. III. Comparison between Starspot Mapping, Zeeman Doppler Imaging, and Multiwavelength Variability

Recent simultaneous multiwavelength observations of a nearby young solar-type star EK Dra in the optical, H$α$ spectrum, and X-ray, have provided evidence for stellar prominence eruptions associated with superflares. The large prominence eruption is suggested to have been caused by a large mid-latitude spot on the polarity inversion lines near the stellar limb from the concurrent Zeeman Doppler Imaging (ZDI) and optical photometry by the TESS. In this study, we perform starspot mapping for the TESS data of EK Dra to investigate the relation of starspots and magnetic fields from the photometry and ZDI. We also explore the multiwavelength rotational variability ascribed to starspots and active regions for the TESS, B-band, H$α$, and X-ray light curves. As a result, we find that (i) spot locations deduced from the TESS light curve are mostly consistent with the intensity map from the ZDI except for a polar spot, and (ii) the H$α$ light curve exhibits clear periodicity with respect to the TESS light curve because the H$α$ line is radiated around spots in the chromosphere. The X-ray light curve does not show such association probably because of multiple spots on high activity level and extended spatial structure of coronal active regions. The results provide clues to explore their association with stellar flares at different heights of active regions in chromospheric and coronal lines. Our study also enables us to quantify the stellar XUV radiation from the magnetic fields of active stars toward understanding atmospheric evolution of exoplanets.

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arXiv2026

TOI-3862 b: A dense super-Neptune deep in the hot Neptune desert

The structure and evolution of close-in exoplanets are shaped by atmospheric loss and migration processes, which give rise to key population features such as the hot Neptune desert, ridge, and savanna - regions of the period-radius space whose boundaries offer critical insights into planetary formation and survival. As part of the KESPRINT collaboration, we selected the TESS transiting planet candidate TOI-3862.01 for radial velocity follow-up to confirm its planetary nature and characterize its mass and bulk properties. This planet candidate is of particular interest due to its position in the middle of the hot Neptune desert, making it a valuable probe for testing theories of planet migration and atmospheric loss. We confirmed the planetary nature and determined the mass of TOI-3862.01 (hereinafter TOI-3862b) by performing a joint fit with both transit and radial velocity data, precisely characterizing the bulk properties of this planet. TOI-3862b is a super-Neptune on a 1.56-day orbit around a Sun-like star with an effective temperature of 5300$\pm$50K. It has a mass of 53.7$_{-2.9}^{+2.8}$ M$_{\oplus}$ and a radius of 5.53$\pm$0.18 R$_{\oplus}$, corresponding to a density of 1.7$\pm$0.2 g/cm^3. This places it among the rare population of hot and dense super-Neptune desert planets. TOI-3862b, residing deep in the hot Neptune desert, represents a rare occurrence in an otherwise sparsely populated region, offering a valuable opportunity to probe the processes that may allow planets to survive in such environments.

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arXiv2026

A young progenitor for the most common planetary systems in the Galaxy

The Galaxy's most common known planetary systems have several Earth-to-Neptune-size planets in compact orbits. At small orbital separations, larger planets are less common than their smaller counterparts by an order of magnitude. The young star V1298 Tau hosts one such compact planetary system, albeit with four planets that are uncommonly large (5 to 10 Earth radii). The planets form a chain of near-resonances that result in transit-timing variations of several hours. Here we present a multi-year campaign to characterize this system with transit-timing variations, a method insensitive to the intense magnetic activity of the star. Through targeted observations, we first resolved the previously unknown orbital period of the outermost planet. The full 9-year baseline from these and archival data then enabled robust determination of the masses and orbital parameters for all four planets. We find the planets have low, sub-Neptune masses and nearly circular orbits, implying a dynamically tranquil history. Their low masses and large radii indicate that the inner planets underwent a period of rapid cooling immediately after dispersal of the protoplanetary disk. Still, they are much less dense than mature planets of comparable size. We predict the planets will contract to 1.5-4.0 Earth radii and join the population of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes that nature produces in abundance.

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arXiv2026

Statistical Study of Appearance Timing of H$α$ Postflare Loops: Simple Scaling Law Based on Radiative Cooling

Recent Sun-as-a-star studies have shown that postflare loops can manifest as a secondary peak in the H$α$ light curve, suggesting that stellar postflare loops are detectable. To understand what determines the timing of such a secondary peak in the H$α$ light curve associated with postflare loops, we must quantitatively identify the key physical processes controlling the appearance of H$α$ postflare loops. Previous case studies have indicated that the appearance timing of H$α$ postflare loops is likely governed by radiative cooling. However, the statistical characteristics of the timing of H$α$ postflare loops appearance remain insufficiently investigated. In this study, we statistically investigated the appearance timing of H$α$ postflare loops to quantify their cooling processes. As a result, we found a negative correlation between the time difference between the soft X-ray peak and the appearance of the H$α$ postflare loops ($Δt$) and the soft X-ray peak flux ($F_\mathrm{X}$). This relationship is consistent with the theoretical scaling between radiative cooling timescale ($τ_{\mathrm{rad}}$) and $F_\mathrm{X}$, where $τ_{\mathrm{rad}} \propto~F_\mathrm{X}^{-1/2}$. This statistical result indicates that the appearance timing of H$α$ postflare loops relative to the soft X-ray peak is primarily controlled by radiative cooling. Furthermore, we examined the dependence of the scaling law on flare spatial scales ($L$). Consequently, we demonstrated that spatial scale of unresolved stellar flares can be estimated using the following scaling law: $L\propto F_\mathrm{X}^{1/3}Δt^{2/3}$. Our results are useful for interpreting secondary peaks in the H$α$ data of stellar flares and provide new method to estimate spatial scale of unresolved stellar flares.

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arXiv2025

Doppler imaging combined with high-cadence photometry. I. Revisiting the surface of a pre-main-sequence flare star

Latitude distribution of stellar magnetic activity is not well constrained by observations, despite its importance for a better understanding of stellar dynamos. We aim to obtain an accurate reconstruction of the surface spot distribution on the young, rapidly rotating K2 star PW And by combining spectroscopic and photometric diagnostics. In particular, we seek to assess how the inclusion of continuous high-precision TESS photometry in parallel with high-resolution spectroscopy improves latitude recovery of starspots, especially at low latitudes and in the southern hemisphere, which are poorly constrained by Doppler imaging (DI) alone. We explore the spatial origins of the observed white-light flares. We performed simultaneous Doppler imaging and light curve inversion (DI+LCI) using contemporaneous high-resolution GAOES-RV spectra from the 3.8 m Seimei telescope (R~65000) and high-precision TESS light curves. Surface reconstructions employ the SpotDIPy code to model both line profiles and continuum brightness variations. We compare DI+LCI maps with DI-only solutions, conduct artificial-spot simulations to evaluate the effects of latitude, phase coverage, and S/N on reconstruction reliability. We also investigate the spatial correlation between the DI+LCI reconstructed map and flares detected in the TESS data. The DI+LCI reconstruction reveals significant spot features at mid-to-low latitudes, equatorial regions, and even in the southern hemisphere. Simulations show that DI+LCI provides more accurate reconstructions than DI-only, especially under conditions of incomplete phase coverage and low S/N, by better recovering both spot latitudes and filling factors. A comparison between the DI+LCI map and the TESS flare timings also suggests potential association between flare occurrence and reconstructed spot longitudes.

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arXiv2025

Do Young Suns Produce Frequent, Massive CMEs? Results from Five-year Dedicated Optical Observations of EK Draconis and V889 Hercules

We report results from a five-year (132-night) dedicated observational campaign targeting two nearby young solar-type stars, EK Draconis ($\sim$50-125 Myr age) and V889 Hercules ($\sim$30 Myr age), using the 3.8m Seimei Telescope and Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. The aim is to observationally constrain statistical properties of flaring radiation/heating as well as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), through high time-cadence H$α$ spectroscopy. We obtained an unprecedented sample of 15 H$α$ superflares, including two blueshifted absorption, two blueshifted emission, one redshifted emission, and nine line broadening events. We obtain the following results: (1) Larger flares exhibit broader H$α$ line widths, up to 14.1$_{\pm 2.4}$ Å, indicating higher chromospheric heating than solar flares. (2) The long-lasting redshifted event at $\sim$100 km s$^{-1}$ may indicate dense post-flare loops. (3) H$α$ blueshifted absorptions/emissions provide evidence of massive filament/prominence eruptions, the core structures of CMEs. One newly identified event showed an unexpected rapid decrease in velocity. (4) The lower limit of the CME/eruption association rate with superflares is 27$_{-16}^{+25}$%, yielding occurrence rates of 0.21$_{\pm0.12}$ and $<$0.32$^{+0.46}_{-0.32}$ events per day for EK Draconis and V889 Hercules, respectively. (5) We derived the first direct estimate of the lower limit of the mass-loss rate driven by super-CMEs ($\gtrsim10^{33}$ erg) for EK Dra as $4 \times (10^{-13}$-$10^{-12})$ $M_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$, comparable to the stellar wind mass loss at a similar age. This study provides critical observational constraints on the radiation and plasma environment around young solar-type stars and the early Sun, which can drive planetary space weather and stellar mass/angular momentum loss.

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arXiv2025

The mass of TOI-654 b: A short-period sub-Neptune transiting a mid-M dwarf

Sub-Neptunes are small planets between the size of the Earth and Neptune. The orbital and bulk properties of transiting sub-Neptunes can provide clues for their formation and evolution of small planets. In this paper, we report on follow-up observations of a planetary system around the mid-M dwarf TOI-654, whose transiting sub-Neptune TOI-654 b ($P=1.53$ day) is validated as a suitable target for the atmospheric observation. We measure the planetary mass and stellar properties with the InfraRed Doppler instrument (IRD) mounted on the Subaru telescope and obtain the stellar and planetary properties from additional transit observations by the Transit Exoplanetary Survey Satellite (TESS) and a series of the Multicolor Simultaneous Camera for studying Atmospheres of Transiting exoplanets (MuSCAT). As a result, the planetary mass of TOI-654 b is determined to be $M_{\rm p} = 8.71 \pm 1.25 M_{\oplus}$, and the radius is updated to be $R_{\rm p} = 2.378 \pm 0.089 R_{\oplus}$. The bulk density suggests that the planet is composed of a rocky and volatile-rich core or a rocky core surrounded by a small amount of H/He envelope.TOI-654 b is one of unique planets located around the radius valley and and also on the outer edge of the Neptune desert. The precise mass determination enables us to constrain the atmospheric properties with future spectroscopic observations especially for the emission by the James Webb Space Telescope and Ariel.

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arXiv2025

Time evolution of white-light flare accompanied by probable postflare loops on M-type dwarf EV Lacertae

White-light flares are explosive phenomena accompanied by brightening of continuum from near-ultraviolet to optical, which occur on the Sun and stars. In order to investigate the mechanism of white-light flares, we carried out simultaneous optical photometry (TESS : 6000-10000 Å) and spectroscopy (Seimei Telescope : 4100-8900 Å) of a M-dwarf EV Lac on 2019 September 14. We detected a flare with high-time-cadence ($\sim 50$ sec) spectroscopic observation. At the peak, the continuum of the flare component is well fitted by a blackbody spectrum with temperature of $T = 8122 \pm 273$ K, which is comparable with the results of previous studies that reported the spectral energy distribution of near-ultraviolet to optical during the flare could be approximated by single-temperature blackbody radiation at $T \sim 10^{4}$ K. We also estimated the time evolution of the flare temperature during the decay phase. The radiative energy of this flare within the optical range is $4.4 \times 10^{32}$ erg, taking into account the time-dependent variation in the decreasing flare temperature and expanding flare area. Furthermore, we detected a delayed increase in the flux of H$α$ after the photometric flare peak, secondary increase, and gradual increase even after the white-light flare ended. Comparison of our results with light curves obtained by the Sun-as-a-star analysis of solar flares indicates that these signals may be due to postflare loops near the stellar limb. Our result about time evolution of white-light continuum will help to gain more insight into the mechanism of white-light flares both on the Sun and stars. Additionally, since extreme ultraviolet radiation from flare loops plays a key role in planetary atmospheric escape, the existence of postflare loops on stellar flares and its time evolution will help future studies about habitability of close-in planets.

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arXiv2025

TOI-1846b: A super-Earth in the radius valley orbiting a nearby M dwarf

We present the discovery and validation of a super-Earth planet orbiting the M dwarf star TOI-1846 (TIC 198385543). The host star(Kmag = 9.6)is located 47 pc away and has a radius of Rs=0.41+/-0.01R_Sun,a mass of Ms=0.40+/-0.02M_Sun and an effective temperature of Teff=3568+/-44K. Our analyses are based on joint modelling of TESS photometry and ground-based multi-color photometric data. We also use high-resolution imaging and archival images, as well as statistical validation techniques to support the planetary system nature. We find that TOI-1846b is a super-Earth sized planet with radius of Rp=1.79+/-0.07R_Earth and a predicted mass of Mp=4.4+1.6-1.0M_Earth (from the Chen & Kipping relation) on a 3.9 d orbit, with an equilibrium temperature of Teq=589+/-20K (assuming a null Bond Albedo) and an incident flux of Sp=17.6+/-2.0S_Earth. Based on the two RV measurements obtained with the TRES spectrograph and high-resolution imaging, a non-planetary transiting companion is excluded. With a radius of ~1.8R_Earth, TOI-1846b is within the sparsely populated radius range around 2R_Earth known as the radius gap (or radius valley). This discovery can contribute to refining the precise location of the radius valley for small planets orbiting bright M dwarfs, thereby enhancing our understanding of planetary formation and evolution processes.

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arXiv2025

Multi-band, Multi-epoch Photometry of the Spot-crossing System TOI-3884: Refined System Geometry and Spot Properties

Spot-crossing transits offer a unique opportunity to probe spot properties such as temperature, size, and surface distribution. TOI-3884 is a rare system in which spot-crossing features are persistently observed during every transit. This is due to its unusual configuration: a nearly poler orbit super-Neptune transits a pole-on mid-M dwarf, repeatedly crossing a polar spot. However, previous studies have reported discrepant values in key system parameters, such as stellar inclination and obliquity. To address this, we conducted multi-band, multi-epoch transit observations of TOI-3884b using the MuSCAT instrument series, along with photometric monitoring with the LCO 1m telescopes/Sinistro. We detected time-dependent variations in the spot-crossing signals, indicating that the spot is not exactly on the pole. From the monitoring data, we measured a stellar rotation period of $11.043~_{-0.053}^{+0.054}$ days with a modulation amplitude of $\sim$5% in the r-band, consistent with the time variability in the spot-crossing features. Our analysis reconciles previous discrepancies and improves the constraints on the parameters of the system geometry ($i_\star = 139.9~^{+1.2}_{-2.0}$ deg and $λ=41.0~^{+3.7}_{-9.0}$ deg) and those of the spot properties (spot radius of $0.425~_{-0.011}^{+0.018}~R_\star$ and spot-photosphere temperature difference of $200~_{-9}^{+11}$ K). These results provide a critical context for interpreting upcoming transmission spectroscopy of TOI-3884b, as well as yielding new insights into the magnetic activity and spin-orbit geometry of M dwarfs.

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arXiv2025

A transiting giant planet in orbit around a 0.2-solar-mass host star

Planet formation models suggest that the formation of giant planets is significantly harder around low-mass stars, due to the scaling of protoplanetary disc masses with stellar mass. The discovery of giant planets orbiting such low-mass stars thus imposes strong constraints on giant planet formation processes. Here, we report the discovery of a transiting giant planet orbiting a $0.207 \pm 0.011 M_{\odot}$ star. The planet, TOI-6894 b, has a mass and radius of $M_P = 0.168 \pm 0.022 M_J (53.4 \pm 7.1 M_{\oplus})$ and $R_P = 0.855 \pm 0.022 R_J$, and likely includes $12 \pm 2 M_{\oplus}$ of metals. The discovery of TOI-6894 b highlights the need for a better understanding of giant planet formation mechanisms and the protoplanetary disc environments in which they occur. The extremely deep transits (17% depth) make TOI-6894 b one of the most accessible exoplanetary giants for atmospheric characterisation observations, which will be key for fully interpreting the formation history of this remarkable system and for the study of atmospheric methane chemistry.

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arXiv2025

The Eccentricity Distribution of Warm Sub-Saturns in TESS

We present the eccentricity distribution of warm sub-Saturns (4-8 Re, 8-200 day periods) as derived from an analysis of transit light curves from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. We use the "photoeccentric" effect to constrain the eccentricities of 76 planets, comprising 60 and 16 from single- and multi-transiting systems, respectively. We employ Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling to infer the eccentricity distribution of the population, testing both a Beta and Mixture Beta distribution. We identify a few highly eccentric (e ~ 0.7-0.8) warm sub-Saturns with eccentricities that appear too high to be explained by disk migration or planet-planet scattering alone, suggesting high-eccentricity migration may play a role in their formation. The majority of the population have a mean eccentricity of e = 0.103+0.047-0.045, consistent with both planet-disk and planet-planet interactions. Notably, we find that the highly eccentric sub-Saturns occur in single-transiting systems. This study presents the first evidence at the population level that the eccentricities of sub-Saturns may be sculpted by dynamical processes.

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arXiv2025

Tidally Heated Sub-Neptunes, Refined Planetary Compositions, and Confirmation of a Third Planet in the TOI-1266 System

TOI-1266 is a benchmark system of two temperate ($<$ 450 K) sub-Neptune-sized planets orbiting a nearby M dwarf exhibiting a rare inverted architecture with a larger interior planet. In this study, we characterize transit timing variations (TTVs) in the TOI-1266 system using high-precision ground-based follow-up and new TESS data. We confirm the presence of a third exterior non-transiting planet, TOI-1266 d (P = 32.5 d, $M_d$ = 3.68$^{+1.05}_{-1.11} M_{\oplus}$), and combine the TTVs with archival radial velocity (RV) measurements to improve our knowledge of the planetary masses and radii. We find that, consistent with previous studies, TOI-1266 b ($R_b$ = 2.52 $\pm$ 0.08 $R_{\oplus}$, $M_b$ = 4.46 $\pm$ 0.69 $M_{\oplus}$) has a low bulk density requiring the presence of a hydrogen-rich envelope, while TOI-1266 c ($R_c$ = 1.98 $\pm$ 0.10 $R_{\oplus}$, $M_c$ = 3.17 $\pm$ 0.76 $M_{\oplus}$) has a higher bulk density that can be matched by either a hydrogen-rich or water-rich envelope. Our new dynamical model reveals that this system is arranged in a rare configuration with the inner and outer planets located near the 3:1 period ratio with a non-resonant planet in between them. Our dynamical fits indicate that the inner and outer planet have significantly nonzero eccentricities ($e_b + e_d = 0.076^{+0.029}_{-0.019}$), suggesting that TOI-1266 b may have an inflated envelope due to tidal heating. Finally, we explore the corresponding implications for the formation and long-term evolution of the system, which contains two of the most favorable cool ($<$ 500 K) sub-Neptunes for atmospheric characterization with JWST.

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