arXiv subjects

Kai Lehman

Publications and source records attributed to Kai Lehman.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Cosmological gravity on all scales V: MCMC forecasts combining large scale structure and CMB lensing for binned phenomenological modified gravity

As cosmology rapidly approaches the data-dominated phase of stage IV large scale structure surveys, the modelling of nonlinear scales has become a serious challenge that faces the community, particularly when analysing models beyond $w$CDM. In this work, we emulate the matter power spectrum in a phenomenological parameterisation of modified gravity in which a time-varying effective gravitational constant $μ$ and a gravitational slip $η$ are binned in redshift. We are able to achieve accuracy $<1\%$ in the modified gravity boost relative to COLA (COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration) simulations. We forecast the constraining power for each bin using a simulated $3\times 2$pt LSST Y10-like data vector and a $6\times 2$pt LSST Y10 x Simons Observatory cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing data vector. We recover the characteristic degeneracy between $μ$ and $η$ previously identified in Fisher forecasts and demonstrate that the best-constrained direction corresponds to the combination $Σ=μ(1+η)/2$ which governs the lensing potential. We show that while large scale structure is sensitive to growth of structure at low redshift, CMB lensing extends the sensitivity to a higher redshift range. These results demonstrate that fast emulation of nonlinear modified-gravity effects enables full Bayesian analyses of model-agnostic gravity parameterisations with realistic survey data vectors and astrophysical systematics.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

C3NN-SBI: Learning Hierarchies of $N$-Point Statistics from Cosmological Fields with Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Cosmological analyses are moving past the well understood 2-point statistics to extract more information from cosmological fields. A natural step in extending inference pipelines to other summary statistics is to include higher order N-point correlation functions (NPCFs), which are computationally expensive and difficult to model. At the same time it is unclear how many NPCFs one would have to include to reasonably exhaust the cosmological information in the observable fields. An efficient alternative is given by learned and optimized summary statistics, largely driven by overparametrization through neural networks. This, however, largely abandons our physical intuition on the NPCF formalism and information extraction becomes opaque to the practitioner. We design a simulation-based inference pipeline, that not only benefits from the efficiency of machine learned summaries through optimization, but also holds on to the NPCF program. We employ the heavily constrained Cosmological Correlator Convolutional Neural Network (C3NN) which extracts summary statistics that can be directly linked to a given order NPCF. We present an application of our framework to simulated lensing convergence maps and study the information content of our learned summary at various orders in NPCFs for this idealized example. We view our approach as an exciting new avenue for physics-informed simulation-based inference.

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arXiv2025

Cosmological Inference with Cosmic Voids and Neural Network Emulators

Cosmic Voids are a promising probe of cosmology for spectroscopic galaxy surveys due to their unique response to cosmological parameters. Their combination with other probes promises to break parameter degeneracies. Due to simplifying assumptions, analytical models for void statistics are only representative of a subset of the full void population. We present a set of neural-based emulators for void summary statistics of watershed voids, which retain more information about the full void population than simplified analytical models. We build emulators for the void size function and void density profiles traced by the halo number density using the Quijote suite of simulations for a broad range of the $Λ\mathrm{CDM}$ parameter space. The emulators replace the computation of these statistics from computationally expensive cosmological simulations. We demonstrate the cosmological constraining power of voids using our emulators, which offer orders-of-magnitude acceleration in parameter estimation, capture more cosmological information compared to analytic models, and produce more realistic posteriors compared to Fisher forecasts. We find that the parameters $Ω_m$ and $σ_8$ in this Quijote setup can be recovered to $14.4\%$ and $8.4\%$ accuracy respectively using void density profiles; including the additional information in the void size function improves the accuracy on $σ_8$ to $6.8\%$. We demonstrate the robustness of our approach to two important variables in the underlying simulations, the resolution, and the inclusion of baryons. We find that our pipeline is robust to variations in resolution, and we show that the posteriors derived from the emulated void statistics are unaffected by the inclusion of baryons with the Magneticum hydrodynamic simulations. This opens up the possibility of a baryon-independent probe of the large-scale structure.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Learning Optimal and Interpretable Summary Statistics of Galaxy Catalogs with SBI

How much cosmological information can we reliably extract from existing and upcoming large-scale structure observations? Many summary statistics fall short in describing the non-Gaussian nature of the late-time Universe in comparison to existing and upcoming measurements. In this article we demonstrate that we can identify optimal summary statistics and that we can link them with existing summary statistics. Using simulation based inference (SBI) with automatic data-compression, we learn summary statistics for galaxy catalogs in the context of cosmological parameter estimation. By construction these summary statistics do not require the ability to write down an explicit likelihood. We demonstrate that they can be used for efficient parameter inference. These summary statistics offer a new avenue for analyzing different simulation models for baryonic physics with respect to their relevance for the resulting cosmological features. The learned summary statistics are low-dimensional, feature the underlying simulation parameters, and are similar across different network architectures. To link our models, we identify the relevant scales associated to our summary statistics (e.g. in the range of modes between $k= 5 - 30 h/\mathrm{Mpc}$) and we are able to match the summary statistics to underlying simulation parameters across various simulation models.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Predicting the impact of feedback on matter clustering with machine learning in CAMELS

Extracting information from the total matter power spectrum with the precision needed for upcoming cosmological surveys requires unraveling the complex effects of galaxy formation processes on the distribution of matter. We investigate the impact of baryonic physics on matter clustering at $z=0$ using a library of power spectra from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) project, containing thousands of $(25\,h^{-1}{\rm Mpc})^3$ volume realizations with varying cosmology, initial random field, stellar and AGN feedback strength and sub-grid model implementation methods. We show that baryonic physics affects matter clustering on scales $k \gtrsim 0.4\,h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ and the magnitude of this effect is dependent on the details of the galaxy formation implementation and variations of cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Increasing AGN feedback strength decreases halo baryon fractions and yields stronger suppression of power relative to N-body simulations, while stronger stellar feedback often results in weaker effects by suppressing black hole growth and therefore the impact of AGN feedback. We find a broad correlation between mean baryon fraction of massive halos ($M_{\rm 200c} > 10^{13.5}$\,\Msun) and suppression of matter clustering but with significant scatter compared to previous work owing to wider exploration of feedback parameters and cosmic variance effects. We show that a random forest regressor trained on the baryon content and abundance of halos across the full mass range $10^{10} \leq M_\mathrm{halo}/$\Msun$< 10^{15}$ can predict the effect of galaxy formation on the matter power spectrum on scales $k = 1.0$--20.0\,$h\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Inferring the impact of feedback on the matter distribution using the Sunyaev Zel'dovich effect: Insights from CAMELS simulations and ACT+DES data

Feedback from active galactic nuclei and stellar processes changes the matter distribution on small scales, leading to significant systematic uncertainty in weak lensing constraints on cosmology. We investigate how the observable properties of group-scale halos can constrain feedback's impact on the matter distribution using Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS). Extending the results of previous work to smaller halo masses and higher wavenumber, $k$, we find that the baryon fraction in halos contains significant information about the impact of feedback on the matter power spectrum. We explore how the thermal Sunyaev Zel'dovich (tSZ) signal from group-scale halos contains similar information. Using recent Dark Energy Survey (DES) weak lensing and Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) tSZ cross-correlation measurements and models trained on CAMELS, we obtain $10\%$ constraints on feedback effects on the power spectrum at $k \sim 5\, h/{\rm Mpc}$. We show that with future surveys, it will be possible to constrain baryonic effects on the power spectrum to $\mathcal{O}(<1\%)$ at $k = 1\, h/{\rm Mpc}$ and $\mathcal{O}(3\%)$ at $k = 5\, h/{\rm Mpc}$ using the methods that we introduce here. Finally, we investigate the impact of feedback on the matter bispectrum, finding that tSZ observables are highly informative in this case.

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