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Kai Nelson

Publications and source records attributed to Kai Nelson.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Bridging the Simulation-to-Experiment Gap with Generative Models using Adversarial Distribution Alignment

A fundamental challenge in science and engineering is the simulation-to-experiment gap. While we often possess prior knowledge of physical laws, these physical laws can be too difficult to solve exactly for complex systems. Such systems are commonly modeled using simulators, which impose computational approximations. Meanwhile, experimental measurements more faithfully represent the real world, but experimental data typically consists of observations that only partially reflect the system's full underlying state. We propose a data-driven distribution alignment framework that bridges this simulation-to-experiment gap by pre-training a generative model on fully observed (but imperfect) simulation data, then aligning it with partial (but real) observations of experimental data. While our method is domain-agnostic, we ground our approach in the physical sciences by introducing Adversarial Distribution Alignment (ADA). This method aligns a generative model of atomic positions -- initially trained on a simulated Boltzmann distribution -- with the distribution of experimental observations. We prove that our method recovers the target observable distribution, even with multiple, potentially correlated observables. We also empirically validate our framework on synthetic, molecular, and experimental protein data, demonstrating that it can align generative models with diverse observables. Our code is available at https://kaityrusnelson.com/ada/.

cs.LG

EventFlow: Forecasting Temporal Point Processes with Flow Matching

Continuous-time event sequences, in which events occur at irregular intervals, are ubiquitous across a wide range of industrial and scientific domains. The contemporary modeling paradigm is to treat such data as realizations of a temporal point process, and in machine learning it is common to model temporal point processes in an autoregressive fashion using a neural network. While autoregressive models are successful in predicting the time of a single subsequent event, their performance can degrade when forecasting longer horizons due to cascading errors and myopic predictions. We propose EventFlow, a non-autoregressive generative model for temporal point processes. The model builds on the flow matching framework in order to directly learn joint distributions over event times, side-stepping the autoregressive process. EventFlow is simple to implement and achieves a 20%-53% lower forecast error than the nearest baseline on standard TPP benchmarks while simultaneously using fewer model calls at sampling time.

cs.LG

A Generative Diffusion Model for Probabilistic Ensembles of Precipitation Maps Conditioned on Multisensor Satellite Observations

A generative diffusion model is used to produce probabilistic ensembles of precipitation intensity maps at the 1-hour 5-km resolution. The generation is conditioned on infrared and microwave radiometric measurements from the GOES and DMSP satellites and is trained with merged ground radar and gauge data over southeastern United States. The generated precipitation maps reproduce the spatial autocovariance and other multiscale statistical properties of the gauge-radar reference fields on average. Conditioning the generation on the satellite measurements allows us to constrain the magnitude and location of each generated precipitation feature. The mean of the 128- member ensemble shows high spatial coherence with the reference fields with 0.82 linear correlation between the two. On average, the coherence between any two ensemble members is approximately the same as the coherence between any ensemble member and the ground reference, attesting that the ensemble dispersion is a proper measure of the estimation uncertainty. From the generated ensembles we can easily derive the probability of the precipitation intensity exceeding any given intensity threshold, at the 5-km resolution of the generation or at any desired aggregated resolution.

physics.ao-ph