arXiv subjects

Kaijun Ren

Publications and source records attributed to Kaijun Ren.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Diffusion Models Bridge Deep Learning and Physics in ENSO Forecasting

Accurate long-range forecasting of the El \Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for global climate prediction and disaster risk management. Yet, limited understanding of ENSO's physical mechanisms constrains both numerical and deep learning approaches, which often struggle to balance predictive accuracy with physical interpretability. Here, we introduce a data driven model for ENSO prediction based on conditional diffusion model. By constructing a probabilistic mapping from historical to future states using higher-order Markov chain, our model explicitly quantifies intrinsic uncertainty. The approach achieves extending lead times of state-of-the-art methods, resolving early development signals of the spring predictability barrier, and faithfully reproducing the spatiotemporal evolution of historical extreme events. The most striking implication is that our analysis reveals that the reverse diffusion process inherently encodes the classical recharge-discharge mechanism, with its operational dynamics exhibiting remarkable consistency with the governing principles of the van der Pol oscillator equation. These findings establish diffusion models as a new paradigm for ENSO forecasting, offering not only superior probabilistic skill but also a physically grounded theoretical framework that bridges data-driven prediction with deterministic dynamical systems, thereby advancing the study of complex geophysical processes.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

XiChen: A global weather observation-to-forecast machine learning system via four-dimensional variational gradient-guided flexible assimilation

Machine Learning (ML) has shown great promise in revolutionizing weather forecasting, yet most ML systems still rely on initial conditions generated by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. End-to-end ML models aim to eliminate this dependency, but they often rely on observation-specific encoders and require redesign or retraining when observation sources change, thereby limiting their operational robustness. Here, we introduce XiChen, a global weather observation-to-forecast ML system via four-dimensional variational (4DVar) gradient-guided flexible assimilation. We demonstrate that the gradient of the 4DVar cost function serves as a physically grounded interface that maps heterogeneous observations into a common state space. This novel formulation enables XiChen to flexibly assimilate diverse conventional and raw satellite observations while preserving physical consistency. Experiments show that the system achieves forecasting metrics competitive with operational NWP systems. This work provides a practical and physically consistent route toward operational ML-based global weather forecasting systems with heterogeneous and evolving observations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Supporting renewable energy planning and operation with data-driven high-resolution ensemble weather forecast

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these requirements, introducing challenges of scale inconsistency, process representation error, computation cost, and entanglement of distinct uncertainty sources from chaoticity, model bias, and large-scale forcing. We address these challenges by learning the climatological distribution of a target wind farm using its high-resolution numerical weather simulations. An optimal combination of this learned high-resolution climatological prior with coarse-grid large scale forecasts yields highly accurate, fine-grained, full-variable, large ensemble of weather pattern forecasts. Using observed meteorological records and wind turbine power outputs as references, the proposed methodology verifies advantageously compared to existing numerical/statistical forecasting-downscaling pipelines, regarding either deterministic/probabilistic skills or economic gains. Moreover, a 100-member, 10-day forecast with spatial resolution of 1 km and output frequency of 15 min takes < 1 hour on a moderate-end GPU, as contrast to $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ CPU hours for conventional numerical simulation. By drastically reducing computational costs while maintaining accuracy, our method paves the way for more efficient and reliable renewable energy planning and operation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Benchmarking AI-based data assimilation to advance data-driven global weather forecasting

Research on Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Data Assimilation (DA) is expanding rapidly. However, the absence of an objective, comprehensive, and real-world benchmark hinders the fair comparison of diverse methods. Here, we introduce DABench, a benchmark designed for contributing to the development and evaluation of AI-based DA methods. By integrating real-world observations, DABench provides an objective and fair platform for validating long-term closed-loop DA cycles, supporting both deterministic and ensemble configurations. Furthermore, we assess the efficacy of AI-based DA in generating initial conditions for the advanced AI-based weather forecasting model to produce accurate medium-range global weather forecasting. Our dual-validation, utilizing both reanalysis data and independent radiosonde observations, demonstrates that AI-based DA achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art AI-driven four-dimensional variational frameworks across both global weather DA and medium-range forecasting metrics. We invite the research community to utilize DABench to accelerate the advancement of AI-based DA for global weather forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Long-Term Prediction Accuracy Improvement of Data-Driven Medium-Range Global Weather Forecast

Long-term stability stands as a crucial requirement in data-driven medium-range global weather forecasting. Spectral bias is recognized as the primary contributor to instabilities, as data-driven methods difficult to learn small-scale dynamics. In this paper, we reveal that the universal mechanism for these instabilities is not only related to spectral bias but also to distortions brought by processing spherical data using conventional convolution. These distortions lead to a rapid amplification of errors over successive long-term iterations, resulting in a significant decline in forecast accuracy. To address this issue, a universal neural operator called the Spherical Harmonic Neural Operator (SHNO) is introduced to improve long-term iterative forecasts. SHNO uses the spherical harmonic basis to mitigate distortions for spherical data and uses gated residual spectral attention (GRSA) to correct spectral bias caused by spurious correlations across different scales. The effectiveness and merit of the proposed method have been validated through its application for spherical Shallow Water Equations (SWEs) and medium-range global weather forecasting. Our findings highlight the benefits and potential of SHNO to improve the accuracy of long-term prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

XiHe: A Data-Driven Model for Global Ocean Eddy-Resolving Forecasting

The leading operational Global Ocean Forecasting Systems (GOFSs) use physics-driven numerical forecasting models that solve the partial differential equations with expensive computation. Recently, specifically in atmosphere weather forecasting, data-driven models have demonstrated significant potential for speeding up environmental forecasting by orders of magnitude, but there is still no data-driven GOFS that matches the forecasting accuracy of the numerical GOFSs. In this paper, we propose the first data-driven 1/12{\deg} resolution global ocean eddy-resolving forecasting model named XiHe, which is established from the 25-year France Mercator Ocean International's daily GLORYS12 reanalysis data. XiHe is a hierarchical transformer-based framework coupled with two special designs. One is the land-ocean mask mechanism for focusing exclusively on the global ocean circulation. The other is the ocean-specific block for effectively capturing both local ocean information and global teleconnection. Extensive experiments are conducted under satellite observations, in situ observations, and the IV-TT Class 4 evaluation framework of the world's leading operational GOFSs from January 2019 to December 2020. The results demonstrate that XiHe achieves stronger forecast performance in all testing variables than existing leading operational numerical GOFSs including Mercator Ocean Physical SYstem (PSY4), Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS), BLUElinK OceanMAPS (BLK), and Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM). Particularly, the accuracy of ocean current forecasting of XiHe out to 60 days is even better than that of PSY4 in just 10 days. Additionally, XiHe is able to forecast the large-scale circulation and the mesoscale eddies. Furthermore, it can make a 10-day forecast in only 0.35 seconds, which accelerates the forecast speed by thousands of times compared to the traditional numerical GOFSs.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

A Local Similarity-Preserving Framework for Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction with Neural Networks

Real-world data usually have high dimensionality and it is important to mitigate the curse of dimensionality. High-dimensional data are usually in a coherent structure and make the data in relatively small true degrees of freedom. There are global and local dimensionality reduction methods to alleviate the problem. Most of existing methods for local dimensionality reduction obtain an embedding with the eigenvalue or singular value decomposition, where the computational complexities are very high for a large amount of data. Here we propose a novel local nonlinear approach named Vec2vec for general purpose dimensionality reduction, which generalizes recent advancements in embedding representation learning of words to dimensionality reduction of matrices. It obtains the nonlinear embedding using a neural network with only one hidden layer to reduce the computational complexity. To train the neural network, we build the neighborhood similarity graph of a matrix and define the context of data points by exploiting the random walk properties. Experiments demenstrate that Vec2vec is more efficient than several state-of-the-art local dimensionality reduction methods in a large number of high-dimensional data. Extensive experiments of data classification and clustering on eight real datasets show that Vec2vec is better than several classical dimensionality reduction methods in the statistical hypothesis test, and it is competitive with recently developed state-of-the-art UMAP.

cs.LG↗