arXiv subjects

Kairui Feng

Publications and source records attributed to Kairui Feng.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Robust Optimization Under Objective Functional Uncertainty

This paper proposes a new robust optimization (RO) formulation namely the RO under objective functional uncertainty (ObRO). The ObRO adopts a min-max structure where the inner problem finds the worst-case objective function in a continuous function space to maximize the cost, and the outer problem finds the optimal decision in a Euclidean space to minimize the cost. A solution algorithm is designed to alternately generate the worst-case objective function at the current decision and the optimal decision for the current collection of objective functions. Using operator theory, we prove that this algorithm converges to the defined ``semi-global'' saddle point of the ObRO problem. In addition, we propose a numerical solver based on the piece-wise linearization (PWL) approximation of objective functions. The PWL approximate problem is proved to be numerically consistent with the original ObRO problem. The obtained results are applied to the degradation-aware battery charging scheduling in distribution networks.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

The Evolution of Eco-routing under Population Growth: Evidence from Six U.S. Cities

Rapid urban population growth drives car travel demand, increasing transport carbon emissions and posing a critical challenge to sustainable development. Although existing studies have demonstrated that eco-routing can reduce individual emissions, research gaps remain. On the one hand, such personal reductions have a negligible impact on overall emissions, and cannot be simply aggregated to capture the complex effects of large-scale eco-routing. On the other hand, under population growth, the long-term effectiveness of eco-routing, as well as the evolution of its efficiency and traveler route choice, remain underexplored. To address these limitations, this study proposes Time-Only and Time-Carbon user equilibrium (UE) models, integrates them with a demand forecasting method for simulating future network traffic, and designs multi-dimensional metrics to characterize urban dynamics. Using real-world road networks, commuting origin-destination (OD) demand, and population projections under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for six representative U.S. cities as a case study, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of urban dynamics across different routing strategies and population sizes. The results reveal that while eco-routing mitigates total emissions, emissions in most cities scale superlinearly with population, a scaling order that remains invariant regardless of routing and construction strategies. Moreover, under population growth, travelers using eco-routing tend to increasingly select shorter routes, giving rise to carbon bottlenecks. A strategy of targeted capacity expansion on these critical bottlenecks (0.46% of links) significantly reduces both emissions (3%) and travel time (28%) without compromising eco-routing efficiency. This study provides a foundation for formulating low-carbon urban transport planning and emission reduction policies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Urban Congestion Patterns under High Electric Vehicle Penetration: A Case Study of 10 U.S. Cities

With the global energy transition and the rapid penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), the widening travel cost gap between EVs and gasoline vehicles (GVs) increasingly affects commuters' route choices and may reshape urban congestion patterns. Existing research remains in its preliminary exploratory phase. On the one hand, multi-class models do not account for fixed user class scenarios, which may not align with actual commuters; on the other hand, there is a lack of systematic quantitative analysis based on real-world complex road networks across multiple cities. As a result, the congestion effects induced by heterogeneous GV-EV cost structures may be mischaracterized or substantially underestimated. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a multi-user equilibrium (MUE) assignment model for mixed GV-EV traffic, constructs a dual algorithm with convergence guarantees, and designs multi-dimensional evaluation metrics for congestion patterns. Using 10 representative U.S. cities as a case study, this research explores the evolution trends of traffic congestion under different EV penetration scenarios based on real city-level road networks and block-level commuter origin-destination (OD) demand. The results show that full EV penetration reduces average system travel time by 2.27%--10.78% across the 10 cities, with New Orleans achieving the largest reduction (10.78%) and San Francisco the smallest (2.27%), but the effectiveness of alleviating congestion exhibits urban heterogeneity. Moreover, for cities with sufficient network redundancy, benefits are primarily concentrated during the low to medium EV penetration stage (0-0.5), though cities with topological constraints (e.g., San Francisco) show more limited improvements throughout all penetration levels. This paper can provide a foundation for formulating differentiated urban planning and congestion management policies.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Data-driven solar forecasting enables near-optimal economic decisions

Solar energy adoption is critical to achieving net-zero emissions. However, it remains difficult for many industrial and commercial actors to decide on whether they should adopt distributed solar-battery systems, which is largely due to the unavailability of fast, low-cost, and high-resolution irradiance forecasts. Here, we present SunCastNet, a lightweight data-driven forecasting system that provides 0.05$^\circ$, 10-minute resolution predictions of surface solar radiation downwards (SSRD) up to 7 days ahead. SunCastNet, coupled with reinforcement learning (RL) for battery scheduling, reduces operational regret by 76--93\% compared to robust decision making (RDM). In 25-year investment backtests, it enables up to five of ten high-emitting industrial sectors per region to cross the commercial viability threshold of 12\% Internal Rate of Return (IRR). These results show that high-resolution, long-horizon solar forecasts can directly translate into measurable economic gains, supporting near-optimal energy operations and accelerating renewable deployment.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

FastAvatar: Towards Unified and Fast 3D Avatar Reconstruction with Large Gaussian Reconstruction Transformers

Despite significant progress in 3D avatar reconstruction, it still faces challenges such as high time complexity, sensitivity to data quality, and low data utilization. We propose FastAvatar, a feedforward 3D avatar framework capable of flexibly leveraging diverse daily recordings (e.g., a single image, multi-view observations, or monocular video) to reconstruct a high-quality 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) model within seconds, using only a single unified model. The core of FastAvatar is a Large Gaussian Reconstruction Transformer (LGRT) featuring three key designs: First, a 3DGS transformer aggregating multi-frame cues while injecting initial 3D prompt to predict the corresponding registered canonical 3DGS representations; Second, multi-granular guidance encoding (camera pose, expression coefficient, head pose) mitigating animation-induced misalignment for variable-length inputs; Third, incremental Gaussian aggregation via landmark tracking and sliced fusion losses. Integrating these features, FastAvatar enables incremental reconstruction, i.e., improving quality with more observations without wasting input data as in previous works. This yields a quality-speed-tunable paradigm for highly usable 3D avatar modeling. Extensive experiments show that FastAvatar has a higher quality and highly competitive speed compared to existing methods.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Inverse Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow

The chance constrained optimal power flow (CC-OPF) essentially finds the low-cost generation dispatch scheme ensuring operational constraints are met with a specified probability, termed the security level. While the security level is a crucial input parameter, how it shapes the CC-OPF feasibility boundary has not been revealed. Changing the security level from a parameter to a decision variable, this letter proposes the inverse CC-OPF that seeks the highest feasible security level supported by the system. To efficiently solve this problem, we design a Newton-Raphson-like iteration algorithm leveraging the duality-based sensitivity analysis of an associated surrogate problem. Numerical experiments validate the proposed approach, revealing complex feasibility boundaries for security levels that underscore the importance of coordinating security levels across multiple chance constraints.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Potential Paradigm Shift in Hazard Risk Management: AI-Based Weather Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Hazards

The advents of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven models marks a paradigm shift in risk management strategies for meteorological hazards. This study specifically employs tropical cyclones (TCs) as a focal example. We engineer a perturbation-based method to produce ensemble forecasts using the advanced Pangu AI weather model. Unlike traditional approaches that often generate fewer than 20 scenarios from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations for one event, our method facilitates the rapid nature of AI-driven model to create thousands of scenarios. We offer open-source access to our model and evaluate its effectiveness through retrospective case studies of significant TC events: Hurricane Irma (2017), Typhoon Mangkhut (2018), and TC Debbie (2017), affecting regions across North America, East Asia, and Australia. Our findings indicate that the AI-generated ensemble forecasts align closely with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble predictions up to seven days prior to landfall. This approach could substantially enhance the effectiveness of weather forecast-driven risk analysis and management, providing unprecedented operational speed, user-friendliness, and global applicability.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Hazard resistance-based spatiotemporal risk analysis for distribution network outages during hurricanes

Blackouts in recent decades show an increasing prevalence of power outages due to extreme weather events such as hurricanes. Precisely assessing the spatiotemporal outages in distribution networks, the most vulnerable part of power systems, is critical to enhance power system resilience. The Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) simulation method is widely used for spatiotemporal risk analysis of power systems during extreme weather hazards. However, it is found here that the SMC method can lead to large errors by directly applying the fragility function or failure probability of system components in time-sequential analysis, particularly overestimating damages under evolving hazards with high-frequency sampling. To address this issue, a novel hazard resistance-based spatiotemporal risk analysis (HRSRA) method is proposed. This method converts the time-varying failure probability of a component into a hazard resistance as a time-invariant value during the simulation of evolving hazards. The proposed HRSRA provides an adaptive framework for incorporating high-spatiotemporal-resolution meteorology models into power outage simulations. By leveraging the geographic information system data of the power system and a physics-based hurricane wind field model, the superiority of the proposed method is validated using real-world time-series power outage data from Puerto Rico during Hurricane Fiona 2022.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

RainNet: A Large-Scale Imagery Dataset and Benchmark for Spatial Precipitation Downscaling

AI-for-science approaches have been applied to solve scientific problems (e.g., nuclear fusion, ecology, genomics, meteorology) and have achieved highly promising results. Spatial precipitation downscaling is one of the most important meteorological problem and urgently requires the participation of AI. However, the lack of a well-organized and annotated large-scale dataset hinders the training and verification of more effective and advancing deep-learning models for precipitation downscaling. To alleviate these obstacles, we present the first large-scale spatial precipitation downscaling dataset named RainNet, which contains more than $62,400$ pairs of high-quality low/high-resolution precipitation maps for over $17$ years, ready to help the evolution of deep learning models in precipitation downscaling. Specifically, the precipitation maps carefully collected in RainNet cover various meteorological phenomena (e.g., hurricane, squall), which is of great help to improve the model generalization ability. In addition, the map pairs in RainNet are organized in the form of image sequences ($720$ maps per month or 1 map/hour), showing complex physical properties, e.g., temporal misalignment, temporal sparse, and fluid properties. Furthermore, two deep-learning-oriented metrics are specifically introduced to evaluate or verify the comprehensive performance of the trained model (e.g., prediction maps reconstruction accuracy). To illustrate the applications of RainNet, 14 state-of-the-art models, including deep models and traditional approaches, are evaluated. To fully explore potential downscaling solutions, we propose an implicit physical estimation benchmark framework to learn the above characteristics. Extensive experiments demonstrate the value of RainNet in training and evaluating downscaling models. Our dataset is available at https://neuralchen.github.io/RainNet/.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Adversarial Diffusion Attacks on Graph-based Traffic Prediction Models

Real-time traffic prediction models play a pivotal role in smart mobility systems and have been widely used in route guidance, emerging mobility services, and advanced traffic management systems. With the availability of massive traffic data, neural network-based deep learning methods, especially the graph convolutional networks (GCN) have demonstrated outstanding performance in mining spatio-temporal information and achieving high prediction accuracy. Recent studies reveal the vulnerability of GCN under adversarial attacks, while there is a lack of studies to understand the vulnerability issues of the GCN-based traffic prediction models. Given this, this paper proposes a new task -- diffusion attack, to study the robustness of GCN-based traffic prediction models. The diffusion attack aims to select and attack a small set of nodes to degrade the performance of the entire prediction model. To conduct the diffusion attack, we propose a novel attack algorithm, which consists of two major components: 1) approximating the gradient of the black-box prediction model with Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA); 2) adapting the knapsack greedy algorithm to select the attack nodes. The proposed algorithm is examined with three GCN-based traffic prediction models: St-Gcn, T-Gcn, and A3t-Gcn on two cities. The proposed algorithm demonstrates high efficiency in the adversarial attack tasks under various scenarios, and it can still generate adversarial samples under the drop regularization such as DropOut, DropNode, and DropEdge. The research outcomes could help to improve the robustness of the GCN-based traffic prediction models and better protect the smart mobility systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/LYZ98/Adversarial-Diffusion-Attacks-on-Graph-based-Traffic-Prediction-Models

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Hurricane-blackout-heatwave Compound Hazard Risk and Resilience in a Changing Climate

Hurricanes have caused power outages and blackouts, affecting millions of customers and inducing severe social and economic impacts. The impacts of hurricane-caused blackouts may worsen due to increased heat extremes and possibly increased hurricanes under climate change. We apply hurricane and heatwave projections with power outage and recovery process analysis to investigate how the emerging hurricane-blackout-heatwave compound hazard may vary in a changing climate, for Harris County in Texas (including major part of Houston City) as an example. We find that, under the high-emissions scenario RCP8.5, the expected percent of customers experiencing at least one longer-than-5-day hurricane-induced power outage in a 20-year period would increase significantly from 14% at the end of the 20th century to 44% at the end of the 21st century in Harris County. The expected percent of customers who may experience at least one longer-than-5-day heatwave without power (to provide air conditioning) would increase alarmingly, from 0.8% to 15.5%. These increases of risk may be largely avoided if the climate is well controlled under the stringent mitigation scenario RCP2.6. We also reveal that a moderate enhancement of critical sectors of the distribution network can significantly improve the resilience of the entire power grid and mitigate the risk of the future compound hazard. Together these findings suggest that, in addition to climate mitigation, climate adaptation actions are urgently needed to improve the resilience of coastal power systems.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Modeling Epidemic Spreading through Public Transit using Time-Varying Encounter Network

Passenger contact in public transit (PT) networks can be a key mediate in the spreading of infectious diseases. This paper proposes a time-varying weighted PT encounter network to model the spreading of infectious diseases through the PT systems. Social activity contacts at both local and global levels are also considered. We select the epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a case study along with smart card data from Singapore to illustrate the model at the metropolitan level. A scalable and lightweight theoretical framework is derived to capture the time-varying and heterogeneous network structures, which enables to solve the problem at the whole population level with low computational costs. Different control policies from both the public health side and the transportation side are evaluated. We find that people's preventative behavior is one of the most effective measures to control the spreading of epidemics. From the transportation side, partial closure of bus routes helps to slow down but cannot fully contain the spreading of epidemics. Identifying "influential passengers" using the smart card data and isolating them at an early stage can also effectively reduce the epidemic spreading.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Post-earthquake modelling of transportation networks using an agent-based model

Surface transportation systems are an essential part of urban transportation infrastructure and are susceptible to damage from earthquakes. This damage, along with the lack of prior warning of earthquake events, may lead to severe and unexpected disruption of normal traffic patterns, which may seriously impair post-disaster response. Accordingly, it is important to understand and model the performance of urban transportation systems immediately following an earthquake, to evaluate its capability to support emergency response, e.g., the movement of firefighters, search and rescue teams and medical personnel, and the transportation of injured people to emergency treatment facilities. For this purpose, a scenario-based methodology is developed to model the performance of a transportation network immediately following an earthquake using an agent-based model. This methodology accounts for the abrupt changes in destination, irrational behavior of drivers, unavailability of traffic information and the impairment to traffic capacity due to bridge damage and building debris. An illustration using the road network of Tangshan City, China shows that the method can capture the traffic flow characteristics immediately after an earthquake and can determine the capability of the transportation network to transfer injured people to hospitals considering the above factors. Thus, it can provide rational support for evaluating the performance of the surface transportation system under immediate post-disaster emergency conditions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

A reconstruction of Florida Traffic Flow During Hurricane Irma (2017)

Recent Hurricane Irma (2017) created the most extensive scale of evacuation in Florida's history, involving about 6.5 million people on mandatory evacuation order and 4 million evacuation vehicles. To understand the hurricane evacuation process, the spatial and temporal evolution of the traffic flow is a critical piece of information, but it is usually not fully observed. Based on the game theory, this paper employs the available traffic observation on main highways (20 cameras; including parts of Route 1, 27 and I-75, 95, 4,10) during Irma to reconstruct the traffic flow in Florida during Irma. The model is validated with self-reported twitters. The traffic reconstruction estimates the traffic demand (about 4 million cars in total) and the temporal and spatial distribution of congestion during the evacuation. The results compare well with available information from news reports and Twitter records. The reconstructed data can be used to analyze hurricane evacuation decisions and travel behavior.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Rapid Assessment of Damaged Homes in the Florida Keys after Hurricane Irma

On September 10, 2017, Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys and caused significant damage. Informed by hydrodynamic storm surge and wave modeling and post-storm satellite imagery, a rapid damage survey was soon conducted for 1600+ residential buildings in Big Pine Key and Marathon. Damage categorizations and statistical analysis reveal distinct factors governing damage at these two locations. The distance from the coast is significant for the damage in Big Pine Key, as severely damaged buildings were located near narrow waterways connected to the ocean. Building type and size are critical in Marathon, highlighted by the near-complete destruction of trailer communities there. These observations raise issues of affordability and equity that need consideration in damage recovery and rebuilding for resilience.

stat.AP↗