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Kaiwei Liu

Publications and source records attributed to Kaiwei Liu.

21 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Neural Information Squeezer for Causal Emergence

The classic studies of causal emergence have revealed that in some Markovian dynamical systems, far stronger causal connections can be found on the higher-level descriptions than the lower-level of the same systems if we coarse-grain the system states in an appropriate way. However, identifying this emergent causality from the data is still a hard problem that has not been solved because the correct coarse-graining strategy can not be found easily. This paper proposes a general machine learning framework called Neural Information Squeezer to automatically extract the effective coarse-graining strategy and the macro-state dynamics, as well as identify causal emergence directly from the time series data. By decomposing a coarse-graining operation into two processes: information conversion and information dropping out, we can not only exactly control the width of the information channel, but also can derive some important properties analytically including the exact expression of the effective information of a macro-dynamics. We also show how our framework can extract the dynamics on different levels and identify causal emergence from the data on several exampled systems.

cs.LG↗

Expectation-Maximizing Network Reconstruction and MostApplicable Network Types Based on Binary Time Series Data

Based on the binary time series data of social infection dynamics, we propose a general framework to reconstruct 2-simplex complexes with two-body and three-body interactions by combining the maximum likelihood estimation in statistical inference and introducing the expectation maximization. In order to improve the code running efficiency, the whole algorithm adopts vectorization expression. Through the inference of maximum likelihood estimation, the vectorization expression of the edge existence probability can be obtained, and through the probability matrix, the adjacency matrix of the network can be estimated. We apply a two-step scheme to improve the effectiveness of network reconstruction while reducing the amount of computation significantly. The framework has been tested on different types of complex networks. Among them, four kinds of networks can obtain high reconstruction effectiveness. Besides, we study the influence of noise data or random interference and prove the robustness of the framework, then the effects of two kinds of hyper-parameters on the experimental results are tested. Finally, we analyze which type of network is more suitable for this framework, and propose methods to improve the effectiveness of the experimental results.

physics.soc-ph↗

The E-Bayesian Estimation and its E-MSE of Lomax distribution under different loss functions

This paper studies the E-Bayesian (expectation of the Bayesian estimation) estimation of the parameter of Lomax distribution based on different loss functions. Under different loss functions, we calculate the Bayesian estimation of the parameter and then calculate the expectation of the estimated value to get the E-Bayesian estimation. To measure the estimated error, the E-MSE (expected mean squared error) is introduced. And the formulas of E-Bayesian estimation and E-MSE are given. By applying Markov Chain Monte Carlo technology, we analyze the performances of the proposed methods. Results are compared on the basis of E-MSE. Then, cases of samples in real data sets are presented for illustration. In order to test whether the Lomax distribution can be used in analyzing the datasets, Kolmogorov Smirnov tests are conducted. Using real data, we can get the maximum likelihood estimation at the same time and compare it with E-Bayesian estimation. At last, we get the results of the comparison between Bayesian and E-Bayesian estimation methods under three different loss functions.

stat.ME↗