arXiv subjects

Kaiyan Cui

Publications and source records attributed to Kaiyan Cui.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Signed Matrix Thinning and Projection Estimation for Integer-Valued Autoregressive Models

Integer-valued time series are ubiquitous in fields such as finance, economics, and epidemiology. As spatiotemporal data structures in these domains grow increasingly complex and high-dimensional, the matrix integer-valued autoregressive (MINAR) model efficiently captures row-column cross-correlations to reduce dimensionality. However, it fundamentally fails to accommodate negative values, which is a critical flaw for analyzing real-world differenced data or financial tick fluctuations. To bridge this theoretical and practical gap, this paper introduces the Z-MINAR model, a novel matrix autoregressive framework defined on the full integer domain (Z). By pioneering a signed matrix thinning operator and utilizing an extended poisson distribution for the innovations, the Z-MINAR model elegantly handles both positive and negative integers while strictly preserving the crucial topological interactions inherent in matrix data. Furthermore, we employ a projection-based conditional least squares estimation procedure and rigorously establish the model's stationarity, causality, and asymptotic normality. Extensive simulations demonstrate the superior estimation accuracy, robustness, and adaptability of Z-MINAR over existing benchmark models. Finally, an empirical application focusing on crime count variations across different urban regions confirms the model's practical efficacy in uncovering dynamic spatiotemporal dependence structures in Z-valued matrix time series.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Revisiting-Aware In-Orbit Edge Computing for Earth Observation

Typically, Earth observation satellites follow a rule of revisiting cycle to periodically pass over the same area of the Earth at regular intervals, which is jointly determined by their orbital properties (e.g., eccentricity, inclination) and instrument characteristics (e.g., off-nadir pointing and swath capabilities). However, we have observed delays in perceived revisiting cycles where limited satellite downlink bandwidth allows only partial images to be delivered, pushing back the timeliness of the full set of data, which we term as revisiting cycle delay. In this paper, we present a revisiting-aware in-orbit edge computing framework for Earth observation termed Stride. Stride leverages the unique orbital revisiting properties to afford historical reference revisiting images onboard, and exploits the inherent temporal redundancy in the revisiting imagery to transmit only the Regions of Interest (RoIs). Specifically, Stride comprises a mono- and multi-temporal cloud indicator to alleviate cloud contamination, a coarse-to-fine reference selector for orbit deviation correction, and an ensemble-local change detector to address inter-band complexities and pixel-level perturbations. Experiments on a Flat-Sat testbed and a constellation simulator demonstrate Stride improves the Revisiting Imagery Delivery (RID) score by up to 4.55X, decreases the connectivity latency by 5.02X, and enlarges the mapping coverage by 2.56X, yielding state-of-the-art performance.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2026

Additive Matrix Integer-Valued Autoregressive Model

Contemporary data-driven and technology-integrated era, various matrix-valued integer-valued time series, such as cross-regional crime statistics, multi-category sales records, and network traffic matrices, exhibit high dimensionality, complex structures, and strong row-column intertwined dependencies. Although the existing matrix integer-valued autoregressive (MINAR) model provides a framework that directly handles matrix data and captures bidirectional row-column dependencies, it suffers from limited interpretability and inflexible structural representation, as its parameters often lack clear empirical meaning and the model cannot separately distinguish the effects arising from rows, columns, and lagged dynamics. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper proposes the additive matrix integer-valued autoregressive (Add-MINAR) model. By introducing an additive structure that explicitly decomposes the matrix response into row effects, column effects, and lagged effects, the proposed model not only preserves the matrix-valued nature but also significantly enhances parameter interpretability and structural flexibility. Two estimation methods, namely projection estimation and iterative conditional least squares estimation, are developed for parameter identification and inference, and their asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality, are rigorously established. Simulation results show that the iterative conditional least squares estimator generally outperforms the projection estimator in most scenarios. Empirical analysis of Chicago crime data further demonstrates that the Add-MINAR model achieves superior in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting performance compared to benchmark models such as MINAR, making it particularly suitable for practical applications with explicit row-column interaction features.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Reduce-Rank Matrix Integer-Valued Autoregressive Model

Integer-valued time series are widely present in many fields, such as finance, economics, disease transmission, and traffic flow. With data dimensions surging, the traditional multivariate generalized integer autoregressive (MGINAR) model faces parameter overload, poor interpretability, and structural information loss. Matrix integer-valued autoregression (MINAR) model captures row-column cross-correlations and reduces the number of parameters to be estimated. However, further growth in dimensionality causes data redundancy, which degrades the MINAR model's performance and increases the number of parameters. To solve the limitations of the MINAR model described above, this paper proposes the reduced-rank matrix integer-valued autoregression (RRMINAR) model. Reducing rank is achieved by adding low-rank constraints to the coefficient matrices in the MINAR model, leading to RRMINAR reducing parameter quantity while incorporating matrix structure information. We develop an iterative conditional least squares estimation and analyze its asymptotic properties. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed RRMINAR model exhibits more robust parameter estimation and higher prediction accuracy than MGINAR and MINAR models when the data structure is low-rank. Empirical analysis using criminal data validates the proposed RRMINAR model's effectiveness and uncovers structural temporal-spatial information in criminal behavior.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

FedConv: A Learning-on-Model Paradigm for Heterogeneous Federated Clients

Federated Learning (FL) facilitates collaborative training of a shared global model without exposing clients' private data. In practical FL systems, clients (e.g., edge servers, smartphones, and wearables) typically have disparate system resources. Conventional FL, however, adopts a one-size-fits-all solution, where a homogeneous large global model is transmitted to and trained on each client, resulting in an overwhelming workload for less capable clients and starvation for other clients. To address this issue, we propose FedConv, a client-friendly FL framework, which minimizes the computation and memory burden on resource-constrained clients by providing heterogeneous customized sub-models. FedConv features a novel learning-on-model paradigm that learns the parameters of the heterogeneous sub-models via convolutional compression. Unlike traditional compression methods, the compressed models in FedConv can be directly trained on clients without decompression. To aggregate the heterogeneous sub-models, we propose transposed convolutional dilation to convert them back to large models with a unified size while retaining personalized information from clients. The compression and dilation processes, transparent to clients, are optimized on the server leveraging a small public dataset. Extensive experiments on six datasets demonstrate that FedConv outperforms state-of-the-art FL systems in terms of model accuracy (by more than 35% on average), computation and communication overhead (with 33% and 25% reduction, respectively).

cs.LG↗