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Kameshwar Poolla

Publications and source records attributed to Kameshwar Poolla.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Semantic segmentation of longitudinal thermal images for identification of hot and cool spots in urban areas

This work presents the analysis of semantically segmented, longitudinally, and spatially rich thermal images collected at the neighborhood scale to identify hot and cool spots in urban areas. An infrared observatory was operated over a few months to collect thermal images of different types of buildings on the educational campus of the National University of Singapore. A subset of the thermal image dataset was used to train state-of-the-art deep learning models to segment various urban features such as buildings, vegetation, sky, and roads. It was observed that the U-Net segmentation model with `resnet34' CNN backbone has the highest mIoU score of 0.99 on the test dataset, compared to other models such as DeepLabV3, DeeplabV3+, FPN, and PSPnet. The masks generated using the segmentation models were then used to extract the temperature from thermal images and correct for differences in the emissivity of various urban features. Further, various statistical measure of the temperature extracted using the predicted segmentation masks is shown to closely match the temperature extracted using the ground truth masks. Finally, the masks were used to identify hot and cool spots in the urban feature at various instances of time. This forms one of the very few studies demonstrating the automated analysis of thermal images, which can be of potential use to urban planners for devising mitigation strategies for reducing the urban heat island (UHI) effect, improving building energy efficiency, and maximizing outdoor thermal comfort.

cs.CV

District-scale surface temperatures generated from high-resolution longitudinal thermal infrared images

The paper describes a dataset that was collected by infrared thermography, which is a non-contact, non-intrusive technique to collect data and analyze the built environment in various aspects. While most studies focus on the city and building scales, the rooftop observatory provides high temporal and spatial resolution observations with dynamic interactions on the district scale. The rooftop infrared thermography observatory with a multi-modal platform that is capable of assessing a wide range of dynamic processes in urban systems was deployed in Singapore. It was placed on the top of two buildings that overlook the outdoor context of the campus of the National University of Singapore. The platform collects remote sensing data from tropical areas on a temporal scale, allowing users to determine the temperature trend of individual features such as buildings, roads, and vegetation. The dataset includes 1,365,921 thermal images collected on average at approximately 10 seconds intervals from two locations during ten months.

cs.CV

Mobile Energy Storage in Power Network: Marginal Value and Optimal Operation

This paper examines the marginal value of mobile energy storage, i.e., energy storage units that can be efficiently relocated to other locations in the power network. In particular, we formulate and analyze the joint problem for operating the power grid and a fleet of mobile storage units. We use two different storage models: rapid storage, which disregards travel time and power constraints, and general storage, which incorporates them. By explicitly connecting the marginal value of mobile storage to locational marginal prices (LMPs), we propose efficient algorithms that only use LMPs and transportation costs to optimize the relocation trajectories of the mobile storage units. Furthermore, we provide examples and conditions under which the marginal value of mobile storage is strictly higher, equal to, or strictly lower than the sum of marginal value of corresponding stationary storage units and wires. We also propose faster algorithms to approximate the optimal operation and relocation for our general mobile storage model, and illustrate our results with simulations of an passenger EV and a heavy-duty electric truck in the PJM territory.

eess.SY

Electric Vehicle Battery Sharing Game for Mobile Energy Storage Provision in Power Networks

Electric vehicles (EVs) equipped with a bidirectional charger can provide valuable grid services as mobile energy storage. However, proper financial incentives need to be in place to enlist EV drivers to provide services to the grid. In this paper, we consider two types of EV drivers who may be willing to provide mobile storage service using their EVs: commuters taking a fixed route, and on-demand EV drivers who receive incentives from a transportation network company (TNC) and are willing to take any route. We model the behavior of each type of driver using game theoretic methods, and characterize the Nash equilibrium (NE) of an EV battery sharing game where each EV driver withdraws power from the grid to charge its EV battery at the origin of a route, travels from the origin to the destination, and then discharges power back to the grid at the destination of the route. The driver earns a payoff that depends on the participation of other drivers and power network conditions. We characterize the NE in three situations: when there are only commuters, when there are only on-demand TNC drivers, and when the two groups of drivers co-exist. In particular, we show that the equilibrium outcome supports the social welfare in each of these three cases.

eess.SY

Longitudinal thermal imaging for scalable non-residential HVAC and occupant behaviour characterization

This work presents a study on the characterization of the air-conditioning (AC) usage pattern of non-residential buildings from thermal images collected from an urban-scale infrared (IR) observatory. To achieve this first, an image processing scheme, for cleaning and extraction of the temperature time series from the thermal images is implemented. To test the accuracy of the thermal measurements using IR camera, the extracted temperature is compared against the ground truth surface temperature measurements. It is observed that the detrended thermal measurements match well with the ground truth surface temperature measurements. Subsequently, the operational pattern of the water-cooled systems and window AC units are extracted from the analysis of the thermal signature. It is observed that for the water-cooled system, the difference between the rate of change of the window and wall can be used to extract the operational pattern. While, in the case of the window AC units, wavelet transform of the AC unit temperature is used to extract the frequency and time domain information of the AC unit operation. The results of the analysis are compared against the indoor temperature sensors installed in the office spaces of the building. It is realized that the accuracy in the prediction of the operational pattern is highest between 8 pm to 10 am, and it reduces during the day because of solar radiation and high daytime temperature. Subsequently, a characterization study is conducted for eight window/split AC units from the thermal image collected during the nighttime. This forms one of the first studies on the operational behavior of HVAC systems for non-residential buildings using the longitudinal thermal imaging technique. The output from this study can be used to better understand the operational and occupant behavior, without requiring to deploy a large array of sensors in the building space.

cs.CV

Asset Participation and Aggregation in Incentive-Based Demand Response Programs

In order to manage peak-grid events, utilities run incentive-based demand response (DR) programs in which they offer an incentive to assets who promise to curtail power consumption, and impose penalties if they fail to do so. We develop a probabilistic model for the curtailment capability of these assets, and use it to derive analytic expressions for the optimal participation (i.e., promised curtailment) and profitability from the DR asset perspective. We also investigate the effects of risk-aversion and curtailment uncertainty on both promised curtailment and profit. We use the probabilistic model to evaluate the benefits of forming asset aggregations for participation in DR programs, and develop a numerical test to estimate asset complementarity. We illustrate our results using load data from commercial office buildings.

eess.SY

Spatial Pricing in Ride-Sourcing Markets under a Congestion Charge

This paper studies the optimal spatial pricing for a ride-sourcing platform subject to a congestion charge. The platform determines the ride prices over the transportation network to maximize its profit, while the regulatory agency imposes the congestion charge to reduce traffic congestion in the urban core. A network economic equilibrium model is proposed to capture the intimate interactions among passenger demand, driver supply, passenger and driver waiting times, platform pricing, vehicle repositioning and flow balance over the transportation network. The overall optimal pricing problem is cast as a non-convex program. An algorithm is proposed to approximately compute its optimal solution, and a tight upper bound is established to evaluate its performance loss with respect to the globally optimal solution. Using the proposed model, we compare the impacts of three forms of congestion charge: (a) a one-directional cordon charge on ride-sourcing vehicles that enter the congestion area; (b) a bi-directional cordon charge on ride-sourcing vehicles that enter or exit the congestion area; (c) a trip-based congestion charge on all ride-sourcing trips. We show that the one-directional congestion charge not only reduces the ride-sourcing traffic in the congestion area, but also reduces the travel cost outside the congestion zone and benefits passengers in these underserved areas. We further show that compared to other congestion charges, the one-directional cordon charge is more effective in congestion mitigation: to achieve the same congestion-mitigation target, it imposes a smaller cost on passengers, drivers, and the platform. On the other hand, compared with the other charges, the trip-based congestion charge is more effective in revenue-raising: to raise the same tax revenue, it leads to a smaller loss to passengers, drivers, and the platform.

math.OC

Impact of Congestion Charge and Minimum Wage on TNCs: A Case Study for San Francisco

This paper describes the impact on transportation network companies (TNCs) of the imposition of a congestion charge and a driver minimum wage. The impact is assessed using a market equilibrium model to calculate the changes in the number of passenger trips and trip fare, number of drivers employed, the TNC platform profit, the number of TNC vehicles, and city revenue. Two charges are considered: (a) a charge per TNC trip similar to an excise tax, and (b) a charge per vehicle operating hour (whether or not it has a passenger) similar to a road tax. Both charges reduce the number of TNC trips, but this reduction is limited by the wage floor, and the number of TNC vehicles reduced is not significant. The time-based charge is preferable to the trip-based charge since, by penalizing idle vehicle time, the former increases vehicle occupancy. In a case study for San Francisco, the time-based charge is found to be Pareto superior to the trip-based charge as it yields higher passenger surplus, higher platform profits, and higher tax revenue for the city.

econ.EM

Off-Street Parking for TNC Vehicles to Reduce Cruising Traffic

This paper considers off-street parking for the cruising vehicles of transportation network companies (TNCs) to reduce the traffic congestion. We propose a novel business that integrates the shared parking service into the TNC platform. In the proposed model, the platform (a) provides interfaces that connect passengers, drivers and garage operators (commercial or private garages); (b) determines the ride fare, driver payment, and parking rates; (c) matches passengers to TNC vehicles for ride-hailing services; and (d) matches vacant TNC vehicles to unoccupied parking garages to reduce the cruising cost. A queuing-theoretic model is proposed to capture the matching process of passengers, drivers, and parking garages. A market-equilibrium model is developed to capture the incentives of the passengers, drivers, and garage operators. An optimization-based model is formulated to capture the optimal pricing of the TNC platform. Through a realistic case study, we show that the proposed business model will offer a Pareto improvement that benefits all stakeholders, which leads to higher passenger surplus, higher drivers surplus, higher garage operator surplus, higher platform profit, and reduced traffic congestion.

math.OC

Are Ensemble Classifiers Powerful Enough for the Detection and Diagnosis of Intermediate-Severity Faults?

Intermediate-Severity (IS) faults present milder symptoms compared to severe faults, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of IS fault examples in the training data can pose severe risks to Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these faults can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. Ensemble models are widely applied in ML and are considered promising methods for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We identify common pitfalls in these models through extensive experiments with several popular ensemble models on two real-world datasets. Then, we discuss how to design more effective ensemble models for detecting and diagnosing IS faults.

cs.LG

EnergyStar++: Towards more accurate and explanatory building energy benchmarking

Building energy performance benchmarking has been adopted widely in the USA and Canada through the Energy Star Portfolio Manager platform. Building operations and energy management professionals have long used a simple 1-100 score to understand how their building compares to its peers. This single number is easy to use, but is created by inaccurate linear regression (MLR) models. This paper proposes a methodology that enhances the existing Energy Star calculation method by increasing accuracy and providing additional model output processing to help explain why a building is achieving a certain score. We propose and test two new prediction models: multiple linear regression with feature interactions (MLRi) and gradient boosted trees (GBT). Both models have better average accuracy than the baseline Energy Star models. The third order MLRi and GBT models achieve 4.9% and 24.9% increase in adjusted R2, respectively, and 7.0% and 13.7% decrease in normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE), respectively, on average than MLR models for six building types. Even more importantly, a set of techniques is developed to help determine which factors most influence the score using SHAP values. The SHAP force visualization in particular offers an accessible overview of the aspects of the building that influence the score that non-technical users can readily interpret. This methodology is tested on the 2012 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS)(1,812 buildings) and public data sets from the energy disclosure programs of New York City (11,131 buildings) and Seattle (2,073 buildings).

stat.AP

Learning Robustness with Bounded Failure: An Iterative MPC Approach

We propose an approach to design a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for constrained Linear Time Invariant systems performing an iterative task. The system is subject to an additive disturbance, and the goal is to learn to satisfy state and input constraints robustly. Using disturbance measurements after each iteration, we construct Confidence Support sets, which contain the true support of the disturbance distribution with a given probability. As more data is collected, the Confidence Supports converge to the true support of the disturbance. This enables design of an MPC controller that avoids conservative estimate of the disturbance support, while simultaneously bounding the probability of constraint violation. The efficacy of the proposed approach is then demonstrated with a detailed numerical example.

eess.SY

A Queuing Approach to Parking: Modeling, Verification, and Prediction

We present a queuing model of parking dynamics and a model-based prediction method to provide real-time probabilistic forecasts of future parking occupancy. The queuing model has a non-homogeneous arrival rate and time-varying service time distribution. All statistical assumptions of the model are verified using data from 29 truck parking locations, each with between 55 and 299 parking spots. For each location and each spot the data specifies the arrival and departure times of a truck, for 16 months of operation. The modeling framework presented in this paper provides empirical support for queuing models adopted in many theoretical studies and policy designs. We discuss how our framework can be used to study parking problems in different environments. Based on the queuing model, we propose two prediction methods, a microscopic method and a macroscopic method, that provide a real-time probabilistic forecast of parking occupancy for an arbitrary forecast horizon. These model-based methods convert a probabilistic forecast problem into a parameter estimation problem that can be tackled using classical estimation methods such as regressions or pure machine learning algorithms. We characterize a lower bound for an arbitrary real-time prediction algorithm. We evaluate the performance of these methods using the truck data comparing the outcomes of their implementations with other model-based and model-free methods proposed in the literature.

cs.LG

Regulating TNCs: Should Uber and Lyft Set Their Own Rules?

We evaluate the impact of three proposed regulations of transportation network companies (TNCs) like Uber, Lyft and Didi: (1) a minimum wage for drivers, (2) a cap on the number of drivers or vehicles, and (3) a per-trip congestion tax. The impact is assessed using a queuing theoretic equilibrium model which incorporates the stochastic dynamics of the app-based ride-hailing matching platform, the ride prices and driver wages established by the platform, and the incentives of passengers and drivers. We show that a floor placed under driver earnings pushes the ride-hailing platform to hire more drivers and offer more rides, at the same time that passengers enjoy faster rides and lower total cost, while platform rents are reduced. Contrary to standard economic theory, enforcing a minimum wage for drivers benefits both drivers and passengers, and promotes the efficiency of the entire system. This surprising outcome holds for almost all model parameters, and it occurs because the wage floors curbs TNC labor market power. In contrast to a wage floor, imposing a cap on the number of vehicles hurts drivers, because the platform reaps all the benefits of limiting supply. The congestion tax has the expected impact: fares increase, wages and platform revenue decrease. We also construct variants of the model to briefly discuss platform subsidy, platform competition, and autonomous vehicles.

math.OC

Optimal Resource Procurement and the Price of Causality

This paper studies the problem of procuring diverse resources in a forward market to cover a set $\bf{E}$ of uncertain demand signals $\bf{e}$. We consider two scenarios: (a) $\bf{e}$ is revealed all at once by an oracle (b) $\bf{e}$ reveals itself causally. Each scenario induces an optimal procurement cost. The ratio between these two costs is defined as the {\em price of causality}. It captures the additional cost of not knowing the future values of the uncertain demand signal. We consider two application contexts: procuring energy reserves from a forward capacity market, and purchasing virtual machine instances from a cloud service. An upper bound on the price of causality is obtained, and the exact price of causality is computed for some special cases. The algorithmic basis for all these computations is set containment linear programming. A mechanism is proposed to allocate the procurement cost to consumers who in aggregate produce the demand signal. We show that the proposed cost allocation is fair, budget-balanced, and respects the cost-causation principle. The results are validated through numerical simulations.

math.OC

Selling Demand Response Using Options

Wholesale electricity markets in many jurisdictions use a two-settlement structure: a day-ahead market for bulk power transactions and a real-time market for fine-grain supply-demand balancing. This paper explores trading demand response assets within this two-settlement market structure. We consider two approaches for trading demand response assets: (a) an intermediate spot market with contingent pricing, and (b) an over-the-counter options contract. In the first case, we characterize the competitive equilibrium of the spot market, and show that it is socially optimal. Economic orthodoxy advocates spot markets, but these require expensive infrastructure and regulatory blessing. In the second case, we characterize competitive equilibria and compare its efficiency with the idealized spot market. Options contract are private bilateral over-the-counter transactions and do not require regulatory approval. We show that the optimal social welfare is, in general, not supported. We then design optimal option prices that minimize the social welfare gap. This optimal design serves to approximate the ideal spot market for demand response using options with modest loss of efficiency. Our results are validated through numerical simulations.

eess.SY

Mechanism Design for Demand Response Programs

Demand Response (DR) programs serve to reduce the consumption of electricity at times when the supply is scarce and expensive. The utility informs the aggregator of an anticipated DR event. The aggregator calls on a subset of its pool of recruited agents to reduce their electricity use. Agents are paid for reducing their energy consumption from contractually established baselines. Baselines are counter-factual consumption estimates of the energy an agent would have consumed if they were not participating in the DR program. Baselines are used to determine payments to agents. This creates an incentive for agents to inflate their baselines. We propose a novel self-reported baseline mechanism (SRBM) where each agent reports its baseline and marginal utility. These reports are strategic and need not be truthful. Based on the reported information, the aggregator selects or calls on agents to meet the load reduction target. Called agents are paid for observed reductions from their self-reported baselines. Agents who are not called face penalties for consumption shortfalls below their baselines. The mechanism is specified by the probability with which agents are called, reward prices for called agents, and penalty prices for agents who are not called. Under SRBM, we show that truthful reporting of baseline consumption and marginal utility is a dominant strategy. Thus, SRBM eliminates the incentive for agents to inflate baselines. SRBM is assured to meet the load reduction target. SRBM is also nearly efficient since it selects agents with the smallest marginal utilities, and each called agent contributes maximally to the load reduction target. Finally, we show that SRBM is almost optimal in the metric of average cost of DR provision faced by the aggregator.

cs.GT

A One-Class Support Vector Machine Calibration Method for Time Series Change Point Detection

It is important to identify the change point of a system's health status, which usually signifies an incipient fault under development. The One-Class Support Vector Machine (OC-SVM) is a popular machine learning model for anomaly detection and hence could be used for identifying change points; however, it is sometimes difficult to obtain a good OC-SVM model that can be used on sensor measurement time series to identify the change points in system health status. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for calibrating OC-SVM models. The approach uses a heuristic search method to find a good set of input data and hyperparameters that yield a well-performing model. Our results on the C-MAPSS dataset demonstrate that OC-SVM can also achieve satisfactory accuracy in detecting change point in time series with fewer training data, compared to state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. In our case study, the OC-SVM calibrated by the proposed model is shown to be useful especially in scenarios with limited amount of training data.

cs.LG