arXiv subjects

Kamrun Mily

Publications and source records attributed to Kamrun Mily.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Crime hotspot dynamics in residential burglary models with police response

We develop and analyze mathematical models for residential burglary that incorporates police deployment through a delayed feedback mechanism. Motivated by empirical observations from publicly available crime and policing data, we extend a well-known agent-based model by introducing a dynamic police response driven by crime information that becomes available only after a finite delay. Taking the mean-field limit, we derive a coupled continuum system consisting of three partial differential equations and one ordinary differential equation describing the interactions among criminal density, environmental attractiveness, delayed crime signal, and police deployment. Linear stability analysis of homogeneous steady states reveals that response delays can destabilize otherwise stable equilibria through Hopf bifurcations. As a result, the model predicts sustained temporal oscillations and dynamically evolving crime hotspots. Numerical simulations of both the agent-based and continuum models confirm the theoretical analysis and uncover rich spatio-temporal behaviors, including moving, splitting, and merging hotspots. Through a parametric study, we investigate the roles of police density, crime information delay, and neighborhood effects in controlling stability, hotspot size, and oscillatory behavior. Our results indicate that timely access to crime data plays a more important role than police density in stabilizing crime levels.

math.DS↗

arXiv2025

A finite element framework for simulating residential burglary in realistic urban geometries

We consider a partial differential equation (PDE) model to predict residential burglary derived from a probabilistic agent-based model through a mean-field limit operation. The PDE model is a nonlinear, coupled system of two equations in two variables (attractiveness of residential sites and density of criminals), similar to the Keller-Segel model for aggregation based on chemotaxis. Unlike previous works, which applied periodic boundary conditions, we enforce boundary conditions that arise naturally from the variational formulation of the PDE problem, i.e., the starting point for the application of a finite element method. These conditions specify the value of the normal derivatives of the system variables at the boundary. For the numerical solution of the PDE problem discretized in time and space, we propose a scheme that decouples the computation of the attractiveness from the computation of the criminal density at each time step, resulting in the solution of two linear algebraic systems per iteration. Through numerous numerical tests, we demonstrate the robustness and computational efficiency of this approach. Leveraging the flexibility allowed by the finite element method, we show results for spatially heterogeneous model parameters and a realistic geometry (city of Chicago). The paper includes a discussion of future perspectives to build multiscale, 'multi-physics' models that can become a tool for the community. The robust and efficient code developed for this paper, which is shared open-source, is intended as the solid base for this broader research program.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

Data driven learning to enhance a kinetic model of distressed crowd dynamics

The mathematical modeling of crowds is complicated by the fact that crowds possess the behavioral ability to develop and adapt moving strategies in response to the context. For example, in emergency situations, people tend to alter their walking strategy in response to fear. To be able to simulate these situations, we consider a kinetic model of crowd dynamics that features the level of stress as a parameter and propose to estimate this key parameter by solving an inverse crowd dynamics problem. This paper states the mathematical problem and presents a method for its numerical solution. We show some preliminary results based on a synthetic data set, i.e., test cases where the exact stress level is known and the crowd density data are generated numerically by solving a forward crowd dynamics problem.

math.NA↗